AAPL....What's next....The Good
Recovery off lows: That sharp reversal from ~$165 back above $230 shows strong buyer support. The +36% bounce (highlighted on chart) is impressive.
Trend alignment: Shorter EMAs are stacked above longer ones again, suggesting bullish momentum is back.
Volume: Decent participation on the rebound, not a weak drift higher.
The Bad
Heavy resistance overhead: $235–$240 is a supply zone. Price has stalled there multiple times, and you can see past rejection points at 235, 260. This area must be cleared for continuation.
Lower high risk: Unless AAPL breaks above $260, it could be setting up a “lower high” compared to past peaks (Feb & July 2024).
Valuation risk: Apple isn’t cheap right now. Macro risk (Fed cuts, consumer spending slowdown, China supply chain issues) could make it more vulnerable than Nvidia/semis.
The Ugly
Previous deep drawdowns: AAPL saw nearly a -36% correction not long ago. That’s a reminder this is not a low-risk hold anymore. One earnings miss or weak iPhone cycle could re-trigger that.
Crowded trade: Everyone owns Apple. Hedge funds, ETFs, retail. If big money rotates out, selling pressure is brutal.
Cost vs. Benefit
Benefit: If Apple breaks $240 convincingly, next stop is likely $260 (prior high). That’s ~12% upside.
Cost: If it fails here and rolls over, you could be looking at a drop back to $215 (near 50-day/200-day confluence) or even $200 (~15% downside).
