CKP Fct 3/4Q2422 Sept 2024
Current Price 3.78
-Price Pattern shows symmetrical triangle -> wait till break trend line -> up or down
-Fct 3Q24 core profit ~ 800-900 THB (+QoQ -YoY)
Headwind
-Fct 3Q24 OP is not good due to XPCL site (contribute 32% of total CKP's capacity) shut down (2 times) -> over flow water from China
-La Nina will take less impact -> low supply -> NP drop
Tailwind
-FED cut int rate 50 bps (every 25bps affect 80-90M) -> 3/4QY24 NP improve ~ 180MTHB but cannot subside shutdown/lower output from XPCL
-THB appreciate -> Hedging -> Capital Gain
-LPBL construction progress ~ 30 and does not get affect from flooding
TP 4THB
MOS 20%@ 3.2
MOS 25%@ 3.0
MOS 30%@ 2.8
