LPX to fall 9% over next weekAside from the expected strong Q4 earnings, due to the hurricaines, we should see LPX fall 9% to 25.11.
This current rally isn't doing well, showing a small 3-day consolidation, ATR oscillator confirms a weakening in range after a strong move (range strengthened) down. RSI found support at around 51, this is rather bullish, however price action gives too many indications of weakness on this rally.
We could be on an "a" correction wave and have just completed a 5-wave cycle. Note that on 7/18, there was a longer than usual correction, lasting more than a month and pushed the RSI below 50, bearish. Corrections have become smaller and smaller, this is unhealthy price action for a trend. More and more people are holding, there's no healthy selling. If there is no selling, the price can't move higher.
Also setting up for a correction on its monthly chart, as well
Take a look at this daily Renko chart for S/R and the trendline
Trade ideas
Louisiana-Pacific Renko chart Take a look at this chart for LPX, a company that makes wood panel siding for homes. It has a market cap of around 4 billion, a P/E of 15.32 and its earnings have grown 271% this year. We are currently in a clear up-trend. The hurricanes have created demand for this company, giving it support for a mid-term move higher over the next quarter. For now, look to buy around the 21.78 level of support. RSI at S/R levels looks strong as well. However, volume appears to be weakening, this needs to be watched for as we are at a key area of resistance.
Can't wait to see this unfold. Will update at the end of the week.
Buy LPX versus Sell-Short HDI think this picture speaks a thousand words all by itself.
LPX makes plywood, the essential ingredient in building houses and additions.
These two usually bounce along to the beat of the same drummer - the health of the housing market.
You can see quite a divergence in the two of them here and it appears that LPX is finding it a bit hard to go any lower.
It also appears that HD is having trouble making further headway to the upside, or at least has run out of enthusiastic buyers up here.
If you take a look at pure valuation alone, HD has only earned 4% on its current market valuation in the past year, so in my mind I view that as quite high and it has little room for error. Despite the fact that HD is buying back stock and has decent guidance on its forecasts from inside the company.
I believe I will risk only 5% on this trade in order to make 10% in the next 30 days.
Tim 3:41 PM EST, Monday, June 10, 2013
HD 77.88 -0.85 on the day
LPX 16.75 last.



