Dollar Finds Support Ahead of U.S. Data and GDP; SNB Leaves RateDollar Finds Support Ahead of U.S. Data and GDP; SNB Leaves Rates Unchanged
The U.S. dollar stayed strong this week as traders waited for important U.S. jobless claims and GDP numbers that could guide the Federal Reserve’s next decision.
On Thursday morning, the Dollar Index traded near 97.55 after touching a two-week high on Wednesday. The move came after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank faces a “challenging situation” as it tries to balance high inflation with a weak job market.
Key U.S. Data in Focus
Jobless claims due later today are expected to show around 230k, suggesting the labor market is still strong.
GDP figures and PCE inflation data later this week will give more signals about economic strength.
Several Fed officials are also speaking this week, which could move markets.
Analysts say if jobless claims remain low, the dollar could get stronger because it means the Fed may delay more rate cuts.
Europe and Switzerland
In Europe, EUR/USD stayed flat near 1.1738. Analysts warn a fall below 1.1725 could push the pair down toward 1.1660.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) kept its interest rate at zero, stopping a series of seven straight cuts. After the news, USD/CHF edged up to 0.7958.
Asia Updates
USD/JPY slipped 0.1% to 148.69 after strong gains the previous day.
BoJ minutes showed some members want to consider raising rates in the future.
AUD/USD rose 0.2% to 0.6592 after Australian inflation came in higher than expected.
Outlook
The dollar remains supported as traders balance U.S. economic strength with Fed policy expectations. For now, the focus is on today’s jobless claims and GDP data, which could set the next move for the dollar.
✍️ By Md Golam Rabbani
Trade ideas
Dxy bullish | 98.012The US Dollar Index (DX) appears to be completing its Wave 4 correction within the Elliott Wave structure, signaling a potential bullish reversal. After a period of consolidation and pullback, price action is stabilizing above key Fibonacci support levels, suggesting that the corrective phase may be ending. Technical indicators are starting to shift bullish, with early signs of momentum recovery and possible bullish divergence on lower timeframes. A confirmed breakout above short-term resistance would likely validate the start of Wave 5, targeting a new swing high. Overall, the setup favors a bullish continuation as Wave 5 unfolds, in alignment with the primary uptrend.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Bullish Pullback & Long Setup (2H Char1. Price Action & Structure
The chart shows a bullish channel (red shaded area) where price has been making higher highs and higher lows since around September 18.
Price recently reached the upper trendline of the channel and is now pulling back toward the middle/lower zone.
2. Key Levels
Support Zone: Around 97.575 – 97.257 (blue labels).
This is where the chart suggests a potential buy/long entry.
The gray box marks the area where price is expected to reverse to the upside.
Stop-Loss Level: Slightly below 97.257, around 97.238 (red level).
If price breaks below this, it would invalidate the bullish setup.
Target Point: 98.799 – 98.805
This is the projected move upward, shown with the big arrow.
3. Expected Scenario
The zigzag line indicates that price may dip into the support zone, consolidate, and then bounce back up strongly toward the target point.
This is a long (buy) trade setup with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio since the potential reward is much bigger than the stop loss risk.
4. Risk–Reward Ratio
Risk (downside): Around 0.3 points (from 97.575 entry to 97.238 stop).
Reward (upside): Around 1.2 points (from 97.575 entry to 98.799 target).
That’s roughly 4:1 R:R — a very good trade setup if price respects the support zone.
Summary
✅ Bullish Bias – Price is in an uptrend channel.
📉 Buy Zone: 97.575 – 97.257
📊 Target: 98.799 – 98.805
🛑 Stop Loss: Below 97.238
🎯 Expectation: Short-term dip followed by a strong bullish rally.
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY): Overbought Market & Pullback
Dollar Index is testing a major daily resistance cluster now.
With a high probability, the market will retrace from that.
A double top pattern that was formed on an hourly time frame
indicates a clear overbought state.
The index may drop to 97.65
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DXY Bullish Channel Setup with 1:4.5 RRR (Entry 97.50 → Target 9Chart Analysis
Trend:
Price is moving inside a rising parallel channel (marked in red with blue borders).
Currently near the mid-to-upper side of the channel.
Setup Highlighted:
Entry Point: Around 97.50 – 97.52 (support zone).
Stop Loss: Around 97.15 – 97.18 (below support and channel bottom).
Target Point: Around 98.97 – 98.98 (near channel top).
Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR):
Risk: ~0.33 points (97.50 → 97.18).
Reward: ~1.46 points (97.50 → 98.98).
RRR ≈ 1:4.5, which is a strong setup.
Price Action:
The chart suggests a retest of support (97.50 area) before a bullish continuation.
If buyers hold this level, upward momentum could push toward the 98.90–99.00 zone.
Invalidation:
A breakdown below 97.15 would invalidate the long setup and may push price toward 96.80 – 96.50 support levels.
📌 Summary
Bias: Bullish (as long as price holds above 97.15).
Plan: Wait for a pullback to the entry zone (97.50) for confirmation.
Target: 98.90 – 99.00.
Stop Loss: Below 97.15.
Strong RRR trade idea within the bullish channel.
Importance of DXY for all CFD and Futures Assets The 1H DXY chart shows a clear shift in orderflow from bearish to bullish, framed within an auction-theory context where price continuously seeks liquidity to facilitate rebalancing. Early in the week, supply overwhelmed demand, driving the dollar lower into a region of resting liquidity (sell-side liquidity/SSL). This liquidity grab served as the catalyst for demand to reassert itself, evident in the sharp recovery that flipped prior supply zones into demand. The chart highlights a demand flip and multiple demand re-entries, showing how buyers defended levels once liquidity was secured.
Auction-wise, the market auctioned downward until sellers exhausted at a support zone near SSL, where bids were reintroduced. This led to an imbalance that buyers corrected by driving higher, reclaiming inefficiencies (noted in the imbalance box). Subsequent consolidation acted as a re-auctioning phase to validate demand before continuation. Now, the bullish orderflow is steering price toward resting liquidity overhead (draw on liquidity), with demand zones forming higher as the market reprices.
In short: orderflow reveals a demand-driven transition, with the auction process shifting value upward after clearing downside liquidity. The next key behavior will be how DXY reacts once it taps into overhead resistance and whether new demand sustains the auction higher or supply reasserts.
DXY: The Market Is Looking Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break below the current local range around 97.434 will confirm the new direction downwards with the target being the next key level of 97.299 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
DXY testing trend resistance after Powell comments
The dollar clawed back some ground after Jerome Powell’s latest remarks, but I’m not convinced this bounce has legs. With the Fed now leaning dovish, the bias still favours more downside unless we see consistent cracks in the jobs market to justify the two cuts priced in for 2025.
Powell reiterated on Tuesday that inflation risks are skewed higher while employment risks are tilted lower, adding: “Two-sided risks mean there is no risk-free path.” Translation: he’s keeping his options open ahead of the October meeting. Fed chatter will remain front and centre, with Mary Daly up later today, jobless claims tomorrow, and the key PCE inflation reading on Friday.
The dollar index is now testing resistance around 97.60–97.80 area — a confluence of the 21-day EMA, broken support, and a trendline. Until this area breaks, it’s hard to get bullish. The broader picture of lower highs and lows still screams corrective.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Dollar Headed Higher?Looking at the price of the dollar from a daily perspective, we can see that price accumulated for about 3 full trading weeks. Manipulation took place soon after, followed by 3 strong bullish candles.
Now that bulls have entered the market after the manipulation, I fully expect the distribution to take place after retesting the bullish FVG.
Since this is the dollar we're talking about, this price movement will most likely affect the price of other assets including Gold and dollar pairs.
Targeting the daily POI/Medium BSL.
DXY – Potential Inverted Head & Shoulders FormationTVC:DXY
The DXY is currently consolidating in a way that suggests the development of an inverted head and shoulders pattern. We have support distributed between $96.37 and $96.21 , creating a potential base for this pattern. On the upside, the recent breakout through $97.45 highlights bullish intent, with the next critical level being the daily fractal resistance at $97.82 , which acts as the neckline .
Breakout Implications
A confirmed break and close above $97.82 would validate the pattern and shift momentum toward higher targets. If this scenario plays out, extension levels become the next logical zones of interest:
127% Fibonacci extension: $98.60 - bearish butterfly pattern
161.8% Fibonacci extension: $99.26 - bearish crab pattern
200% Fibonacci extension: $99.38 - H&S default target
Risk Factors & Harmonic Patterns
While the bullish case is clear above $97.82 , caution is warranted. Harmonic patterns may begin to take shape around $98.60 and $99.26 , which often serve as areas of exhaustion or reversal. These zones could lead to temporary pullbacks, and in a broader context, may even reassert the prevailing downtrend seen in recent months.
Key Takeaway
The confirmation or rejection of the $97.82 neckline will be pivotal in defining the next directional phase for the DXY. We should monitor price behavior carefully at each Fibonacci extension, balancing the potential for continuation against the risk of harmonic-driven reversals.
Safe Trades,
André Cardoso
US DOLLAR LIQUIDITY GAMES MAPThe U.S. Dollar is testing traders resolve.
Price action keeps pressing higher, and a daily close above 97.394 would confirm a classic “fractal low” — the kind of structural pivot that lures late buyers before the real move unfolds.
3 Key Insights
Macro Calendar – Stay alert:
Thu – Final Q2 GDP, Weekly Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders.
Fri – Core PCE Price Index, Personal Income & Spending, University of Michigan Sentiment (final).
These are the week’s steering currents for USD flows.
A daily close above 97.394 is the key trigger to confirm a fresh leg higher.
• EUR/USD short bias remains valid while DXY stays bid, but expect intraday volatility around data releases.
DXY – Post-Fed Cut: What’s Next for the Dollar?The Fed has cut rates — but the dollar didn’t flinch. No major reaction, which suggests the move was priced in.
I currently see two possible scenarios unfolding on DXY:
Scenario 1: Triangle Completed – More Downside Ahead
If we’ve finished a triangle correction, a break below 96.20 could confirm the move and open up downside toward $95–$92.
Chart:
Scenario 2: Ending Diagonal in Wave 5
Alternatively, the recent low may mark the end of a 5th wave diagonal, completing Wave 3 of the broader decline. If so, we could see choppy corrective action before any larger moves.
Chart:
Key level to watch: Break below $96.20
If price closes above $100.25 I will review the analysis as this may indicate the downward trend is complete.
USDX: demand zone holds but downside pressure remainsThe US dollar index remains under pressure, trading within a descending channel. The recent bounce from the support zone around 96.30–96.90 stalled at the EMAs and the supply zone near 98.30–98.60, where sellers reappeared. On the 4H chart, price has failed to sustain above 97.80, keeping the bearish scenario in play.
It is also important to note that the index is trading below the 200 EMA, reinforcing the bearish bias and signaling that sustainable recovery is less likely without strong fundamental catalysts.
If 96.90 breaks, the next downside target is 96.30, followed by 95.40. Stronger bearish momentum could even push the index toward 94.00, signaling further dollar weakness. For now, 96.30 acts as the key support barrier.
From a fundamental perspective, the dollar index remains weighed down by expectations of a dovish Fed and lower yields. Any hawkish surprise from Fed officials could lift price back toward 98.50, but the structure still favors bearish continuation.
This is exactly the kind of situation where market expectations diverge from reality, and the longer it lasts the more it feels like a trend reversal is near. But as always, emotions must be set aside — we wait for clear signals, not illusions.
DXY Dollar Heist: Can You Escape @100?🔥 DXY Dollar Index Bank Heist Plan (Swing Trade) 🔥
Asset: DXY Dollar Index 💵Plan: Bullish 📈Thief Trading Style: Layered Limit Order Strategy 🕵️♂️
🏦 The Heist Plan 🏦
Dear Thief OG's, Ladies & Gentlemen, get ready to pull off the ultimate DXY heist! 💰 We're using the Thief Layering Strategy to stack multiple limit orders and maximize our loot. Follow the plan, adjust to your risk, and let’s escape with the cash! 🚨
📈 Entry: The Break-In
Strategy: Deploy multiple buy limit orders to layer your entries like a master thief 🕴️. Suggested levels:
98.00 💸
98.20 💸
98.40 💸
98.60 💸
Flexibility: Add more layers based on your risk appetite or market conditions 📊.
Pro Tip: Set an alert on TradingView to catch the breakout or pullback at these levels 🚨.
🛑 Stop Loss: The Escape Route
Thief SL: Set at 97.50 to protect your stash 🛡️.
Risk Management: Adjust SL based on your lot size, risk tolerance, and number of layered entries ⚖️.
Warning: Don’t get caught! This is a high-stakes heist—stick to your risk plan 🔥.
🎯 Target: The Getaway
Police Barricade: Resistance at 100.30 🚓—watch out!
Our Target: Take profits at 100.00 to escape with the loot before the market traps you 🏃♂️💨.
🧠 Why This Heist?
The DXY is showing bullish momentum based on real-time market data 📡:
Macro Factors: Strong USD demand driven by economic indicators (check COT reports, geopolitics, and intermarket analysis) 🌍.
Technical Setup: Layered entries align with swing trade pullbacks and key support zones 📉.
Scalpers 👀: Stick to quick long-side trades with trailing SL to lock in profits 💰.
⚠️ Trading Alerts: Stay Sharp!
News Releases: Avoid new trades during high-impact news to dodge volatility traps 🚫.
Position Management: Use trailing stop-loss to secure your profits and stay safe 🛡️.
💪 Boost the Heist!
Hit the Boost Button to power up our Thief Trading Style! 🚀 Every like and view strengthens our crew, helping us rob the market with precision. Let’s make money and vanish like pros! 🤑
Stay tuned for the next heist plan, Thief OG’s! 🕵️♂️🎉
EUR/USD ShortEUR/USD Short Position Analysis
Currently holding short positions on EUR/USD initiated during the Asian session. The trade setup shows a bearish bias with multiple profit targets clearly marked on the 5-minute chart:
Primary Target: Target 2 around 1.17540 level
Additional Targets: Target 1 at 1.17679 and Target 3 at 1.17360
The chart displays key horizontal resistance/support levels with dashed lines, and the current price action suggests continued downward momentum toward the designated targets. Risk management levels and entry points appear well-defined based on the technical structure shown.
Trade Status: Active short positions with systematic target approach for profit-taking.
H4 DXY Market UpdateRight now, DXY is showing signs of indecision. No clear direction has been established yet.
I’m currently waiting for price to move towards one of the Turning Points (TNP) — either TNP A (resistance) or TNP B (support) — before making any trading decisions.
For now, I’ve set alerts at both zones and will keep monitoring closely.