SOL CRUSHING-bearish risks developing🔻 4-Hour Bearish Thesis
🔸 Price Action Clues
SOL is currently stalling at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement (~$198.18) of the full macro move — a classic profit-taking zone.
Multiple upper wicks and indecisive candles at resistance indicate supply absorption and buyer exhaustion.
After a steep rally, price is moving sideways in a rising wedge/flag, which is a bearish continuation pattern if broken downward.
🔸 Momentum + RSI
RSI at 76 is extended and flattening — often a zone where short-term pullbacks begin.
No confirmed bearish divergence yet, but momentum is weakening compared to earlier stages of the rally.
🔸 Volume Profile
Volume on recent pushes is lower than during breakout, suggesting diminishing bullish conviction.
Bearish if a breakdown below $194 occurs — that's the former breakout level and wedge support.
🧨 4H Breakdown Confirmation
Break below $194 (key short-term support) → opens downside targets:
🔻 $186–$182 (prior breakout base)
🔻 $171 (0.382 Fib retracement zone)
🔻 Daily Bearish Thesis
🔸 Price Action + Key Zone
Price is pressing against the neckline target ($198.18) of the inverse H&S pattern.
Stalling under the red resistance line and 0.5 Fib.
Recent candle closed with a small upper wick + reduced body size, hinting at hesitation after a parabolic run.
🔸 RSI Risk
RSI is at 80.41 — very overbought on daily.
While not immediately bearish on its own, this often precedes either:
Sharp correction, or
Prolonged consolidation
🔸 Fibonacci & Macro Resistance
$198–$200 is a confluence zone of:
0.5 Fib retracement
Previous structural resistance
Measured target of inverse H&S pattern ALREADY HIT.
This is not a great spot to initiate new longs — any weakness here invites a pullback.
⚠️ Invalidation of Bearish Thesis
A strong daily close above $200–$204, ideally with expanding volume, would invalidate the bearish outlook and shift momentum toward $219 (0.618 Fib).
🧠 Summary:
Yes, there is a short-to-mid-term bearish risk developing on both 4h and daily:
Overbought RSI
Stalling at major Fib resistance
Decreasing momentum
Vulnerable if $194–$195 breaks
Remember: this WILL MOST LIKELY BE A SHORT-SHORT pullback, not a confirmed trend reversal… yet. BUT I'VE INITIATED A STARTING POSITION!
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. DrAnkin Smöökëē Whizkee. Edumacational Purpiz Only!
