Despite AI valuation pressures, US500 outlook remains positive.
Robust US data tempered Fed rate-cut bets, dragging equities lower for a third day, though investors expect the pullback to be short-lived. Nvidia’s (NVDA) 100 bln USD investment in OpenAI has raised questions over vendor financing risks, deepening worries over elevated valuations. Still, institutions expect US equities to hold a tactical bullish stance. JPMorgan (JPM) projected that while a government shutdown and fragile sentiment may trigger midweek weakness, solid economic growth, a resilient labor market, and AI momentum could drive the S&P; 500 to 7,000 by year-end.
US500 remains within the ascending channel, sustaining its steady uptrend. After briefly testing EMA21 and the channel’s lower bound, the index rebounded, indicating the potential extension of a bullish structure. If US500 continues to hold within the channel, the index may gain upward momentum toward the resistance at 6700. Conversely, if US500 breaks below the channel’s lower bound and EMA21, the index could retreat toward the support at 6530.
Trade ideas
US500 Long Idea: Bullish Retest of Flipped Support LevelHello TradingView Community,
This post outlines a potential long trade setup on the USA S&P 500 Index (US500) based on the 15-minute chart.
Technical Analysis:
The index is currently in a clear uptrend, showing consistent higher highs and higher lows. We can identify a key horizontal price level at approximately 6,571.95. This level acted as a significant resistance point in the past, where the price struggled to break through.
Recently, we have seen a decisive breakout above this resistance, which is a strong bullish signal. The trading idea is based on the "resistance-turned-support" principle. We are anticipating a pullback to this broken level, which is now expected to act as a new support floor. A bounce from this area would confirm the continuation of the bullish trend.
Trade Setup:
The long position tool on the chart visualizes a specific plan for this bullish scenario:
Entry: Approximately 6,571.95 (at the retest of the new support).
Stop Loss: 6,531.55 (placed below the support structure to protect against a failed retest).
Take Profit: 6,689.67 (targeting a new higher high in the current trend).
This setup provides a structured approach with a clear risk-to-reward ratio for a potential move higher.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and discussion purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading indices and other financial instruments involves significant risk. Please conduct your own research and manage your risk accordingly.
The Truth Behind Profitable TRADING ( must read)Please note : This post isn't meant to scare you away from trading. Quite the oposite. It's meant to show you what NO ONE TALKS ABOUT IT. Better to see it clearly now than learn it expensively later. This post comes from someone with more than 7 years of market experience
♾️How To Really Become Profitable?
Profitable trading is not about finding a magic holy grail, strategy, course or even mentor.
Of course, they can help you, but at the end of the day... You are the ONLY ONE behind the final click.
Profitable trading is all about you! but how?
Let’s get into it !
The average human is not wired to properly trade the financial markets...We are wired in the worst way to be a consistently profitable trader. Trading goes against the human psychology.
To all those learning to trade the financial markets, this game is not what you think it is.
Most books and courses simply do not paint an accurate picture of the reality. Most of traders think the only way to become profitable is focusing on the wrong things:
❌ WHAT WON'T MAKE YOU PROFITABLE
MORE INDICATORS
MORE HARD WORK
MORE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
MORE WRONG EDUCATION
The truth is that all of these will never really bring you consistent results.
Here’s a list of 6 elements that from my experience are game changers. I will go deep in each element so that you can really understand. Do us a favor and please support and comment this IDEA so that we can reach more traders.
The first and most important element:
✅ PROPER RISK MANAGEMENT
That is the number one killer and doer.
For most traders, they open a position size much larger than they can mentally afford. The problem is that by over risking you automatically let emotions have control over you.
someone once told me:
When emotions increase, accuracy decrease.
Trading is a Game of probabilities you can do everything right and end up wrong and you can do everything wrong and end up winning. There is a random distribution of winning and losing trades. You must be ready to become confortable by losing. You must understand your degree of tolerance. Only you know your risk profile. Only you know what you can afford to lose
Only you know the weight of your current life situation. Only you know you risk apetite.
If you are having a bad situation with risk, just reduce your risk so you can get back the control. You must find the proper position size. This is not about the size of your account or the size of the position in dollars. It's about how confortable you are with proper position sizing.
PROPER POSITION SIZE IS ALSO MENTAL !
✅ PROPER PSYCHOLOGY
For most traders without seing consistent results, they believe their system needs some implementations or modifications, and they focus more on the “analysis” side by learning more stuff. They are in a infinite loop hoping to find that next holy grail. The truth is that you don't need more technical analysis indicators or course. You just need to sit in front of a mirror and understand how your bain acts when you trade.
You must understand how you are affected when trading.
There are many psychological aspects you should focus. We can talk years about it. I advise you to read Mark Douglas for that. One of the most important things is to Dissolve or reduce all your fears. You must learn to trade by dealing daily with your FEARS. You must understand and have a deep talk with yourself to see the way fear control your mind.
Here are 4 types of fears when it comes to trading:
Fear of being wrong
Losing money ,
Distribute profit
Missing out
By other side you must understand the neuro associative conditioning that created good trading habits and self-destructive habits.
Here are some examples of different neuro associative conditioning:
Pro trades see retracements as opportunity to add to their positions while newbies see retracements as threats and might close the trade in profit in a simple pullback.
Pro traders have hope when they have a winning trade and despair when they have a losing trade. While newbies have hope when they have a losing trade because they don't want to be proven wrong, they also have despair to distribute profits when they have a winning trade simply doing a pullback
there are infinite examples. EVERY TRADER HAS IT'S OWN neuro associative conditioning that make or break them.
✅ Healthy LIFE BALANCE
As Paul Sartre said, we are our choices.
What we do with our 24 hours will define the kind of person we are & we become. This is all about changing and adopting proper habits in your pro and personal life.
If you don't manage to balance your personal life... All those bad vibes will send resistive energy and when you get this energy you can either shut down or step through and doo exactly what you are supposed to do regardless. Take care of your personal habits and problems.
Avoid bad habits that drain your energy and focus on good habits that will make your BODY MIND perform well or at least well such as working out, sleeping well, eating clean etc...
Trading is not made for the undisciplined human being. Take care of your body & mind.
Before getting serious with trading, I I used to have a lot of bad habits that honestly, I’m not proud of it. But everything can change.
It’s all about building a proper internal well-being environment.
✅ THINK IN TERMS OF PROBABILITIES
Mismanaging risk is a bad habit. Most of traders have the worst trading habits because they asume the outcome and they don’t like to be wrong. They assume they know what the outcome will be, so they bail out of trades. They think it will make them more money, so they risk more in one single trade because they believe this trade is a high probability one that it will make them money. They have a trade by trade approach. they execute with a Can’t lose mentality
They assume that after a few wins the next trade is likely to be a winner, so they double up. They assume that after a few losses the next trade is likely to be a loss, so they do not execute or they reduce the risk.
It’s okay we all have been there.
By adopting simple proper” SERIES OF TRADE APPROACH” your outcome will change and you will become profitable in the long run. This is what we call think in terms of probabilities.
This is the approach that a few minorities of the traders use. This approach is not based on predicting anything; rather this is a precise pre-defined system of pulling the trigger when your system or edge presents itself, and the outcome of the trade is irrelevant. ALL YOU CARE IS about the outcome of a series of trades.
We take a series of trades, and we are entirely focused on the outcome of the series, and NOT the outcome of each individual trade. The outcome of each trade and attempting to predict the outcome of each and every trade is an uphill battle. You won't be able to predict the outcome of one single trade but yes you will be able to predict the outcome of a series of trades
✅ SOLID PREDEFINED EDGE
Mentors can transfer you knowledge but never experience. You need to use their experience to create your own plan make sure to set rules to find good trades execute those good trades and let those good trades play out. Trading is very personal. What might work for some might not work for you and that's okay. What might work for you might not work for someone else. Everyone is different.
✅ LASER FOCUS LEARNING CURVE
Those who make it in this business were laser-focused; they made a decision to either be right or wrong. A laser shines a coherent beam of light and is powerfully focused on a single point. That point will undergo immense heat or pressure. Same applies to learning to trade. It requires all your energy to be put forth on a single objective.
Compare this with a light bulb or the sun, which shines its rays outwardly with its energy distributed in all directions. You will barely feel the heat as the energy is unfocused and dissipates accordingly. This applies to those traders who have issues They doubt their decisions and jump from one strategy to another they chase the holy grail they change from system, they buy multiple courses, change of style etc….. There is million ways to make money in the markets but only you will make it with your own way. My advice if to become like a laser focus.
SOLID EDGE SOLID EXECUTION NOTHING ELSE.
Make a decision and instead become focused like the laser beam on what it is that you desire to develop, and you are more likely to achieve your target.
In order to keep in mind this, remember this quote of Bruce Lee “I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but I fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times.”…
⚔️ Final Word
Trading can be simply if you focus on the right things and quit the wrong things.
Forex weekly review: fundamental analysis.Contrary to many predictions (mine included), the USD maintained its strength throughout the week starting Monday 22 September.
The USD has been on the front foot since the FOMC meeting. Even though rate cuts are coming, it won't be as fast paced as the market priced in a few weeks ago. And this week the 'rate cut dial' moved again, (two cuts instead of three before year end?), thanks to a bout of positive US data (GDP and unemployment claims).
Friday's 'in line with concenciuos' PCE data didn't give any clues as to what next week will bring, trading is a lot more straightforward when data releases are 'outside of concenciuos'.
All things considered, inflation is falling (albeit slowly), company earnings remain upbeat, 'softening data' isn't softening too rapidly. Barring geopolitical concerns or fresh tariff woes, the 'soft landing narrative' remains. And I'll behind the new week with a 'tentative risk on bias'.
My preference for a 'risk on' trade is AUD or GBP long vs JPY. But I am prepared to trade whichever currency has the momentum at the time Vs the JPY. And it is still up in the air as to whether the USD could be the long part or the short part of a 'risk on'' trade.
Failing a risk on trade. It does seem the currencies are at times behaving according to 'interest rate speculation' the NZD in particular is having periods of weakness (dovish RNBZ, 0.5bp rate cut incoming?). Which opens the door to an AUD (hot CPI) NZD relative fundamental trade.
Finally, the SNB held interest rates at 0%, seemingly reluctant to revert to negative rates. The SNB's hands are tied in terms of future moves. And until inflation falls far enough to warrant another cut, the CHF could remain relatively strong.
On a personal note, I unfortunately missed the 'prime opportunities of the week'. ( Post CPI AUD long and Thursday's post US data USD long). It's easy to say with the benefit of hindsight but I would suggest both were valid opportunities in the immediate aftermath of the data release.
Instead, I had to make do with a 'speculative' AUD USD 4hr support and resistance trade, which stopped out as the USD maintained its strength.
Let's see what the new week brings.
My view on S&P 500Looking at the structure, I think the S&P 500 may first pull back to retest the support zone, just as it did in April of this year when price dipped to that same area before continuing higher.
This time, the support and the 50-week SMA are aligning together, creating a strong confluence that could serve as a base for the next upward move.
From there, my view is that SPX could rebound and eventually push into a new all-time high around 7,000.
🎯 Conclusion: My outlook is constructive — I expect SPX to repeat its April-like retest, find strength at the confluence of support and the 50 SMA together, and then rally toward the 7,000 level. Still, markets are unpredictable, and this remains only my view.
👉 For more structured market insights and professional analysis, follow along.
SPX SEP-OCT 2025SPX rejected at the 6600 area after heavy institutional distribution (-352B). Price is consolidating above key support zones at 6500–6450 and 6350–6200. Stronger demand sits at 6100, where the 3.4T daily absorption was previously noted. Below that, unfilled gaps remain at 5800 and 5350.
Upside target: 7000 if supports hold and momentum returns.
Downside target: 5800 gap fill if 6350 breaks.
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US 500 trade idea1. The market is currently above both moving averages: 50 ema and 200 ema
2. H4 support zone was tested, market showed some rejections, and is bouncing off to the upside
4. RSI >50, This confirms momentum to the upside
5. Buy the market at a current price and apply proper risk management (at least 2:1 risk to reward)
The AI Bubble's Final Act: Why $SP:SPX 6,700 May Be the TopThe AI Bubble's Final Act: Why SP:SPX 6,700 May Be the Top
Unemployment + Rate Cuts = Recession (12 for 12 Since 1970)
The Death Cross Pattern
There's a simple rule that's worked for 55 years: When the Fed cuts rates while unemployment is rising from cycle lows, recession follows within 12 months - every single time.
Think of it like a doctor taking your temperature while giving you painkillers. The medicine might make you feel better temporarily, but if the fever is rising, something serious is wrong underneath.
Current Status:
✅ Fed just cut rates ECONOMICS:USINTR (September 2025)
✅ Unemployment ECONOMICS:USUR rising from 3.4% cycle low
✅ TVC:SPX at all-time high ($6,700)
Historical Result: 12/12 times = recession + 35% average equity crash
The Precedent: Crisis Follows a Script
2000 Dot-Com Bubble:
Setup: TVC:SPX at ATH (1,550), ECONOMICS:USUR unemployment at 3.9%, ECONOMICS:USINTR Fed starts cutting
Crisis: Technology "revolution" story breaks down
Result: -49% crash over 2.5 years
Recovery: 7 years to new highs
2008 Financial Crisis:
Setup: CBOE:SPX at ATH (1,576), ECONOMICS:USUR unemployment at 4.4%, ECONOMICS:USINTR Fed starts cutting
Crisis: Housing/credit bubble bursts
Result: -57% crash over 1.5 years
Recovery: 5 years to new highs
2025 AI Bubble:
Setup: SPREADEX:SPX at ATH (6,700), ECONOMICS:USUR unemployment at 3.4%→4.2%, ECONOMICS:USINTR Fed starts cutting ✅
Crisis: AI productivity story meets employment reality
Projection: -35 to -45% crash over 18 months
Recovery: 3-5 years (faster due to tech infrastructure remaining)
The AI Employment Paradox
The Productivity Mirage
Wall Street celebrates AI boosting productivity, but here's the paradox:
productivity gains = job losses = reduced consumer spending = recession.
Think of it like a factory owner celebrating a new machine that replaces 100 workers. Great for margins, terrible for the local economy when those 100 families stop spending.
Jobs ECONOMICS:USNFP at Risk by Sector:
Customer Service: 2M jobs (chatbots replacing agents)
Software Development: 500K jobs (AI-assisted coding reducing teams)
Transportation: 3M jobs (autonomous vehicles accelerating)
Administrative: 4M jobs (AI handling routine tasks)
Content Creation: 1M jobs (AI writing, design, video)
Total Impact: 10+ million jobs facing displacement over next 2-3 years
Why This Time is Different?
Unlike previous automation waves that created new job categories, AI is targeting cognitive work directly. A factory worker could become a service worker, but what does a displaced knowledge worker become?
Valuation Extremes: 1929 Levels with 2025 Leverage
Current Valuation Metrics:
Shiller CAPE: 38+ (higher than 1929's 33)
Buffett Indicator: 195% (market cap/GDP, historical average 85%)
Price/Sales: 3.3x (vs 1.4x historical average)
Forward P/E: 23x (on optimistic AI earnings assumptions)
Valuations today exceed 1929 by most measures - but with far more leverage embedded in the system. If 1929 was a valuation bubble, 2025 is that bubble layered with derivatives, corporate debt, and passive flows.
The Leverage Layer:
Margin Debt: $1.023 trillion (record high)( as of July 2025, ycharts )
Corporate Debt/GDP: 85% (vs 45% in 2000)
Derivatives Exposure: $700 trillion notional ( as of June 2025, BIS semiannual data )
ETF/Passive Flows: $1.5 trillion annually (forced selling on reversals)
When liquidity stress hits, derivatives amplify shocks - notional exposure dwarfs underlying assets.
Think of today's market like a house of cards built on a trampoline. Even small bounces can bring the whole structure down.
Technical Breakdown: The Charts Don't Lie
Major Warning Signals:
Market breadth has deteriorated from 90% in Q4 2024 to ~60% today,
Defensives led earlier in the year,
TVC:VIX Volatility’s floor has shifted higher
Credit risk appetite (HYG/TLT) is stretched.
Together, these signal fragility beneath the index surface.
The Three-Stage Technical Collapse:
Stage 1 - The Warning (Now-Q4 2025):
Current Level: $6,700
Initial Support: $6,200 (previous resistance)
Character: Failed rallies, rotating leadership, "healthy correction" narrative
Target: 5,800-6,000 (-10 to -13%)
Stage 2 - The Cascade (Q4 2025-Q2 2026):
Breaking Point: Below 5,800 triggers algorithmic selling
Character: "Buy the dip" stops working, margin calls begin
Target: 4,800-5,200 (-25 to -30%)
Stage 3 - Capitulation (Q2-Q4 2026):
Final Flush: Panic selling, ETF redemptions
Character: "Markets will never recover" sentiment peaks
Target: 3,700-4,200 (-35 to -45%)
The Catalyst: When Reality Meets Hype
Q4 2025 Earnings Season - The Reckoning
Companies will face impossible questions:
"You spent $50B on AI - where's the revenue growth?"
"Productivity is up 20%, why are you laying off workers?"
"If AI is so transformative, why are margins declining?"
The Employment Data Domino Effect:
October/Nov NFP: First print above 250K unemployment claims
November Consumer Spending: Down 2%+ as job fears spread
December Holiday Sales: Weakest since 2008
January Layoff Announcements: Tech companies start "right-sizing"
Think of it like the moment in 2000 when investors finally asked: "How exactly does Pets.com make money?" or 2007 when they wondered: "What's actually in these mortgage bonds?"
Sector-by-Sector Breakdown
Technology (-50 to -70%)
AI hype stocks get destroyed first
Software companies face declining growth + competition
Semiconductor cycle turns negative
Biggest Losers: NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL
Consumer Discretionary (-40 to -55%)
Unemployment hits spending immediately
High-end retailers crushed first
Auto sales collapse with higher rates
Biggest Losers: TSLA, AMZN, NKE
Financials (-30 to -45%)
Credit losses surge as economy weakens
Interest margin compression
Commercial real estate exposure
Biggest Losers: Regional banks, non-bank lenders
Relative Outperformers (-15 to -25%)
Utilities, Healthcare, Consumer Staples
Companies with genuine AI cost savings
High-dividend yielders in low-rate environment
Key Dates and Catalysts
October 2025:
Jobs report (first warning?)
Q3 earnings disappointments
Fed meeting (dovish pivot?)
November 2025:
Election aftermath volatility
Black Friday sales data
Thanksgiving week low-volume crashes
December 2025:
Year-end tax selling
Institutional rebalancing
Holiday retail reality check
Q1 2026:
Layoff announcements surge
Earnings guidance slashed
Credit events begin
The Recovery Setup
Why This Crash Creates Opportunity:
Valuation Reset: P/E ratios back to historical norms
Weak Hands Flushed: Margin traders eliminated
Government Response: Fiscal + monetary stimulus
AI Infrastructure Remains: Real productivity gains continue post-bubble
Recovery Timeline:
Bottom: Q4 2026 around 3,700-4,200
Initial Rally: 30-50% bounce over 6 months
New Bull Market: Begins 2027 with stronger foundation
New Highs: 2029-2030 timeframe
Risk Management Rules
This Analysis Fails If:
Fed pivots to massive QE before crisis
Fiscal stimulus exceeds $2 trillion quickly
AI productivity gains offset job losses faster than projected
Geopolitical crisis overrides economic fundamentals
Probability Assessment:
60%: Correction to 4,800-5,500 range (25-30% decline)
25%: Major crash to 3,700-4,200 range (40-45% decline)
15%: Continued melt-up through 2026 (soft landing achieved)
Conclusion: The End of the Everything Era
At SPX 6,700 with unemployment rising and the Fed cutting rates, we're witnessing the final act of the 15-year "everything bubble."
The AI revolution is real, but like the Internet in 2000, revolutionary technology doesn't prevent financial gravity.
The bubble is ending exactly like the previous ones - with everyone believing "this time is different" right until it isn't.
Smart money is already rotating defensive. The question isn't whether a correction is coming - it's whether you'll be positioned for it.
SPX Daily OutlookThe index continues to trade inside a well-defined rising channel. After setting a new ATH at point B, price retraced into a double bottom at C near the 6,600 support zone — aligning with the 0.328 retracement. The rebound from that level keeps the bullish structure intact.
⚡ Key Levels to Watch:
Support: 6,600 (double bottom / fib confluence)
Resistance: 6,670–6,700 (prior high & channel midline)
Upside target: 6,900 (channel top / point D projection)
As long as 6,600 holds, the path of least resistance favors a move toward 6,900. A decisive break below 6,600, however, would signal weakness and open the door to deeper downside.
SPX500USD could go up againHi traders,
Last week I said we could see a little more upside and a bigger correction down for (orange) wave 4 for SPX500USD. And this is exactly what happened.
So next week we could see more upside again to make a new ATH.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a small pullback down and a change in orderflow to bullish on a lower timeframe to trade longs.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Elliott wavecount and patterns, then please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
US500: 7K ASSAULT BEGINS! Mega Bull Flag Breakout 🚀 US500: 7K ASSAULT BEGINS! Mega Bull Flag Breakout 📊
Current Price: 6,646.2 | Date: Sept 27, 2025 ⏰
📈 INTRADAY TRADING SETUPS (Next 5 Days)
🎯 BULLISH SCENARIO
Entry Zone: 6,630 - 6,650 📍
Stop Loss: 6,590 🛑
Target 1: 6,720 🎯
Target 2: 6,780 🚀
🎯 BEARISH SCENARIO
Entry Zone: 6,670 - 6,690 📍
Stop Loss: 6,720 🛑
Target 1: 6,580 🎯
Target 2: 6,520 📉
🔍 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BREAKDOWN
📊 KEY INDICATORS STATUS:
RSI (14): 61.2 ⚡ *Bullish Momentum Building*
Bollinger Bands: Coiling for Expansion 🔥
VWAP: 6,635 - Acting as Launch Pad 💪
EMA 50: 6,610 ✅ *Golden Cross Confirmed*
Volume: Institutional Accumulation 📊
🌊 WAVE ANALYSIS:
Elliott Wave: Wave 4 Triangle Complete 🌊
Target: Wave 5 Extension to 7,000+ 🎯
🔄 HARMONIC PATTERNS:
Bullish Butterfly at 6,600 Support ✨
ABCD Pattern targeting 6,780 🔄
⚖️ SWING TRADING OUTLOOK (1-4 Weeks)
🚀 BULLISH TARGETS:
Psychological: 7,000 🏆
Monthly Target: 6,850 🌙
Gann Resistance: 6,900 ⭐
📉 BEARISH INVALIDATION:
Weekly Support: 6,550 ⚠️
Critical Level: 6,480 🚨
🎭 MARKET STRUCTURE:
Trend: Ascending Triangle 💪
Momentum: Coiling Energy 🔥
Wyckoff Phase: Spring Loading 📈
Ichimoku: Bullish Cloud Break 🟢
🏆 MEGA PATTERN ALERT:
Bull Flag Pole: 6,400 → 6,700 📏
Flag Consolidation: 6,600-6,680 🚩
Breakout Target: 6,980 (300pt move!) 💥
⚡ RISK MANAGEMENT:
Max Risk per Trade: 1.5% 🛡️
R:R Ratio: Minimum 1:2.5 ⚖️
Breakout Confirmation: 6,690 close 📏
🌍 MARKET CATALYSTS:
Q3 Earnings Beating Expectations 📈
Fed Dovish Stance Supporting Risk-On 🏛️
Economic Resilience Narrative Strong 💼
🔥 KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
Breakout Zone: 6,680-6,700 💥
Support Cluster: 6,620 | 6,580 | 6,550 🛡️
Resistance: 6,720 | 6,780 | 6,850 🚧
🎯 FINAL VERDICT:
S&P500 primed for EXPLOSIVE 7K RALLY! 🚀
Bull flag completion = 300+ point surge! 💯
Multiple timeframes align perfectly! 📈
Trade Management: Scale into dips above 6,620 💎
Breakout Alert: Watch 6,690 decisive close! 🔔
---
*⚠️ Disclaimer: High-risk trading. Use strict risk management. Educational analysis only.*
For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade)
I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors.
Sincerely,
Shunya.Trade
Website: shunya dot trade
🔔 Follow for 7K Journey Updates | 💬 What's Your 7K Timeline?
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 26, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the aforementioned week's trading session, the S&P 500 Index experienced a notable decline after reversing near the Inner Index Rally level of 6704, which resulted in a vigorous drop to our designated Mean Support target of 6585. The index is currently moving towards the established Key Resistance target of 6693 and is positioned to fully complete the Inner Index Rally at 6704, presenting the potential for additional upward momentum that could extend to the Outer Index Rally level of 6768.
It is imperative to recognize, however, that upon reaching the Key Resistance target of 6693 and the Inner Index Rally at 6704 targets, we may observe a retest pullback toward the Mean Support level of 6585, with the possibility of a further decline extending to the Mean Support target at 6485.
SP500 4H🔹 Overall Outlook and Potential Price Movements
In the charts above, we have outlined the overall outlook and possible price movement paths.
As shown, each analysis highlights a key support or resistance zone near the current market price. The market’s reaction to these zones — whether a breakout or rejection — will likely determine the next direction of the price toward the specified levels.
⚠️ Important Note:
The purpose of these trading perspectives is to identify key upcoming price levels and assess potential market reactions. The provided analyses are not trading signals in any way.
✅ Recommendation for Use:
To make effective use of these analyses, it is advised to manually draw the marked zones on your chart. Then, on the 15-minute time frame, monitor the candlestick behavior and look for valid entry triggers before making any trading decisions.
US500 Post PCE OutlookThe short term outlook for the US 500 remains constructively bullish, with a bias towards further upside. The primary factor supporting this view is the recent in line Core PCE data 2.9% YoY, which matched expectations. This result has successfully alleviated fears of a more aggressive US Fed tightening path. The market interprets this steady inflation reading as giving the Fed "room to be patient" with future rate adjustments, thereby sustaining appetite for equities which are seen as risk assets. While the path forward may be choppy with volatility contained around current levels the overall momentum is positive and measured. Critical upcoming catalysts that could drive the next major move include future inflation prints, jobs data, and the start of the Q3 earnings season.
Fundamental Analysis
The market's resilience is built upon several key fundamental pillars:
Inflation Stability: The August Core PCE Index meeting expectations is the most significant fundamental driver, reducing the immediate risk of a growth stifling, aggressive Fed policy shift.
Corporate Strength: Underlying support continues to come from robust corporate earnings and sustained strong consumer spending. These elements suggest that the corporate sector can maintain profit growth even in the current economic environment.
Fed Clarity: Clear communication from the Fed regarding its path has reduced policy uncertainty, which generally supports higher equity valuations.
Sector Dynamics: There is evidence of defensive flows and sector rotation, indicating that investors are positioning for sustained but selective growth within the US economy, favoring both large caps and defensives in a measured approach.
Technical Analysis
The technical picture supports a consolidation phase near record highs, with momentum favoring a potential future breakout:
Resistance: The first resistance zone is identified between 6,675 and 6,700. A decisive, sustained break above this level would signal the next major rally attempt.
Support: Immediate support lies in the 6,605 - 6,570 zone. Maintaining price action above this band is crucial for keeping the constructive, short-term bullish trend intact.
Volatility: Volatility remains contained, reflecting the market's stability and lack of panic following the inflation data. Monitor technical indicators for overbought signals that might precede a pause or consolidation, but the sentiment remains constructive as long as key macroeconomic data remains steady.
Analysis by Terence Hove, Senior Financial Market Strategist at Exness
S&P500 CHART UPDATE !!S&P 500 Analysis
The S&P 500 is trading near 6,650, moving strongly within its ascending channel.
Support: 6,400 – key level to hold for bullish momentum.
Resistance: 6,800 – a breakout could open the door toward 7,200.
The trend remains bullish, and staying above the midline keeps upside potential intact.
A breakdown below 6,400 may signal a short-term correction.
Famous Forex Traders and Their Journeys1. George Soros: The Man Who Broke the Bank of England
George Soros, born in 1930 in Budapest, Hungary, is arguably the most famous forex trader of all time. His journey from a refugee escaping Nazi-occupied Hungary to a billionaire financier is a story of resilience, intelligence, and audacious trading. Soros studied at the London School of Economics under the tutelage of philosopher Karl Popper, whose concept of “reflexivity” would later underpin much of Soros’ trading strategy.
Soros’ approach to forex trading was revolutionary. He believed markets are not always rational, and that human behavior could create trends and anomalies that could be exploited. This philosophy reached its pinnacle on September 16, 1992, known as Black Wednesday, when Soros famously “broke the Bank of England.” Anticipating that the British pound was overvalued and that the UK government would not be able to maintain its currency within the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, Soros shorted $10 billion worth of pounds. When the pound crashed, he reportedly made over $1 billion in profit in a single day.
Soros’ journey teaches traders the power of conviction and risk management. His success was not a product of luck; it was the result of meticulous analysis, understanding macroeconomic fundamentals, and having the courage to act decisively against prevailing market sentiment.
2. Stanley Druckenmiller: The Strategist Behind Soros
Stanley Druckenmiller, often described as one of the greatest traders of the 20th century, was Soros’ right-hand man during the Black Wednesday trade. Born in Pittsburgh in 1953, Druckenmiller’ journey into finance began with studying English and economics before diving into the world of investments.
Druckenmiller’ trading style emphasizes trend-following combined with macroeconomic insights. He often stresses that understanding the “big picture” — interest rates, fiscal policies, and global economic cycles — is key to successful trading. During his tenure at Quantum Fund, he achieved phenomenal returns, often averaging 30% annual returns over decades, a feat almost unheard of in any financial market.
What distinguishes Druckenmiller is his disciplined risk management. He believed in cutting losses quickly and letting winners run — a principle that resonates deeply with forex traders. His journey demonstrates that even within the high-risk world of forex, strategic planning and emotional discipline are essential.
3. Bill Lipschutz: The Currency King
Bill Lipschutz, born in 1956 in New York, is a name synonymous with currency trading. Unlike Soros or Druckenmiller, Lipschutz’ entry into trading was accidental. While studying at Cornell University, he inherited a modest sum and began trading stocks. However, after a significant loss early in his career, he realized that understanding the market psychology was as important as understanding the numbers.
Lipschutz transitioned to forex trading in the 1980s at Salomon Brothers, where he earned the nickname “The Sultan of Currencies.” His approach revolved around market sentiment and positioning, rather than purely technical or fundamental analysis. He emphasized that traders must understand not just the currency, but the forces driving central banks, governments, and large institutional players.
One of his key insights was the importance of risk perception versus actual risk. By controlling his exposure and understanding when markets overreacted, Lipschutz was able to generate consistent profits, making him one of the most respected forex traders globally. His journey illustrates that resilience after setbacks and continuous learning are vital for long-term success.
4. Andrew Krieger: The Aggressive Risk Taker
Andrew Krieger, born in 1956 in New Zealand, gained fame in the late 1980s for his aggressive and highly leveraged forex trades. Krieger worked at Bankers Trust, where he became notorious for his bold positions, particularly his massive short on the New Zealand dollar, known as the “Kiwi.”
In 1987, Krieger identified that the New Zealand dollar was overvalued relative to the U.S. dollar. Exploiting leverage far beyond the bank’s capital, he took positions worth hundreds of millions of dollars, which led to enormous profits when the currency depreciated. His ability to analyze macro trends and exploit market inefficiencies allowed him to achieve results that many considered impossible.
Krieger’s story is both inspirational and cautionary. While it demonstrates the potential of forex trading to generate huge profits, it also underscores the immense risks of leverage. Modern traders can learn from his audacity but must balance it with strict risk controls.
5. Paul Tudor Jones: The Master of Macro
Paul Tudor Jones, born in 1954 in Memphis, Tennessee, is renowned for his macro trading expertise, including currency markets. His career began after graduating from the University of Virginia, when he launched his own trading firm, Tudor Investment Corporation, in 1980.
Jones’ fame skyrocketed when he correctly predicted and profited from the 1987 stock market crash. While primarily an equity trader, Jones’ strategies often involve currencies, particularly in the context of macroeconomic shifts. His trading philosophy blends technical analysis, historical patterns, and market psychology, emphasizing flexibility and adaptability.
He is a strong advocate of risk management, famously stating, “The most important rule of trading is to play great defense, not great offense.” This principle applies directly to forex, where volatility can be extreme, and losses can compound quickly. Jones’ journey highlights the need to combine strategy with discipline to thrive in global markets.
6. Richard Dennis and the Turtle Traders
Richard Dennis, born in 1949 in Chicago, was a commodities and forex trader famous for the “Turtle Traders” experiment. Dennis believed that trading could be taught systematically and sought to prove this by training novices in his rules-based approach.
The Turtle Traders, under Dennis’ guidance, followed strict mechanical systems to trade currencies and commodities. The results were extraordinary: many of his students went on to become successful traders, demonstrating that disciplined, rules-based trading could outperform intuition alone.
Dennis’ legacy emphasizes that forex success is not only about intelligence but about discipline, rules, and psychological resilience. His journey underscores the importance of methodology and consistency in trading.
7. Kathy Lien: The Modern Forex Strategist
Kathy Lien, born in 1978 in New York, represents a modern generation of forex traders. With a PhD in international economics, Lien has leveraged her academic background to become a leading currency strategist and author.
Lien’ career spans trading at major banks such as JP Morgan and FXCM, where she honed her skills in both fundamental and technical analysis. She is renowned for translating complex market data into actionable trading strategies, particularly for retail traders.
Her philosophy focuses on risk-adjusted trading, macroeconomic insights, and disciplined execution. Lien also emphasizes the importance of continual learning and adapting to market changes — crucial in today’s fast-evolving forex landscape. Her journey inspires traders, especially women, to pursue excellence in a male-dominated field.
8. Lessons from Famous Forex Traders
Examining the journeys of these iconic traders reveals common threads that aspiring forex traders can emulate:
Risk Management is Paramount: Every successful trader prioritizes controlling losses over chasing profits.
Market Psychology Matters: Understanding human behavior in markets is as critical as analyzing charts or economic indicators.
Adaptability and Flexibility: Markets change, and strategies must evolve.
Discipline Over Intuition: Mechanical systems, rules, and structured approaches often outperform gut feelings.
Continuous Learning: Even legendary traders constantly refine their methods and knowledge.
Boldness Balanced with Strategy: High conviction trades yield high rewards, but reckless risk-taking can be catastrophic.
9. Conclusion
The journeys of famous forex traders illustrate that success in the currency markets is a blend of intellect, discipline, risk management, and psychological resilience. From Soros’ historic pound short to Lien’s modern strategies, each trader exemplifies unique paths and philosophies. Their stories serve as both inspiration and practical guidance for anyone seeking to navigate the complexities of the forex market.
Forex trading is not merely a pursuit of wealth; it is a test of strategy, patience, and mental fortitude. By studying the journeys of these iconic figures, traders can learn that success is rarely accidental — it is crafted through rigorous analysis, unwavering discipline, and a willingness to learn from every win and loss.
Currency as a Tool of Power1. Historical Roots: Currency as Sovereignty
Currency has always carried political symbolism. Ancient kingdoms used coins not only as units of trade but also as markers of authority. The image of a ruler on a coin reinforced legitimacy and sovereignty. The Roman denarius, stamped with the Emperor’s profile, became a sign of imperial unity across vast territories.
The Chinese dynasties pioneered paper currency as early as the Tang and Song periods. This innovation extended state power by standardizing economic exchange across provinces. Similarly, medieval Europe saw kingdoms fight wars not just with armies but also by debasement of coinage—reducing precious metal content to finance conflicts while eroding rivals’ trust.
Thus, from the beginning, currency was about more than economics—it was about political stability and dominance. Control over minting and distribution meant control over trade routes, taxation, and governance.
2. Currency and Empire: Financial Foundations of Power
Empires rose and fell on their ability to control currency. During the Age of Exploration, Spain and Portugal amassed silver and gold from the New World, fueling European dominance. Yet, overreliance on bullion caused inflation (the so-called “Price Revolution”) and weakened Spanish hegemony.
By contrast, the British Empire leveraged financial sophistication. London’s banking system, supported by the pound sterling, became the backbone of international trade in the 19th century. The empire’s naval dominance was matched by financial dominance: colonies used sterling, and global contracts were denominated in British currency.
This marked the evolution of a reserve currency system, where the strength of a currency allowed an empire to project influence far beyond its borders.
3. The U.S. Dollar: Modern Currency Hegemony
After World War II, the Bretton Woods Agreement (1944) established the U.S. dollar as the anchor of the global financial system. Currencies were pegged to the dollar, which itself was backed by gold at $35/ounce. Even after the U.S. abandoned the gold standard in 1971, the dollar retained its dominance due to trust in American financial markets, political stability, and military power.
The dollar became not just a currency but a global standard:
Trade Dominance: Most international commodities—oil, gas, metals—are priced in dollars (“petrodollar” system).
Financial Institutions: IMF and World Bank largely operate on dollar reserves.
Investment Flows: Global investors see U.S. Treasury bonds as the safest assets.
This dominance gave the U.S. extraordinary power: it could print currency to fund deficits, influence global liquidity, and impose sanctions by restricting dollar-based transactions.
4. Currency as Economic Weapon: Sanctions and Restrictions
Currency can be directly weaponized. In modern geopolitics, restricting access to currency flows is as potent as military intervention.
SWIFT System Control: The U.S. and EU can cut off nations from the international payment network, crippling trade.
Iran Example: When sanctions limited Iran’s access to the dollar system, its economy shrank drastically despite having vast oil reserves.
Russia (2022): Western nations froze Russia’s foreign exchange reserves and limited its ability to transact in dollars/euros, undermining financial stability.
Currency control enables “bloodless warfare”—crippling economies without direct conflict. It demonstrates how financial architecture is as much a battlefield as physical territory.
5. Currency and Global Trade Imbalances
A strong or weak currency shapes trade flows, giving nations leverage:
China’s Strategy: By managing the yuan’s exchange rate, China boosts exports while building vast dollar reserves.
U.S. Deficit Power: The U.S. can sustain trade deficits because its currency is the world’s reserve, allowing it to pay for imports with paper rather than real goods.
Currency Wars: Countries engage in competitive devaluations to make exports cheaper, leading to tensions and instability.
Thus, exchange rates are not just technical matters but instruments of industrial strategy and geopolitical rivalry.
6. Reserve Currencies and Trust as Power
For a currency to wield global power, it must be trusted. Trust depends on:
Economic Stability: Strong GDP, low inflation, predictable policies.
Financial Markets: Deep, liquid markets that allow global investors to park capital.
Military Backing: The ability to enforce international order.
The euro, launched in 1999, was designed to rival the dollar, but its influence remains limited due to political fragmentation. The Japanese yen and British pound play regional roles but lack global dominance.
China’s yuan (renminbi) is increasingly used in trade, especially with developing nations, but strict capital controls limit its reach. Still, initiatives like the Belt and Road and the creation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) suggest Beijing’s intent to expand yuan influence.
7. Currency as Cultural and Psychological Power
Currency also carries symbolic weight. People worldwide recognize the U.S. dollar as a store of value, often hoarding it in unstable economies (e.g., Argentina, Zimbabwe). In such cases, the dollar acts as an alternative government, providing psychological stability when local systems fail.
Tourists, businesses, and migrants all rely on dominant currencies, reinforcing their prestige and soft power. A strong, trusted currency enhances national identity and global appeal.
8. Digital Currencies: The New Frontier of Power
The 21st century has introduced a new battlefield: digital and decentralized currencies.
Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin challenge state monopoly over money. They are borderless, resistant to censorship, and appealing in nations with weak currencies. However, volatility limits their mainstream role.
Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) represent the state’s countermeasure. China’s digital yuan is the most advanced, aiming to bypass the dollar system and enhance domestic surveillance.
U.S. and EU are exploring CBDCs cautiously, aware that digital currency could reshape financial flows, privacy, and power distribution.
If widely adopted, digital currencies could redefine currency as a tool of power, shifting influence from states to either tech platforms or transnational coalitions.
9. Currency and the Future Multipolar World
The 20th century was marked by unipolar dominance of the U.S. dollar. The 21st may become more multipolar, with multiple reserve currencies coexisting: dollar, euro, yuan, and possibly digital currencies.
Key trends shaping the future:
De-dollarization: Countries like Russia, China, and Middle Eastern powers are reducing reliance on the dollar.
Commodity-Backed Trade: Proposals for oil or gold-backed trade currencies.
Regional Blocs: African and Latin American nations considering shared currencies to reduce dependency.
Technological Shifts: Blockchain, digital wallets, and cross-border payment systems eroding U.S. control.
In this scenario, currency will continue to be a battlefield for influence, independence, and survival.
10. Ethical and Social Dimensions of Currency Power
Currency dominance is not neutral—it comes with consequences:
Dependency: Developing nations tied to foreign currencies lose policy autonomy.
Inequality: Global south often pays the price of financial crises originating in the global north.
Exploitation: Control over currency systems allows powerful nations to extract value from weaker economies.
Thus, the debate around currency power is also a debate about justice, sovereignty, and fairness in global finance.
Conclusion: The Eternal Struggle for Monetary Power
Currency is more than money—it is a weapon, a shield, and a stage for power struggles. From the Roman denarius to the British pound, from the U.S. dollar to the digital yuan, nations have used currency to expand influence, enforce dominance, and reshape the world order.
In the future, battles over currency will not only determine economic prosperity but also geopolitical survival. Whoever controls the dominant currency controls the rules of global trade, investment, and even war.
The story of currency as a tool of power is not over. It is evolving—toward a world where trust, technology, and multipolar rivalry will decide whose money rules the global stage.
S&P 500 Wave Analysis – 26 September 2025
- &P 500 index reversed from support level 6600.00
- Likely to rise to resistance level 6700.00
S&P 500 index recently reversed up from the key support level 6600.00 (which also reversed the index in the middle of September) coinciding with the 20-day moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from last month.
The upward reversal from the support level 6600.00 continues the active short-term impulse wave 3 of the intermediate impulse wave (5) from the start of August.
Given the strong daily uptrend, S&P 500 index can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 6700.00 (which reversed the price earlier this month).
S&P 500 needs a correctionLooking at the volume, we see that the price is rising but the volume is declining in line with it. This indicates a high probability of a correction, in my view. Short the S&P 500 to 6146, where I expect at least an attempt to form a new bottom. Let the bears do their thing; an update will follow.
⚠️ Not financial advice.
Post PCE thoughts.PCE data in line with expectations, personal income and spending slightly up, all in all, when I saw the data, I felt it would potentially be good for the S&P and also the USD. But both the S&P and the USD are nonplussed.
The GBP has positive momentum, but it's not something I can hang my hat on while the rest of the currencies are behaving incoherently. All in all, i'd like to place a risk on trade, but I don't have conviction in the direction of the currencies over the next few hours.
Which means I'll close the book on a week of only trade, which stopped out. Mildly disappointing but I look forward to the new week.
Weekly Review and currency overview to follow. Wishing you a lovely weekend.