Solana (SOL): Wave 5 Starting or Set to Crash?Solana (SOL): Wave 5 Starting or Set to Crash?
Weekly Scenarios
Bullish scenario: SOL holds support at ~$197, then breaks through ~$260.83 → possible rise to ~$300+.
Consolidation: The price trades in the ~$197–$260 range without a clear direction, preparing for momentum.
Bearish scenario: A breakout below ~$183 with volume → possible correction to ~$174 and below.
✅ Conclusion
Weekly analysis shows: SOL is at a crossroads.
A hold of support near ~$197 and a break of resistance at ~$260.83 could trigger a new uptrend.
However, a breakout below ~$183 significantly increases the risk of a correction.
Monitor the wave structure, volatility levels, and volume confirmation before choosing a strategy.
Trade ideas
Golden Zones and Moving AveragesSOL is at the O.5 Fibonacci golden zone area and resting at the 50 EMA. If it breaks below 173.88 area, price may possibly head to 155$ price range. We have some red candles, however bulls still have the upper hand; bulls need bullish candles at the 190$ area, for the pullback to be hopefully over.
SOL Waiting at the weekly pivot...CRYPTOCAP:SOL has fallen out of the wedge, an interior wave 5 completion structure, which suggests we should see a broader sell off to the next High Volume Node in interior wave 2, $120. It is concerning no new high was made and backs up a deeper correction. This would also meet the ascending the weekly 200EMA.
Weekly RSi is crossed bearish but price remains above the weekly pivot and EMA which is bullish. Direction is ambiguous for now. A push back into the wedge would flip the outlook bullish.
Wave 5 target remains $600 at the R5 weekly pivot.
Safe trading
Getting bullishMy macro bias for Solana is bullish. I invest in Solana and I mainly hodle the asset. The price action of Solana in the last 18 months has been very difficult, therefore, I have been avoiding to trade it. However, I am becoming cautiously optimistic as a Solana bull and I can see some clear signs of price recovery.
Look at a green major Fib retracement from the previous cycle ATH at $262 to the bear bottom at $8.25.
1) the price moved rapidly to $208 at Fib 0.786 in March 24. It spent about a month consolidating around that level but it eventually failed to break above and spent 8 months consolidating between Fib 0.382 and 0.786 range.
2) The price eventually broke above 0.786 and 0.1 and reached historical ATH at $293 in Jan 2025 and started a sharp decline to $95, which is roughly Fib 0.382 area.
Look at blue major Fib retracement from historical ATH to the recent bottom ($293 to $95).
1). The price moved to $250 at Fib 0.786 in mid Sept 2025. It spent several days consolidating around that level but it eventually failed to break to the Fib 0.382 zone at $172.
Based on the two major Fib retracements, I am watching to see if the price will hold above Fib 0.382 level. It is normal for the price to consolidate between Fib 0.618 and 0.382 but I often see Fib 0.786 and 0.236 to work as the last line of defense. Once the price goes above or below Fib 0786 and 0.236, the trend can start to break down. So as long as the price stays above Fib 0.236, but ideally above 0.382, my bias is bullish.
$144 (red horizontal line in the chart) is the level Solana had the last bull trap and started the macro bear cycle. This level should work as a strong support level.
I keep adding more to my position when the price dips to Fib 0.382 area at the moment but it is for investment.
For swing trading, I am waiting for the following conditions:
1) Daily candle closes above previous swing higher low at $191.80/
2) EMA 12 > EMA 21 > EMA 55
3) A daily candle is above EMA 200.
4) RSI lines cross to the upside and ideally enter the bull zone.
5) Stochastic are moving to the upside but not overbought.
6) MACD can stay in the bear zone but is starting to tilt to the upside.
LONG SOLSOL chart looks explosive, could a big move be coming? The macro setup is really nice... ETF and DATS coming, more clarity on govt regulation, stable and RWA tokenization is all the rage. SOL have done a nice job testing the support levels it needed to, i'm long coins (no leverage), looking for a move to 250 and hopefully higher.
Solana: Key Levels to WatchSolana has been in a downward trend since October 6th, but we are seeing some hints at a reversal. This is not yet confirmed, and weekend price action tends to be a poor indicator of the week ahead. This chart tries to plot the key levels that SOL/USD needs to break through in order to show strong bullish momentum going into the end of October.
The levels to watch are $192, as the first resistance. And if Solana can break above that, it needs to smash through the $200 level. If that were to play out, keep in mind that $205 has frequently been a key support/resistance level as well. A break above $200 may stall at the $205 level for a while, and bulls will need to see it stay above $200.
The USDT.D chart is an important indicator of the allocation of capital into, or out of crypto. Traders should watch for a drop in USDT dominance to confirm that there is ample liquidity to maintain a Solana rally. The key levels to watch for is a USDT.D break below 4.88% (1), 4.72% (2), and 4.53% (3). With each break of these support levels, we should see bullish momentum in the broader crypto market, which could translate into a Solana rally.
Keep in mind that Solana, while hinting at a run for $192 this morning, could find strong resistance there. Whatever plays out today, its still a weekend, which means you should look for further confirmation into the trading week ahead. Aggressive traders may want to take positions here before SOL breaks these key levels, but this carries considerable risk that the downward trend line continues to be resistance. If that proves to be the case, watch for the next support to be around $175.
Monthly Crypto Analysis: Solana (SOLUSD) – Issue 100 The analyst expects Solana’s price to decline by the specified end time, based on quantitative analysis.
The take-profit level only indicates the potential price range during this period — it’s optional and not a prediction that price will reach it.
You don’t need to go all-in or use leverage to trade wisely.
Allocating just a portion of your funds keeps overall risk minimal.
Our approach follows institutional portfolio principles — not the all-in or blow-up trading style often seen on social media.
Results are measured over the full time window, regardless of whether the take-profit level is hit.
Solana outlook following recent market crash.Last week, an announcement by President Trump triggered a market crash, resulting in one of the worst trading days for crypto investors this year. Solana (SOL) was also affected, with its price plunging sharply to $172, erasing billions of dollars from the overall crypto market.
However, sentiment began to shift after Trump had a softer tone regarding U.S.–China relations last Friday. Also, the hints at improved economic ties have brought renewed optimism to the crypto and global markets. Historically, periods of fear and uncertainty are when institutional investors and whales tend to enter the market—taking advantage of lower prices while retail investors remain cautious.
On the daily chart, Solana is currently finding support in the $173–$174 range, with the most recent daily candle showing strong bullish momentum. This could be an early signal of a trend reversal. Given the technical setup and improved macro sentiment, initiating long positions around current levels could be a strategic move—with a medium- to long-term target of $300 in 2026.
This is a trade worth watching, and I'm optimistic about Solana's potential in the coming months. What do you think? Comments and suggestions?
Solana Defends Triple VWAP Confluence — Structure Still IntactSOL/USD is testing a major confluence zone where three anchored VWAPs (from the April low, January 1st, and the all-time high) align with the ascending trendline that has guided price all year. The cluster between 174–182 has acted as strong dynamic support, reinforced by the 100- and 200-day SMAs. Holding this base could set the stage for a retest of 198–215, with a breakout above opening room toward 252. Breakdown below the trendline would shift momentum short-term bearish, but macro structure remains higher-low intact.
Bullish reversal pattern + bullish flag (is the bottom in now?)Observed a bullish reversal pattern, followed by a bullish flag pattern. We made a double bottom today. I think this might be the actual dip that can be bought. Wondering if we remain above 180$ for a longer time since there is quite some fear on the market..
SolanoThis Volume Profile is a problem for Solano. In my last related post, I mentioned that I'm not a fan of this chart setup, because there's low volume, and a huge gap to the VPVR shelf. I said I see trepidation on support, and nothing has changed my opinion since then.
This looks like trouble below for Sol. I would bail. I'm not in it, nor have I been, but I would bail.






















