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New Zealand Dollar/Australian Dollar

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AUDNZD Will Fall! Short! Take a look at our analysis for AUDNZD. Time Frame: 2h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is on a crucial zone of supply 1.149. The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 1.146 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
AUDNZD: Expecting Bearish Continuation! Here is Why: The charts are full of distraction, disturbance and are a graveyard of fear and greed which shall not cloud our judgement on the current state of affairs in the AUDNZD pair price action which suggests a high likelihood of a coming move down. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Short
by UnitedSignals
1
Long trade 📘 Trade Journal — AUDNZD (Updated) Buyside Trade — London Session AM Mon 1st Dec 2025 — 5:00 AM 🔵 Trade Details Pair: AUDNZD Direction: Buyside Date: 1st Dec 2025 Time: 5:00 AM Session: London Session AM 🟩 Execution Block Entry: 1.14546 Stop Loss: 1.14489 (0.05%) Profit Target: 1.14935 (0.340%) Risk–Reward Ratio: 6.82R 🟧 Model & Structure Trade follows the internal structure shift seen after the sell-side liquidity sweep Entry Type: 1-minute PD array sequence respected: SSL sweep (Sell-side Sweep) → BOS (Break of Structure) → FVG/OB (Fair Value Gap & order Block) → retracement entry Clean displacement from the FVG triggered the continuation setup trade execution. 🟦 Bias & Higher-Timeframe Context H1 shows exhaustion into previous delivery range Clear sell-side liquidity failure at multi-session lows Price retraced into the OB + FVG cluster near 1.1450 (mitigation) We assume London AM session we continue with a expansion towards the inefficiency overhead at 1.1493 🟩 Outcome / Trade in session TP aligns with the 1-hour imbalance fill Strong continuation expected once VWMA/EMA cross supports structure
Long
by davidjulien369
Update AUDNZDIn our watchlist analysis, we were completely bullish on this currency pair. Now, looking at the 15-minute timeframe, we can see a triangle pattern has formed. This pattern is inherently bullish and aligns with the trend, so it could present a very good opportunity. Besides, the compression that has formed is like a ticking time bomb, and at any moment, the price could break either up or down. If it breaks downward, we’re not concerned since it goes against the trend in the longer cycle. But if it moves upward, we can catch it either with a candlestick confirmation or with a stop-buy. In this situation, my preference is the stop-buy approach. Thank you for your support — boosting the post helps more traders see the analysis, grow our community, and learn from each other. 🙏📉
Long
by PouyanFa
AUD/NZD: New Short Level at 1.1496 After Trend BreakAUD/NZD has created a new short level at 1.1496 after a strong uptrend showed signs of reversal. A major fair value gap formed and closed below a key rejection point, hinting that buyers may be losing control. The level aligns with the start of a heavy volume cluster and the beginning of the FVG, making it a high-quality pullback short setup. I’m waiting for price to return to 1.1496, with a stop at 1.1573 and take-profit at 1.1419 (likely to be tightened lower).
by Trader_Dale
Weekly WatchlistA very good opportunity on this pair is that the overall trend is a strong uptrend, and the price has now reached a support level. Definitely, we should be considering a long position. There are two ways to enter: The riskier option is to open a long position as soon as the market opens on Monday. The second way, as I’ve drawn on the chart, is to enter after confirmation. Of course, a proper stop should be placed so that we don’t get stopped out by a fake shadow below the support. For now, we’re not considering a short position, but we’re monitoring the market, and if the support breaks, we’ll update the analysis.
by PouyanFa
AUDNZD December 2025 fundamental analysisAUD/NZD in December 2025 is likely to trade with a modest bullish bias for AUD (higher AUD/NZD), but within a relatively contained range rather than in a strong trend. Overall, this points more to a cautious “buy on dips” stance than an aggressive directional view.​ Macro and rate outlook The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) projects Australian growth a bit above 3% in 2025 with underlying inflation around the middle of its 2–3% target, and policy is expected to ease only gradually from here. This implies still‑supportive real yields for AUD relative to peers, with no aggressive cutting cycle signalled into late 2025.​ The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has already cut the Official Cash Rate to about 2.25% and now signals a neutral stance, with its own projections showing the policy rate staying below the estimated neutral level (around 3%) for several years before gradually rising. That leaves NZ in more clearly stimulatory territory than Australia, which tends to be mildly negative for NZD against AUD over a 6–12 month horizon.​ Market pricing and forecasts Several medium‑ and long‑term AUD/NZD forecasts cluster around a December 2025 level above 1.15. These projections broadly reflect expectations that the prior NZD strength phase has faded and that relative rate and growth dynamics now slightly favour AUD.​ Recent commentary also notes that AUD/NZD has been under pressure when the RBNZ surprised with earlier larger cuts, but the latest move is seen as the end of that easing cycle, limiting further NZD‑positive rate surprises from here. As markets transition from “RBNZ cutting aggressively” to “both central banks on hold or gently easing,” idiosyncratic NZD support from policy is likely to diminish.​ Relative drivers: growth, commodities, China Australia’s outlook is more leveraged to broader global and Chinese growth and to commodity demand (particularly metals), which most baseline scenarios see stabilising or modestly improving into 2026. New Zealand’s fortunes are more heavily tied to dairy and agriculture, where banks describe upside risks but from a weaker growth starting point after several quarters of economic contraction.​ If global and Chinese demand stabilise as central banks in the region ease only gradually, that mix is typically more constructive for AUD than for NZD. However, both economies sit in similar low‑inflation, low‑rate regimes, so any advantage is incremental rather than dramatic, reinforcing the view of a grind higher rather than a sharp trend.​ Trading verdict for December 2025 Fundamentally, modestly stronger Australian growth, slightly less stimulatory policy and better leverage to a stabilising global cycle give AUD a small edge over NZD into December 2025. On a fundamental basis, AUD/NZD looks more like a cautious buy on dips than a sell in December, assuming no major negative shock to China or global risk sentiment; position sizing should reflect that the expected edge is modest, not extreme.
Long
by Oneirotrade
#043: Long Investment Opportunity on AUD/NZD The AUD/NZD pair is approaching a key phase in which both structural price dynamics and macroeconomic forces are beginning to significantly align. After several sessions of downward pressure, the pair has found stability near a historically responsive demand zone, from which buyers have begun to show the first signs of interest. Recent candlesticks highlight a slowdown in bearish momentum, with wicks suggesting absorption and renewed buyer participation. From a macroeconomic perspective, the pair remains supported by the evolving divergence between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Hello, I'm Forex Trader Andrea Russo, author of the book "The Institutional Code of Forex, 14 Steps to Read the Markets Like a Bank," available on Amazon. I'm an independent trader and money manager, and I thank you in advance for your time. Australia continues to experience persistent inflationary pressures, with the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) release coming in higher than expected. This reduces the likelihood of short-term rate cuts and keeps the RBA relatively firmer than other central banks in the region. On the other hand, New Zealand is signaling increasing openness to monetary easing in the coming months, as domestic economic indicators weaken. This policy divide—aggressive stability versus dovish bias—naturally creates underlying upside pressure on the AUD/NZD in the medium term. Market sentiment reinforces this structural trend. Retail positioning is heavily skewed toward the short side according to leading sentiment indicators, a pattern that historically tends to fuel a continuation scenario in the opposite direction. Inflows into AUD-linked assets also remain stable, with commodity currencies benefiting from the recalibration of global risk. Technically, the pair is at the lower end of its recent multi-day range. This area is repeatedly shaken as a pocket of liquidity where institutional traders accumulate positions ahead of directional expansions. If the pair holds current support levels, the next structural target will be near the medium-range equilibrium, with further upside potential if market conditions continue to favor the Australian dollar. Traders monitoring the AUD/NZD may find this juncture particularly relevant, as macroeconomic alignment, sentiment imbalance, and technical positioning converge. As always, volatility should be monitored closely, especially around upcoming data releases from Australia and New Zealand, which could provide further catalysts for a directional move.
Long
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
AUD/NZD dip-buyers to enter the fray?Monthly flow reveals that the AUD/NZD cross (Australian dollar versus the New Zealand dollar) recently touched gloves with resistance from NZ$1.1488. Assuming price ends the month at current levels, this would also deliver a bearish shooting star pattern. Meanwhile, over on the daily chart, the trend to the upside is clear, and, for any harmonic traders reading, you will acknowledge that the latest pullback – prompted by the RBNZ’s hawkish cut – is testing an interesting area of support between NZ$1.1381 and NZ$1.1414. This is made up of a 100% projection ratio (possible AB=CD base), a 1.618% Fibonacci projection, and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Although monthly flow is testing resistance, the previous test of that level failed to deliver a meaningful low, therefore, technically, this could see soft support from sellers. As a result, the daily trend and the potential AB=CD configuration could be an area where dip-buyers attempt to make a show. Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill
Long
by FP Markets
NZD: Don't trust the flightless bird rallyHello traders I have seen this Thanksgiving week movie many times. Low volumes/illiquidity meets future positioning. The USD December rate cut has been priced in for a few days now. The RBNZ indicated that it MAY be the end of the easing cycle. Australian CPI remains elevated which eliminates any short term rate cuts. We are at the beginning of a normalization of Central Bank tightening/cuts which in my opinion is still due to the COVID-19 pandemic/elevated inflation/USA trade policy hangover. The technical picture is clear. NZD has been WAY below the 200/100 day MA death cross for some time now. The pair has just bumped up against the 50 day MA. The pair has also been oversold. AUD is exactly the opposite NZD 10Y yield is at 4.37 AUD 10Y yield is at 4.49 USD yield is hovering around 4.00 Gold was rejected at the 4171 level. Investors are constantly chasing ROI and although the USD yield is below the Antipodeans' yield, it may change in a heartbeat if the December FOMC rate cut is "hawkish" since the US Supreme Court decision on the tariffs is still pending. Yes, I have said it a million times. To drive the point home, take a look at a BRICS country, South Africa. beautiful country with so much potential. ZA 10Y is 8.58. However the country is still plagued by high unemployment, struggling with generating electricity, not a highly trusted vehicle for international investment but one can certainly consider investing a fraction of available capital in the high earning bonds. Long story short, I have entered into a long AUD/NZD position. Please do your own research and best of luck. Happy Thanksgiving.
by jvrfxalerts
2
Long trade Wed 26th Nov 25 — 13:30 PM (NY Session PM) Entry TF: 5-Min 🟩 1. Trade Parameters Pair: AUDNZD Direction: Buy-Side Entry: 1.14459 Stop Loss: 1.14377 Take Profit: 1.14740 Risk–Reward: 5.6R 🟨 2. Higher-Timeframe Context HTF (15m / 30m / 1H) structure: Market formed a deep displacement (observed 1Hr Chart) down during Asia → took equal lows at 1.14300–1.14320. Followed by a strong NY recovery leg, leaving multiple clean FVGs in discount. Price reclaimed the WMA + EMA cluster, signalling a structural shift. 1H candle shows a wick rejection + close above mid-range, aligning with bullish continuation. 1Hr Chart 🟧 3. Liquidity Liquidity removed before entry Aggressive sweep of the Asian low (1.1430). Equal lows formed at 1.1437 → then taken. Clear liquidity purge to draw in late sellers. Liquidity above (targets) 1.14740 (clean buy-side liquidity + inefficiency). Prior NY swing high sits above FVG. A void from earlier displacement needs filling. 🟥 4. SMC / ICT Technical Model Breakdown ✔ Model: FVG + BOS + Shift in Orderflow BOS at approx. 1.1456 confirms accumulation reversal. Price pulls back into a refined 5-min FVG + micro OB. EMAs flip to bullish stack (yellow over blue). Entry occurs at the equilibrium inside the pullback. Entry TF: 5-Min Key confluences: MSB + BOS alignment. Multiple overlapping FVGs acting as support. Reclaim of discounted zone. Strong upward displacement candle pre-entry. 🟪 6. Sentiment / Narrative Narratively: Market created compression into the low (inducement). NY PM session usually drives expansion after morning accumulation. AUD strength rotated strongly in NY hours. NZD weaker across currencies → strengthening the long bias. Sweep → reclaim → enter at discount → deliver to imbalance. 🟫 7. Trade Outcome Status: Pending / active
Long
by davidjulien369