Tesla (TSLA) - Weekly Battle Before The BreakoutTicker : NASDAQ:TSLA
Timeframe : Weekly
Bias : Neutral (Awaiting breakout confirmation)
Range : $410 - $470
🧠 MARKET CONTEXT
Tesla is stuck in a wide weekly range as macro uncertainty and earnings expectations collide.
Buyers defend the $410 zone while Sellers keep rejecting $470 - a classic coiling phase before expansion.
🔎 TECHNICAL OVERVIEW
* Structure: Choppy / Distribution phase ( failed breakouts, heavy wicks, indecision )
* Resistance Zone: $465-$475 ( needs clean close above for breakout confirmation )
* Support Zone: $410-$425 ( critical area maintaining bullish structure )
* Major Support Below: $320-$360 ( long term value area where buyers historically stepped in )
📈 SCENARIOS
🟢 Bullish Case:
* Weekly close above $470 with strong volume = breakout signal.
* Targets : $500+ zone, potential retest of 2024 highs.
🔴 Bearish Case:
* Weekly close below $410 = structure break.
* Targets : $360 - $320 zone.
⚪ Neutral / Range Play:
* Between $410 - $470, range strategies work best (fade extremes, tight risk).
🌍 MACRO CONTEXT
* The FED's higher-for-longer stance keeps pressure on growth stocks.
* Q3 deliveries were strong, supporting long term sentiment.
* Competition & margin compression (China & Europe) remain risk factors.
* Tech sector volatility + geopolitical headlines amplify TSLA's swings.
📊 WEEKLY OUTLOOK SUMMARY
* Short Term (2-4 weeks) : range bound between $410-$470 - watch for volume spikes / breakout confirmation.
* Medium Term (1-3 months) : direction depends on Fed & earnings - macro + delivery data key catalysts.
* Long Term (Q1 2026+) : bullish bias intact if fundamentals hold - expect volatility during macro tightening.
💬 FINAL TAKE
Tesla is coiling between $410 and $470. Whichever side breaks first will likely define Q4's direction. Watch weekly closes and volume confirmation - "The Big Move Is Loading"
Trade ideas
TSLA: ShortNASDAQ:TSLA ⚡ Coiling up in a symmetrical wedge right under equilibrium — a textbook indecision zone before expansion.
Still trading below premium structure → bias remains bearish unless we see a clean breakout and hold above 434.5.
Volume contracting, RSI midline hovering → pressure building for next leg.
🎯 Breakdown targets: 427 → 422 → 416
🚀 Bull case invalidation: Close above 434.5, targeting 444–450
🧠 VolanX DSS Bias: Bearish continuation, awaiting volatility trigger
#TSLA #VolanX #SmartMoney #LiquidityZones #PriceAction #AITrading #WaverVanir
Not Investment Advice
Why Most Prop Traders Fail (Even the Skilled Ones)When speaking with Prop Traders, we have found the issue was not about
bad setups; it’s emotions under pressure that is the problem
Fear after a loss. Greed after a win.
That’s when discipline slips and accounts die.
Here’s what helps:
Before each session, ask ?
“Would I take this trade if I weren’t trying to prove something?”
This one question has saved more accounts than any indicator
I’ve been helping traders stay calm when it matters most.
If you’ve ever blown up knowing exactly what you should’ve done, DM me and I’ll show you what’s been working.
TSLA Short1. May/June Inside Bar: Broke to the upside on September with no re-test of break.
a. Higher timeframes take longer for this to re-test.
b. I have found that 18 days is an average re-test, but this is not 100%.
2. Daily chart shows pullback, but its extremely important to understand that the weekly and monthly show bullish momentum.
3. I have started a TSLQ short position adding slowly, with TSLA shares targeting ATH's.
4. The target is for TSLA to move back into the 5% buffer, where I will start looking for a long position. The inside bar is usually re-tested. If bullish momentum is still there, which the weekly and monthly still show, then the 5% buffer and 25% quadrant are entry zones. However, if something changes, then 50% quadrant should be the target.
Happy trading!
TSLA BULLISH OCT 9 2025There is a lot of bullish momentum in Tesla at current price. Price action is always superior .
If you dont understand a trade then dont enter in it trusting me or any stranger as this is your hard earned money. Missing a trade is not the end of the world.
Its a trade so,
STOP LOSS means Stop my loss
Trade:
Entry- curren price
SL-$416 close
Target-$460 min
TSLA maybe retest support near 360$ but target is 700$Price is near channel resistance and red trendline sell pressure zone so we can expect short-term fall here like the red arrow but soon after that short-term fall we can expect heavy gain here like the green arrow on chart and targets like 600$ and more also if the red trendline break valid to the upside without that correction target can hit.
DISCLAIMER: ((trade based on your own decision))
<<press like👍 if you enjoy💚
TSLA: TradeBear flag forming on 15-min — structure looks weak.
Liquidity sweep around 441 done, momentum fading.
If we lose 434, expect acceleration into deeper liquidity zones (possible 418 area).
RSI flattening, volume divergence visible — watch for breakdown confirmation.
No confirmation = short trap possible, but bias remains bearish until >441 reclaims.
#TSLA #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #BearFlag #SmartMoneyConcepts #Stocks
Not Investment Advice
Fibonacci: Theory and Practice (Part 1) RetracementsThe Fibonacci proportions are a widely used technical tool in financial markets. They are based on the Fibonacci sequence, a numerical series introduced to the West by the Italian mathematician Leonardo de Pisa (13th century) after his travels in the Mediterranean (especially in Béjaïa, Algeria): 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144..., where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones.
Although Ralph Nelson Elliott incorporated concepts related to Fibonacci ratios in his wave theory (published in 1938), it was Charles Collins who first explicitly used price retracements and extensions in the 1940s.
I will divide the content into three parts to enhance understanding of this approach: Fibonacci Retracements, Fibonacci Extensions, and Harmonic Alignments.
Fibonacci Ratios
In trading, the sequence itself is not used directly but rather its ratios, which approximate natural proportions observed in nature, art, and price patterns.
The ratio of any number to the next higher number approaches 0.618 after the first four numbers. For example, 1/1 is 1.00, 1/2 is 0.50, 2/3 is 0.67, 3/5 is 0.60, 5/8 is 0.625, 8/13 is 0.615, 13/21 is 0.619, etc. (pay attention to the value 0.50).
The ratio of any number to the preceding lower number is approximately 1.618, or the inverse of 0.618. For example, 13/8 is 1.625, 21/13 is 1.615, 34/21 is 1.619. The higher the numbers, the closer they get to 0.618 and 1.618.
The ratios of alternate numbers approximate 2.618 or its inverse, 0.382. For example, 13/34 is 0.382, 34/13 is 2.615.
0.786 is the square root of 0.618.
Personal Perspective on Fibonacci Proportions
None of the ratios we will explore below possess magical properties. The truly decisive factor is price action, which acts as a mirror of the collective psychology of investors. Fibonacci proportions are excellent for highlighting proportionality and harmony, aspects that directly influence participants' decisions. This is where the importance of this approach lies.
Fibonacci Retracement Adjustments
In Figure 1, you can see how to correctly draw Fibonacci retracements in an uptrend: from bottom to top, from the low of the impulse (1) (including the lower wicks or shadows) to the upper high (2) (considering its wicks or shadows). The clearer and more defined these impulses are, the greater their influence on market participants' psychology. Clarity ensures better results when studying tools, indicators, or price action.
I discard the 0.236 level in my trading, but you can include it and experiment.
Timeframe is also important to consider: applying Fibonacci on 5-minute charts, for example, would be like trying to control the ocean with a measuring tape. As I demonstrated in the article “Timeframe is Everything” , lower timeframes degrade the success rate due to the greater influence of news and rumors, high-frequency trading, lower capitalization, and interests, etc.
If the drawing is incorrect, the values will not match those in the image, and the diagonal line will point downward.
Figure 1
In Figure 2, I show the correct drawing of Fibonacci retracements in a downtrend, from top to bottom, from the high of the impulse (1) (including the lower wicks or shadows) to the low (2) (considering its wicks or shadows). If the drawing is incorrect, the values will not match, and the diagonal line will point upward.
Figure 2:
Psychology of the Ratios
Ratio 0.382
This ratio is extremely useful for avoiding premature entries in favor of the trend. In my experience, in most cases, we should wait for the price to touch the 0.382 level unless a consistent price formation justifies a trend continuation.
This level indicates a typical retracement zone, making it ideal for detecting "pauses" in strong trends. It is also necessary that entries at this and other ratios we will study are validated by price action and context.
In Figure 3, you can observe how the price offers an excellent reversal opportunity at the 0.382 Fibonacci level. A previously respected 50 EMA and a strong point like the 50% of the body of a weekly engulfing candle increase the robustness of the zone. The confirmation of price action manifests in increased volumes that may signal a likely reversal and a bullish engulfing candle.
Figure 3
I won’t provide examples in downtrends for this level, as the buying pressure inherent in market nature makes short entries based on the 0.382 level very unstable. Thus, this ratio is primarily evident in uptrends.
Ratio 0.50
It is generally believed that this ratio does not belong to the Fibonacci sequence, but 0.50 is a harmonic starting point in the progression.
It marks a balance between supply and demand, thus serving as a psychological magnet that tends to attract the price while delineating a battle zone between buyers and sellers.
In Figure 4, you can see the correct use of the level: The 0.50 ratio is perfectly aligned with the presence of a 50 SMA and price action elements like a ceiling test , offering extremely robust resistance. An island gap pattern is an excellent reversal signal to confirm a short entry.
Figure 4
In Figure 5, we observe the alignment of the 0.50 level with the presence of a large gap acting as robust support. Additionally, the level coincides with the 50% of the body of a bullish engulfing candle on a weekly chart, adding significant confidence. The price action would confirm an entry with a large bullish engulfing candle.
Figure 5
Ratio 0.618 (Golden Ratio)
The 0.618 ratio is a universal "equilibrium point" in crowd psychology; the place where many investors expect a bounce, as it represents a deep but not exhaustive correction.
Studies and tests (such as those by Robert Prechter in Elliott Wave Principle ) show that the 61.8% level appears in up to 70% of significant corrections in indices like the S&P 500 or Dow Jones, while behavioral economists argue that its "success" is more due to confirmation bias than strict causality.
In Figure 6, we observe how the golden ratio (0.618) aligns with a high order volume zone (volume profile). The noticeable weakness in price action, graphically represented in oscillators like the MACD (bearish divergence), combined with a volume spike, could provide clues about a likely rejection in the zone.
Figure 6
In Figure 7, we observe a bullish example where the 0.618 level aligns with a strong support generated by accumulation. Note how this zone shows a high order volume (volume profile). This support was also backed by a 20 EMA on a weekly chart. The price action would confirm the entry after several rejection candles.
Figure 7
Ratio 0.786
This is my favorite Fibonacci retracement ratio, and I use it exclusively to seek reversals in uptrends. It indicates trend weakness, but I like to consider it a high-probability reaction zone, as selling pressure in such a deep correction tends to be weak, while large participants or institutions may see a good opportunity to buy low.
I apply this ratio exclusively to double bottoms, as seen in Figures 8 and 9.
Figure 8
Figure 9
In Figure 8, the 0.786 level aligns with the 50% of a monthly engulfing candle and a large gap visible on the daily chart. Additionally, volume and a large engulfing candle pattern would have confirmed the entry well.
Figure 9 shows an alignment between the 0.786 level and a strong support on the daily chart. In the same zone, a 20 EMA on a weekly chart coincides. The price action confirmation manifests in compression and an explosion of bullish volatility.
Fun Facts
1-Leonardo de Pisa (or Leonardo Pisano) was born around 1170 in Pisa, Italy, and was the son of Guglielmo Bonacci, a commercial official working in North Africa.
The nickname Fibonacci comes from "filius Bonacci," which in Latin literally means "son of Bonacci." He signed his works as "Leonardo, son of Bonacci, Pisan," but the term "Fibonacci" was shortened and popularized centuries later.
2-The Fibonacci numerical series actually dates back to ancient Indian texts (such as those by Pingala in the 2nd century BC, used for poetic meter).
3-Leonardo de Pisa popularized the numerical series in Western Europe through his book, Liber Abaci (1202), where he used it to solve practical problems, such as rabbit population growth (the famous example: a pair of rabbits produces a sequence of births generating the numbers 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8...).
Conclusions
Fibonacci proportions are a valuable complement, but not the holy grail. In my strategies, I find them extremely useful and feel comfortable incorporating them in specific contexts, though not all systems require them. For example, I like having a Fibonacci at hand in patterns like double bottoms to identify key supports or when a price overextends or retraces strongly, delineating potential reversal zones.
I recommend that investors avoid chasing mystical numerical alignments and maintain a logical approach to each tool, method, or pattern studied.
Final Note
If you want to take a look at my analysis record, you can find my profile in Spanish, where I transparently share well-defined market entries. Send your good vibes if you enjoyed this article, and may God bless you all.
Tesla Earnings Tonight – Growth Era Under Pressure?TSLA reports Q3 2025 earnings after the bell.
Estimates: $0.55 EPS (+37.5% QoQ) and $26.46 B revenue (+18%).
Strong on paper — but the real story will come from forward guidance.
What’s beneath the surface:
Inventory is rising as production outpaces sales since Q4 2024.
Annual revenue growth turned negative in Q2 2025.
EBT has declined roughly 11% per quarter since Q3 2024.
China’s rare-earth export limits tighten Tesla’s margins and favour BYD & NIO.
Technical Outlook:
TSLA remains range-bound between $411.6 – $448.2 (heavy volume zone).
If price moves higher, watch $470.5 (previous high) and $488.5 (ATH).
If it dips, $367.9 (Value Area High) is the support to watch.
Volatility is tightening — tonight’s tone on guidance could decide whether Tesla stays range-bound or starts a new phase.
TSLA: Fundamentals Are Collapsing While Valuation Stays in OrbitTesla is trading near multi-month highs… but the fundamentals tell a very different story.
EPS has dropped by 50%, revenue growth has almost stalled, and yet the stock still carries a Forward P/E of 164.
This combination — slowing growth and extreme valuation — looks like the definition of an institutional bubble setup.
🧮 Fundamental Context
Over the past few years, Tesla’s growth has slowed dramatically:
Revenue rose from 31B → 53B → 81B → 96B → 97B — barely any increase.
EPS climbed from 0.2 → 1.6 → 3.6 → 4.3 — and then fell by half.
Quarter-over-quarter metrics remain negative, with no visible recovery trend.
Meanwhile, the Forward P/E of 164 implies double-digit expansion ahead — which clearly isn’t happening.
The fundamentals simply do not justify this kind of valuation.
Right now, Tesla’s numbers resemble the early phase of a valuation compression cycle — where prices eventually catch up with reality.
📉 Technical Structure
Technically, Tesla has been moving in a broad sideways range, forming what looks like a long-term Wave 4 structure.
We’re currently inside the “B” leg, which could already be complete or near completion.
Once that wave ends, the next expected move is a Wave C decline.
Key levels to watch:
📍 Upper resistance zone: $400 – $550
📍 Primary cluster: around $250
📍 Support zone: $150 – $200
The chart shows clear volume concentration around $250 — once that level breaks, the next liquidity pocket sits between $150 and $200.
That’s where a potential bottoming cluster could form before the final upward leg.
⚠️ Market Outlook
While other FANG names maintain solid balance sheets and stable earnings, Tesla’s fundamentals are deteriorating sharply.
Yes, the stock may still see short-term pumps driven by sentiment or Musk’s fan base — but markets always return to fundamentals.
And those fundamentals are pointing downward.
📊 Summary
EPS and revenue both trending lower 📉
Forward P/E at 164 — completely disconnected from growth metrics
Technical range suggests potential decline toward $200–$150
Current price action likely part of a larger corrective structure
Long-term investors should exercise extreme caution ⚠️
Tesla isn’t a short-term “growth story” anymore — it’s a valuation risk story.
Until earnings stabilize and margins recover, this stock looks massively overpriced.
3 Common Trading Mistakes Traders Should AvoidTraders of all levels, from beginners to experienced professionals, can fall prey to psychological mistakes that can lead to poor trading decisions and ultimately, losses. Understanding and avoiding these common mistakes is crucial for developing a sound trading strategy and achieving consistent success in the markets.
Here are three of the most prevalent trading mistakes traders should strive to avoid:
FOMO (Fear of Missing Out): FOMO is a pervasive emotion that can cloud traders' judgment and lead them to make impulsive decisions based on the fear of missing out on potential profits. This often involves chasing trends or entering trades without proper analysis, increasing the risk of losses.
To combat FOMO, traders should adhere to their trading plan, prioritize discipline, and focus on identifying high-probability trading opportunities rather than reacting to market movements out of fear.
Revenge Trading: Revenge trading is the emotional urge to recoup losses from previous trades by making hasty and ill-advised decisions. This often stems from a desire to prove one's rightness or regain a sense of control over the market.
To avoid revenge trading, traders should cultivate emotional detachment, accept losses as a natural part of trading, and avoid the temptation to let emotions dictate their trading decisions.
Gambler's Fallacy: The gambler's fallacy is the mistaken belief that past events influence the outcome of future events, leading to an assumption that trends will continue indefinitely or that random events can be predicted.
To overcome the gambler's fallacy, traders should recognize that each trade is an independent event with its own unique probabilities, and past performance is not a guarantee of future results. They should rely on sound trading analysis and risk management techniques rather than relying on hunches or superstitions.
By avoiding these common psychological mistakes, traders can develop a more disciplined and rational approach to trading, increasing their chances of achieving long-term success in the markets.
TSLA Breakout Watch – Key Resistance at $450
Tesla (TSLA) is forming a bullish ascending triangle pattern, testing the $447–$450 resistance zone.
A breakout above this level could trigger upside momentum toward $453 and $459 (next resistance levels).
If rejected, the stock may retest $442 or $436 support before the next move.
📊 Bias: Bullish above $447 — Breakout confirmation needed.
🎯 Targets: 453 / 459
🛑 Support: 442 / 436
$TSLA | Medium-Term Elliott Wave Outlook (2025–2026)🔮 NASDAQ:TSLA | Medium-Term Elliott Wave Outlook (2025–2026)
Price action shows a mature 5-wave structure approaching completion.
The next probable phase is a corrective ABC retracement before a new expansion leg begins.
🧭 Base Case (Most Probable ~60%)
End of current impulse around $527–$540
Correction to $380–$400 region (Wave A–B–C)
Mid-to-long-term expansion toward $615 → $705 → $869+ by late 2026
⚙️ Technical & Macro Confluence
RSI + volume divergence confirming wave exhaustion
Macro liquidity compression aligns with corrective phase
Institutional demand re-entry near $395–$400 zone
Fibonacci & structure symmetry consistent with this projection
📊 Bias: Short-term bearish → Medium-term accumulation → Long-term bullish.
📅 Cycle Horizon: 2025–2026
“Correction isn’t collapse — it’s the reload before expansion.”
#TSLA #ElliottWave #Macro #VolanXDSS #WaverVanir
TSLA – Calm Before the Storm or Just Another Dip Buy?Tesla (TSLA) is trading around $315, bouncing off recent lows, but this isn’t just a clean technical setup. With Elon Musk’s political drama escalating (hello, “America Party”) and ongoing tension with Trump, TSLA is becoming a battleground stock with serious volatility.
As swing traders, that’s exactly where we thrive.
📍 Entry Plan
✅ Entry #1 – $315
✅ Entry #2 – $300
• Previous breakout zone — ideal for dip buyers
✅ Entry #3 – $265
• Strong macro support; only activated if market correction deepens.
🎯 Profit Targets
• TP1: $335
• TP2: $355
• TP3: 400+ – if sentiment + volume align with narrative momentum (think: Robotaxi or AI catalyst)
If $265 gets hit, I’m not panicking, I’m preparing for high-reward setups.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I’m just sharing my plan and technical zones. Always do your own research and manage your risk.
📌 Follow for more ideas based on price, narrative, and timing. Trade smart — not loud. 🧭📈
Tesla reports Wednesday; analysts expect EPS of $0.55Tesla reports third-quarter earnings Wednesday after the close, with analysts expecting EPS of $0.55, down from $0.72 a year earlier, on revenue of $26.2B — up 4%. There’s room for an upside surprise after record Q3 deliveries of 497,099 vehicles, boosted by the now-expired $7,500 U.S. EV tax credit, which also trimmed inventories. Analysts will focus on Elon Musk’s plans for robotaxi scaling, autonomy progress, and upcoming models through 2026, along with updates on new “Standard” Model 3 and Y trims. Wall Street projects about 450,000 deliveries in Q4.
Tesla is holding firm near $418, with its RSI turning higher to signal improving momentum. A positive EMA crossover — along with clear angle and separation between the averages — would confirm a strengthening bullish trend.