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S&P500 fresh all time highUS equities regained momentum yesterday, with the S&P 500 up 0.58% to a fresh all-time high as investors shrugged off political uncertainty and the ongoing government shutdown. The broader risk-on tone was supported by strong global sentiment, easing bond yields, and renewed optimism across multiple asset classes. Key drivers: Political backdrop: Despite the US shutdown and political noise in France, markets focused on stability signals — notably President Macron’s decision to delay a snap election by pledging a new prime minister. Global rally: Equities, bonds, oil, and gold all moved higher, reflecting a broad-based risk appetite. Gold hit a record $4,042/oz, suggesting some defensive hedging alongside equity strength. AI momentum: The AI investment boom continued to fuel tech optimism, with Nvidia-backed startup N8n raising $180m at a $2.5bn valuation, underscoring ongoing enthusiasm around AI-linked growth. Macro & policy: Investors largely looked past Washington gridlock, though air traffic disruptions and debate over furloughed workers’ pay added to the shutdown narrative. Market tone: Sentiment remains constructive for the S&P 500, with investors betting on resilient corporate earnings and continued AI-driven growth. However, elevated valuations and political uncertainty may temper further near-term upside. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 6768 Resistance Level 2: 7800 Resistance Level 3: 6820 Support Level 1: 6695 Support Level 2: 6672 Support Level 3: 6642 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
SPX × US10Y: A Signal for Market Tops and Economic Shifts1. Combining Equity Levels and Yield Sensitivity SPX (S&P 500) reflects equity market strength and investor sentiment. When SPX is rising, it typically indicates optimism or strong earnings growth expectations. US10Y (10-year Treasury yield) reflects the cost of capital and inflation expectations. Rising yields can signify tightening financial conditions or economic overheating. When you multiply these two metrics, the product magnifies the impact of simultaneous market exuberance (high SPX) and rising yields (high US10Y). A very high SPX × US10Y value could indicate a market environment where valuations are stretched, and higher yields are increasing the cost of capital—often a precursor to market corrections. 2. Historical Patterns In prior market tops, both equity valuations (SPX) and yields (US10Y) often peak together before significant corrections: Dot-Com Bubble (2000): SPX was highly elevated, and rising yields signaled an end to loose monetary conditions. 2007-2008 Financial Crisis: SPX was at record highs, and US10Y yields were climbing, reflecting tighter monetary policy. 2021-2022 Post-Pandemic: SPX hit record highs, and yields started to rise sharply as inflation surged, leading to a market correction. The SPX × US10Y value tends to peak during these moments, providing a warning signal of market excess. If you are using the SPX × US10Y (multiplication) instead of division, it can still serve as a market indicator, though the mechanics are slightly different. Here’s why the product of the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield (SPX × US10Y) might be relevant for predicting market tops: 3. Economic Logic Behind the Indicator A. Reflects Cost of Capital Rising US10Y yields increase the discount rate used to value stocks. High SPX × US10Y suggests equities are vulnerable to revaluation if yields continue to rise. B. Overheating Economy High SPX × US10Y often coincides with an overheating economy, where inflation pressures push yields higher, while equities are driven by optimism. This imbalance can quickly reverse if monetary tightening occurs. C. Peak Growth Phase A peak in the SPX × US10Y value might signal the economy is at the late stage of the business cycle, where growth slows, and equities face headwinds. 4. Why It May Predict Market Tops Valuation Excess: A high SPX × US10Y product reflects elevated valuations combined with tightening financial conditions. Transition to Risk-Off Environment: Rising yields make bonds more attractive relative to stocks, potentially triggering equity outflows. Fed Policy Influence: If yields are rising due to Federal Reserve tightening, equity markets often react negatively as borrowing costs rise and liquidity is withdrawn.
SP:SPX
by ILuminosity
US500 Remains BullishUS500 is currently near record levels. The index maintains robust overall performance, with monthly and yearly gains standing above +3.00% and +15%, respectively. This strength is fundamentally driven by broad based bullish sentiment, confidence in strong corporate results, and particularly the ongoing technology sector leadership and AI-related dealmaking, which recently propelled the index to new all-time highs. Fundamental Analysis The market's optimism is tempered by underlying caution. Persistent inflation in the services sector remains a key concern, fueling expectations that the Federal Reserve may be compelled to keep interest rates higher for longer, a factor that could limit short-term upside momentum. Despite this, the index's current technical posture remains positive. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, the US500 is in a strong upward trend, but the index is showing signs of being overbought after its recent surge. The immediate key support level is noted at 6,570 points. Looking ahead expect the bullish momentum to continue in the medium term, targeting 6,805 as the next potential resistance milestone. Conversely, the index might enter a period of consolidation or retreat, with projections near 6,485 points and a possible longer-term below 6,000.
SP:SPXLong
by WiseLeoTrading
Volatility ahead for S&P500The S&P500 index is positioned above the upper line of the Bollinger Bands (20) indicator, showing weakening momentum. Market breadth is slowly decreasing, as the tech sector has got under pressure on Friday. That might be a normal sector rotation mechanism within a bullish market, or a precursor of a wider correction. Anyways, the bullish trend might persist, but upside breakouts might be vulnerable to profit taking and corrections as the upside rally reaches the plateau. Don't forget - this is just the idea, always do your own research and never forget to manage your risk!
CAPITALCOM:US500
by Stanislav_Bernukhov_Exness
Fundamental Analysis S&P500 NEOWavehere’s a short economic analysis of the U.S. economy in English: 🇺🇸 U.S. Economic Analysis (2025) The U.S. economy remains resilient in 2025, supported by strong consumer spending, a stable labor market, and easing inflation. GDP growth is expected to hover around 1.8–2.0%, indicating moderate expansion after a period of tight monetary policy. The Federal Reserve has begun gradual rate cuts, aiming to sustain growth while keeping inflation near its 2% target. Corporate earnings are steady, but high valuations and policy uncertainty present risks. Overall, the outlook is cautiously optimistic, with solid fundamentals but potential headwinds from global trade tensions and fiscal pressures.
SP:SPX
by ITManager_US
S&P 500 (US500) holds near records high on AI/Fed-cut betsS&P 500 holds near records on AI/Fed-cut bets Technical analysis 1. US500 has been forming series of higher swings, and the bullish EMAs signal firm upside momentum. Intraday pullbacks are viewed as short-term dips. 2. If US500 breaks above the 6740 resistance, the index could extend to 6770. 3. However, if US500 pulls back and breaks below the 6720 support, a deeper consolidation toward 6700, previously a resistance, may follow. Fundamental analysis 4. S&P 500 edged up and hovered near record highs, supported by optimism around AI and expectations of additional Fed rate cuts, even as the US government shutdown drags on and delays the release of employment data. 5. Analysts see the market impact of the shutdown as limited compared with the larger risk from a weakening labor market—evident in the mixed labor data (fewer Challenger layoffs but a weaker ADP report), which reinforces that view. 6. With NFP likely to be delayed, investors are focusing on the September ISM services index, which is expected to ease to 51.8 from 52.0. 7. Analysts expect the S&P 500 to remain bullish this week, driven by strong earnings, seasonal trends, and positive technicals. While macro news could cause volatility, the overall trend points upward. Analysis by: Krisada Yoonaisil, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by KrisadaYoonaisil
S&P500 H1 | Bullish Momentum Extending FurtherBased on the H1 chart analysis, we could see the price fall to the buy entry at 6,682.33, which is a pullback support and could bounce from this level to the upside. Stop loss is at 6,651.10, which is a pullback support. Take profit is at 6,731.11, which line sup with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
TRADU:SPX500Long
by Tradu
2
S&P 500 - GRAND MARKET OUTLOOKS&P 500 - GRAND MARKET OUTLOOK BY FIBCOS This analysis integrates multiple layers of market interpretation, combining Elliott Wave Theory across Supercycle , Macro , Micro , and Sub-Micro degrees with Smart Money Concepts (SMC) , price action behavior, and Fibonacci retracements/extensions to project the S&P 500 ’s long-term trajectory. It captures how institutional capital rotates through accumulation and distribution phases, aligned with macroeconomic cycles, policy shifts, and investor sentiment. Each wave is grounded in historical and forward-looking fundamental events—from post-war booms to financial crises to the current AI-driven tech surge. The use of Fibonacci ratios (1.618, 3.618, 5.618) provides mathematical confluence for wave targets, while price structure confirms the ongoing impulsive behavior. Altogether, it creates a cohesive, multi-dimensional forecast expected to culminate in a Supercycle Wave (III) top around Q1 2029 , with an S&P 500 target between 20,000(20K). 🌀 Supercycle Wave (III) — The Final Ascent (1942–2029*) 🌍 SUPERCYCLE STRUCTURE: The Multi-Generational Bull We are inside Supercycle Wave (III) which began in 1942 and is unfolding in 5 Macro Impulse Waves . Each of these macro waves has further Micro and Sub-Micro waves. As of 2025, we're in the final stretch of this grand cycle, specifically: 👉 Sub-Micro Wave ③ of Micro Wave ⑤ of Macro Wave ⑤ of Supercycle Wave (III) Final top expected in Q1 2029 , around the 20,000 (20K) zone 📍 🧭 MACRO WAVE TIMELINE (Supercycle III) 🔹 Macro Wave ① (1942–1968): 🌟 Post-War Industrial Renaissance Fundamentals: WWII victory → economic dominance Baby boom, suburbanization, auto and housing expansion Bretton Woods system established USD supremacy 💵 Smart Money Insight: Institutional capital rotated from war manufacturing into consumer goods, construction, and tech foundations Price Action: Strong impulsive move with clean higher highs/lows Fibonacci Insight: Laid the base for 1.618 extension targets Ends in 1968 with rising inflation and Vietnam drag 🔹 Macro Wave ② (1968–1974): 🌪️ Stagflation Storm Fundamentals: Vietnam War expenditures Gold standard broken (1971 Nixon shock) Oil embargo, inflation > growth Price Action: Deep correction, volatile chop, broad distribution SMC Insight: Institutions exited cyclicals, quietly accumulated future outperformers (tech, defense) Fibonacci: 0.236% retracement of Super Cycle Wave ii 🔹 Macro Wave ③ (1974–2000): 🚀 Tech & Financialization Explosion Fundamentals: Reaganomics & deregulation PC revolution, Internet birth, globalization 🌐 Explosion in derivatives, S&P futures, ETFs SMC: Institutions accumulated during 70s lows, fueled tech IPO boom (Apple, Microsoft) Price Action: Violent rallies with accelerating slope — classic 3rd wave behavior Fibonacci: Extended well beyond 4.618% of Macro ① & ② — true power wave 🔹 Macro Wave ④ (2000–2009): 🌊 Dot-Com + Financial Crisis Correction Fundamentals: Dot-Com bust ➜ $5T in lost value 9/11 shocks & Iraq war GFC: Housing bubble → global banking collapse Price Action: Double top structure (2000 & 2007), multi-leg correction SMC Insight: Smart money cashed out in 2000 and 2007; bought again heavily in March 2009 Structure: WXY complex correction, bottoming with V-shape GFC recovery Fibonacci: 0.236% retracement of Macro ② 🔶 MACRO WAVE ⑤ (2009–2029): 🔥 The Final Ascent – AI, Liquidity & Euphoria This is the final macro wave of Supercycle (III), and it subdivides into 5 Micro Impulse Waves. We are now in Micro Wave ⑤ , which itself contains Sub-Micro Waves 1–5. 🔷 Micro Wave ① (2009–Apr 2010): 🪙 The Bounce from Oblivion Fundamentals: Fed QE1 💉, bailouts (TARP), 0% rates Fear of deflation flipped to hunt for yield Price Action: Clean V-bottom, shallow pullbacks SMC: Institutions were loading REITs, tech, and banks post-GFC carnage 🔷 Micro Wave ② (Apr 2010–Jun 2010): 🩻 Flash Crash Flush Fundamentals: Euro debt scare, Greece bailout, volatility spike Price Action: Sharp correction, liquidity vacuum Fibonacci: Textbook 0.236% retracement SMC: Stop hunt phase — liquidity grab before next leg 🔷 Micro Wave ③ (Jun 2010–2018): 🚀 Passive Investing Boom Fundamentals: QE2, QE3 → massive central bank asset inflation Apple, Amazon, Google explode in earnings and valuation ETF revolution = automated capital flows Price Action: Relentless trend with low volatility Fibonacci: 2.618+ extension of Wave ① SMC: Institutions began multi-year hold strategies (FANGM), volatility sellers emerged 🔷 Micro Wave ④ (2018–2020): ⚠️ Volatility & COVID Shock Fundamentals: Rate hikes (2018), trade war (US-China) COVID black swan — global shutdown, crude oil collapse (went negative!) Price Action: Massive drop with record velocity (VIX > 80) SMC: Panic selling, smart money accumulation March 2020 🔵 MICRO WAVE ⑤ (2020–2029): 📈 The Final Climb Begins This is where we are now. This Micro Wave ⑤ is subdividing into: 🟢 Sub-Micro Wave ① (Mar 2020 – Nov 2021): 💹 Stimulus Mania Fundamentals: Unlimited QE, COVID relief checks Crypto/NFT mania, meme stocks (GME/AMC) Retail explosion via Robinhood & Reddit Price Action: Parabolic rally, overbought signals SMC: Institutions faded retail euphoria mid-2021 🟡 Sub-Micro Wave ② (Nov 2021 – Oct 2022): 🔻 Inflation Reckoning Fundamentals: CPI > 9%, Fed hikes aggressively Yield curve inversion, tech meltdown Price Action: 0.236% retracement SMC: Smart money rotated into energy, defense, and value stocks during panic Sentiment : Retail fled, fear extreme — perfect accumulation zone 🔴 Sub-Micro Wave ③ (Oct 2022 – Est. 2027): ⚡ AI Supercycle Ignites CURRENT WAVE IN PROGRESS Fundamentals: AI revolution (ChatGPT, LLMs, Robotics, Automation) Cloud, semiconductors, defense, biotech surge Fiscal policy dominance, wars & tech race 🧠 Price Action: Clean impulse structure Shallow pullbacks, breakout-retest continuation SMC: Institutions aggressively long AI/Defense (Nvidia, Palantir, defense contractors) Liquidity injections in dips, stealth breakouts Fibonacci Target: 3.618 extension ~11,200 Expected to peak in 2026 🟠 Sub-Micro Wave ④ (Est. 2027-2028): 🧯 Last Shakeout Before the Climax Expect: Profit-taking, geopolitical panic, credit stress Retest of broken trendline or previous resistance zone Fibonacci : Retrace 0.236–0.382 of Wave ③ SMC: Final accumulation before blow-off top 🔵 Sub-Micro Wave ⑤ (Est. 2028–Q1 2029): 🚨 Blow-Off Top: 20,000 Target Fundamentals: Peak optimism: “AI replaces everything”, euphoria Retail mania, influencer ETFs Fed/central banks possibly easing again to avoid slowdown Price Action: Parabolic, low pullbacks, extreme momentum, RSI divergence, volume climax SMC: Massive institutional distribution — quiet selling into strength Target: ~20,000 (5.618 of Wave ①), final top of Supercycle (III) 🛑 What Comes After? SUPERCYCLE WAVE (IV): 🔻 Decade-Long Reset (2029–2040?) Major correction, potentially multi-decade sideways or secular bear Catalyst? AI bust, geopolitical war, credit collapse "Stay focused on structure, not emotions." - FIBCOS 📘 Disclaimer: This is a structural, educational market outlook. Not financial advice. Please do your own due diligence and risk management. #FIBCOS #ElliottWave #SmartMoneyConcept #MarketAnalysis #Gold #XAUUSD #ElliottWave #WaveTheory #SuperCycle #MacroTrend #SmartMoney #Fibonacci #PriceAction #Commodities #TechnicalAnalysis #LongTermOutlook
SP:SPXLong
by fibcos
Inflation 2022 trendline now is the keyAs you can see this trendline is acting as a major resistance. Once Spx break it out it is highly probable that that trendline turns into a support. Spx will test is and if it holds we can see 7000/7050 pips by the end of November 2025. That is a 4% gain. I would like to highligh that because the liquidity in the system is so high is very probable to see this happen... and yes... this is only the beginning because then at 7000 pips there is a Fib ring which could provide us the real progression of the Sp500
SP:SPXLong
by josemanuelmaestrerodriguez
S&P 500, Has the Annual High Been Reached?Has the S&P 500 index made its annual peak at 6,700 points? This is the legitimate question technical analysts are asking after the market reached the upper part of a long-term bullish channel last week. The valuation of the S&P 500 has surpassed its late 2021 highs, and the market seems to have reached the end of a bullish rally that began last April. 1. It is logical that the market entered a technical pause after reaching a major target (6,700 points) In an analysis published on TradingView in mid-September, we highlighted the presence of a medium/long-term bullish channel on the S&P 500. This channel passes around 6,700 points, which was also the median price target of financial analysts for 2025. The 6,700-point level was therefore both a technical and a fundamental target, so it is logical that this resistance triggered a pause in the S&P 500. However, it is still far too early to speak of the end of the long-term bullish trend, even if the market enters a short-term correction. The first chart below shows this bullish channel acting as resistance, but it also shows that there is currently no bearish price/momentum divergence (with momentum represented here by the RSI). 2. Market sentiment analysis still does not display the characteristics of a final top Market tops are always built during phases of retail investor euphoria, while bottoms occur during phases of extreme fear. The latest sentiment survey by the American Association of Individual Investors shows that there is still a balance between buyers and sellers, despite the strong bullish phase between April and September. Here too, the characteristics of a final annual market top are not present, even if a short-term correction is legitimate. 3. Quantitative analysis also does not indicate the end of a long-term bullish trend It is therefore too early to claim that this upper channel boundary is the final peak of 2025. This is also the message conveyed by quantitative market analysis, which shows that US equities (S&P 500 components) are not in an extreme overheating zone overall. In fact, only 55% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50-day simple moving average, and the market has not recently entered a phase of excessive bullishness. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. 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SP:SPX
by Swissquote
SPX - That's all folks?The world has gone nuts, but markets didn't even blink. Now the SPX has reached it's U-MLH, which means, it's at a real extreme. This is a level where price starts to stall, then turn. Often we see "a last attempt" to break through, and it really could happen. But then, gravity again takes it's toll and the rocket starts to turn south. Here are the scenarios I see: 1. Immediate turn at the U-MLH. Target is the Centerline. 2. A break of the U-MLH, then back into the fork and a fall down to the Centerline. 3. Break the U-MLH, continuation to the WL1. The most unlikely would be 3. In my view, Party People should have left allready, but they refused to. And that's why this time headaches will be the least problem they face. Wating for a short signal, to load up heavy.
SP:SPXShort
by HowToChart
S&P500 pushing to a new ATH?The S&P 500 (+0.34%) pushed to another record high as Q4 began, showing resilience despite ongoing US government shutdown risks and a weaker ADP private payrolls report, which signaled contraction. Markets leaned on expectations of faster Fed rate cuts, with Treasury yields falling sharply as investors reassessed labor market strength. Sector drivers: Gold and defensive plays gained as shutdown uncertainty supported safe-haven demand. Tech outperformed: OpenAI’s $500bn valuation lifted AI-linked sentiment, with gains spilling into suppliers like Samsung and SK Hynix. Cybersecurity risk weighed on software names after hackers claimed a breach of Oracle’s E-Business Suite, demanding ransom payments. Apple slipped on reports it is halting Vision Pro updates to prioritize AI glasses. Market tone: Optimism around rate cuts and AI-driven growth continues to underpin the S&P 500, but shutdown risks and labor market fragility remain key watchpoints for near-term volatility. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 6750 Resistance Level 2: 6770 Resistance Level 3: 6800 Support Level 1: 6680 Support Level 2: 6660 Support Level 3: 6640 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
$SPX500 Swing Trade: Bullish SMA Setup!📈 S&P 500 CFD: Thief’s Bullish Pullback Plan 🤑💰 🚨 Swing/Day Trade Setup: S&P 500 Index CFDSteal profits with this 200 SMA Pullback Plan using the "Thief" layered entry strategy! 📊💸 Below is a detailed breakdown combining technicals, fundamentals, and market sentiment to help you navigate this bullish opportunity. Let’s dive in! 🐂 🎯 Trading Plan Overview Asset: S&P 500 Index CFD ( FOREXCOM:SPX500 ) Bias: Bullish 🐂 Strategy: Pullback to 200 SMA with layered "Thief" limit orders for entries Why This Plan? Technicals: The S&P 500 is riding record highs with strong momentum, supported by the 200 SMA as a dynamic support level. Fundamentals: Cooling inflation (PPI -0.1% vs. +0.3% expected), 100% Fed rate cut probability, and robust corporate earnings (+10% in 2025, +13% in 2026) fuel bullish sentiment. Sentiment: Neutral Fear & Greed Index (51/100) with low volatility (VIX ~15.04) and AI-driven institutional flows (e.g., Oracle +30%). 📊 Thief’s Technical Setup Entry Strategy: Use the Thief Layered Entry approach with multiple buy limit orders to catch pullbacks: 🔔 Buy Limit 1: $6,460 🔔 Buy Limit 2: $6,480 🔔 Buy Limit 3: $6,500 🔔 Buy Limit 4: $6,520 💡 Pro Tip: Adjust layer levels based on your risk tolerance and market conditions. You can enter at any price level or add more layers for flexibility! Entry Trigger: Pullback to the 200 SMA for optimal risk-reward. Stop Loss (SL): Suggested "Thief" SL: $6,440 (below key support). ⚠️ Note: Adjust your SL based on your risk management and strategy. Trade at your own risk, dear Traders! Take Profit (TP): Target: $6,700 (near resistance, potential overbought zone, or "police barricade" trap). 🚨 Note: Escape with profits before resistance hits! Set your TP based on your goals—don’t blindly follow mine. Take money at your own risk! 📡 Real-Time Market Data (10 Sept 2025, UTC+1) Daily Change: +37.43 points (+0.57%) YTD Performance: Record highs driven by AI optimism and Fed rate cut expectations. 😰😊 Fear & Greed Index Current Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 51/100) Breakdown: 📈 Market Momentum: Bullish (S&P 500 above 125-day MA). 🌬️ Volatility (VIX): Low (~15.04), signaling calm markets. 🛡️ Safe Haven Demand: Moderate (bonds lagging stocks). 💰 Junk Bond Demand: Slight greed (narrowing yield spreads). ⚖️ Options Activity: Balanced put/call ratio. 🏛️ Macro & Fundamental Analysis Producer Price Index (PPI): August PPI fell -0.1% (vs. +0.3% expected), easing inflation concerns. Fed Rate Cut: 100% probability of a 25-50 bps cut in September 2025. Labor Market: Weaker-than-expected (911K jobs revised down through March 2025). Corporate Earnings: Strong outlook (+10% growth in 2025, +13% in 2026). Key Drivers: 🚀 AI investment surge (e.g., Oracle +30%, Nvidia strength). 🌍 Geopolitical risks (Poland-Russia tensions, Middle East concerns). 📉 Trade policy uncertainties (Trump tariff threats). 🐂🐻 Sentiment Analysis Institutional Outlook: Cautiously optimistic 🏦 Deutsche Bank & Wells Fargo: S&P 500 targets at 7,000+ by 2026. 💡 Focus: AI capex and earnings resilience. Retail Trader Mood: Mixed but leaning bullish 📈 Meme stock activity (e.g., GameStop +10%). ₿ Crypto correlation (Bitcoin at $111.9K, Solana at 7-month highs). ⚡ Why This Plan Stands Out Technical Edge: The 200 SMA pullback is a proven strategy for swing/day traders, offering high-probability entries. Thief Strategy: Layered limit orders maximize flexibility and reduce risk of missing the move. Macro Support: Cooling inflation, Fed rate cuts, and AI-driven earnings create a bullish backdrop. Sentiment Boost: Neutral sentiment with low volatility supports steady upside potential. Risks to Watch: Geopolitical shocks, overvaluation concerns, and seasonal market weakness. 🔍 Related Pairs to Watch (in USD) Nasdaq 100 CFD ( NASDAQ:NDX ): Tracks tech-heavy AI stocks driving S&P 500 momentum. VIX ( TVC:VIX ): Monitor volatility spikes for potential reversals. US 10-Year Treasury Yield ( TVC:TNX ): Impacts risk sentiment and stock valuations. FX:USDJPY : Correlates with risk-on/risk-off market moves. Bitcoin ( BITSTAMP:BTCUSD ): Tracks retail sentiment and risk appetite. 🚨 Key Takeaways 🏆 S&P 500 at record highs, supported by soft PPI and Fed cut expectations. 😎 Neutral sentiment with a greedy tilt if macro data improves. 🤖 AI trade dominates institutional flows, powering bullish momentum. 📅 Watch upcoming CPI data and Fed meeting for next catalysts. ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” #SPX500 #SwingTrading #DayTrading #ThiefStrategy #Bullish #TechnicalAnalysis #Macro #AI #FedRateCut #TradingIdeas
SP:SPXLong
by The-Thief
SPX500 – Bearish Below 6,662 as Shutdown Risks Cloud Fed OutlookSPX500 – Overview SPX500 is trading cautiously as Wall Street weighs the risk of a potential U.S. government shutdown and the Fed’s next policy steps. The lack of clarity over upcoming economic data—especially if NFP is delayed—adds to volatility and makes short-term moves highly data- and headline-driven. Technical Outlook The index has stabilized below the 6,662 pivot, which supports ongoing bearish momentum. → As long as price stays under 6,662, downside targets are 6,635 and 6,617, with a further extension toward 6,580 if momentum accelerates. However, if price stabilizes above 6,673, the bullish trend could resume toward 6,699 and higher. Pivot: 6,662 Support: 6,635 – 6,617 – 6,580 Resistance: 6,674 – 6,699 – 6,742
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
SPX500 Index – Ready for the Next Pullback Heist Move?🚨 SPX500 / US500 Index – The Money Heist Swing Plan 🎭💰 📊 Plan Overview Bias: Bullish 200-SMA Pullback Plan @ 6380.00 Entry Strategy (Layering Style): Thief strategy = multiple buy limit orders stacked like layers 🎯 6400.00 ✅ 6410.00 ✅ 6420.00 ✅ 6440.00 ✅ (You can increase or adjust the layering based on your own style and risk tolerance.) 🛡️ Stop Loss (Thief SL) SL: 6360.00 ⚠️ Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s), adjust your SL to fit your risk style. This is just the plan’s guardrail. 🎯 Target / Exit Target Zone: 6580.00 🚀 Note: This is the “Police Resistance” 🛑 – an overbought + trap zone. Escape with the stolen money 🎭💰 before getting caught. Reminder: Not financial advice. You decide where to take profits. 🤔 Why This Plan? 🔹 200 SMA Pullback Logic: Price retraced into moving average = classic thief-style entry. 🔹 Layering Strategy Advantage: Building positions gradually improves average entry price & reduces risk. 🔹 Momentum & Sentiment: Neutral Fear & Greed Index (53/100) 😐 and low volatility (VIX 16.9) = stable environment for pullback entries. 🔹 Market Strength: US500 is up +16.81% YTD 🚀 with strong sector support (Alphabet +8.57%, Macy’s +19%). 🔹 Risk Factor: Economic data shows weakness (job openings & factory orders ↓), but bulls remain in control = reason for cautious layering. 🔹 Overall Outlook: Bullish score 65/100 ✅ → Mildly bullish bias fits perfectly with a buy-the-dip pullback strategy. 🔹 Trap Zone Awareness: Plan exits near resistance at 6580.00 to avoid overbought trap — thieves always escape before alarms go off 🚨. 📊 US500 INDEX CFD Real-Time Data (September 03) Daily Change: +0.51% ↗️ Monthly Performance: +1.87% ↗️ Yearly Performance: +16.81% 🚀 All-Time High: 6,510.93 (August 2025) 😰😊 Investor Sentiment: Fear & Greed Index Current Reading: 53/100 (Neutral) 😐 Trend: Balanced sentiment with no extreme fear or greed. Key Indicators: Market Momentum: S&P 500 above 125-day moving average (positive momentum) ↗️ Volatility (VIX): Low volatility (16.90), indicating stability 🟢 Options Activity: Put/Call ratio stable (no significant fear) Junk Bond Demand: Moderate risk appetite Safe Haven Demand: Bonds underperforming stocks (greed signal) 📈 Fundamental & Macro Score Market Breadth: Moderate (balanced volume) ⚖️ Economic Data: Job openings lowest since Sept (weakness) 🔻 Factory orders down -1.3% 🔻 Friday’s jobs report = critical ⚠️ Sector Performance: Communication services (Alphabet +8.57%) 🟢 Consumer discretionary (Macy’s +19%) 🟢 Energy sector weak (Exxon Mobil -2.08%) 🔻 🐂🐻 Overall Market Outlook Bullish Score: 65/100 (Mildly Bullish) ✅ Reasons: Strong yearly gains (+16.81%) Low volatility & neutral sentiment support stability Tech & communication sectors leading momentum Risks: Weakening job & factory data High valuations near ATH 💡 Key Takeaways US500 trending upward with neutral short-term sentiment. Friday’s jobs report = key catalyst. Sector rotation in play: tech strong, energy weak. Balanced fear/greed supports controlled bullish setups. 📌 Related Pairs to Watch FOREXCOM:SPX500 CAPITALCOM:US500 TVC:DJI NASDAQ:NDX TVC:VIX (for risk gauge) ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” #SPX500 #US500 #IndexTrading #SwingTrade #LayeredEntry #SMAPullback #TradingPlan #StockMarket #SP500 #InvestorSentiment #FearGreed
TRADU:SPX500Long
by The-Thief
S&P 500 – Steady Uptrend Within Rising ChannelThe S&P 500 continues to grind higher within a well-defined rising channel, holding above both the 50-day SMA (6,486) and the 200-day SMA (6,023), which reinforces the broader bullish structure. Price action has respected the channel boundaries since May, with the recent bounce off the mid-line suggesting buyers remain in control. Momentum indicators support the bullish bias: MACD is positive, showing steady upside momentum. RSI sits near 68, not yet overbought but approaching elevated levels, hinting at a possible test of the channel’s upper boundary. As long as price holds above the 6,600 zone, the path of least resistance remains higher, with the channel top near 6,800 as the next potential target. A break below the channel support, however, could trigger a corrective pullback toward the 6,450–6,500 area, aligning with the 50-day SMA. Overall, the trend remains bullish, with dips likely to be treated as buying opportunities while the channel structure holds. -MW
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by FOREXcom