Fake breakout SOLSOL is breaking out of its channel. With the upcoming news on potential rate cuts, anything could happen. From a technical perspective, we’re approaching the 0.78 Fib level sitting right at a strong weekly resistance around $251.88. A fakeout could occur, and prices might possibly drop to the $170–$150 area.
Trade ideas
Solana Projection + ThesisChart is time synced to projection.
Q4 2025-Q1 2026
Market-wide cool off combined with extended government shutdown cause panic and doubt within all assets. BTC is relatively strong, but still dips near 100k. Narrative trap of "bear market" "cycle is over" etc. Massive emotion-rooted doubt within crypto despite strength.
Q2 2026+
Assets front-run fed chair change into the spring, and upon a new trump appointed chair in May 2026, all assets begin to rally hard into the fall. BTC and crypto lead this liquidity cycle behind a risk-on federal policy and macro playing field. Fed pivot, massive stablecoin growth (dominated by Solana).
4 years cycles are over. This is the explosive step forwards into mass adoption for BTC and crypto as a whole. Solana will dominate alts with DATs, ETFs with staking, the best stablecoin APY on the planet, and transactions at the speed of light.
Golden Zones and Moving AveragesSOL is at the O.5 Fibonacci golden zone area and resting at the 50 EMA. If it breaks below 173.88 area, price may possibly head to 155$ price range. We have some red candles, however bulls still have the upper hand; bulls need bullish candles at the 190$ area, for the pullback to be hopefully over.
SOLUSD H4 | Price Faces Bearish Drop-OffSOL/USD has rejected off the sell entry which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to the take profit.
Sell entry is at 191.97, which is a pullback resistance that lines up with he 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 206.14, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with he 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 175.03, which is a multi swing low support.
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Solana: Key Levels to WatchSolana has been in a downward trend since October 6th, but we are seeing some hints at a reversal. This is not yet confirmed, and weekend price action tends to be a poor indicator of the week ahead. This chart tries to plot the key levels that SOL/USD needs to break through in order to show strong bullish momentum going into the end of October.
The levels to watch are $192, as the first resistance. And if Solana can break above that, it needs to smash through the $200 level. If that were to play out, keep in mind that $205 has frequently been a key support/resistance level as well. A break above $200 may stall at the $205 level for a while, and bulls will need to see it stay above $200.
The USDT.D chart is an important indicator of the allocation of capital into, or out of crypto. Traders should watch for a drop in USDT dominance to confirm that there is ample liquidity to maintain a Solana rally. The key levels to watch for is a USDT.D break below 4.88% (1), 4.72% (2), and 4.53% (3). With each break of these support levels, we should see bullish momentum in the broader crypto market, which could translate into a Solana rally.
Keep in mind that Solana, while hinting at a run for $192 this morning, could find strong resistance there. Whatever plays out today, its still a weekend, which means you should look for further confirmation into the trading week ahead. Aggressive traders may want to take positions here before SOL breaks these key levels, but this carries considerable risk that the downward trend line continues to be resistance. If that proves to be the case, watch for the next support to be around $175.
Monthly Crypto Analysis: Solana (SOLUSD) – Issue 100 The analyst expects Solana’s price to decline by the specified end time, based on quantitative analysis.
The take-profit level only indicates the potential price range during this period — it’s optional and not a prediction that price will reach it.
You don’t need to go all-in or use leverage to trade wisely.
Allocating just a portion of your funds keeps overall risk minimal.
Our approach follows institutional portfolio principles — not the all-in or blow-up trading style often seen on social media.
Results are measured over the full time window, regardless of whether the take-profit level is hit.
Friday Massacre - cash ready! Another Friday massacre
The chart is looking extremely bearish.
I think the price is going to move to the $95-107 zone where the V-shape recovery happened after April liberation day.
Many people stayed on the sideline without getting into the market. I think the price wants to come back to that level for reset before the next big move up.
It structurally makes sense as well. You can see the fib retracement level in the chart from the previous cycle's ATH to the bear market bottom.
I often (not always) see Fib 0.786 and Fib 0.236 work as the last line of defence. So when the price breaks and closes above Fib 0.786, it eventually moves to the upside even if it temporarily pulls back.
In case of the down trend, if the price breaks and closes below Fib 0.236, the price will eventually move to the downside.
When you look at the Solana weekly chart, the price broke above 0.786 in Nov 24. It failed to continue to move up and spent months consolidating in the tight range. So I think it will eventually go up, but the chart is not telling me no so fast.
All weekly momentums indicate bearish momentum is building up.
I think the price might go to the following areas:
1) $135 - Fib 05, previous lower high, ascending support line, the level the final bull trap happened in 2022
2) $106.5 - Fib 0.382, liquidity pool, April liberation day bottom
3) $100 - psychological level
4) $ 68 - 100 - Fib 0.236-0.382 - absolute capitulation zone.
Another Friday crush?? Price action is extremely bearish. I can see the same price action of the last Friday is unfolding in 1H chart.
When I analyse a chart, I use trendl ines, Fib retracement, EMAs, and momentum indicators. But when the action is so volatile and I feel like I no longer know what the hell is going on, I remove all the indicators and look for clear liquidity zone in higher time frames: Where did the price move up too quickly and left unfilled buy orders, and when did the price drop too quickly and left unfilled well orders?
The problem of Solana is the price has moved down and moved up way to fast at the end of last bull cycle and in the beginning of this bull cycle.
Solana price fell from $250 to $82 in two months at the end of 2021. And after the bull trap in March 2023, the price again fell rapidly from $140 to $36 in two months. After the spectacular fall, Solana spent 16 months basing between 8 and 46 for 16 months. However, when it started to move up in October, it went up too quickly again. It moved from $22 to $200 in 6 months.
The past 18months, Solana spent most of the time in the range bound between $126 and $260, satisfying both buying and selling demands. The price can eventually go up, but I see lots of downwards pressures in every time frame:
Monthly:
Large unmitigated fair value gap between $45 and $80.
Price is trapped inside the descending wedge pattern. It is a bullish pattern. However, if the price does not break and close above the descending resistance line, the price is likely to move to the downside.
Momentum indicators are also in the bull zone. However, RSI and MACD are starting to move to the downside. It makes me think the price correction is happening. It is a monthly chart, so it won't resolve quickly.
Weekly:
I can see a diamond pattern. The price is trapped in the shape of the diamond. It is usually a bearish pattern.
The price was moving up strongly along the ascending support line (purple line). However, the last Friday's crush went down to sweep the liquidity (orange rectangular box) and I can see two more fair value gaps sitting below it.
All weekly momentum indicators are still in the bull zone, however, RSI lines and Stochastic lines are now crossed to the downside. MACD lines are very close to cross as well.
Daily:
The price is still above EMA 200 and also above the support line, however, EMA 55 is about to cross over EMA 12 and 21. Yesterday's candle retested EMA 12/21/55 and closed below it.
MACD are deeply in the bear zone and has no sign of recovery.
RSI and Stochastics are reset to move to the downside.
1H:
EMA12/21/55/200 are perfectly lined up for the bear move.
Before last Friday's crush, the price held above $217 for a few days, but it eventually capitulated. I can see the same set up unfolding. And it is Friday again.
There is an unmitigated fair value gap in the $212-218 zone (immediate one) , so the price can move up there to fake out and move down. I have no idea what the market will do. I can see in a daily chart the price is moving inside the descending parallel channel. So if the price can hold above the purple ascending trend line, it might recover from there.
It is a very difficult market. When you have a strong bias, you will always find what you want to see. I have to pay attention to what the price is doing and hopefully react to it correctly.
Good luck.
Another dip coming? Buy the strength, insteadThe current price action is very similar to that in May/June 2025 (see yellow rectangular box in the charts).
In May, the price started to finally recover from April's bottom. It started to move above the major support/resistance line (purple line in the chart) that was forming a massive cup and handle pattern, but it ende up to be a fake out and the price started to move to the downside again. The real recovery started after the price dropped to the unmitigated fair value gap (blue rectangular box). I am seeing a very similar set up in the current price action.
On last Friday, the price aggressively dropped to the same major support/resistance line (purple line) . The price held that level and spectacularly bounced up on weekend. It was the great buy the dip opportunity, but I had a feeling that there would be another deeper dip to follow.
The reason for that is that higher time momentum indicators were incredibly bearish and it didn't give me any sense of a V-shape recovery. Also a skeptical side of me makes me think that when there is such a clear bounce at the key area, it becomes so obvious where people place S/L (just under Friday's wick). If I were a market maker, I would definitely try to push the price down to take all the liquidity out.
What I am seeing in the charts:
Daily:
Both RSI and MACD are in the bear zone and pointing to the downside.
Stochastic indicator formed positive divergence, but Stochastic is more reactive and when the direction of the stochastic is contradicting RSI and MACD, it is almost always a corrective move.
EMA200 is cutting across three candles. When EMA200 is dead horizontal and sitting on the candles, EMA200 works like a magnet. The price tends to oscillate until strong momentum builds up to push the price to one direction.
4H:
When you see the price in the 4H chart, it bounced up to Fib 0.618 level and EMA 200 (proper pull back) and now it is starting to move to the downside.
But the most important thing is that there is a cluster of unmitigated fair value gap in the $135-$155 zone (orange rectangular block). It takes a lot for the price to move to that level, however, yesterday's daily candle in both SP500 and Nasdaq is trapped inside Friday's massive bear candle. If traditional market starts to break down, Solana will definitely fall further.
Stochastics formed negative divergence and started to roll to the downside.
MACD is still in the best zone and starting to lose bullish momentum.
RSI slow MA line is still in the bear zone and RSI line is already rolling to the downside.
Conclusions:
It is not a bad zone to nibble, but definitely not the time to open a leveraged position!!
It is better to miss the absolutely bottom and buy the strength.
Good luck !
Long —Low Leverage (if any)
In a bullish case for Solana trading around $220, is poised for significant growth due to strong network adoption, with a record $13.9 billion stablecoin supply and robust DeFi activity, coupled with whale accumulation and partnerships like Sharps Technology’s integration with Jupiter Exchange. Technical indicators, including bull flag patterns and EMA crossovers, suggest minimal resistance up to $250, with short-term targets of $230-$260 by October’s end, medium-term goals of $290-$350 by early 2026, and long-term projections potentially exceeding $500 by 2030. The potential approval of spot Solana ETFs could drive billions in institutional inflows, further fueling a rally, though risks like market volatility remain.
Solana Wave Analysis – 13 October 2025
- Solana reversed from key support level 150.00
- Likely to rise to resistance level 210.00
Solana recently reversed up sharply from the key support level 150.00, which has been reversing the price from July, as can be seen below.
The upward reversal from the support level 150.00 stopped the earlier sharp downward ABC correction 2 from September.
Given the recent breakout of the round resistance level 200.00 and the strongly bullish crypto sentiment seen today, Solana can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 210.00.
The second attempt to complete a massive cup and handle ?Solana is forming a massive cup and handle in the daily chart. In early November, Solana finally broke above the resistance line and (temporarily) completed the cup and handle pattern.
It is only the speculation, but if we did not have the US tariff drama, Solana (and the rest of the market) would have started a strong bull cycle.
In August 2025, the price finally broke above the resistance line again. It looked like the price was going to finally start to move to the upside. Then, we experienced another crypto bloodbath due to the US-China tariff issue last Friday. I have no idea how the next few weeks will unfold, but at this stage, the price managed to stay above the support line and it is recovering.
I already hold Solana positive for long term investment, but I intend to open a swing trade position when:
1. Daily RSI lines cross to the upside and break above the descending resistance line.
2. Stochastic move to the 50 zone.
3. MACD lines can stay in the bear zone, but the lines needs to cross and tilt to the upside.
DO NOT BUY THE DIP! Watch what Nasdaq is doing. My overall bias for Solana is bullish, but right now the trend is very bearish. I don't think it is the time to buy the dip and I think more aggressive downside move is possible.
I have listed the reasons for my views below:
Nasdaq chart:
1) The correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq has been very high. Nasdaq has been going up since April 2025 without any decent correction and this week's candle finally formed a clear bearish engulfing candle.
2) Daily RSI and Stochastic have formed clear negative divergence and they are rolling to the downside.
Bitcoin chart:
1) RSI in both monthly and weekly charts show clear negative divergence.
2) The price failed to break above the major ascending resistance line and started to drop aggressively.
Solana chart:
Solana follows Bitcoin and Solana's move is much more aggressive than that of Bitcoin. Based on the moves of Nasdaq and Bitcoin, I am anticipating Solana will continue to drop further. Temporary recovery might be possible but I need to wait and see how Nasdaq moves this week.
Solana weekly chart:
The price is moving inside the parallel channel for the last 5 years.
The price started to move in Oct 2023 and reached $204 at Fib 0.786 level in March 2024. However, since then the price has been basically moving sideways.
I have been using the three ascending trend lines in the weekly chart along with momentum indicators as rough guides to understand the price action.
The price moved up to the top of the green trend line, failed to break above and now is heading down to the purple trend line.
RSI also rolled to the downside. Stochastic formed negative divergence.
Solana daily chart:
Friday's daily candle formed a massive bottom wick. (see the yellow rectangular box in the daily chart).
In regard to a long wick, I found on many occasions if the price doesn't immediately start to move above the closing price in the following day, the length of the wick becomes the range where the price oscillates for a while and often it moves further to the downside. Therefore, I am closely watching the price move in shorter time frames such as 15 min and 1H.
Conclusions:
Given all the positive developments happening in the Solana ecosystem, it is very hard to accept the current price action. However, as a technical trader, I need to respect what the price is telling me and it is clearly bearish. I am not shorting Solana: I am waiting for the signs of recovery.
Three blue rectangular boxes in the weekly chart are unmitigated fair value gaps and I have set the buy orders in these zones. It is difficult to think the price will come down to the bottom blue box, however, if there is a massive capitulation event, it is possible for the price to wick down to that level.
I hope you are all doing well. It is a challenging market.
SOLUSD: Observation🧩 Macro Context
Crypto liquidity improving — BTC dominance stabilizing near 54%.
Fed’s rate stance softening could support risk assets.
Institutional accumulation on Solana ecosystem (DeFi volume and NFTs rising again).
Q4 historically favors altcoin rotation, and Solana remains a top liquidity magnet post-Ethereum.
🔮 WaverVanir Forecast
If Solana holds $181.45 and reclaims $200+, the path to $295–$300 opens into Q1 2026.
However, a break below $175 invalidates the bullish bias and re-enters deep discount territory.
SOLUSD 4H: $215 Support Lost, Eyeing $200-205 Trend Change Zone
SOLUSD 4H: $215 Support Lost, Eyeing $200-205 Trend Change Zone
Chart Overview:
On the 4-hour timeframe, Solana (SOL/USD) has undergone a significant shift in market dynamics. After a strong bullish rally in late September and early October, the price has broken down from a consolidation pattern, signaling a clear return of bearish momentum.
Recent Price Action:
Solana had a robust recovery from its late September lows (around 195-200), driving price upward along an ascending green trendline. This bullish surge pushed SOL back towards the higher resistance zones. However, the rally started to lose steam as it approached the 240 Flip Zone and encountered strong selling pressure below the 250 Key Resistance (Sell Order Block).
Following this, SOL entered a period of consolidation, attempting to maintain structure above the 220 to 224 Deciding Area. This zone acted as a critical battleground for bulls and bears. Unfortunately for bulls, the ascending green trendline that had supported the rally was broken decisively. This breakdown was then confirmed by the price establishing a clear descending red trend channel, indicating a new bearish trend.
The crucial development is the recent breakdown below the 215 Key Support. This level, which offered bounces in the past, has been lost, and the price is now accelerating downwards, firming up the bearish outlook.
Key Resistance Levels to Watch:
215 Key Support (now Resistance): This is the immediate hurdle for any attempted rebound. Price must reclaim and hold this level to alleviate immediate bearish pressure.
220 to 224 Deciding Area: A pivotal zone. A successful move back above here would suggest a potential shift in momentum, but it will face resistance from the descending red trendline.
230 1st Resistance: A significant horizontal resistance level that acted as a ceiling during the recent consolidation.
240 Flip Zone: This area previously served as both support and resistance, and would be a strong barrier for any substantial recovery.
250 Key Resistance (Sell Order Block): The ultimate overhead resistance, representing the peak of the prior rally and a significant supply zone.
Key Support Levels to Monitor:
With Solana currently trading around 209 and actively breaking down:
200 to 205, Trend Change: This is the most critical immediate support zone. This area marked the low before the previous bullish rally began. A bounce here is crucial for bulls to prevent a deeper correction.
Significance: A break below this zone would indicate a potential trend change back to a more significant bearish structure, opening the door for much lower prices not visible on this chart.
Outlook & Scenarios:
Bearish Scenario: If Solana fails to find strong buying interest and support within the 200 to 205, Trend Change zone, a decisive break below this range would confirm a deeper bearish trend. This could lead to an accelerated move towards unexplored lower price levels.
Bullish Scenario: For bulls to regain control, SOL needs to first stabilize and strongly reject further downside at the 200 to 205 zone. A subsequent move to reclaim the 215 Key Support (turning it back into support) and then breaking above the 220 to 224 Deciding Area and the descending red trend channel would be necessary to signal a potential reversal or a return to bullish consolidation.
Conclusion:
Solana is currently under strong bearish pressure on the 4-hour chart, having decisively broken below the 215 Key Support and consolidating within a descending trend channel. The market is now actively testing the critical 200 to 205, Trend Change zone. Traders should remain highly vigilant, as the reaction at this level will be pivotal in determining Solana's short-to-medium-term direction. A failure to hold this support could open the floodgates for further downside, while a strong bounce could offer a glimmer of hope for a recovery.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
Sol/Usdt - Breakout Or BreakdownResistance Zone
A green shaded area labeled "Resistance" indicates a key price level where price has previously failed to break higher.
This is a supply zone where sellers have stepped in multiple times.
Price has tested this resistance area several times but failed to break out convincingly.
2. CHoCH (Change of Character)
"CHoCH" is marked below the resistance, signaling a trend shift from bullish to bearish.
Typically, a CHoCH occurs when price breaks a recent higher low—indicating weakening bullish momentum and potential start of bearish move.
3. Decision Point
Labeled in blue as “Decision Point”.
This is a critical area where price may:
Break above and confirm a bullish continuation.
Reject and fall, confirming bearish pressure.
This zone could be used to plan entries based on confirmation (e.g., breakout or rejection).
4. Target Scenarios
Two possible scenarios drawn with arrows:
Bullish scenario: If price breaks above the decision point/resistance, the next target lies in the upper 230s or beyond.
Bearish scenario: If price rejects from this zone, it could lead to a bearish continuation, targeting lower support levels.
5. Volume
Volume bars at the bottom show varying levels of interest.
Increasing red volume toward the CHoCH indicates strong selling pressure.
Conclusion / Trading Plan
Watch the Decision Point zone closely.
Bullish bias: On a breakout with strong volume and bullish candle close above resistance.
Bearish bias: On rejection from the resistance zone with a lower high and a strong bearish candle.
Use tight risk management due to the proximity of volatility around the decision point.
SOL: Undervalued Layer1 Amid #SOL Hype? $380 in Sight?SOL: Undervalued Layer1 Amid #SOL Hype? $380 in Sight?
Price $210.94 (-1.07%), fueled by TVL $12.2B surge and X airdrops, undervalued with 31.83% YTD, questioning if ETF inflows drive breakout.
Fundamental Analysis
Market cap $114.55B, TVL $12.2B up 57% 6M, supply growth stable; Lynch-like growth emphasis on 198% TVL rise, PEG adapted low vs peers; DCF projects $300+ on adoption moat; opportunity cost vs ETH favors efficiency, inversion warns outages.
Positive:
3.88% monthly rise.
67% staked.
Negative:
High volatility.
Rival competition.
SWOT Analysis
Strengths: Fast DeFi hub.
Weaknesses: Past downtimes.
Opportunities: ETF in #Altseason.
Threats: Regulations.
Technical Analysis
Sell signal short-term. Price: $210.94, VWAP N/A. Key indicators: RSI: Below 40/oversold.
MACD: N/A.
Moving Averages: Neutral.Support/Resistance: $177/$214. Patterns/Momentum: Potential rebound. Bullish | Bearish.
Scenarios and Risk Management
Bullish: Break $214, DCA to $380 on hype; second-order thinking amplifies network effects.
Bearish: To $150.
Neutral: Range $177-214.Risk Tips: 10% stops, diversify crypto, DCA weekly.
Conclusion/Outlook
Bullish on ecosystem, lollapalooza from #Crypto trends parabolic. Watch ETFs. Fits layer1 theme with #SOL upside. Take? Comment!
Solana: Trendline Breakdown & Support Test
Solana: Trendline Breakdown & Support Test
Solana (SOLUSD) on the 4-hour timeframe has recently broken down from its ascending trendline and is currently testing the "220 to 224 Immediate Support" zone, trading around 222.04 after a significant drop.
Bullish Scenario: For a reversal, SOL must reclaim and hold above the "220-224 Immediate Sup-port" and push past the "230" level (which was previously support), targeting "240 current Re-sistance".
Bearish Scenario (Immediate): If Solana fails to maintain the "220 to 224 Immediate Support" or gets rejected when attempting to retest the broken trendline from below, it would signal further bearish pressure, leading to a test of the "215 Key Support."
Bearish Scenario (Deeper): A confirmed breakdown below the "215 Key Support" would invalidate the recent bullish structure and likely lead to a deeper retracement towards the critical "200 to 205, Trend Change" zone, where a significant re-evaluation of the trend would be necessary.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.