NDX trade ideas
NAS100 Pullback into Fibonacci Zone: Watching for Bullish Break📊 NASDAQ 100 (NAS100) Update 📊
The NAS100 is in a strong bullish trend 🟢📈, clearly visible on the 4H chart ⏰ with consistent higher highs and higher lows 🔼🔼.
Currently, price has pulled back 🔽 right into my optimal entry zone 🎯 based on the Fibonacci retracement 🔢. From here, I’ll be watching closely for a bullish break of structure (BOS) 🔓 on the 15M timeframe ⏰ — that would be my signal to look for a long entry 🚀.
⚠️ This breakdown is educational only and not financial advice. 📚
NASDAQ INDEX (US100): To the New Highs!
US100 index successfully broke and closed above a major
daily resistance cluster on Friday.
The index will likely grow more and reach new highs soon.
The next resistance is 24300
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Futures steady ahead of Fed cutFutures steady ahead of Fed cut
U.S. stock futures held flat on August 15 ahead of the Sept. 17–18 Fed meeting, where a 25-bps cut is widely expected. Markets price about 70 bps of easing by year-end, though Powell may highlight inflation risks to temper dovish bets. Retail sales Tuesday will be the last key data before the decision.
Global markets were subdued: oil ticked higher on Ukraine-Russia tensions, the dollar eased, and Asian stocks firmed with South Korea’s Kospi hitting records. The Bank of Canada may also cut this week, while the BoE and BoJ are likely to stay on hold.
Traders are watching today’s Empire State manufacturing survey (8:30 AM EDT), the Senate vote on Fed nominee Stephen Miran, speeches from ECB’s Lagarde and Schnabel, and EU Council President Costa’s visit to Cyprus ahead of its 2026 presidency.
NAS100 - Stock market awaits Federal Reserve meeting!The indicator is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the one-hour timeframe and is in its long-term ascending channel. If the drawn upward trajectory is maintained, I can expect the future to continue as it has in the past. In case of a valid breakdown, its downward path is to the specified range, which can be approached with a reward for buying.
Last week’s economic data painted a mixed picture of the U.S. economy. On the one hand, new jobless claims rose to 263,000, above the market forecast of 235,000, signaling labor market weakness. On the other hand, the August inflation report came in hotter than expected, though most of the increase stemmed from housing costs rather than tariff pressures. Rents rose 0.34%, marking the fastest gain since December 2024, while shelter costs climbed 0.39%, the sharpest jump since January 2025. Still, real-time housing indicators suggest that prices are adjusting, which will likely be reflected in official data in the coming months.
Meanwhile, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury fell below 4% for the first time since April—a sign that markets are reacting more to labor market weakness and the prospect of Fed rate cuts than to inflation concerns.
CIBC, analyzing the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, stated that while the data came in slightly above expectations, it was not strong enough to dissuade the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) from delivering a 25-basis-point cut next week. Ali Jafari, an economist at the bank, wrote: “There was little in the report to prevent a September rate cut. More importantly, the labor market needs support, and a weaker jobs market implies softer demand-side inflationary pressures ahead.”
On a yearly basis, core inflation held steady at 3.1%, while headline inflation rose two-tenths to 2.9%, both in line with forecasts. More troubling, however, are signs that price increases are spreading into new sectors. The report noted: “Tariff pass-through effects intensified this month, with core goods prices rising at the fastest pace since broad tariffs were imposed. Today’s report also showed the first notable increase in new car prices, suggesting that tariff impacts may now be extending to higher-ticket items, though overall car price gains remain modest.”
CIBC expects the Fed to cut rates in September and October, pause afterward, and then deliver two additional cuts in the first half of next year. The bank added: “The overall U.S. inflation picture remains notably above target, but the Fed is willing to tolerate this for now, given growing concerns about a weakening economy and a labor market showing signs of fatigue.”
Separately, U.S. President Donald Trump once again criticized the Fed in an interview with Fox News, saying the central bank “always acts late on interest rates.” He added: “We have the best stock market in history. Inflation has come down, equities are climbing, so rates should be lower.”
These comments come as the Fed is widely expected to cut rates at Wednesday’s meeting. While such a move could reduce borrowing costs in the short term, analysts caution that lower short-term rates do not necessarily translate into lower long-term yields.
Morgan Stanley now projects that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points at each of the three remaining meetings this year—an upgrade from earlier forecasts of only September and December cuts. The bank also expects three additional 25-basis-point cuts in January, April, and July of 2026.
At the same time, Standard Chartered has revised its outlook and now anticipates a 50-basis-point cut in September—double its previous forecast. The shift followed weak August jobs data showing employment growth had slowed sharply and unemployment rose to 4.3%, the highest since late 2020. The bank described labor market conditions as “dramatic,” noting that in just six weeks the market shifted from “strong” to “weak.” It characterized the larger cut as a form of “catch-up” to align monetary policy with economic realities.
This week is set to be pivotal for global markets, with a series of central bank decisions and key economic releases. Monday will see the Empire State manufacturing index, followed by Tuesday’s August retail sales report. On Wednesday, housing starts and building permits will be released, along with the Bank of Canada’s rate decision. The highlight of the week, however, will be the Fed meeting and Jerome Powell’s press conference.
On Thursday, the Bank of England will announce its policy decision, followed by U.S. jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey. The busy week will conclude Friday with the Bank of Japan’s policy announcement.
Downtrend Analysisafter we get a retest back to the new all time highs this is one of the set ups I can see setting up on nas. In order for us to confirm the sells I am interested in looking for lower high entries only as we start to make the retest back to the main higher low from last week which is at 23986. im expecting a full retest here due to the federal fund rates
NAS100 4H🔹 Overall Outlook and Potential Price Movements
In the charts above, we have outlined the overall outlook and possible price movement paths.
As shown, each analysis highlights a key support or resistance zone near the current market price. The market’s reaction to these zones — whether a breakout or rejection — will likely determine the next direction of the price toward the specified levels.
⚠️ Important Note:
The purpose of these trading perspectives is to identify key upcoming price levels and assess potential market reactions. The provided analyses are not trading signals in any way.
✅ Recommendation for Use:
To make effective use of these analyses, it is advised to manually draw the marked zones on your chart. Then, on the 15-minute time frame, monitor the candlestick behavior and look for valid entry triggers before making any trading decisions.
NAS100 - TRADER EDGE
🎯 KEY PIVOT ZONE
🟧SUPPLY ZONE: 24,480 - 24,520
Multiple session POCs clustered in this range
Highest volume VRVP node concentration
Critical resistance where price is currently struggling
📊 PRICE TARGETS
UPSIDE TARGETS ⬆️
T1: 24,650 - 24,700
T2: 24,750 - 24,800
DOWNSIDE TARGETS ⬇️
T1: 24,350 - 24,400
T2: 24,250 - 24,300
⚡⚡ EDGE - HIGHEST PROBABILITY PLAY
Short from 24,480-24,520 supply zone targeting 24,350+ with stop above 24,550
🔍 KEY CONFIRMATION SIGNALS
✅ Rejection at current supply zone with volume
✅ Break below 24,450 support with momentum
✅ Volume expansion on downside moves
📈 TRADE SETUP
🔴PRIMARY BIAS: BEARISH
Short Setup from Supply Zone:
Entry: 24,480 - 24,520 (on rejection/weakness)
Stop Loss: Above 24,550
Target 1: 24,350 - 24,400
Target 2: 24,250 - 24,300
Risk/Reward: 1:4+ ratio
🔄 BIAS FLIP CONDITIONS
🟢TURNS BULLISH IF:
Clean break above 24,550 with strong volume
Hold above 24,520 on any pullback attempt
Volume expansion above pivot zone indicating fresh buying
⚡Then Target:
24,650 - 24,700 (first)
24,750 - 24,800 (extension)
⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT
Max Risk: 40 points per position
Position Size: Adjust to 1-2% account risk
Time Stop: End of 4-hour session if no movement
NASDAQ short then longOn NASDAQ, considering the break of market structure, I want to see a small push higher to 24,581 (Resistance + 4H value) before short term swing sells to 23.6k (Weekly value). Price respected daily value at 24,285. Once I see a close under daily value structure, I'll look for a pb to daily value. Sells at 4hr value and sells at daily value.
NSDQ100 Key Trading LevelsKey Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 24835
Resistance Level 2: 24950
Resistance Level 3: 25055
Support Level 1: 24190
Support Level 2: 24090
Support Level 3: 24000
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Your childhood goes everything against TRADING!🌱 Growing up vs. Trading
As kids, life drilled one thing into us: WIN, WIN, WIN.
Walk and talk fast – WIN
Get top grades – WIN
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👉 Losing? Not even on the table.
But then comes TRADING… and the rules flip.
Here, you actually need to LOSE to WIN.
Small losses = stepping stones to bigger gains.
Consistency + persistence = long-term success.
🔥 The New Rule of Trading
Accept losses – they’re part of the game.
Cut them quick – protect your capital.
Learn from each one – losses = tuition fees for success.
Think of it like a board game…
Every time you “lose a turn,” you’re not failing – you’re moving closer to the BIG win.
Sounds backwards? That’s the paradox that makes trading magical.
⚡ We Weren’t Raised to Take Risks
As kids: “Play it safe!”
As traders: “Embrace risk – but make it calculated.”
Here’s the secret sauce:
Know your risk tolerance – maybe 0.5%–2% per trade.
Diversify – never stack all your eggs in one basket.
Use stop losses – cut risk, lock in gains, stay alive in the game.
🧠 Trading = A Whole New Mindset
Not about avoiding losses but managing them.
Not about avoiding risks but embracing calculated ones.
Not about ego but strategy, patience, and persistence.
💡 Final Word
Trading humbles us.
We shed the ego.
We lose battles but win wars.
We stay consistent.
We accept the small hits… because they’re the price we pay for the BIG victories.
👉 Love your losses. Respect them.
Because every small “L” is one step closer to your biggest “W.”
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Nas100 Trading ZonesZone 1 – Shallow Overhead Supply
This area has acted as resistance, but with limited data at all-time highs, its reliability is questionable. Sellers may step in here, yet it should be treated as a soft reference point rather than a strong supply zone. Any breakout could easily invalidate it.
Zone 2 – Fragile Support / Momentum Pivot
This level has shown price reactions, but lacks the characteristics of a strong buy zone. It’s better viewed as a short-term pivot area. If broken, it could attract further selling pressure, but traders should avoid relying on it as solid support.
Zone 3 – Yesterday’s Low / Liquidity Pocket
Yesterday’s low provides a natural liquidity zone where buyers may attempt to step in. Still, the strength of this level is limited. Reactions may be sharp but unstable, and a clean break lower could fuel further downside momentum.
The sharp pullback in the Nas100 yesterday looks to be driven by profit-taking after the Fed’s rate cut, combined with Powell’s cautious tone on inflation and growth. With the index trading at record highs, volatility was elevated and many traders used the news as an opportunity to lock in gains. For now, the move appears more like a healthy correction within an uptrend, but key support zones will need to hold to prevent a deeper reversal.
NasdaqToday's price action can tell us a lot about the trend and future movements. After the drop to 24200, an uptrend line formed and resistance at 24470. If this trend continues, we can expect a breakout of this resistance and the key 24500 level. After confirmation, the Nasdaq could reach its highs again. Remember that on the daily chart, we are still in a strong bullish trend. Happy trading!
NAS100 (15-Minute Timeframe)🔍 Key Levels to Watch:
Bullish Setup 👇: After a dip in price, we've seen potential accumulation at the 15-minute FVG (Fair Value Gap), setting up for a possible bounce. 🟢
Bearish Resistance ⬆️: Price is currently interacting with a 1-hour Bearish FVG, with potential for further downside if resistance holds. ⛔️
🔵 Potential Trade Plan:
Look for a Pullback: Price could retrace to the higher time-frame resistance zones around 24,791.45 (HTFL) or 24,786.45.
Key Entry Points: Focus on price action near the 15-minute FVG, which may give us a clearer bullish confirmation. 🟢
Target Zones: Aiming for 24,791.45 and higher based on overall momentum.
🔥 Stay alert and trade wisely! Always use proper risk management.
Greetings,
MrYounity