THE NEXT MOVE WILL BE PARABOLIC! CRYPTO GOING TO FOLLOW!We are in a bubble phase, the next move will be big until start of Q2 2026.
Trade ideas
S&P500 Found the Support it needed for 6800.The S&P500 index (SPX) gave us an excellent bottom buy signal last week (September 30, see chart below), rebounding straight after and quickly hitting our 6720 Target:
This time we focus on a much shorter term Channel Up pattern that has emerged, which has just given us another buy signal as it is currently bouncing on its 1H MA50 (blue trend-line).
As long as the 1H MA100 (green trend-line) holds and the 1H RSI breaks above its Lower Highs trend-line, we expect the index to seek a new Higher High on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at 6800.
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Today Fundamental Analysis Confirmed my Technical AnalysisSee my previous post where I stated that we were getting rejected the triple top was confirming the market was rolling over at least in the short term. Today Trump stating that China was becoming openly hostile caused a sell off. But the tape was telling the tale before it happened.
Is this real or not? SP500 and VIXA quick overview. SPY now under it's 18ma. Vix breaking out and holding above 18 dollars is an ominous sign. High Yield continues to fall. Gold probably makes another high.
SPX500USD 4H – Bullish Continuation SetupThe market continues to maintain an upward structure, with price consolidating just below the 6,770.00 resistance area. This zone remains key for buyers looking to confirm a continuation toward the next target at 6,830.74.
Support at: 6,700.00 /6,647.95/6,585.00 🔽
Resistance at: 6,770.00 / 6,830.74 🔼
🔎 Bias:
🔼 Bullish: A strong 4H close above 6,770.00 would likely extend the bullish move toward 6,830.74, continuing the broader uptrend.
🔽 Bearish: Rejection from 6,770.00 and a break below 6,700.00 could lead to a pullback around 6,647.95 and even a deeper pullback toward 6,585.00.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
SPX500 – Futures Rebound Amid Shutdown Uncertainty and AI RepricSPX500 – Overview | Futures Rebound After Market Pullback
U.S. stock futures edged higher on Friday after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreated from record highs.
Investors are re-evaluating the AI-driven rally, rate-cut expectations, and the ongoing government shutdown, now entering its ninth day.
The shutdown’s continuation delays key U.S. economic data releases, increasing uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
Technical Outlook
The price tested its support zone and rebounded, but momentum remains mixed.
To confirm renewed bullish strength, SPX500 must break above 6,757, which would open the way toward 6,770 → 6,791.
As long as the price trades below 6,757, short-term bearish pressure may persist toward 6,738 → 6,730.
A confirmed break below 6,730 would extend the correction toward 6,716 and signal further downside potential.
Pivot Line: 6,757
Resistance: 6,770 · 6,791
Support: 6,738 · 6,730 · 6,716
Summary:
SPX500 is consolidating after the pullback, with near-term bias depending on a break of 6,757 or 6,730.
Traders should expect volatility as the shutdown drags on and the market reassesses Fed policy expectations.
SPX500 Tests Highs as AI and Rate-Cut Hopes Support RallySPX500 – Technical Overview
The S&P 500 continues to trade near record highs as AI strength and renewed rate-cut optimism offset lingering concerns from the U.S. government shutdown.
Markets remain supported by expectations of further Fed easing, though volatility may persist around key resistance zones.
Technical Outlook
The index is testing the previous week’s highs around 6,755–6,727.
A 1H close below 6,727 would confirm a short-term bearish correction toward 6,699 → 6,662.
Conversely, a 1H close above 6,755 would reinforce bullish momentum and open the way toward 6,770 → 6,791 → 6,820.
Pivot: 6,755
Resistance: 6,770 – 6,791 – 6,820
Support: 6,727 – 6,716 – 6,699 – 6,662
US500 Remains BullishUS500 is currently near record levels. The index maintains robust overall performance, with monthly and yearly gains standing above +3.00% and +15%, respectively. This strength is fundamentally driven by broad based bullish sentiment, confidence in strong corporate results, and particularly the ongoing technology sector leadership and AI-related dealmaking, which recently propelled the index to new all-time highs.
Fundamental Analysis
The market's optimism is tempered by underlying caution. Persistent inflation in the services sector remains a key concern, fueling expectations that the Federal Reserve may be compelled to keep interest rates higher for longer, a factor that could limit short-term upside momentum. Despite this, the index's current technical posture remains positive.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, the US500 is in a strong upward trend, but the index is showing signs of being overbought after its recent surge. The immediate key support level is noted at 6,570 points. Looking ahead expect the bullish momentum to continue in the medium term, targeting 6,805 as the next potential resistance milestone. Conversely, the index might enter a period of consolidation or retreat, with projections near 6,485 points and a possible longer-term below 6,000.
SPX500 Analysis SPX500 Analysis 📈
On the daily timeframe, SPX500 has broken the previous Higher High (6698.9), creating a new Break of Structure (BOS).
On the 4H chart, price is currently making a bearish retracement — I expect it could pull back into the demand zone between 6698.9 and 6691.4.
I’m waiting for confirmation to go long from that area,
with a target at the upper supply zone between 6751.8 and 6746.9
US500 SELL?Market has been bullish for a long time, and there seems to be a possible reversal on daily.
Based on 4HR TF, the market seems to be forming a possible reversal pattern which could lead to a possible reversal.
We could see SELLERS coming in strong should the current level hold.
Disclaimer:
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is solely intended for educational and informational purposes only.The analysis provided is based on my own view of the market. Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account.
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SP500 7400!!!We are at a time when stocks and risk assets are on the rise, we have a target not far from the SP 500 at around 7400
This is in an important resistance zone where it can have a pullback to break through or make a single leg in search of Bullran's macro target.
If it does a Pullback retest, we have a good zone of interest below to enter. This week we will have Payroll and it can dictate the pace of some assets. Let's keep an eye on these scenarios.
SPX500 ShortElite Analysis
Discretionary trade, (80% of Confirmations met)
Targeting lower liquidity pools
SPX to 6,860$ before bears take full charge of market!and then down to 4,817$ we go.....
The new ATH stated in the title should be met this week after waiting for weeks and months for this after projecting it.
I am a man of few words.....
SPX500 Tapped OutWith #SPX500 being at an all time high and the US government still being shut down I believe SPX500 is showing bearish signals on 2 hr time frame 1 hr time frame. Short advised: TP1 TP2 TP3 before hitting major support @6700
Applovin Craters...Is Robinhood next? APP fell sharply intraday today after announcement came late into the session about an SEC probe into the company.
The SEC loves to do this with new S&P500 stocks.
Applovin was one of the strongest stocks in the market recently and its finally been knocked back down to earth.
You have to wonder if HOOD will be the next SEC probe.
Robinhoods controversial NFL prediction markets could a big controversy.
Inflation 2022 trendline now is the keyAs you can see this trendline is acting as a major resistance. Once Spx break it out it is highly probable that that trendline turns into a support.
Spx will test is and if it holds we can see 7000/7050 pips by the end of November 2025. That is a 4% gain.
I would like to highligh that because the liquidity in the system is so high is very probable to see this happen... and yes... this is only the beginning because then at 7000 pips there is a Fib ring which could provide us the real progression of the Sp500
SPX: jobs delayed, but not the optimismThe key development in the U.S. last week was the federal government shutdown on October 1st, triggered by Congress’s failure to pass a funding bill. Markets had only a mild reaction to the news, and continued to be focused on broader economic development. Still, jobs data which were set for a release during the week, were not posted, due to the “shutdown”. Regardless, posted JOLTs Job Openings in august of 7,227M were slightly better from forecasted 7,2M expected by the market, which pushed the market optimism toward the increased expectations that the Fed might cut interest rates again this year. The S&P 500 marked another winning week, with a new all time highest level this year at 6.746.
Tech companies continue to be in focus of market attention. Nvidia and other AI-adjacent firms continued to lead the rally, pushing the S&P 500 to fresh highs. Fair Isaac jumped around 18% after unveiling a plan to let lenders access its credit scores directly, hurting traditional credit bureaus like Equifax and TransUnion. On the opposite side was Palantir, which dropped by around 7,5% following security concerns in the U.S. Army memo.
Investors perceive currently a mixed private-sector jobs data for September, as weak enough to support the Fed's decision to cut interest rates further at their forthcoming meeting as of the end of October. Based on these expectations, the S&P 500 might be further supported for new highs, as per investors sentiment.
SPX 500 ShortElite analysis
Confirmation have not been met
I am waiting for full confirmations to execute
Volatility ahead for S&P500The S&P500 index is positioned above the upper line of the Bollinger Bands (20) indicator, showing weakening momentum. Market breadth is slowly decreasing, as the tech sector has got under pressure on Friday. That might be a normal sector rotation mechanism within a bullish market, or a precursor of a wider correction.
Anyways, the bullish trend might persist, but upside breakouts might be vulnerable to profit taking and corrections as the upside rally reaches the plateau.
Don't forget - this is just the idea, always do your own research and never forget to manage your risk!
SPX - Bearish ScenarioContinuous three point touches along a down trend line can be seen in red
Right now price may experience this third touch on its current down trend in red.
From there I think it collapse may follow down to levels in 02 and 08 or a bit above them. (price could recover at the red line along the timeframe when covid was occurring.)
Not sure when it will occur but its going to.
Weekly timeframe
SPX500 H1 | Bullish Bounce from Key SupportBased on the H1 chart analysis, we could see the price fall to the buy entry, which is 6,732.79, which is a pullback support and oculd bounce from this levle to the upside.
Stop loss is at 6,719.64, which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 6,697.83, which is a pullback support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 6,762.34, which aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and the 100% Fibonacci projection.
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SPX × US10Y: A Signal for Market Tops and Economic Shifts1. Combining Equity Levels and Yield Sensitivity
SPX (S&P 500) reflects equity market strength and investor sentiment. When SPX is rising, it typically indicates optimism or strong earnings growth expectations.
US10Y (10-year Treasury yield) reflects the cost of capital and inflation expectations. Rising yields can signify tightening financial conditions or economic overheating.
When you multiply these two metrics, the product magnifies the impact of simultaneous market exuberance (high SPX) and rising yields (high US10Y). A very high SPX × US10Y value could indicate a market environment where valuations are stretched, and higher yields are increasing the cost of capital—often a precursor to market corrections.
2. Historical Patterns
In prior market tops, both equity valuations (SPX) and yields (US10Y) often peak together before significant corrections:
Dot-Com Bubble (2000): SPX was highly elevated, and rising yields signaled an end to loose monetary conditions.
2007-2008 Financial Crisis: SPX was at record highs, and US10Y yields were climbing, reflecting tighter monetary policy.
2021-2022 Post-Pandemic: SPX hit record highs, and yields started to rise sharply as inflation surged, leading to a market correction.
The SPX × US10Y value tends to peak during these moments, providing a warning signal of market excess.
If you are using the SPX × US10Y (multiplication) instead of division, it can still serve as a market indicator, though the mechanics are slightly different. Here’s why the product of the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield (SPX × US10Y) might be relevant for predicting market tops:
3. Economic Logic Behind the Indicator
A. Reflects Cost of Capital
Rising US10Y yields increase the discount rate used to value stocks. High SPX × US10Y suggests equities are vulnerable to revaluation if yields continue to rise.
B. Overheating Economy
High SPX × US10Y often coincides with an overheating economy, where inflation pressures push yields higher, while equities are driven by optimism. This imbalance can quickly reverse if monetary tightening occurs.
C. Peak Growth Phase
A peak in the SPX × US10Y value might signal the economy is at the late stage of the business cycle, where growth slows, and equities face headwinds.
4. Why It May Predict Market Tops
Valuation Excess: A high SPX × US10Y product reflects elevated valuations combined with tightening financial conditions.
Transition to Risk-Off Environment: Rising yields make bonds more attractive relative to stocks, potentially triggering equity outflows.
Fed Policy Influence: If yields are rising due to Federal Reserve tightening, equity markets often react negatively as borrowing costs rise and liquidity is withdrawn.
