WTI Crude Oil (CL) - Technical Analysis Report - 20250908Analysis Date : September 8, 2025
Current Price : $62.25
Market Session : Pre-Market Analysis
Executive Summary
WTI Crude Oil presents a complex trading scenario with strong institutional support at current levels offset by concerning technical deterioration on the execution timeframe. The quarterly volume profile reveals massive smart money accumulation in the $62-64 zone, yet recent DEMA bearish crossover signals potential near-term weakness. This analysis provides a comprehensive framework for navigating this conflicted setup.
Quarterly Volume Profile Analysis
Institutional Positioning Intelligence
The quarterly volume profile (Q3 2025) reveals critical institutional positioning patterns that provide strategic context for all tactical decisions:
Primary Institutional Accumulation Zone: $62.00-$64.50
Massive blue volume concentration representing institutional accumulation
Heaviest volume density occurs at $62.50-$63.50 range
Current price ($62.25) sits at the lower boundary of this critical zone
Volume profile width indicates sustained institutional interest over extended period
Secondary Support Levels:
$60.50-$61.50: Moderate blue volume representing backup institutional support
$58.00-$59.00: Minimal volume suggesting limited institutional interest
Below $58.00: Complete volume void indicating institutional evacuation zone
Resistance Structure Analysis:
$65.00-$66.50: First institutional resistance zone with mixed volume
$68.00-$70.00: Heavy yellow volume indicating institutional distribution
$70.00+: Historical distribution zone from Q2 2025 peak
Price Structure Context
Historical Pattern Recognition:
The current positioning mirrors successful institutional accumulation patterns observed in previous commodity cycles. The width and intensity of the $62-64 blue volume zone suggests this represents a major strategic positioning by institutional participants, similar to the Natural Gas accumulation pattern that preceded its successful reversal.
Critical Structure Points:
Institutional Floor: $62.00 represents the absolute lower boundary of smart money positioning
Volume Point of Control: $63.25 shows peak institutional activity
Breakout Level: $64.50 marks the upper boundary requiring institutional continuation
Void Zone: $58-60 represents dangerous territory with minimal institutional backing
Execution Chart Technical Analysis
Current Technical Configuration
DEMA Analysis - CRITICAL WARNING SIGNAL:
Black Line (Fast DEMA 12): Currently at $62.25
Orange Line (Slow DEMA 20): Currently at $62.50
Configuration: Bearish crossover confirmed (black below orange)
Trend Bias: Technical momentum now bearish despite institutional support
DMI/ADX Assessment:
ADX Level: 40+ indicating strong directional movement
+DI vs -DI: -DI gaining dominance over +DI
Momentum Direction: Confirming the DEMA bearish bias
Trend Strength: High ADX suggests this technical shift has conviction
Stochastic Analysis:
Tactical Stochastic (5,3,3): Oversold territory providing potential bounce signal
Strategic Stochastic (50,3,3): Still showing bearish momentum
Divergence: Mixed signals between timeframes creating uncertainty
Support and Resistance Levels
Immediate Technical Levels:
Current Resistance: $62.75 (DEMA 20 orange line)
Key Resistance: $63.25 (institutional volume POC)
Major Resistance: $64.00 (upper institutional boundary)
Immediate Support: $61.75 (recent swing low)
Critical Support: $61.25 (institutional floor approach)
Emergency Support: $60.50 (secondary institutional zone)
Trading Scenarios and Setup Criteria
Scenario 1: Bullish Reversal Setup
Required Conditions for Long Entry:
DEMA recrossover: Black line must cross back above orange line
DMI confirmation: +DI must regain dominance over -DI
ADX maintenance: Strong directional reading above 25-30
Volume respect: Price must hold above $62.00 institutional floor
Stochastic alignment: Both tactical and strategic stochastics showing bullish divergence
Entry Protocol:
Primary Entry: $62.50-$63.00 upon DEMA bullish recrossover
Secondary Entry: $62.00-$62.25 if institutional floor holds with technical improvement
Position Sizing: 2% account risk maximum given conflicted signals
Stop Loss: Below $61.50 (institutional support violation)
Profit Targets:
Target 1: $65.00 (first institutional resistance) - Take 50% profits
Target 2: $67.00 (major resistance zone) - Take 25% profits
Target 3: $68.50-$70.00 (distribution zone) - Trail remaining 25%
Scenario 2: Bearish Breakdown Setup
Short Entry Conditions:
DEMA bearish continuation: Black line accelerating below orange line
Volume violation: Price breaking below $62.00 institutional floor
DMI confirmation: -DI expanding lead over +DI
ADX persistence: Maintaining strong directional bias
Short Setup Parameters:
Entry Range: $61.50-$61.75 on institutional support breakdown
Stop Loss: Above $62.75 (failed breakdown)
Targets: $60.00, $58.50, $57.00 (volume void zones)
Risk Management: Tight stops given counter-institutional positioning
Scenario 3: Range-Bound Consolidation
Sideways Trading Framework:
Range Definition: $62.00-$64.50 (institutional accumulation zone)
Long Zone: $62.00-$62.50 (lower boundary)
Short Zone: $63.75-$64.50 (upper boundary)
Stop Distance: 0.5-0.75 points ($500-$750 per contract)
Profit Target: Opposite range boundary
Risk Management Protocols
Position Sizing Guidelines
Conservative Approach (Recommended):
Maximum Risk: 1.5% of account (reduced from standard 2% due to technical/institutional conflict)
Contract Calculation: Account Size ร 0.015 รท (Stop Distance ร $10)
Example: $100,000 account with $0.75 stop = 200 contracts maximum
Stop Loss Hierarchy
Tactical Stop: $61.75 (execution chart support)
Strategic Stop: $61.50 (institutional boundary approach)
Emergency Stop: $60.75 (institutional floor violation)
Time-Based Risk Controls
Monitoring Requirements:
Daily: DEMA relationship and institutional level respect
4-Hour: DMI momentum shifts and ADX strength
Hourly: Stochastic divergence patterns
Exit Timeline: 10 trading days maximum if no clear resolution
Market Context and External Factors
Fundamental Considerations
Supply/Demand Dynamics:
OPEC+ production decisions impacting supply outlook
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve policies
China demand recovery prospects
Refinery maintenance season effects (September-October)
Geopolitical Factors:
Middle East tension levels affecting risk premiums
US-Iran relations impacting supply disruption concerns
Russia-Ukraine conflict ongoing effects on global energy flows
Seasonal Patterns
September-October Considerations:
End of summer driving season typically bearish for demand
Hurricane season potential for supply disruptions
Heating oil demand preparation potentially supportive
Refinery turnaround season creating temporary supply tightness
Monitoring Checklist and Alert Levels
Daily Monitoring Requirements
DEMA Status: Track black vs orange line relationship
Institutional Respect: Confirm price behavior at $62.00 floor
Volume Analysis: Monitor any changes in accumulation patterns
External Events: EIA inventory reports, Fed policy statements
Correlation Analysis: Monitor relationship with dollar strength and equity markets
Critical Alert Levels
Bullish Alerts:
DEMA bullish recrossover above $62.50
Strong bounce from $62.00 institutional floor
+DI reclaiming dominance over -DI
Break above $64.50 with volume confirmation
Bearish Alerts:
Break below $62.00 institutional floor
DEMA gap expansion (black line diverging from orange)
Volume breakdown below secondary support at $60.50
ADX above 50 with strong -DI dominance
Conclusion and Strategic Outlook
WTI Crude Oil presents a classic conflict between institutional positioning and technical momentum. The quarterly volume profile provides unambiguous evidence of major institutional accumulation at current levels, yet execution chart technical deterioration cannot be ignored. This scenario requires heightened vigilance and reduced position sizing until technical and institutional signals realign. The institutional floor at $62.00 represents the critical decision point - respect of this level with technical improvement offers exceptional risk/reward opportunities, while violation signals potential deeper correction despite smart money positioning.
Strategic Recommendation: Defensive positioning with readiness to capitalize on either directional resolution. Prioritize capital preservation while maintaining alert status for high-probability setups upon signal alignment.
Next Review: Daily assessment of DEMA configuration and institutional level respect
Document Status: Active monitoring required - conflicted signals demanding careful attention
Important Disclaimer
Risk Warning and Educational Purpose Statement
This analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or trading signals. All trading and investment decisions are solely the responsibility of the individual trader or investor.
Key Risk Considerations:
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors
Past performance does not guarantee future results
Market conditions can change rapidly, invalidating any analysis
Leverage can amplify both profits and losses significantly
Individual financial circumstances and risk tolerance vary greatly
Professional Guidance: Before making any trading decisions, consult with qualified financial advisors, conduct your own research, and ensure you fully understand the risks involved. Only trade with capital you can afford to lose.
Methodology Limitations: Volume profile analysis and technical indicators are tools for market assessment but are not infallible predictors of future price movement. Market dynamics include numerous variables that cannot be fully captured in any single analytical framework.
The views and analysis presented represent one interpretation of market data and should be considered alongside other forms of analysis and individual judgment.
QCS1! trade ideas
Broad look at CL Futures Just mapping out CL Futures on weekly chart
This market has been range bound for more than a year buyers at $60 and sellers at $80
Last week finished weak and could be the catalyst for another test of the support area
Be patient wait for your set up and trade within tight risk parameters.
potential return to trend after pullback 1->3 : creates a lower low , number 2 proven sellers
3->4 : return to sellers proving ground
next ?
* break of LRC would be a good entry for sell
* hidden bear rsi and mfi ( continuation )
*obv uptrend broken ( sellers stronger than buyers)
* stop sell below current bullish bar hoping to
enter at break of LRC invalidate at close above number 2
risky but plusable trade idea to upside ( very risky ) 1->3 : number 2 becomes proven
after number 3 closes above number 2
sellers
3->4 : return to number 2 buyers
what next ?
* obv shows a shift in market interest to
buyers
*longstanding (now 2nd degree ) bull
divergence on rsi and mfi
*poc showing large cluster of volume
supporting buys
Oil falls after rejection at the 50 SMAOil trades within a descending channel dating back to 2023. The price trades below its 200 SMA in a bearish trend. Oil failed to rise above the 50 SMA and the 65.00 round number, rebounding lower, with the RSI below 50 highlighting bearish pressure.
Should sellers extend the bearish move below 61.45, the August low, and 60.00 round number, this creates a lower low and could spur a deeper selloff towards 55.00.
FC
potential continuation of uptrend with return to proven buyers1->3 : creates number 2 as solid major low in local scope
3->4 : return to proven buyers
what do I think will happen next ?
* continuation upward
* rsi mfi hidden bull
* low volume around number 2 and 4 is usually rejected
* vwap first standard deviation confluence
Crude Oil MCX Futures โ Weekly Positional Roadmap (1-5 Sep-2025)MCX:CRUDEOIL1! For positional and swing traders in Crude Oil MCX Futures, weekly levels provide a clear directional blueprint for the week ahead.
Weekly Key Levels
Zero Line: 5654 โ This is the pivotal level dividing bullish and bearish sentiment for the entire week. Any 1 hour candle closed before or above with a high or low break, is a bias hint for the week!
Positional Buy Setup: Remain buy-biased till 5627. Positions can be initiated above 5671 (Weekly Long Entry) and strengthened at 5663 (Add Long).
Upside Targets:
Weekly Take Profit Tgt 1: 5698
Weekly Take Profit Tgt 2: 5725
Long Exit: Closing Above 5647 โ Consider booking positions near these levels if upward momentum stalls.
Weekly Bearish Plan
Short Setup: If Crude breaches and sustains below 5654, positional shorts can be considered with eyes on 5610 and 5583 for target levels.
Short Exit: Cover or reconsider shorts if price rebounds above 5678.
Tactical Guidance
Weekly/Positional Traders: Use these levels for larger swing moves; wait for clear breakouts confirmed by 1 Hour candle closes for timing entries and exits, on pull back, make positions.
Adapt position sizes and risk management to account for wider weekly swings compared to daily trades.
Approach the week with a clear planโthese levels serve as checkpoints for positional trading rather than intraday scalps. Stay patient and disciplined for potential bigger moves this week.
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!
CL1! 4H | Bullish Setup
Price has respected multiple bullish structures and key demand zones. Strong higher lows with clean breaks of internal structure.
If theris pullback before continuation to the upside then can add entries
Entry: 64.03 (re-entry)
SL: 62.55
TP: 67.21
R:R โ 2.5
Final target aligns with previous supply and imbalance fill. Monitoring reaction around 66.70 zone for partials
Light Crude Oil Futures (CL) โ Trade Setup & Key Levels
๐ข๏ธ Light Crude Oil Futures (CL) โ Trade Setup & Key Levels ๐
Analyzing Light Crude Oil Futures based on recent market structure and risk management parameters.
๐ **Entry Price:** $61.15
๐ Key Levels to Watch:
๐น **Exit Target:** +6.1% above entry โ around $64.88
๐น **Stop Loss:** -4.6% below entry โ around $58.34
๐น **Support Zone:** -7.3% below entry โ around $56.66
๐น **Resistance Zone:** +10.9% above entry โ around $67.84
Crude Oil is consolidating in a medium-range channel. With the current entry, the risk-to-reward ratio favors a potential upside, while defined levels help manage downside risks.
**Bullish View:** Price can aim for $64.88 first, and potentially retest the $67.80 resistance zone.
**Bearish View:** If $58.34 fails to hold, we may see extended downside toward $56.66 support.
โ ๏ธ **Note:** If price breaks below $58.34, expect further decline toward support. โ ๏ธ
๐ **Be sure to follow updated ideas for Crude Oil Futures!** ๐
โฐ **Analysis Timeframe:** Daily & 4H perspective.
โ๏ธ **Always use a Stop Loss** for risk management! ๐จ
๐ก **This is just my market idea โ follow your own strategy.**
โ
**Hit the 'Like' button** โ
๐๐ & Share with fellow traders if you find it useful!
Crude Oil Short After Finding A Recurring BehaviorAfter I cleared the CL chart, I immediately saw a behavior that we can use for a setup right now.
You see that the highs got cracked, and then immediately price turns to the south. And since we are in a downtrend on Crude, we have a legit Short-Trade at hand.
With the modified Shiff-Fork you see how nice CL is reacting at the U-MLH, where it get's rejected. This level also coincides with the crack level.
I personally would love a pullback up to the crack-zone before shorting it. Maybe the trading Gods give us a gift on this Wednesday.
Talking about Wednesday: today we get the Crude Oil EIA numbers, which will probably move the markets.
However you plan is if you trade it, don't have FOMO. There are many more trades to come in your trading career.
Have a happy hump day ยง8-)
return to solid sellers inspires immediate =SELL market order
**1โ3 Movement:** We've carved out a spicy lower low that absolutely demolished the buyers from that 2โ3 upswing ๐. This makes the sellers from numero uno the absolute CHAD entity in this local structure ๐ช
**4โ5 Action:** Sellers came back virtually unchecked (like they owned the place ๐) until they hit that overlapping resistance zone where both highs 1 and 3 are chilling together like old friends ๐ค
### What's the Vibe? ๐ฎ
* **Continuation Theory:** We're probably heading down faster than my portfolio in 2022 ๐. Those previous upswings (2โ3 and that tiny pump before high 1) were equally one-sided and still got absolutely rekt. No reason to think this time hits different ๐ฏ
* **Elliott Wave Gang:** This could be that legendary 5th wave finale ๐, setting us up for a classic 3-wave correction. (Counting that pre-number-1 uptrend as wave 1 because we're sophisticated like that ๐ง)
* **Dow Theory Confirmation:** We're surfing a downtrend with a potential kiss goodbye at resistance ๐. Higher timeframes are aligned like planets in retrograde โจ
* **Divergence Party:** Hidden bearish divergence across RSI, MFI, and A/D indicators ๐ - the triple threat confirmation we love to see ๐ช
### Chaos Theory Stats (Because We're Built Different) ๐ช๏ธ
* **64% Probability:** If price closes below a zone, there's a 64% chance it'll hit the next zone down. That's better than a coinflip, and we'll take those odds all day ๐ฒ
* **Breakeven Placement:** Strategically positioned because if price returns to the zone above after hitting BE, we've got a 75% chance of revisiting entry (and nobody likes giving back profits) ๐ธ
* **Zone Selection:** Next orange zone below is the target because we're methodical like that ๐ฏ
* **Data Backing:** These stats are from the last 2,500 bars - not some random hopium, actual backtested edge ๐
**Trade Invalid:** If price closes above that orange zone lurking below this text โ ๏ธ
---
*Not financial advice, just one trader's vibe check on the markets* ๐๐
CL1! โ Bearish: back inside the descending channel, watching theThesis (1h):
Price had been sliding within a broad descending channel (grey). The counter-trend recovery shaped a rising channel (orange). Yesterdayโs attempt to resume the advance from the lower orange boundary failed and turned into a bull trap; sellers pushed price back inside the grey channel. Bears confirmed control at the red line (resistance/retest).
Map:
Clear supply pressure after the failed bounce.
While price stays below the red line, the base case is a drift toward the channel median (the โmagnetโ).
A momentum extension could target the lower band later; not the main case yet.
Invalidation:
Sustained acceptance back above the red line and into the orange channel would neutralize the bearish read.
Educational only. Not financial advice.
Lower Highs Signal Weakness: Crude Oil Bears Eye $61 Support
The recent attempt to rally stalled around $65โ66, failing to break above the mid-Bollinger band resistance.
Multiple long upper wicks show selling pressure on rallies.
Price is moving closer to the lower band after failing to hold above the middle band.
The market shows weak upside momentum and dominant selling pressure.
As long as price stays below $65.50, bears maintain control.
If $61.00 support breaks, downside targets are $59.00, then $57.00.
WTI Crude Oil Price Weekly Forecast: Recovery Above $63 SupporteTrend: Upward correction within long-term channel
Current Price: 63.53
โธป
Bullish Scenario
โข Entry: BUY STOP 65.70
โข Targets: 69.80
โข Stop-Loss: 64.00
Bearish Scenario
โข Entry: SELL STOP 63.00
โข Targets: 57.80
โข Stop-Loss: 65.00
โธป
Key Levels
โข Resistance: 65.70, 69.80
โข Support: 63.00, 57.80
โธป
Indicators
โข Alligator: fast EMAs below signal line, sell signal weakens
โข AO Histogram: corrective growth, still negative zone
โข Trend: testing support of ascending channel (82.00โ66.00), recovery potential above $63
โธป
๐ Holding above $63 keeps bullish momentum alive toward $65.70โ69.80. A break below $63 opens deeper correction to $57.80.
Oil bearish below 70.00Oil is bearish below 70.00; it trades below its falling trendline, 200, 50, and 20 SMA.
The price recently recovered from the 61.50 low but ran into resistance at 64.50, the 20 SMA.
Sellers will look to take out support at 61.50 and 60.00 to extend losses towards 55.50, the 2025 low.
Should bulls break above the 20 SMA and 65.00 round number, this opens the door to 67.50 the 200 SMA. A rise above 70.00 creates a higher high.
FC
WTI Crude Oil Trading Analysis: June-August 2025 - 25-AugustWTI Crude Oil Trading Analysis: June-August 2025 Review & Week of August 25th Recommendations
Analysis Date : August 23, 2025
Market : WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL1!)
Methodology : Dual Renko Chart System ($0.25/15min + $0.50/30min)
Volume Profile : 3-Month Monthly Analysis (June-August 2025)
Executive Summary
Market Regime: Oil has completed a major corrective phase from $72 highs to $61 lows, establishing a clear bottoming pattern with strong institutional accumulation. Current setup presents high-probability bullish swing opportunity with excellent risk/reward characteristics.
Current Status : Bullish reversal confirmed with multiple technical confluences at critical support zone. Recommended positioning for upside targets with systematic risk management protocols.
3-Month Market Structure Analysis (June-August 2025)
Phase 1: Distribution & Breakdown (June-July)
Price Action: $72 โ $61 (-15% decline)
June Peak: Heavy red volume distribution at $71-72 level indicated institutional selling
July Decline: Clean Renko downtrend with sustained selling pressure
Volume Profile: Minimal volume during decline, suggesting limited buying interest until $63-64 zone
Phase 2: Accumulation & Reversal Setup (Late July-August)
Price Action: $61 โ $63.50 (+4% recovery)
Institutional Buying: Massive green volume accumulation at $63-65 level
Support Establishment: $62-63 zone showing strong buying interest
Technical Reversal: DEMA crossover confirmed bullish momentum shift
Volume Profile Key Levels (3-Month Analysis)
Major Support Zones :
$62-63: Primary institutional accumulation (heaviest green volume)
$60-61: Secondary support with moderate green volume
$58-59: Ultimate support level (limited historical volume)
Resistance Zones:
$66-67: First institutional resistance (mixed volume)
$69-70: Major distribution zone (heavy red volume from June)
$71-72: Ultimate resistance (peak selling pressure)
Current Technical Analysis (August 23, 2025)
Dual Chart Assessment
$0.50 Chart (Structure Analysis):
Trend: Clear bottoming pattern completed at $61 low
Current Position: Testing above major institutional accumulation zone
Volume Confirmation: Trading within heaviest 3-month green volume cluster
Structure: Higher lows pattern emerging since $61 bottom
$0.25 Chart (Execution Analysis):
DEMA Status: Bullish crossover confirmed (Black above Red at $63.00)
DMI/ADX: +DI gaining momentum, ADX rising through 25 level
Donchian Position: Price above basis, testing toward upper band
Recent Action: 3 consecutive green bricks confirming upward momentum
Technical Confluences Supporting Bull Case
Volume Profile: Massive institutional support at current levels
DEMA Crossover: Clear trend reversal signal confirmed
Momentum: DMI showing bullish shift with strengthening ADX
Structure: Higher low pattern vs. $61 bottom
Risk/Reward: Excellent positioning near major support zone
Market Context & Macro Considerations
Current Oil Market Dynamics
Supply: OPEC+ spare capacity at 5.9 million b/d (bearish)
Demand: China slowdown offset by US resilience (neutral)
Inventories: Below 5-year average (bullish)
Refining: Margins supporting crude demand (bullish)
Federal Reserve Impact
Policy Stance: Potential September rate cut (bullish for commodities)
Dollar Weakness: Could support oil prices
Inflation Expectations: Rising energy costs could influence policy
Seasonal Factors
Driving Season: Peak summer demand ending (bearish)
Hurricane Season: Atlantic activity potential (bullish)
Refinery Maintenance: September turnaround season (mixed)
Conclusion & Strategic Outlook
Near-Term Assessment (1-2 weeks): The current setup represents a high-probability swing trading opportunity with exceptional risk/reward characteristics. The combination of institutional volume support, technical reversal signals, and favorable market structure creates optimal conditions for bullish positioning.
Medium-Term Outlook (1-3 months): Successful navigation through the $66-68 resistance zone could establish a broader recovery toward $70-72 levels. However, macroeconomic headwinds and seasonal factors require careful position management and profit-taking discipline.
Risk Assessment: While the setup is compelling, traders must respect the institutional accumulation levels as ultimate support. Any violation of the $62 zone would invalidate the bullish thesis and require immediate position liquidation.
Strategic Advantage: The dual Renko chart system provides both structural clarity and tactical precision, enabling confident position sizing and systematic risk management. The monthly volume profile offers institutional-level insight typically unavailable to retail traders.
Document Classification: Trading Analysis & Recommendations
Risk Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. All trading involves risk of loss.
A return to solid sellers in a downtrend paves the way for =SELL
**1โ3 Movement:** We've carved out a spicy lower low that absolutely demolished the buyers from that 2โ3 upswing ๐. This makes the sellers from numero uno the absolute CHAD entity in this local structure ๐ช
**4โ5 Action:** Sellers came back virtually unchecked (like they owned the place ๐) until they hit that overlapping resistance zone where both highs 1 and 3 are chilling together like old friends ๐ค
### What's the Vibe? ๐ฎ
* **Continuation Theory:** We're probably heading down faster than my portfolio in 2022 ๐. Those previous upswings (2โ3 and that tiny pump before high 1) were equally one-sided and still got absolutely rekt. No reason to think this time hits different ๐ฏ
* **Elliott Wave Gang:** This could be that legendary 5th wave finale ๐, setting us up for a classic 3-wave correction. (Counting that pre-number-1 uptrend as wave 1 because we're sophisticated like that ๐ง)
* **Dow Theory Confirmation:** We're surfing a downtrend with a potential kiss goodbye at resistance ๐. Higher timeframes are aligned like planets in retrograde โจ
* **Divergence Party:** Hidden bearish divergence across RSI, MFI, and A/D indicators ๐ - the triple threat confirmation we love to see ๐ช
### Chaos Theory Stats (Because We're Built Different) ๐ช๏ธ
* **64% Probability:** If price closes below a zone, there's a 64% chance it'll hit the next zone down. That's better than a coinflip, and we'll take those odds all day ๐ฒ
* **Breakeven Placement:** Strategically positioned because if price returns to the zone above after hitting BE, we've got a 75% chance of revisiting entry (and nobody likes giving back profits) ๐ธ
* **Zone Selection:** Next orange zone below is the target because we're methodical like that ๐ฏ
* **Data Backing:** These stats are from the last 2,500 bars - not some random hopium, actual backtested edge ๐
**Trade Invalid:** If price closes above that orange zone lurking below this text โ ๏ธ
---
*Not financial advice, just one trader's vibe check on the markets* ๐๐
WTI Crude Oil โ India Keeps Buying Russian Oil Despite U.S. SancSymbol: USCRUDE
Timeframe: Weekly
Current price: 63.53
โธป
Bearish scenario
โข Entry: SELL STOP 62.50
โข Targets: 59.38, 56.25, 53.12
โข Stop: 64.50
Alternative bearish scenario
โข Entry: SELL LIMIT 65.62
โข Targets: 59.38, 56.25, 53.12
โข Stop: 68.00
โธป
Key levels
Resistance: 65.62, 68.75, 71.88
Support: 62.50, 59.38, 56.25, 53.12
Indicators
โข Bollinger Bands โ pointing down, resistance at 65.62.
โข MACD โ negative zone, trend still bearish.
โข Stochastic โ overbought, risk of reversal.
โธป
๐ WTI is testing 62.50 support. Break lower โ downside to 59.38โ53.12. If price rebounds near 65.62, sellers could re-enter with tight stops.