GOLD IN A DANGER ZONE, SAFE ASSETS DAYS ARE GONE FOPR A WHILE?after a rally with small corrections since 2019. gold never saw a bear season or 35-39% correction
2026 might be the year for that to happen
DYOR
Trade ideas
XAUUSD M30 TIME FRAME CHART ANALYSIS TARGET HIT Gold running 350++pips hit
Xauusd King here
Today 1000+pips hit gold
If you don't know about market don't trade
LONG XAUUSD 29 10 2025 This is totally Price analysis ass you can see in the 4hr chart we are targeting 4400 as of 29.10.2025 we closing the9nthly candle let us see how we close and open the following month
Gold Prices Retreat from Record High- FOMC on TapGold prices are retreating from record highs with a decline of more than 11.3% now testing a major pivot zone at the 38.2% retracement of the August advance at 3973- looking for a reaction off this mark with a break / close below needed to suggest a more significant high is in place / a larger correction is underway. Subsequent support objectives rest with the 50% retracement / October open at 3846/59 with broader bullish invalidation steady at 3700/20.
Initial resistance remains with the 10/21 reversal close at 4125 with a breach / close above 4251 needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend. Keep in mind this is a massive week for event risk with the FOMC, BoC, ECB, and the BoJ interest rate decisions on tap as the government shutdown extends into the fourth week. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly close here for guidance.
-MB
XAUUSD - Will Gold Continue to Fall?!Gold is trading below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 30-minute timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. The reduction in its downward momentum in the demand range will provide us with a better risk-reward buying position. A move towards the supply range above the channel will be our next short trade!
Gold prices fell below $4,000 per ounce for the first time since October 10, following a sharp $125 decline.
According to a Reuters survey, the average gold price in 2026 is expected to reach $4,275 per ounce, while silver prices are projected to average $50 per ounce in the same year.
For 2025, the survey anticipates an average gold price of $3,400, up from $3,220 in the previous poll, while the average silver price is forecasted to rise to $38.45 from $34.52 previously.
Analysts at Nomura stated that U.S.–China relations have entered a repetitive cycle of tension, escalation, and temporary détente, likely forming a “new normal” in the long term.
Lu Ting, Nomura’s chief China economist, noted that the world’s two largest economies appear to be settling into a predictable pattern of “strain–escalation–pause”, which may define the framework of their relationship in the foreseeable future.
Recent trade talks in Kuala Lumpur hinted at a temporary easing of friction, with both sides reportedly considering limited concessions, such as extending tariff suspensions and resuming soybean imports from the U.S.
However, deep-seated disputes remain unresolved — including export restrictions on rare earth elements, compliance with trade commitments, and broader geopolitical disagreements — all of which cloud the outlook for bilateral relations.
Lu cautioned that while short-term cooperation may continue due to mutual economic dependence, long-term strategic competition between Washington and Beijing is expected to intensify.
Nomura believes this recurrent cycle of conflict and reconciliation will likely become the enduring pattern of U.S.–China relations.
Such a backdrop implies persistent volatility in global markets, particularly in commodities and technology sectors, which are highly sensitive to trade developments between the two nations.
Investors should prepare for alternating periods of optimism and renewed tension.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs against Canada may turn into a major self-inflicted setback, as the move faces both a legal challenge before the U.S. Supreme Court and bipartisan opposition.
Next week, the Supreme Court is set to hear a case focusing on Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to justify these tariffs. Trump initially invoked an emergency declaration related to fentanyl to impose them — despite the fact that such powers are typically reserved for sanctions against U.S. adversaries.
The case represents not only a test of the tariffs’ legality, but also a measure of Trump’s and MAGA’s influence over the Court.
Notably, Senator Lisa Murkowski, a Republican, joined over 200 Democrats in sending a letter to the justices urging them to strike down the tariffs.
The oral arguments are scheduled for November 5, and the final ruling, which could serve as a major market mover, is expected sometime next year.
Currently, prediction markets estimate a 38% probability that the tariffs will be overturned.
At the same time, Morgan Stanley reported that U.S. dollar positioning has turned positive for the first time in several months, reflecting renewed investor confidence in the U.S. economic outlook.
This shift comes amid rising political instability in Japan and France, which has diminished the appeal of non-dollar assets and strengthened capital flows toward the greenback.
Strategists at the bank added that demand for downside protection against the dollar has declined, indicating that investors perceive a low risk of a sharp correction in the near term.
Nevertheless, Morgan Stanley warned that this uptrend might not be sustainable — if U.S. economic data, particularly employment figures, fail to show significant improvement, the dollar could again face renewed downward pressure, and rate-cut expectations from the Federal Reserve could rise.
Finally, Treasury Secretary Scott Bassent confirmed that five candidates have been shortlisted to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair:
Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, and Rick Rieder.
Bassent stated that one more round of interviews will take place, and he plans to submit the final shortlist to President Trump after Thanksgiving, with a final decision expected before year-end.
XAUUSD Bearish Short-Term, Bullish Longer-TermFundamental approach:
- Gold prices traded lower this week after setting fresh record highs earlier in Oct, pressured by profit-taking and cautious sentiment ahead of delayed US inflation data.
- Geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of further Fed easing continued to support underlying demand for safe havens in the longer term.
- US President Trump'sTrump's new sanctions on Russia and export restrictions toward China, alongside the prolonged US government shutdown, reinforced demand early in the week. At the same time, stabilization in trade rhetoric and rising yields curbed momentum later.
- However, a stronger US dollar and rising Treasury yields amid improved global risk appetite and optimism around an upcoming US. China dialogue also reduced safe-haven demand in the short term, especially with today's CPI, which is expected to rise.
Technical approach:
- Gold consolidated within the range of 4054-4113. The price is below the converging EMAs, indicating that a bearish momentum persists.
- If the XAUUSD breaches the support at 4054, the price may decline further toward the next support level at 3950.
- On the contrary, remaining above 4054 may prompt a retest of the upper range at 4143, confluenced with the EMA21.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
20251028-XAUUSD IdeaThe major timeframe continues to exhibit a decline–consolidation–decline structure, confirming that it has officially entered a corrective phase.
Next, observe where Wave A completes and whether there is any market reaction around the 3791 level.
Analysis of goldIn my opinion, gold’s deep correction is still ongoing, at least until the 3800 area, which could act as a strong support level.
There’s a possibility that the price might rise again, mainly due to news about issues between China and the U.S.
Under normal conditions, I don’t see any motivation for buyers, and the chart confirms this view. It’s better to wait until the price reaches the 3800 zone — taking positions on either side at the current levels is risky.
XAUUSD Long: Bulls Preparing for the Next Impulse Toward 4180Hello, traders! Gold (XAUUSD) continues to move within a strong bullish structure, defined by a clear Ascending Channel. The market has shown steady buyer strength, forming consistent higher highs and higher lows. Along this uptrend, price has broken resistance level — most notably around 3950, turning him into new support zone. After reaching the upper part of the channel near the Supply Zone (around 4250), the price entered a corrective phase, retesting the midline of the ascending channel.
This correction appears healthy within the broader bullish context, as it aligns with previous pivot points and areas where demand has repeatedly returned.
Currently, the market is trading between the Support Zone (around 3950) and the Supply Zone (around 4100–4250). Buyers have recently defended the lower boundary of the channel, suggesting potential continuation to the upside if momentum sustains.
My main scenario anticipates a bullish continuation from the current pivot zone.
If the price successfully holds above the Demand Line and breaks through 4100, I expect a further move toward the 4180–4250 resistance area — which aligns with the top of the channel and prior supply zone.In my opinion, this structure still favors the bulls, and any correction toward 3950 would likely offer a buying opportunity within the prevailing uptrend.Therefore, my target (TP) is set at 4180, aiming for a retest of the channel’s upper resistance line. Manage your risk!
Gold on Support levels / #6,100.80 Medium-term TargetTechnical analysis: This week's huge red Daily candlestick pattern is an indication of increased tension and war / conflict escalation negativity as geopolitical tensions arise which invalidated Buyers intent and comforted Short-term Gold’s Sellers early on. Gold was once again on High demand as Investors used the metal as an traditional safe-haven asset where capital strongly flew into Gold, pushing the Price-action way above the #13-Month High’s however due Profit taking of most Buyers (Long-term Investors) Gold dipped on Friday's session traditional Profit taking and was testing #4,000.80 benchmark and as (by my personal opinion) DX skyrocketed and engaged Short-term Buy-off rally where Selling pressure from DX de-escalated Gold towards June #1 High’s again (currently even Lower) and currently it is the question where market will be headed next. Gold was on hard Resistance levels and current consolidation levels (historical regression analysis) points that when Trading for Long on those levels, strong downside direction comes in form of #100 to 200 point + decline. Besides this, nothing else Supports the downwards argument (except current High Impact factor) since all Charts turned critically Bearish on Short-term. #4,000.80 mark is now new / old Support and by my calculation chances for breaking it again without new news are Technically really impossible (too far fetched and without catalyst to take the Price-action towards those / current High’s).
My position: However, in each market situation, Trader has to adapt. Therefore, do not take strong bets on the market, Buy and Sell current Intra-day timeframe with aggressive Scalps (#3 to #5-points) and close your order, calling it for the week. Expect new instructions with my Monday-session commentary. Also my #6,100.80 benchmark is posing as my new Medium-term Target.
XAUUSD is REVERSE in BULLISH PHASEChart Description (Wyckoff Accumulation Phase – XAUUSD)
Gold is currently performing exactly according to the Wyckoff Accumulation Phase, completing the Spring and Test phase and preparing for a strong bullish rally.
After a prolonged markdown and the formation price successfully complete its projections confirming the Wyckoff Spring.
📈 Entry Zone: Around the Test level near support — ideal for early accumulation.
🎯 Target: Previous resistance and new All-Time Highs (Phase E expansion).
🛡️ Stop Loss: Below the Test zone to manage risk effectively.
This setup represents a classic Wyckoff re-accumulation structure, suggesting that Gold (XAUUSD) is ready to continue its bullish cycle and potentially break into new all-time highs.
GOLD XAUUSD GOLD LONDON /NEWYORK BUY ZONE COULD BE 3945-3940 ZONE .i see a strong double confluence where a descending trendline meets a horizontal support structure,
risk management is key,if price rally at this zone,learn to take profit and protect your capital
600 PIPS ALREADY Price moved 600 pips already from our entry (4081-86) without any major retracement .
Time to buy Gold again?Gold is starting to look good for a new long entry. Stochastic is pushing up through 20, price might break the recent down trend. We would say that you need to wait for the trendline to break and for the stochastic to break up through 50 before this is a confirmed long trade, but since we want to put it on your radar early, we are calling it a long trade now.
xauusd possible moveConsidering what l have mapped down, this is likely gold's next path
Analyse, execute, monitor
Disclaimer : Risk as per self responsible
There are shorting opportunities in gold prices today.There are shorting opportunities in gold prices today.
International gold prices are currently fluctuating around $4,012 per ounce, mainly influenced by both bullish and bearish factors.
On one hand, a stronger dollar and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance are putting pressure on gold prices; on the other hand, long-term factors such as geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases are providing support.
---------------------------------------- Key technical levels: Resistance levels: $4030-$4050, $4090-$4110.
A break above these resistance levels could unlock further upside potential.
Support levels: $3950-$3900, $3850-$3820.
A break below these support levels could trigger a larger pullback.
💡 Specific trading strategy:
Currently, gold prices are below the key resistance zone ($4030-$4050), and the short-term trend leans towards consolidation.
If gold prices fail to break through $4,050, consider establishing a small short position with a stop-loss order above $4,070 and a target price around $3,960.
XAU / USD 1 Hour ChartHello traders. Taking a look at the hourly chart, gold has broken out a bit for a push up. I am waiting to see if we can drop back towards the $4k area, to be sure it holds as support. Many times gold doesn't retest, it just moves, but for now I am waiting to see if we can come down to my area marked on the chart. This is just speculation and a trade idea. Let's see how things play out over the next hour or so. Big G gets a shout out. I am just looking for a potential scalp trade, but it is Monday, so I am in no hurry to force or rush a trade. Be well and trade the trend.
What's next for the yellow metal?We've had an incredible run from September until late October, and even when the pullback started it was a solid move. And, so what's up now? Well, as you see in the chart for the converse ICT or SMC traders, the stacked Weekly BISI (Buyside Imbalance Sellside Ineffiency) held solid support to keep price from pushing any lower. Based on the current Dealing Range, price closed within the Discount range. I'd like to see price make a push higher and possibly testing into 4150, and maybe it'll start to create a base there for another leg higher. I won't be so ambitious to expect another ATH just yet, it'll take some time for price build some soild ground first. I'm expecting another range bound trades again until 4200 can be broken to confirm buyside momentum still intact.
Good luck and safe trade.
History of Gold Cycles Chart - Inspiration After doing the weekly rounds and reads I came across a post that had this great chart by Crescat Capital. The simple breakdown provides a clean overview from then until now, which for me makes who the Gold market my easier to digest and cut the noise.
XAUUSD 🎯 My Summary & View For Yellow metal
Bias: Bullish, provided support holds.
Strategy Suggestion:
Consider long entries on retests of support zones or after a confirmed breakout above resistance.
Place stop-losses just below the confirmed support to protect against sudden turnarounds.
Set profit targets at the next logical resistance / structure zone.
Watch-outs:
If price breaks below key support and closes there, the bullish thesis weakens.
Overbought conditions / exhaustion of momentum could lead to consolidation or a shallow correction even while trend remains up.
Keep an eye on macro events (Fed decisions, USD strength, geopolitical flare-ups) since gold is sensitive to those
⚠️ Risk Disclaimer
Trading financial instruments such as gold (XAUUSD), forex, cryptocurrencies, and other markets involves a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The information and setups provided are for educational and informational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice or investment recommendations.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Market conditions can change rapidly, and there is always the potential for loss of capital. You should carefully consider your financial situation, trading experience, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions.
Always use proper risk management, including setting stop-loss levels and managing position size. The author of this content is not responsible for any losses incurred from following analyses, trade ideas, or setups shared here.
By engaging in trading activities, you acknowledge and accept all risks associated with financial markets.
