Crude: Importance Of The 61.8% Shows Resistance at 64Crude, always came close to the important 61.8% Fib, then it turned lower, broke the channel. Resistance is at $64.
QCS1! trade ideas
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
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potential for push down in bearish continuation 1->4 : market pushes down with number
2 buyers defeated by number 3 sellers
4->5 : we return to number 3 sellers
next?
* some bearish candles , large poc volume
if push below protects sells
* bearish 2nd degree divergence
* downtrend interest maintained with
obv trendline , buyers pushing up but
not breaking structure
I have a dream - OIl below $50I have a dream OIl below $50
since US strike on Iran OIl hit $76 per barral for several days
after down only
I think that trend would go on
and in a case of reaching $50 per barrel WAr in Ukraine would stop
CRUDEOIL September Futures long setupCRUDEOIL September Futures long setup
Entry - 5643
Stop Loss - 5627
Target - 5728
Risk Reward - 1:5.3
Crude Oil Idea of week 08-12/09/25This week I see Oil continuing lower with a potential bullish reaction after reaching lower price areas of interest. Monitoring price action on Monday to decide what we will attack and trade. I wouldn't be surprised if this week is choppy!
Always caution, patience and risk!
GL!
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Chopped into Indecision - Some Thoughts on jacesabr_real's queryIf you’ve even felt chopped up with your trading, particularly with a situation where no matter what you do you ‘feel like your stop is getting picked off’ then you would not be alone.
jacesabr_real reached out with such a challenge last week and so I’ve offered to share a few thoughts for what they're worth. Please feel free to take what resonates and ignore the rest.
here's the original idea post :
There are 3 areas a trader needs to understand and align with in order to be able to trade successfully:
Market - The market condition: Bull, Bear, Sideways, Quiet Volatile, etc
Method - Your process/strategy for engaging with the market (breakout, mean revert, etc)
Mindset
- The emotional state of the trader throughout the lifecycle of the trade
These 3 areas overlap and despite being last in the list, I suggest that Mindset is the most important as it underpins everything. The late (great) Dr Van Tharp (featured in the original Market Wizards book) used to say that Mindset accounted for 80% of performance but later amended that to 100%.
So I’ll address this from that focal point. The reason? It’s the mind from which the process/strategy is selected, the ‘impulse’ to trade emanates and then the lived experience resides.
If a trader is having challenges with being stopped out frequently - it can result in a trader feeling like…
‘They’re picking me off’
'I was ticked out'
'The idea hasn’t failed, I’m just going to get back in again'
And it's easy to get into a revenge cycle of ‘doing the right thing’ but suffering fractional loss accumulation that adds up to a decent sized (even catastrophic) loss.
Which can lead to a loss in confidence, energy and discipline.
It’s a slippery slope. Which can lead to behaviours such as moving stops, sizing up bigger to make back, taking stops off entirely - continuing to take more trades as one is feeling ‘invested’ in the idea by sheer virtue of time spent in the process. Continue like this - maybe we get lucky and get the odd win to flatten out. Over time however, the risk is Tilt.
As you will likely understand, this is a massive area, so, a few general points that I’ll invite you to consider:
Approach your trading in this order: Mindset → Market → Method
Your Mindset may start out strong but the Market will try to wear it down
Protect your Mindset at all costs
Build steps into the process to simplify decision making.
Be clear on your rules for entry, management and exit. If you're unclear - you'll ask questions of yourself in the moment of the trade when it's hard to think clearly.
Ensure there are rules around capital preservation.
Some Suggestions:
Don’t allow revenge trading to take over… create breaker switches. (i.e. walk away!, take breaks)
Allow a re-entry of the same idea as part of your Method… but cap the number of attempts at the same trade idea to preserve capital and sanity (to perhaps 2 or 3 attempts).
Don’t remove (or move) stops… ever. Always have a worst case stop for risk management
If you’re getting stopped out frequently but the trade idea ultimately goes in your favour then your stop may be too tight (more to do with Market & Method)
Use a larger worst-case stop… and reduce position size if necessary
Monitor changes in volatility for your market (the Market condition may have changed and require an adaptation to your stop sizing to accommodate
With regards to your specific questions the following thoughts came up for me.
Many of your what if scenarios suggest that you may still need to look at your method. Pick an exit mechanism and stick with it. Collect the data points that will help inform whether your strategy is positive expectancy or not. If you keep changing the variables its really tough to track what works and what doesn't.
Get to understand your strategy and the stats around it. What is ‘normal’ in the way of number of losses. I’d suggest that seeing 4-5 losses of the same trade type a number of times a week might be a lot.
Consider the language that you are using. I notice the phrase ‘suicide stop’. Consider what that does to psychology subliminally. Perhaps use something like ‘hard stop’ or ‘capital preservation stop’ to keep your emotional balance and professionalism in your craft.
I hope this is helpful.
Crude Oil - Eye twinkle to go long?The Test/Retest was expected, and it was not that clean as it is mostly. Usually I don't want to see price trading back into the fork again.
This time, price managed to jump out of it again and opened above the U-MLH. If it can close outside the fork too, then this would be a good hint for me to load the boat.
The 80% target is the yellow Centerline, or even higher, since the drillers moan about a too low price (Fundamental Fact).
Let's see if we find some petro dollars.
Bullish on Oil week 01-07/09 2025Will wait to see price reach and react from the previous month POC. That should be the play off the week. Bullish setups only. I the week starts going higher we should expect for this to reverse in the middle of the month.
Oil Long Setup (A Setup)Oil is basically in a sideways price action following a predictable range. Overall, there isn't much momentum. However, considering the current sideways move, and taking into consideration key demand levels, it seems it has a high probability of a move to the upside to next supply zone.
I give this setup an 80% chance (A setup). My buy limit has already been triggered, with TP1 and TP2 levels I indicated on chart.
Let's see how it goes.
Price action + RSI support = fresh buy opportunity in CrudeOil1!CrudeOil1! (1-Hour Timeframe) Technical Outlook
CrudeOil1! is currently sustaining at the Fibonacci Golden Ratio level of 0.618, with the weekly pivot placed near 5640. Based on Fibonacci projections and price action, this 5640 zone appears to be a crucial area, as it aligns with a 2.8% retracement completion.
On the 1-hour timeframe, the RSI is showing a decline but may take support near the current levels, adding further weight to this support zone.
All technical indicators together suggest that the 5640–5650 zone could act as a strong support in the short term. If this support holds, we may see upside targets at 5715 and 5750, with the potential for CrudeOil1! to make a new high if the bullish momentum continues.
Thank you.
potential uptrend continuation on 15M from 4H structure 1->4 : higher high with number 3
being solid local sellers
next ?
* bullish closing bar returns to turning point
* return to major support on 4h timeframe
* poc defending buyers
* bullish divergence on 1->3
Crude oil - Potential UPThe break of breakeven must be give a push UP of price until next resistence area
return to proven buyers presents trend continuation opportunity 1->3 : higher high , number 2 proven buyers
3->4 : reutrn to buyers
what do I think will happen next ?
* push above vpoc
* hidden bullish divergence
* obv support line predicting buying interest
WTI Crude Oil Trading Analysis: 02-September-2025Week Ahead Plan: September 2-6, 2025
Analysis Period : August 26-30, 2025 Review | September 2-6, 2025 Outlook
Market : WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL1!)
Methodology : Dual Renko Chart System ($0.25/15min + $0.50/30min)
Current Price : $64.00 (August 30, 2025)
________________________________________
Strategic Outlook & Market Setup
Primary Scenario (70% Probability): Pullback First, Then Recovery
What to Expect : Market opens lower Tuesday ($63.00-63.50 range) due to bearish signal on short-term chart. This creates a buying opportunity if support holds.
Trading Plan:
Tuesday Opening : Expect gap down - don't panic, this was anticipated
Buy Zone : Look for entries between $62.00-63.50 (strong institutional support)
Confirmation Needed : Wait for short-term trend to flip bullish again before buying
Target : Still aiming for $66.50 but may take extra 3-5 days to get there
Secondary Scenario (25% Probability): Sideways Consolidation
What to Expect : Market trades in $63.50-64.50 range for several days while technical signals realign.
Trading Plan:
Strategy: Be patient - don't force trades in choppy conditions
Wait For: Clear breakout above $64.50 with volume
Risk: Could waste 1-2 weeks in sideways action
Low Probability Scenario (5% Probability): Immediate Continuation Up
What to Expect : Market gaps up above $64.25 and keeps rising.
Trading Plan:
Verify: Make sure both short-term and long-term signals turn bullish
Caution: Be skeptical without strong volume confirmation
Action: Can buy but use smaller position sizes until confirmed
________________________________________
Market Risk Factors & Monitoring
Critical Support Level : $62.00
Why Important: Massive institutional buying occurred here - if it breaks, the bullish case is dead
Action If Broken: Exit all long positions immediately, wait for new setup
Probability of Break: Low (15%) but must be respected
Key Events This Week :
Tuesday: ISM Services data (economic health indicator)
Wednesday: Weekly oil inventory report (could cause volatility)
Friday: Jobs report (affects overall market sentiment)
Warning Signs to Watch:
Technical: Short-term trend staying bearish for more than 3 days
Volume: Declining volume on any bounce attempts
Support: Any trading below $62.50 for extended periods
Time: No progress toward $66.50 target within 10 total trading days
Positive Signs to Look For :
Technical: Short-term trend flipping back to bullish (key confirmation)
Volume: Above-average volume on any recovery moves
Support: Strong buying interest at $62-63 zone
Momentum: Clean breakout above $64.50 with follow-through
________________________________________
Forward-Looking Adjustments
Modified Risk Management :
Position Size: Use 50% of normal position size until both timeframes align bullish
Stop Loss: Tighter stops at $62.75 (just below support zone)
Entry Patience: Don't chase - wait for pullback to support levels
Profit Taking: Be more aggressive taking profits at first target ($66.50)
Revised Entry Strategy:
Before Buying, Confirm ALL Three:
Price: Trading at or near $62-63 support zone
Technical: Short-term trend signal flips back to bullish
Volume: Above-average buying interest visible
Timeline Expectations :
Days 1-3: Expect pullback/consolidation phase
Days 4-5: Look for bullish confirmation signals
Days 6-10: Resume advance toward $66.50 target if signals align
Beyond Day 10: If no progress, reassess entire strategy
Success Metrics:
Minimum Goal: Protect capital during pullback phase
Primary Target: $66.50 within 2 weeks (revised from 1 week)
Risk Limit: Maximum 2% account loss if support fails
Time Limit: Exit strategy if no directional progress within 10 days total
Simplified Decision Framework :
Green Light to Buy: Price near $62-63 + Short-term trend bullish + Good volume Yellow Light (Wait): Mixed signals, choppy price action, low volume
Red Light (Exit): Price below $62, bearish trend continuing, time limit exceeded
________________________________________
Bottom Line : The bigger picture remains bullish, but short-term signals suggest a pullback first. Use any weakness to $62-63 as a buying opportunity, but only with proper confirmation. Be patient - the setup is still valid but timing may be delayed by a few days.
________________________________________
Document Classification : Trading Analysis
Next Update : September 6, 2025 (Weekly Review)
Risk Level : Moderate (controlled institutional setup)
This analysis represents continued validation of a systematic, institutional-grade trading methodology with demonstrated predictive accuracy and risk control capabilities. This is a view that represents possible scenarios but ultimate responsibility is with each individual trader.
Risk Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. All trading involves risk of loss.
CL1! 4H | Bullish Setup
Price has respected multiple bullish structures and key demand zones. Strong higher lows with clean breaks of internal structure.
If theris pullback before continuation to the upside then can add entries
Entry: 64.03 (re-entry)
SL: 62.55
TP: 67.21
R:R ≈ 2.5
Final target aligns with previous supply and imbalance fill. Monitoring reaction around 66.70 zone for partials
return to proven buyers provides continuation cheap entry 1->4 : return to number 2 proven buyers
next :
* hidden bull rsi and mfi
* freq shifted touch of lin regression line
* poc defending buyers
*obv in uptrend
*pullback to vwap
Light Crude Oil | Buy & Sell Setup | 09 Sep 2025 – 10:60 EDTLight Crude Oil Futures | Buy & Sell Setup | 09 Sep 2025 – 10:60 EDT
Ressitance Zone: 63.55 – 63.00
Scenario 1 : Buy
Entry: 63.55
Stop Loss: 63
Targets:
TP1 → 64.82
TP2 → 65.54
TP3 → 66.00
Analysis:
From Buy Zone (63.55 – 63) creates possibilities for a buy move.
Scenario 2 : Sell
Entry: 63
Stop Loss: 63.55
Targets:
TP1 → 62.37
TP2 → 61.85
Analysis:
Below Resistance Zone (63.55 – 63) creates possibilities for a sell move.
Stay alert on updates here.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This idea is shared for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please do your own analysis before making trading decisions.
WTI Crude Oil (CL) - Technical Analysis Report - 20250908Analysis Date : September 8, 2025
Current Price : $62.25
Market Session : Pre-Market Analysis
Executive Summary
WTI Crude Oil presents a complex trading scenario with strong institutional support at current levels offset by concerning technical deterioration on the execution timeframe. The quarterly volume profile reveals massive smart money accumulation in the $62-64 zone, yet recent DEMA bearish crossover signals potential near-term weakness. This analysis provides a comprehensive framework for navigating this conflicted setup.
Quarterly Volume Profile Analysis
Institutional Positioning Intelligence
The quarterly volume profile (Q3 2025) reveals critical institutional positioning patterns that provide strategic context for all tactical decisions:
Primary Institutional Accumulation Zone: $62.00-$64.50
Massive blue volume concentration representing institutional accumulation
Heaviest volume density occurs at $62.50-$63.50 range
Current price ($62.25) sits at the lower boundary of this critical zone
Volume profile width indicates sustained institutional interest over extended period
Secondary Support Levels:
$60.50-$61.50: Moderate blue volume representing backup institutional support
$58.00-$59.00: Minimal volume suggesting limited institutional interest
Below $58.00: Complete volume void indicating institutional evacuation zone
Resistance Structure Analysis:
$65.00-$66.50: First institutional resistance zone with mixed volume
$68.00-$70.00: Heavy yellow volume indicating institutional distribution
$70.00+: Historical distribution zone from Q2 2025 peak
Price Structure Context
Historical Pattern Recognition:
The current positioning mirrors successful institutional accumulation patterns observed in previous commodity cycles. The width and intensity of the $62-64 blue volume zone suggests this represents a major strategic positioning by institutional participants, similar to the Natural Gas accumulation pattern that preceded its successful reversal.
Critical Structure Points:
Institutional Floor: $62.00 represents the absolute lower boundary of smart money positioning
Volume Point of Control: $63.25 shows peak institutional activity
Breakout Level: $64.50 marks the upper boundary requiring institutional continuation
Void Zone: $58-60 represents dangerous territory with minimal institutional backing
Execution Chart Technical Analysis
Current Technical Configuration
DEMA Analysis - CRITICAL WARNING SIGNAL:
Black Line (Fast DEMA 12): Currently at $62.25
Orange Line (Slow DEMA 20): Currently at $62.50
Configuration: Bearish crossover confirmed (black below orange)
Trend Bias: Technical momentum now bearish despite institutional support
DMI/ADX Assessment:
ADX Level: 40+ indicating strong directional movement
+DI vs -DI: -DI gaining dominance over +DI
Momentum Direction: Confirming the DEMA bearish bias
Trend Strength: High ADX suggests this technical shift has conviction
Stochastic Analysis:
Tactical Stochastic (5,3,3): Oversold territory providing potential bounce signal
Strategic Stochastic (50,3,3): Still showing bearish momentum
Divergence: Mixed signals between timeframes creating uncertainty
Support and Resistance Levels
Immediate Technical Levels:
Current Resistance: $62.75 (DEMA 20 orange line)
Key Resistance: $63.25 (institutional volume POC)
Major Resistance: $64.00 (upper institutional boundary)
Immediate Support: $61.75 (recent swing low)
Critical Support: $61.25 (institutional floor approach)
Emergency Support: $60.50 (secondary institutional zone)
Trading Scenarios and Setup Criteria
Scenario 1: Bullish Reversal Setup
Required Conditions for Long Entry:
DEMA recrossover: Black line must cross back above orange line
DMI confirmation: +DI must regain dominance over -DI
ADX maintenance: Strong directional reading above 25-30
Volume respect: Price must hold above $62.00 institutional floor
Stochastic alignment: Both tactical and strategic stochastics showing bullish divergence
Entry Protocol:
Primary Entry: $62.50-$63.00 upon DEMA bullish recrossover
Secondary Entry: $62.00-$62.25 if institutional floor holds with technical improvement
Position Sizing: 2% account risk maximum given conflicted signals
Stop Loss: Below $61.50 (institutional support violation)
Profit Targets:
Target 1: $65.00 (first institutional resistance) - Take 50% profits
Target 2: $67.00 (major resistance zone) - Take 25% profits
Target 3: $68.50-$70.00 (distribution zone) - Trail remaining 25%
Scenario 2: Bearish Breakdown Setup
Short Entry Conditions:
DEMA bearish continuation: Black line accelerating below orange line
Volume violation: Price breaking below $62.00 institutional floor
DMI confirmation: -DI expanding lead over +DI
ADX persistence: Maintaining strong directional bias
Short Setup Parameters:
Entry Range: $61.50-$61.75 on institutional support breakdown
Stop Loss: Above $62.75 (failed breakdown)
Targets: $60.00, $58.50, $57.00 (volume void zones)
Risk Management: Tight stops given counter-institutional positioning
Scenario 3: Range-Bound Consolidation
Sideways Trading Framework:
Range Definition: $62.00-$64.50 (institutional accumulation zone)
Long Zone: $62.00-$62.50 (lower boundary)
Short Zone: $63.75-$64.50 (upper boundary)
Stop Distance: 0.5-0.75 points ($500-$750 per contract)
Profit Target: Opposite range boundary
Risk Management Protocols
Position Sizing Guidelines
Conservative Approach (Recommended):
Maximum Risk: 1.5% of account (reduced from standard 2% due to technical/institutional conflict)
Contract Calculation: Account Size × 0.015 ÷ (Stop Distance × $10)
Example: $100,000 account with $0.75 stop = 200 contracts maximum
Stop Loss Hierarchy
Tactical Stop: $61.75 (execution chart support)
Strategic Stop: $61.50 (institutional boundary approach)
Emergency Stop: $60.75 (institutional floor violation)
Time-Based Risk Controls
Monitoring Requirements:
Daily: DEMA relationship and institutional level respect
4-Hour: DMI momentum shifts and ADX strength
Hourly: Stochastic divergence patterns
Exit Timeline: 10 trading days maximum if no clear resolution
Market Context and External Factors
Fundamental Considerations
Supply/Demand Dynamics:
OPEC+ production decisions impacting supply outlook
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve policies
China demand recovery prospects
Refinery maintenance season effects (September-October)
Geopolitical Factors:
Middle East tension levels affecting risk premiums
US-Iran relations impacting supply disruption concerns
Russia-Ukraine conflict ongoing effects on global energy flows
Seasonal Patterns
September-October Considerations:
End of summer driving season typically bearish for demand
Hurricane season potential for supply disruptions
Heating oil demand preparation potentially supportive
Refinery turnaround season creating temporary supply tightness
Monitoring Checklist and Alert Levels
Daily Monitoring Requirements
DEMA Status: Track black vs orange line relationship
Institutional Respect: Confirm price behavior at $62.00 floor
Volume Analysis: Monitor any changes in accumulation patterns
External Events: EIA inventory reports, Fed policy statements
Correlation Analysis: Monitor relationship with dollar strength and equity markets
Critical Alert Levels
Bullish Alerts:
DEMA bullish recrossover above $62.50
Strong bounce from $62.00 institutional floor
+DI reclaiming dominance over -DI
Break above $64.50 with volume confirmation
Bearish Alerts:
Break below $62.00 institutional floor
DEMA gap expansion (black line diverging from orange)
Volume breakdown below secondary support at $60.50
ADX above 50 with strong -DI dominance
Conclusion and Strategic Outlook
WTI Crude Oil presents a classic conflict between institutional positioning and technical momentum. The quarterly volume profile provides unambiguous evidence of major institutional accumulation at current levels, yet execution chart technical deterioration cannot be ignored. This scenario requires heightened vigilance and reduced position sizing until technical and institutional signals realign. The institutional floor at $62.00 represents the critical decision point - respect of this level with technical improvement offers exceptional risk/reward opportunities, while violation signals potential deeper correction despite smart money positioning.
Strategic Recommendation: Defensive positioning with readiness to capitalize on either directional resolution. Prioritize capital preservation while maintaining alert status for high-probability setups upon signal alignment.
Next Review: Daily assessment of DEMA configuration and institutional level respect
Document Status: Active monitoring required - conflicted signals demanding careful attention
Important Disclaimer
Risk Warning and Educational Purpose Statement
This analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or trading signals. All trading and investment decisions are solely the responsibility of the individual trader or investor.
Key Risk Considerations:
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors
Past performance does not guarantee future results
Market conditions can change rapidly, invalidating any analysis
Leverage can amplify both profits and losses significantly
Individual financial circumstances and risk tolerance vary greatly
Professional Guidance: Before making any trading decisions, consult with qualified financial advisors, conduct your own research, and ensure you fully understand the risks involved. Only trade with capital you can afford to lose.
Methodology Limitations: Volume profile analysis and technical indicators are tools for market assessment but are not infallible predictors of future price movement. Market dynamics include numerous variables that cannot be fully captured in any single analytical framework.
The views and analysis presented represent one interpretation of market data and should be considered alongside other forms of analysis and individual judgment.
return to resistance provides sell opportunity 1->4 : return to proven sellers
next ?
* 2nd deg. bear divergence rsi and mfi
*vwap 1st standard deviation
*vpoc
*inside bar and bearish bar (forming)
*stop order for sell
Broad look at CL Futures Just mapping out CL Futures on weekly chart
This market has been range bound for more than a year buyers at $60 and sellers at $80
Last week finished weak and could be the catalyst for another test of the support area
Be patient wait for your set up and trade within tight risk parameters.
