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DXY | Bullish Reversal from IFVG – Targeting 99.50 Supply ZoneHello Billionaires!! In DXY D1 Projection we know The US Dollar Index has tapped into the Imbalance/Fair Value Gap (IFVG) and shown signs of bullish reaction after sweeping Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL). This aligns with a potential reversal model aiming towards higher liquidity levels. 🔹 Key Points: SSL swept, confirming liquidity grab. Price reacting from IFVG as demand zone. Short-term retracement expected, followed by continuation. Targeting the BPR supply zone around 99.50 and eventually Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) above 100.00. As long as DXY holds above the IFVG zone, bullish continuation remains the primary outlook.
TVC:DXYLong
by AliyanFX
Bearish drop off?The US Dollar Index (DXY) has rejected off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 97.85 1st Support: 96.61 1st Resistance: 98.70 Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICmarkets
DOLLAR INDEX DXY WEEKLY ANALYSISDXY is trading near 97.70, attempting a rebound from the 96.90–97.00 support zone (since last week), aligned with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement. Prices are facing a confluence of resistance including fib level 0.786 & middle Bollinger band near 97.70 towards approaching the falling trendline resistance around 98.00–98.10, which will be a key inflection level for direction. RSI has bounced from near-oversold (45 zone) and is pointing higher, suggesting mild bullish momentum in the short term. On the downside, a failure to hold 97.40 (fib level 0.618) could extend weakness toward 96.90, towards the falling trendline support. This week’s heavy US data calendar (Powell’s speech, PMIs, GDP, PCE) could provide catalysts for a breakout move. Overall, bias is neutral-to-bullish in the short term unless 97.40 - 97.00 zone is breached decisively.
TVC:DXYLong
by Nadia_farhat
DXY 4H Outlook – Key Levels & Potential Scenarios💡 DXY 4H Outlook – Key Levels & Potential Scenarios Price is currently testing an important supply zone (97.7 – 98.0) after showing a strong recovery. From here, I’m watching two possible outcomes: 🔼 Bullish Scenario If buyers manage to hold above the 97.7 – 98.0 supply zone, we could see continuation toward the next major resistance between 98.2 – 98.6. Break & retest of 98.0 would be a strong confirmation for buyers. 🔽 Bearish Scenario If the 97.7 – 98.0 area rejects strongly, price could reverse back down toward the demand zone (96.4 – 96.6) for liquidity grab. This zone has previously acted as a strong reaction point. ⚔️ Key Levels to Watch Resistance: 98.0 | 98.2 | 98.6 Support: 97.4 | 96.6 📊 This setup gives both bulls and bears opportunities depending on how price reacts at these zones. ✅ If you enjoy this type of analysis, make sure to follow me so you don’t miss the next updates. 💼 For those who want account management services (personal or funded accounts), feel free to reach out – I can help you grow consistently with risk management and proven strategies.
TVC:DXYLong
by ntulilwageophrey
US DOLLAR War Map stays simple right nowThe dollar’s been sliding for months, but we finally saw the range lows taken out after the FOMC spike, and that sets up the next move. Here’s how I’m reading it: Rotation lower is still the logical path unless politics or surprise news change the game. On the DXY chart, I’m watching for a heavy-volume node to act as a target for a short-term pullback higher. For cross-pairs, that means I’ll look for short setups while using the recent bullish dollar lows as day-to-day reference points. Key level to watch: around 98.7, where heavy bearish order-flow has been building. If the market keeps moving, it’s a straightforward trade plan: stay positive, take intraday signals, and let the bigger down-cycle play out.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by CORE5DAN
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Weekly 2025Summary: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has corrected down to the key 38.60% Fibonacci retracement zone and is currently showing signs of a potential bullish reversal, bolstered by a clear hidden bullish divergence on the MACD. This may signal a renewed rally toward key upside targets, especially if the 93.3–99.9 support Zone holds. Chart Context: Current Price: 98.864 Key Fib Support: 38.60% @ 99.906, 48.60% @ 93.310, 61.80% @ 87.476 Support Zone: 93.3–99.9 USD Hidden Bullish Divergence: Observed both in 2021 and now again in 2025 on the MACD Trendline Support: Long-term ascending trendline holding since 2011 Fib Extension Targets (Trend-Based): TP1: 115.000 TP2: 120.000 TP3: 126.666 Key Technical Observations: Fibonacci Confluence: DXY is bouncing from a strong Fib cluster between 93.310 and 99.906, historically acting as a reversal zone. Hidden Bullish Divergence: Suggests potential upside despite price weakness. Downtrend Retest: Price may revisit 93.3–87.4 before confirming full reversal. Breakout Pathway: Green dashed arrows outline the likely recovery trajectory toward 114–126 range. Indicators: MACD: Showing hidden bullish divergence and potential signal crossover. Trendline Support: Holding intact from 2021 low. Fib Levels: Used for retracement and trend-based extension. Fundamental Context: Interest Rate Outlook: If U.S. inflation remains controlled and Fed signals future hikes or sustained high rates, DXY strength may persist. Global Liquidity & Recession Risk: If risk aversion returns, the dollar may rise as a safe haven. Geopolitical Risks: Conflicts, trade tensions, or BRICS dedollarization efforts may create volatility. Our Recent research suggests the Fed may maintain higher-for-longer rates due to resilient labor markets and sticky core inflation. This supports bullish USD bias unless macro shifts rapidly. Why DXY Could Continue Strengthening: Robust U.S. economic performance & monetary policy divergence U.S. GDP growth (~2.7% in 2024) outpaces developed peers (~1.7%), supporting stronger USD The Fed maintains restrictive rates (4.25–4.50%), while the ECB pivots to easing, widening the policy and yield gap . Inflation resilience and Fed hawkishness Labor markets remain tight, keeping inflation “sticky” and delaying expected rate cuts; market-implied cuts for 2025 have been pushed into 2026 Fed officials (e.g. Kugler) emphasize ongoing tariff-driven inflation, suggesting rates will stay elevated. Safe-haven and yield-seeking capital flows With global risks, capital favors USD-denominated assets for yield and stability Why the Dollar Might Face Headwinds Fiscal expansion & trade uncertainty Ballooning U.S. deficits (~$3.3 trn new debt) and erratic tariff policy undermine confidence in USD Wall Street’s consensus bearish position. Major banks largely expect a weaker dollar through 2025–26. However, this crowded bearish sentiment poses a risk of a sharp rebound if data surprises occur barons Tariff policy risks Trump's new tariffs could dampen dollar demand—yet if perceived as fiscal stimulus, they could unexpectedly buoy the USD . Synthesis for Our Biases A bullish DXY thesis is well-supported by: Economic and policy divergence (U.S. growth + Fed vs. peers). Hawkish Fed commentary and sticky inflation. Safe-haven capital inflows. Conversely, risks include: Deteriorating fiscal/trade dynamics. Potential Fed pivot once inflation shows clear decline. A consensus that could trigger a short squeeze or reversal if overstretched. Philosophical / Narrative View: The dollar remains the world’s dominant reserve currency. Periodic dips often act as strategic re-accumulation phases for institutional capital—especially during global macro uncertainty. A return toward 120+ reflects this persistent demand for USD liquidity and safety. Bias & Strategy Implication: 1. Primary Bias: Bullish, contingent on support at 93.3–99.9 holding. 2. Risk Scenario: Breakdown below 93.3 invalidates bullish thesis and targets 87.4–80 zones. Impact on Crypto & Gold and its Correlation and Scenarios: Historically, DXY has had an inverse correlation to both gold and crypto markets. When DXY strengthens, liquidity tends to rotate into dollar-denominated assets and away from risk-on trades like crypto and gold. When DXY weakens, it typically acts as a tailwind for both Bitcoin and gold. Correlation Coefficients: DXY vs. Gold: ≈ -0.85 (strong inverse correlation) DXY vs. TOTAL (crypto market cap): ≈ -0.72 (moderate to strong inverse correlation) Scenario 1: DXY Rallies toward 115–126 then, Expect gold to correct or stagnate, especially if yields rise. Crypto likely to pull back or remain suppressed unless specific bullish catalysts emerge (e.g., ETF flows or tech adoption). Scenario 2: DXY ranges between 93–105 then Gold may consolidate or form bullish continuation patterns. Then Crypto may see selective strength, particularly altcoins, if BTC.D declines. Scenario 3: DXY falls below 93 and toward 87 Then Gold likely to rally, possibly challenging all-time highs. Crypto could enter a major bull run, led by Bitcoin and followed by altcoins, fueled by increased liquidity and lower opportunity cost of holding non-USD assets. Understanding DXY’s direction provides valuable insight for portfolio positioning in macro-sensitive assets. Notes & Disclaimers: This analysis reflects a technical interpretation of the DXY index and is not financial advice. Market conditions may change based on unexpected macroeconomic events, Fed policy, or geopolitical developments.
TVC:DXYLong
by BitonGroup
DXY: Key Levels + Change of CharacterBias: Long Type: Reversal Trade Trend: Range Area of Value : Key Levels from downtrend before change of character. Momentum : 1D MACD Histogram about to cross the High Tide. Entry: 97.691 Exit: Stop Loss @ 96.890; Take Profit @ 100.894. Analysis Fact 1: DXY since 2022 has stayed above the 100.890 support level trending as a range. Fact 2: DXY has now crossed the key support level @ 100.890 which now acts as a resistance Fact 3: DXY crossed the trend line signaling a change of character + DXY MACD Histogram is about to cross to High Tide also signaling a change of character. Conclusion: Since the key support level @ 100.890 has now been broken, and there is a change of character about to happen. I believe that DXY will at the very least reach the resistance level @ 100.890 before bouncing off to continue the down trend or break to re-enter the range. Recommendation: Long Entry on the Area of Value (97.691), for stop loss add 1D ATR for distance (96.890), for take profit let it be the key resistance level (100.894). R:R of 4
TVC:DXYLong
by Rennalt_Capital
DXY SELL PROJECTIONDXY (Daily Outlook) – Sell Projection The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been showing signs of exhaustion after its recent upward move, and price action suggests that a potential correction could be on the horizon. I am closely watching the 98.000 supply zone, which stands out as a critical resistance level on the daily timeframe. Should price retrace into this zone and show signs of rejection — such as bearish candlestick patterns or a shift in market structure — it would present a strong case for sellers to regain control. A sell from this region could set the stage for renewed downside momentum in the coming sessions. For traders, this projection carries important cross-market implications: if the dollar weakens from the 98.000 level, we can expect XXX/USD pairs to gain more buying power, particularly around the midweek trading period. This would likely support bullish opportunities in major USD counterparts such as EURUSD, GBPUSD, and potentially gold (XAUUSD). In short, patience and confirmation are key — waiting for DXY to tap into the supply zone and react will provide higher probability setups across USD-related pairs.
TVC:DXYShort
by Kosywilson
$DXY breaking down. Next level to watch 95. Year-end lows @ 90.Even if the Fed cutting cycle has just started, we are seeing major weakness in the TVC:DXY index prior to the easing cycle. It is quiet peculiar the bottom to top of the Fed hiking cycle matches exactly to the DXY index Cycle bottom in 2021 to cycle top to September 2022. With a drop in the Fed fund rate from 5.34% to 4.34%, which is close to 18%, and the DXY has also lost almost 17%. If the expectation is that there will be another 0.25% rate cut over the next few months which will takt the Fed fund rates to 4.09%, which is 23% from the recent highs of 5.34%. And surprisingly if we plot 23% lower from the ATH on the TVC:DXY Index then the index should reach 90 by the end of the year. Verdict: With Fed rate lowering cycle ongoing the TVC:DXY index will lose more strength. 95 remains our short-term target and TVC:DXY to reach 90 by year end.
TVC:DXYShort
by RabishankarBiswal
dxy 4hTrading Perspectives for the Upcoming Week In this series of analyses, we have reviewed short-term trading perspectives and outlooks. As can be seen, in each analysis there is a significant support/resistance zone near the current asset price. The market’s reaction to or break of this level will determine the future price trend up to the next specified levels. Important Note: The purpose of these trading perspectives is to examine key price levels and the market’s potential reactions to them. The analyses provided are by no means trading signals!
TVC:DXY
by Deltafx_Broker
US Dollar Index (DXY) – Institutional Structural OutlookMacro Context The Dollar Index is currently holding within a weekly demand zone after a prolonged distributive phase. The market is evaluating whether this region will act as a structural accumulation base or if deeper liquidity levels will be tested. Confirmation from COT reports will be crucial to validate institutional positioning. Technical Structure Breakout & Acceptance: The last major breakout is still respected, with price now consolidating above demand. Demand Layers: Three clear demand zones are mapped: Current Demand – where the market is attempting to accumulate. Deep Discount Demand – a deeper structural level where liquidity could be absorbed if the first zone fails. Extreme Deep Discount Demand – ultimate defensive layer, aligned with long-term rebalancing. Accumulation: Price is building a smaller accumulation range, signaling potential preparation for an institutional move. Projected Scenarios Primary Bias (Accumulation/Long): If confirmed by COT, current accumulation may trigger a structural recovery of the Dollar, strengthening against weaker counterparts (AUD, NZD). Invalidation: A clean break below the current demand would open the path towards deeper demand zones, reframing the context as continuation of distribution. Confirmation & Monitoring COT Reports: Weekly positioning will confirm whether institutional players are indeed accumulating or still unwinding Dollar exposure. Volatility Index (VIX + EVZ): As timing filters for breakout confirmation. Macro Drivers: Next Fed communications and global liquidity flows remain critical catalysts. ⚖️ Institutional Note: The DXY is at a decision point – smaller accumulation is visible, but validation from institutional flows (COT) is essential before considering a structural recovery.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by philipemav
DXY (US Dollar Index) AnalysisPrice is currently trading near 97.60 – 97.90, which is a strong resistance zone. I’ll be waiting for bearish confirmation here before expecting downside momentum. 🔻 If sellers hold this level, we could see DXY drop further, aligning with bearish pressure on USD across correlated pairs (EURUSD bullish, GBPUSD bullish, Gold bullish). Key Levels: 🔴 Resistance: 97.60 / 97.90 🟢 Target Zone: 95.00 📌 Trading Plan: Wait for rejection at 97.60 – 97.90 before entering. Look for sell setups targeting 95.00. Correlation: Bearish DXY supports bullish momentum in major USD pairs. ⚠️ Risk management is key. Always wait for confirmation before taking positions.
TVC:DXYShort
by Fm254