Silver(XAG/USD)-BullishBreakout&Continuation Setup Towards$4,200Silver has completed a prolonged sideways consolidation and successfully broken above the resistance area, showing strong bullish momentum. Price is now retesting the breakout zone, which may act as support before the next upward move. If the bullish trend holds above $3,750–$3,800, the next target lies near $4,200.
Key levels:
Resistance: $4,000 – $4,202
Support: $3,600 – $3,750
Trend Bias: Bullish above support zone
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice
SILVER.F trade ideas
Spot Silver analysis
With RSI and CVD showing divergence to price, probability for a decent pullback increases. Buyers may start to become exhausted within the 41 - 40.5 range, despite strong fundamentals.
Price acceptance above VAH on the Yearly VP with a clean test of the same in confluence with the first deviation of the Yearly VWAP, indicating to a strong uptrend and suggesting a shift of value area to higher territory, with ~38.15 as the potential POC.
Price is currently sitting at the second deviation of the Yearly VWAP, suggesting an over-streched condition.
A pullback on the VAH of the Quarterly VP in confluence with the first deviation of the Quarterly VWAP and the broken resistance of 39.5, in my opinion, makes a solid long entry point as the uptrend persists, supported by strong fundamentals. If buyers, on the other hand, fail to defend 39.5, the next potential entry would be around the Quarterly VWAP and POC; however, we do have volumes accumulated just above 39.5 (~39.8), meaning that it is likely buyers will jump in to defend that zone.
In the short-term/intraday view, price continues to accept 41 as resistance despite positive news on Friday. The VAL of the Weekly VP showed consistent buyers with 40.5 and the area 40.7/75 as accepted support.
If sellers continue to defend 41 and show intention of shifting volumes lower, a break of the 40.7/75 area would indicate buyers exhaustion and a break of 40.5 would indicate sellers control. Weekly CVD shows sellers stepping in on Friday; however, one danger for a short position in the current price level is potential sellers absorption just a tick or two below 41, making it a key level for both buyers and sellers.
Overall, a pullback can be expected in Silver but it's not wise to jump in a short just yet.
XAGUSD 4HTrading Outlook for the Upcoming Week
In this series of analyses, we review trading perspectives and short-term outlooks.
As can be seen, in each analysis there is a key support/resistance zone near the current price of the asset. The market’s reaction to—or breakout from—this zone will determine the next price movement toward the specified levels.
Important Note: The purpose of these trading outlooks is to highlight key levels ahead of the price and the market’s potential reactions to them. The analyses provided are by no means trading signals!
Waiting to decide on silverSilver is currently in a very important supply range mpl and we should be very cautious in trading this commodity. And the most important ceilings and floors are the two red trend lines that have been drawn and I can expect an upward or downward trend with the failure of either of these.
SILVER XAGUSD SILVER BULLS WINS ON ECONOMIC DATA REPORT AND KEEPS GAINS
BREAKDOWN.
Indicator Current Forecast Previous
Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Non-Farm Employment Change 22,000 75,000 79,000
Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3% 4.2%
Fed Interpretation:
Average Hourly Earnings (0.3% m/m): In line with forecasts and previous data, showing steady wage growth. Stable wage growth suggests moderate inflation pressure from labor costs.
Non-Farm Employment Change (22,000): Significantly below forecast (75,000) and previous month (79,000), indicating a sharp slowdown in job creation. This suggests labor market cooling, potentially reflecting economic slowdown or more cautious hiring by employers.
The agency responsible for the US Non-Farm Employment Change data is the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which is part of the U.S. Department of Labor
The report, often released on the first Friday of each month, measures the change in the number of people employed in the US excluding farm workers, private household employees, and nonprofit organization employees.
It is based on the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey which covers about 141,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 486,000 worksites.
The data provides detailed insights into employment, hours worked, and earnings across various industries.
The report is closely watched as a key indicator of labor market health and overall economic performance.
Unemployment Rate (4.3%): Slightly increased from previous 4.2%, matching forecast. A rising unemployment rate confirms some softening in labor market conditions.
The agency responsible for measuring and reporting the Unemployment Rate in the United States is the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which is part of the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL).
Key Points:
The Unemployment Rate is part of the monthly Employment Situation Report produced by the BLS.
It measures the percentage of the labor force that is jobless but actively seeking work.
Data for the unemployment rate is collected through the Current Population Survey (CPS), which surveys approximately 60,000 households.
The BLS releases the unemployment rate and other labor statistics on the first Friday of every month.
The Department of Labor oversees the BLS, which is responsible for gathering and disseminating this critical labor market data that influences economic policy, including Federal Reserve decisions.
Summary:
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): the official source for the unemployment rate.
U.S. Department of Labor (DOL): the parent department supervising BLS operations.
The unemployment rate data helps assess economic health and guides policy decisions on employment and inflation.
Overall Fed Takeaway:
The marked slowdown in job growth combined with a slight rise in unemployment signals weakening labor market strength
Stable wage growth limits upside inflation risks from labor costs.
These signals suggest easing inflation pressures and a slowing economy, which might encourage the Fed to pause further rate hikes or consider cutting rates soon to support growth.
The Fed will likely weigh this data alongside other inflation and economic indicators to decide the next policy step but may lean cautiously towards easing given the weaker jobs data.
In summary, today’s data points to a moderating labor market with controlled wage inflation that supports a more dovish Fed approach in upcoming meetings.
DXY DEFENDED 97,428 ON DATA RPORT AND CLOSE THE 4HR ABOVE KEY SUPPORT STRUCTURE TO 97.722 AS AT REPORTING.
THE US 10Y BOND YIELD 4.056% SINKING TODAY BUT ON STRUCTURE THE US10Y IS ON DEMANDFLOOR AND BOND BUYING COULD OFFSET GOLS GAINS TODAY.
OPEN OF NEXT WEEK GOLD WILL CORRECT BECAUSE ITS OVER BOUGHT.
#GOLD #DXY #US10Y #DOLLAR
Silver’s Bullish Transition: $50 and BeyondSilver OANDA:XAGUSD FX:XAGUSD TVC:SILVER COMEX:SI1! has completed a multi-decade accumulation phase and is now entering a global bullish supercycle, capable of reshaping the balance of power in the precious metals market. Below is the current view across timeframes, structures, and macro drivers.
🔭 Global Perspective
Since the early 1980s, silver has been moving within a broad corrective structure, with two major corrections: from 1980 to 1995 and from 2011 to 2020.
Now there is strong evidence that a transition phase — wave (III) — has begun, which could potentially break historic highs and push prices toward $100+.
Upon reaching the $50 mark, the chart would complete a classic institutional "cup with handle" pattern, similar to gold, potentially triggering an exponential rally.
⏱ Mid-Term View
Since August 2022, silver has been developing an impulsive structure.
The deep correction we observed in April 2025 likely represents wave C of a flat correction, completing wave (4) of the current impulse.
Currently, silver is building wave (5). Within it, the first subwave (i) has either been completed or is still forming.
In the coming weeks or month, a local pullback is possible, followed by a continuation of the bullish rally, with a medium-term target in the $42–50 range.
🌐 Macro and Fundamental Drivers of Growth:
📈 Inflation and declining real interest rates — Silver, like gold, acts as an inflation hedge, especially during periods of monetary easing.
💵 Weakening U.S. Dollar — A falling DXY and potential QE strengthen demand for silver.
⚙️ Growing industrial demand — Silver is essential for solar panels, electronics, electric vehicles, and the medical sector.
🌍 Green energy transition — Silver is a critical material for photovoltaic technologies and the expansion of renewable energy.
📉 Structural supply deficit — Declining mining investment and ore grades are forming a long-term supply shortage.
🏦 Increasing institutional interest — ETFs, hedge funds, and banks are expanding their exposure to silver, boosting liquidity and long-term price support.
⚠️ Geopolitical risks — Metals act as a safe-haven amid rising global instability and de-dollarization trends.
📌
The supercycle is intact — we are likely within wave (III).
Short-term corrections are possible, but the overall structure remains bullish.
Medium-term target — $42–50.
The full cycle may take years, but the directional bias is clear.
Fundamental factors strongly support the technical outlook, pointing to significant long-term upside.
(Alchemy Markets) Silver Sees 45 Year Trend LineSilver has rallied nearly 45% from the April low reaching $41/oz. Silver prices can now see a very long-term trend line connecting the 1980 and 2011 price highs , a 45-year trend line in the making. (red line)
If Silver were to rally that high, a bearish reaction would likely be felt.
However, Silver has a wall of Elliott wave relationships and market geometry it needs to contend with first.
The rally from the September 2022 low is quite mature from an Elliott wave perspective. The rally is unfolding as an impulse wave pattern labeled 1-2-3-4-5 and it appears Silver is in the late stages of wave 5.
Wave 5 would need to subdivide as 5-waves and current prices appear to have completed wave ((iv)) at the July 31 low.
If this wave labeling is correct, then Silver is in wave ((v)) of 5 of (C)...an ending wave at 3 degrees of trend.
We can use common wave relationships and market geometry measurements to estimate where this current up wave may travel to.
There is a cluster of wave relationships between 41.59 - 44.92 plus a parallel price channel to help hold down Silver.
Lastly, there is some histogram divergence noted on the MACD indicator.
All of these symptoms mixed together suggest rallies in Silver may be limited with the bulk of the trend behind it.
IF this is correct, then another down-up sequence may finish silver off and lead to a decline back to the wave 4 extreme, near $29.
Though not expected, if silver does plow above $44.92, then the 1980 trend line will likely offer a bearish reaction.
SILVER: Will Go Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 40.955 Therefore, a strong bullish reaction here could determine the next move up.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 41.109.Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Silver | H1 Head and Shoulders | GTradingMethodHello Traders.
Welcome to today's trade idea by GTradingMethod.
🧐 Market Overview:
I’m watching silver closely for a potential short setup. Price action suggests a possible head and shoulders formation, but I’m still waiting for confirmation from key variables before committing. For example:
- I’d like to see the current 1H candle close within my range
- Lower volume on the right shoulder compared to the left.
📊 Trade Plan:
Risk/reward = 3.0
Entry price = 40.88
Stop loss price = 41.14
Take profit level 1 (50%) = 40.17
Take profit level 2 (50%) = 39.77
💡 GTradingMethod Tip:
Patience is a trading edge. Waiting for confirmation before entering means fewer trades, but higher-quality ones.
🙏 Thanks for checking out my post!
Make sure to follow me to catch the next idea and please share your thoughts – I would like to hear them.
📌 Please note:
This is not financial advice. This content is to track my trading journey and for educational purposes only.
Silver Unfolds A New Impulse Within 5th WaveSilver is moving higher as expected, pushing even beyond 39, but since the market also broke to new highs, it’s clear that higher degree wave four is finished as a flat correction back at 36.20, so be aware of even further continuation higher into wave five while makret trades above 39. We need five subwaves now in this blue wave 5 cycle, so more gains can follow after some intraday setbacks. But keep in mind that we are in the final leg of the higher-degree fifth wave impulse that could come to an end around 42/43 this year.
XAGUSD H1 | Bearish reversal off pullback resistanceSilver (XAG/USD) is reacting off the sell entry, which is a pullback resistance that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to the take profit.
Sell entry is at 40.96, which is a pullback resistance that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 41.37, which is a swing high resistance that lines up with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit is at 40.22, which is a pullback support.
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Divergence confirmation and a deeper correction?Silver, like gold, is also in an uptrend, but it seems to be moving more logically and with less volatility. In a trend, the less hype there is, the more reliable it becomes.
Currently, we’re seeing significant divergence and weakness in silver’s trend. We’ll have to wait and see whether this divergence gets confirmed or if the trend wants to continue on its own.
Silver (XAGUSD)– 15m | Descending Trendline & Demand BaseFOREXCOM:XAGUSD
Structure | Trend | Key Reaction Zones
Silver is trading under a descending trendline, with price rejecting from the 41.44 high. Multiple demand bases at 40.40–40.52 continue to act as support. Sellers are showing control after liquidity grabs at highs.
Market Overview
Price has been consolidating within a falling channel, with sellers pressing at each rally. Demand zones are still respected, but a decisive break below 40.40 could open further downside. Breakout above the descending trendline would flip sentiment bullish again.
Key Scenarios
✅ Bullish Case 🚀 → Bounce from 40.40–40.52 demand base could push Silver toward 🎯 40.87 and 🎯 41.06.
❌ Bearish Case 📉 → Break below 40.40 exposes 🎯 40.12 as the downside target.
Current Levels to Watch
Resistance 🔴: 40.87 / 41.06 / 41.23
Support 🟢: 40.52 / 40.40 / 40.12
⚠️ Disclaimer: For educational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SILVER: Next Move Is Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 40.794 Therefore, a strong bearish reaction here could determine the next move down.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 40.602.Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
SILVER’S SUPERCYCLE: $40 Retest Could Ignite a Moonshot to $66Silver OANDA:XAGUSD ) has finally broken out of a multi-year resistance zone, soaring past $40 for the first time since 2011. With technical momentum building and macro tailwinds in place, this could be the beginning of a supercycle rally in precious metals.
Trade Plan:
🔹 Entry Zone: Watching for a pullback to $40.00 – a former resistance turned key support
🔹 Stop Loss: $38.00 (below support, invalidates breakout if breached)
🔹 Targets:
• TP1: $44.00 – $48.00
• TP2: $58.00 – $66.00
Why This Setup?
✅ Breakout from multi-decade cup & handle formation
✅ Bullish momentum driven by inflation hedging, weak USD, and rising industrial demand
✅ Historical precedents suggest that confirmed breakouts in silver often move fast and far
Watchlist:
🕵️ Keep an eye on volume, RSI divergence, and how price reacts near $40. A healthy pullback and strong bounce would validate the setup.
#Silver #XAGUSD #SilverStackers #Commodities #PreciousMetals #GoldVsSilver
#BreakoutTrade #TechnicalAnalysis #MetalsTrading #SpotSilver #TradingSetup
#MacroTrading #SafeHavenAssets #InflationHedge #SilverSqueeze #Supercycle
Silver Price Retreats from a 14-Year HighSilver Price Retreats from a 14-Year High
As the XAG/USD chart shows, yesterday silver climbed above $41.40 per ounce. The last time silver traded at this level was in September 2011. The rise in XAG/USD was supported by gold surging to a record high, which we reported yesterday.
Furthermore, Goldman Sachs analysts have issued a gold price forecast for mid-2026, according to which XAU/USD could rise to:
→ $4,000 under the base case;
→ $5,000 if 1% of the private US Treasury market flows into gold. This scenario would imply a loss of Federal Reserve independence, higher inflation, and the US dollar weakening as a so-called reserve currency.
Technical Analysis of XAG/USD
Analysing XAG/USD fluctuations, we can identify two ascending channels:
→ Medium-term (shown in blue): in play since early summer;
→ Short-term (shown in purple): reflecting increased demand over the past two weeks.
Within this context, it is evident that silver has encountered a resistance cluster formed by the upper boundaries of these channels. For short- and medium-term traders, this suggests that XAG/USD may be considered overvalued → potentially triggering a wave of profit-taking on long positions.
Signs of demand exhaustion include:
→ A bearish divergence on the RSI indicator;
→ The aggressive decline from the upper channel boundary (highlighted by the orange arrow).
Bulls may find support at the median line and lower boundary of the purple channel.
Given the above, we might assume that the purple channel could still sustain silver’s upward momentum by inertia. At the same time, the formation of a bearish reversal pattern (e.g. a double top) near the upper blue boundary could occur, followed by a correction towards the psychological $40 level (where a buyer imbalance was previously observed).
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Silver Daily Analysis- Silver continues to ride its bullish momentum within an ascending channel formation.
- It is supported by dovish expectations from the Fed.
- The market has already started pricing in the September rate cuts, which weakens the dollar and provides a tailwind for precious metals.
- The Fib Extension 1.272 (41.32) is acting as a crucial immediate hurdle for bulls.
- Prices have also entered the overbought zone
- testing upper Bollinger band &
- above 70 level of RSI
- Both signaling minor corrections
- However, a clean break and sustained close above Fib Extension 1.272 level will likely fuel further upside momentum.
- On the upside, the next milestone sits near $44.0, aligning with historical resistance and the extended Fib projections.
Risk Factors:
* Failure to sustain above the 1.272 extension (41.32) could trigger profit-taking.
* A retest of the lower trend line of the channel near 39.5 or the middle Bollinger band near 38.5 could be witnessed
Short-term pullbacks are possible, but the broader bias remains bullish as long as the Fed maintains its rate-cut trajectory.
SILVER (XAG/USD) Analysis: Bullish Continuation from Retracement📜 Summary
Despite some recent volatile price action, Silver is positioning for a potential bullish continuation. The current setup suggests that the price is undergoing a healthy retracement within a larger uptrend, presenting an attractive entry point for a long position, aiming for new highs.
📊 4-Hour Chart (H4) Analysis
The 4-hour chart provides a clear view of the recent price action and the proposed bullish setup.
📈 The Bullish Impulse: The chart clearly shows a strong upward impulse wave that began at the start of September, pushing the price from below $39.00 to a high near $41.50. This indicates strong buying interest in the market.
Fibonacci Retracement: A Fibonacci tool is expertly drawn on this most recent upward leg, identifying key support zones. The price has retraced into the 61.8% (40.7913) and 78.6% (40.6128) retracement levels. These are classic areas where smart money looks for entries to join the existing trend.
Potential Reversal Point: The price action around these Fibonacci levels suggests that this could be a temporary pullback, forming a solid base for the next leg higher. We are anticipating a bounce from this zone.
💡 Trading Scenario: Long Position
The chart illustrates a potential long (buy) trade based on the expectation of a bounce and continuation of the bullish trend.
🔮 Scenario: Bullish - The retracement to key Fibonacci levels is seen as an opportunity for the uptrend to resume.
▶️ Entry: Around $40.78. This entry point is strategically placed within the strong Fibonacci retracement zone, aiming to capture the bounce.
🛡️ Stop-Loss: Placed at $40.50. This stop-loss is positioned below the 78.6% Fibonacci level and a recent swing low, providing protection if the price dips further than expected.
💰 Take Profit: The target is set significantly higher at $41.70. This target aims for a break above the previous high ($41.50) and seeks to capture a substantial continuation of the bullish move. This level aligns with a -27.20% Fibonacci extension, which is a common target for the next impulse wave.
✅ Key Considerations for this Bullish Setup
Trend Following: This setup is based on the principle of trend following, looking for pullbacks in an established uptrend.
Fibonacci Confluence: The entry point is supported by the confluence of major Fibonacci retracement levels.
Risk/Reward: The setup aims for a favorable risk/reward ratio, targeting a move significantly higher than the stop-loss distance.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves risks. Always conduct your own research and manage your risk effectively before placing a trade.
Silver on the path of growth and developmentAs I mentioned in the previous article, silver is moving towards the desired target, which is around $40 per ounce of silver. As you can see, this three-month chart and the uptrend drawn and reproduced shows the desired price target near the top of the channel.
If there is a change and an update is needed, I will definitely check and publish it again.
Good luck.
MJ .REZAEI
CHEERS TO SILVERHi,
Welcome to my 3rd Publication... first of all CHEERS to all the silver lovers.
Some key take away points here are - violent & aggressive silver rally's from a 1-3 month time frame have been observed ranging from 430% and the 2011 run being 200% the 2011 being longer duration than 1979 being slightly longer. these are represented in the yellow observational box's. I have noticed that the rally in 1979 the RSI coincides with current RSI levels today on the weekly chart. - history rhymes but may not be similar this time.
This is a multi decade CUP & Handle formation and my technical breakdown is rough and im sure i have made errors in my assessment for potential price targets. It gets me very excited however for 2026 - 2027 because i believe in full conviction silver will see 3 figures some time in this time frame. My personal Target is $135 per OZ based off the last big silver run however with M.2 Money supply being that much larger a more aggressive run might happen.
When $50 per ounce is broken the horse will have bolted, buying right now under $50 is still early days with the miners but remains resistance until then.
Cheers. R