Crude: Importance Of The 61.8% Shows Resistance at 64Crude, always came close to the important 61.8% Fib, then it turned lower, broke the channel. Resistance is at $64.
HTA1! trade ideas
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis.
And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.
Enjoy Trading ;)
potential for push down in bearish continuation 1->4 : market pushes down with number
2 buyers defeated by number 3 sellers
4->5 : we return to number 3 sellers
next?
* some bearish candles , large poc volume
if push below protects sells
* bearish 2nd degree divergence
* downtrend interest maintained with
obv trendline , buyers pushing up but
not breaking structure
I have a dream - OIl below $50I have a dream OIl below $50
since US strike on Iran OIl hit $76 per barral for several days
after down only
I think that trend would go on
and in a case of reaching $50 per barrel WAr in Ukraine would stop
Crude Oil Idea of week 08-12/09/25This week I see Oil continuing lower with a potential bullish reaction after reaching lower price areas of interest. Monitoring price action on Monday to decide what we will attack and trade. I wouldn't be surprised if this week is choppy!
Always caution, patience and risk!
GL!
If you like the content give me a follow on X!
Check Bio. Cheers!
Chopped into Indecision - Some Thoughts on jacesabr_real's queryIf you’ve even felt chopped up with your trading, particularly with a situation where no matter what you do you ‘feel like your stop is getting picked off’ then you would not be alone.
jacesabr_real reached out with such a challenge last week and so I’ve offered to share a few thoughts for what they're worth. Please feel free to take what resonates and ignore the rest.
here's the original idea post :
There are 3 areas a trader needs to understand and align with in order to be able to trade successfully:
Market - The market condition: Bull, Bear, Sideways, Quiet Volatile, etc
Method - Your process/strategy for engaging with the market (breakout, mean revert, etc)
Mindset
- The emotional state of the trader throughout the lifecycle of the trade
These 3 areas overlap and despite being last in the list, I suggest that Mindset is the most important as it underpins everything. The late (great) Dr Van Tharp (featured in the original Market Wizards book) used to say that Mindset accounted for 80% of performance but later amended that to 100%.
So I’ll address this from that focal point. The reason? It’s the mind from which the process/strategy is selected, the ‘impulse’ to trade emanates and then the lived experience resides.
If a trader is having challenges with being stopped out frequently - it can result in a trader feeling like…
‘They’re picking me off’
'I was ticked out'
'The idea hasn’t failed, I’m just going to get back in again'
And it's easy to get into a revenge cycle of ‘doing the right thing’ but suffering fractional loss accumulation that adds up to a decent sized (even catastrophic) loss.
Which can lead to a loss in confidence, energy and discipline.
It’s a slippery slope. Which can lead to behaviours such as moving stops, sizing up bigger to make back, taking stops off entirely - continuing to take more trades as one is feeling ‘invested’ in the idea by sheer virtue of time spent in the process. Continue like this - maybe we get lucky and get the odd win to flatten out. Over time however, the risk is Tilt.
As you will likely understand, this is a massive area, so, a few general points that I’ll invite you to consider:
Approach your trading in this order: Mindset → Market → Method
Your Mindset may start out strong but the Market will try to wear it down
Protect your Mindset at all costs
Build steps into the process to simplify decision making.
Be clear on your rules for entry, management and exit. If you're unclear - you'll ask questions of yourself in the moment of the trade when it's hard to think clearly.
Ensure there are rules around capital preservation.
Some Suggestions:
Don’t allow revenge trading to take over… create breaker switches. (i.e. walk away!, take breaks)
Allow a re-entry of the same idea as part of your Method… but cap the number of attempts at the same trade idea to preserve capital and sanity (to perhaps 2 or 3 attempts).
Don’t remove (or move) stops… ever. Always have a worst case stop for risk management
If you’re getting stopped out frequently but the trade idea ultimately goes in your favour then your stop may be too tight (more to do with Market & Method)
Use a larger worst-case stop… and reduce position size if necessary
Monitor changes in volatility for your market (the Market condition may have changed and require an adaptation to your stop sizing to accommodate
With regards to your specific questions the following thoughts came up for me.
Many of your what if scenarios suggest that you may still need to look at your method. Pick an exit mechanism and stick with it. Collect the data points that will help inform whether your strategy is positive expectancy or not. If you keep changing the variables its really tough to track what works and what doesn't.
Get to understand your strategy and the stats around it. What is ‘normal’ in the way of number of losses. I’d suggest that seeing 4-5 losses of the same trade type a number of times a week might be a lot.
Consider the language that you are using. I notice the phrase ‘suicide stop’. Consider what that does to psychology subliminally. Perhaps use something like ‘hard stop’ or ‘capital preservation stop’ to keep your emotional balance and professionalism in your craft.
I hope this is helpful.
CRUDEOIL September Futures long setupCRUDEOIL September Futures long setup
Entry - 5643
Stop Loss - 5627
Target - 5728
Risk Reward - 1:5.3
Crude Oil - Eye twinkle to go long?The Test/Retest was expected, and it was not that clean as it is mostly. Usually I don't want to see price trading back into the fork again.
This time, price managed to jump out of it again and opened above the U-MLH. If it can close outside the fork too, then this would be a good hint for me to load the boat.
The 80% target is the yellow Centerline, or even higher, since the drillers moan about a too low price (Fundamental Fact).
Let's see if we find some petro dollars.
Light Crude Oil | Buy & Sell Setup | 09 Sep 2025 – 10:60 EDTLight Crude Oil Futures | Buy & Sell Setup | 09 Sep 2025 – 10:60 EDT
Ressitance Zone: 63.55 – 63.00
Scenario 1 : Buy
Entry: 63.55
Stop Loss: 63
Targets:
TP1 → 64.82
TP2 → 65.54
TP3 → 66.00
Analysis:
From Buy Zone (63.55 – 63) creates possibilities for a buy move.
Scenario 2 : Sell
Entry: 63
Stop Loss: 63.55
Targets:
TP1 → 62.37
TP2 → 61.85
Analysis:
Below Resistance Zone (63.55 – 63) creates possibilities for a sell move.
Stay alert on updates here.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This idea is shared for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please do your own analysis before making trading decisions.
Oil Long Setup (A Setup)Oil is basically in a sideways price action following a predictable range. Overall, there isn't much momentum. However, considering the current sideways move, and taking into consideration key demand levels, it seems it has a high probability of a move to the upside to next supply zone.
I give this setup an 80% chance (A setup). My buy limit has already been triggered, with TP1 and TP2 levels I indicated on chart.
Let's see how it goes.
Bullish on Oil week 01-07/09 2025Will wait to see price reach and react from the previous month POC. That should be the play off the week. Bullish setups only. I the week starts going higher we should expect for this to reverse in the middle of the month.
potential uptrend continuation on 15M from 4H structure 1->4 : higher high with number 3
being solid local sellers
next ?
* bullish closing bar returns to turning point
* return to major support on 4h timeframe
* poc defending buyers
* bullish divergence on 1->3
Crude oil - Potential UPThe break of breakeven must be give a push UP of price until next resistence area
Price action + RSI support = fresh buy opportunity in CrudeOil1!CrudeOil1! (1-Hour Timeframe) Technical Outlook
CrudeOil1! is currently sustaining at the Fibonacci Golden Ratio level of 0.618, with the weekly pivot placed near 5640. Based on Fibonacci projections and price action, this 5640 zone appears to be a crucial area, as it aligns with a 2.8% retracement completion.
On the 1-hour timeframe, the RSI is showing a decline but may take support near the current levels, adding further weight to this support zone.
All technical indicators together suggest that the 5640–5650 zone could act as a strong support in the short term. If this support holds, we may see upside targets at 5715 and 5750, with the potential for CrudeOil1! to make a new high if the bullish momentum continues.
Thank you.
Oil tests 20 SMA resistanceOil trades within a descending channel dating back to 2023. The price also trades below its 20, 50, and 200 SMA in a bearish trend. Oil faced rejection at the 50 SMA and rebounded lower before finding support at 61.50, the August low. The price has recovered higher and is testing the 20 SMA resistance and the mid-point of the descending channel.
Buyers will need to close above 63.50 to extend gains towards 65.00, the 50 SMA, and the September high. A rise above here creates a higher high and exposes the 200 SMA.
Selles will need to break below 61.50 to create a lower low and extend the bearish trend.
FC
return to proven buyers presents trend continuation opportunity 1->3 : higher high , number 2 proven buyers
3->4 : reutrn to buyers
what do I think will happen next ?
* push above vpoc
* hidden bullish divergence
* obv support line predicting buying interest
WTI Crude Oil Trading Analysis: 02-September-2025Week Ahead Plan: September 2-6, 2025
Analysis Period : August 26-30, 2025 Review | September 2-6, 2025 Outlook
Market : WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL1!)
Methodology : Dual Renko Chart System ($0.25/15min + $0.50/30min)
Current Price : $64.00 (August 30, 2025)
________________________________________
Strategic Outlook & Market Setup
Primary Scenario (70% Probability): Pullback First, Then Recovery
What to Expect : Market opens lower Tuesday ($63.00-63.50 range) due to bearish signal on short-term chart. This creates a buying opportunity if support holds.
Trading Plan:
Tuesday Opening : Expect gap down - don't panic, this was anticipated
Buy Zone : Look for entries between $62.00-63.50 (strong institutional support)
Confirmation Needed : Wait for short-term trend to flip bullish again before buying
Target : Still aiming for $66.50 but may take extra 3-5 days to get there
Secondary Scenario (25% Probability): Sideways Consolidation
What to Expect : Market trades in $63.50-64.50 range for several days while technical signals realign.
Trading Plan:
Strategy: Be patient - don't force trades in choppy conditions
Wait For: Clear breakout above $64.50 with volume
Risk: Could waste 1-2 weeks in sideways action
Low Probability Scenario (5% Probability): Immediate Continuation Up
What to Expect : Market gaps up above $64.25 and keeps rising.
Trading Plan:
Verify: Make sure both short-term and long-term signals turn bullish
Caution: Be skeptical without strong volume confirmation
Action: Can buy but use smaller position sizes until confirmed
________________________________________
Market Risk Factors & Monitoring
Critical Support Level : $62.00
Why Important: Massive institutional buying occurred here - if it breaks, the bullish case is dead
Action If Broken: Exit all long positions immediately, wait for new setup
Probability of Break: Low (15%) but must be respected
Key Events This Week :
Tuesday: ISM Services data (economic health indicator)
Wednesday: Weekly oil inventory report (could cause volatility)
Friday: Jobs report (affects overall market sentiment)
Warning Signs to Watch:
Technical: Short-term trend staying bearish for more than 3 days
Volume: Declining volume on any bounce attempts
Support: Any trading below $62.50 for extended periods
Time: No progress toward $66.50 target within 10 total trading days
Positive Signs to Look For :
Technical: Short-term trend flipping back to bullish (key confirmation)
Volume: Above-average volume on any recovery moves
Support: Strong buying interest at $62-63 zone
Momentum: Clean breakout above $64.50 with follow-through
________________________________________
Forward-Looking Adjustments
Modified Risk Management :
Position Size: Use 50% of normal position size until both timeframes align bullish
Stop Loss: Tighter stops at $62.75 (just below support zone)
Entry Patience: Don't chase - wait for pullback to support levels
Profit Taking: Be more aggressive taking profits at first target ($66.50)
Revised Entry Strategy:
Before Buying, Confirm ALL Three:
Price: Trading at or near $62-63 support zone
Technical: Short-term trend signal flips back to bullish
Volume: Above-average buying interest visible
Timeline Expectations :
Days 1-3: Expect pullback/consolidation phase
Days 4-5: Look for bullish confirmation signals
Days 6-10: Resume advance toward $66.50 target if signals align
Beyond Day 10: If no progress, reassess entire strategy
Success Metrics:
Minimum Goal: Protect capital during pullback phase
Primary Target: $66.50 within 2 weeks (revised from 1 week)
Risk Limit: Maximum 2% account loss if support fails
Time Limit: Exit strategy if no directional progress within 10 days total
Simplified Decision Framework :
Green Light to Buy: Price near $62-63 + Short-term trend bullish + Good volume Yellow Light (Wait): Mixed signals, choppy price action, low volume
Red Light (Exit): Price below $62, bearish trend continuing, time limit exceeded
________________________________________
Bottom Line : The bigger picture remains bullish, but short-term signals suggest a pullback first. Use any weakness to $62-63 as a buying opportunity, but only with proper confirmation. Be patient - the setup is still valid but timing may be delayed by a few days.
________________________________________
Document Classification : Trading Analysis
Next Update : September 6, 2025 (Weekly Review)
Risk Level : Moderate (controlled institutional setup)
This analysis represents continued validation of a systematic, institutional-grade trading methodology with demonstrated predictive accuracy and risk control capabilities. This is a view that represents possible scenarios but ultimate responsibility is with each individual trader.
Risk Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. All trading involves risk of loss.
CL1! 4H | Bullish Setup
Price has respected multiple bullish structures and key demand zones. Strong higher lows with clean breaks of internal structure.
If theris pullback before continuation to the upside then can add entries
Entry: 64.03 (re-entry)
SL: 62.55
TP: 67.21
R:R ≈ 2.5
Final target aligns with previous supply and imbalance fill. Monitoring reaction around 66.70 zone for partials
Looking for oil long!Oil could turn very strong starting tomorrow because Israel’s strike on Hamas leaders in Qatar—a key Middle Eastern hub has sharply raised geopolitical risk around vital energy routes, and while today’s market reaction was limited, traders often price in these shocks with a lag; any escalation, threat to infrastructure, or renewed headlines could spark a strong rally as the market bakes in tighter supply expectations and higher risk premiums .
Oil Futures looking to runAfter hitting a double bottom at the 61.50 level, oil appears to be headed in a up trend.
Crude oil futures probable price movementsCrude oil futures probable price movements. we can see an up movement in price above the levels
return to proven buyers provides continuation cheap entry 1->4 : return to number 2 proven buyers
next :
* hidden bull rsi and mfi
* freq shifted touch of lin regression line
* poc defending buyers
*obv in uptrend
*pullback to vwap
