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SPX500 | Indexes Rise Ahead of JOLTS Data – Key Pivot 6,438S&P 500 & Nasdaq Futures – Update Futures tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rebounded on Wednesday, led by gains in Alphabet after its antitrust ruling. Dow futures edged slightly lower as traders await fresh labor market data. The focus today is the JOLTS report (10 a.m. ET), the first of several key releases this week, with nonfarm payrolls on Friday being the most important. Technical Outlook (SPX500): 🔼 Price reversed from the 6,366 support mentioned in yesterday’s update and has now stabilized above the pivot line at 6,438. As long as price holds above 6,438, upside momentum is expected toward 6,469 → 6,489, with extended resistance at 6,528. 🔻 On the downside, a confirmed 1H close below 6,420 would shift momentum bearish, exposing 6,389 → 6,361. Key Levels: Resistance: 6,469 – 6,489 – 6,528 Support: 6,420 – 6,389 – 6,361
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
US 500 – Preparing for the Pivotal US Non-Farm Payrolls ReleaseAfter a slow start to trading in September due to the US Labour Day bank holiday on Monday, volatility for US indices has picked up across the week as traders react to multiple drivers, including concerns about the sustainability of government debt in the US, Europe and the UK which weighed on sentiment Tuesday, big tech getting a key win in one of the biggest anti-trust cases for years which provided support off the lows, and updates on the current health of the US economy and labour market, including a slightly disappointing ISM Manufacturing PMI Survey on Tuesday, and a weaker than expected JOLTs Job Openings report on Wednesday afternoon. Unsurprisingly, the different responses to these drivers has seen the US 500 index trade from a Monday high of 6483 to a low of 6363 on Tuesday and then move back higher again to current levels around 6450 (0700 BST), as traders cautiously initiate fresh risk positions to kick off the start of September. However, it could be said that the two biggest data releases of the week for traders to digest may still be to come. The first is the US ISM Services PMI which is released later today at 1500 BST. This reading surprised markets last month by falling below expectations to 50.1, just above the 50 level which separates economic expansion and contraction. Traders will be looking to see whether this new print confirms a trend of weaker service activity or if the July reading was just a one-off blip. Then on Friday, it’s the release that potentially every trader has been waiting for since Federal Reserve Chairman Powell mentioned concerns about the strength of the US labour market in his keynote speech from Jackson Hole, and noted how policymakers will be watching employment data closely to determine whether a rate cut at their meeting on September 17th would be appropriate to help support the economy. The outcome of the components of this release, including the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings could determine not only the direction of the US 500 into the weekend but how it performs across the early part of September, a month which is historically one of the worst for US 500 performance. Technical Update: Trend Extension or Trend Reversal? A bullish uptrend is defined by higher price highs and higher price lows, reflecting positive sentiment. Traders within this backdrop are seen to buy dips in price at a higher level each time and are able to push prices above the previous high. As the chart above shows, the US 500 index appears a classic example of an uptrend, with a pattern of higher highs and higher lows emerging since the April 7th low. While the US 500 index may currently be tracing out a bullish trend, further price strength isn’t guaranteed, especially with Friday’s payrolls data looming. This release has the potential to shift investor sentiment in either direction, so traders could find it useful to monitor key support and resistance levels closely. Potential Resistance Levels to Monitor: The recovery from the September 2nd low of 6363, which was above the prior August 20th low of 6347, suggests the uptrend remains intact, keeping the focus on the August 28th all-time high at 6512. A close above this level could signal further price strength. While no guarantee of continued upside, a break above 6512 may open a path towards 6775, which is the 100% Fibonacci extension, and potentially higher. Potential Support Levels to Monitor: If the US 500 index is maintaining an uptrend in price, the potentially important support focus is the August 20th low at 6347. A close below 6347 could see a negative shift in sentiment and increase the risk of a deeper decline. A close below 6347 might well be a trigger for renewed weakness, with potential then to test 6214, the August 1st low, and possibly further. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone
$SPX Trading Range for 9.2.25 Tomorrow’s Trading range looks fun. All of Friday’s candle’s were red, and we have the 35EMA as resistance. Under that we have the 30min 200MA so definitely keep an eye out for that, it is still facing up so it should offer some support - even if just for a technical bounce, and under that all the way at the bottom of the trading range, even underneath the implied moves for the next two days is the 1hr 200MA At the top of the trading range we have a bear gap just under ATH’s. Let me know how you plan to trade this. Let’s make some money.
SP:SPX
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
S&P 500 Index Reaches Another All-Time HighS&P 500 Index Reaches Another All-Time High On 13 August, we wrote about the S&P 500 reaching an all-time high following the release of the CPI report. At that time, we suggested that the price might move towards the upper boundary of the ascending channel (highlighted in blue on the chart). Since then: → the price has set a new record, forming peak 0 near the upper boundary of the channel; → it then fell back towards the lower boundary, where block A was formed; → and subsequently rose again to a fresh all-time high (F), coming close to the 6500 level. The resilience of the blue channel underlines the prevailing bullish sentiment, which is supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut in September – an event seen as positive for the economy and potentially boosting corporate earnings. This optimism is so far outweighing the fact that Nvidia’s shares slipped slightly yesterday after the company’s earnings release (despite results exceeding investor expectations). But is the outlook entirely cloudless? S&P 500 Chart Technical Analysis Looking at the 4-hour chart of the S&P 500, there are grounds to make slight adjustments to the slope and width of the ascending channel to better reflect the latest data. At first glance, the picture appears bullish: → long lower shadows around block A point to strong buying interest; → downward pullbacks (B→C following impulse A→B, and D→E following impulse C→D) halted near the classic 50% Fibonacci retracement; → higher lows in late August give reason to consider the formation of a cup and handle pattern. However, the bears also have their counterarguments: → the 6,500 level could act as psychological resistance (with the risk of a false bullish breakout); → the upper boundary of the channel may provide resistance; → the marked extremes resemble a bearish rising wedge pattern. Progress in establishing new highs is becoming weaker each time – it seems that the S&P 500 bull market is running out of steam. This raises concerns about a correction – and with September’s long-standing reputation as the most unfavourable month for markets, a noticeable pullback could happen. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXM
by FXOpen
1
Impulse wave up for SPX500USDHi traders, Since my last post SPX500USD made a sharp correction (wave 4) and after that it went up again making ATH's. Last week it made a correction (Flat). So next week after the finish of the c-wave of the correction, we could see the next impulsive wave up. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a small pullback and a change in orderflow to bullish on a lower timeframe to trade longs when the correction is finished. If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EduwaveTrading
THE 75-YEAR SECRETHOW ONE ECONOMIC NUMBER PREDICTS STOCK MARKET MOVES Edgetools Macro Alpha Series Imagine if you could predict stock market movements with remarkable accuracy using just one simple economic indicator. This isn't fantasy - it's the power of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), a little-known economic metric that has been quietly beating the market for over 75 years. This analysis reveals how PMI has consistently predicted S&P 500 movements using 931 monthly readings spanning from 1948 to 2025. Our research shows that when PMI signals economic expansion, your chances of making money in stocks jump to 41.2% - significantly better than the 35.8% win rate during economic contractions. More importantly, we'll show you exactly which PMI levels have historically delivered the best returns and how ordinary investors can use this knowledge to their advantage. What Is PMI and Why Should You Care? Think of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) as the economy's early warning system. Every month, purchasing managers at manufacturing companies across America answer a simple survey about their business: Are things getting better or worse? The combined responses create a single number between 0 and 100 that reveals the health of the manufacturing sector. Here's the key insight that most investors miss: PMI doesn't just predict manufacturing trends - it predicts stock market movements. When PMI rises above 50, it signals economic expansion and historically better stock returns. When it falls below 50, it warns of economic contraction and typically weaker market performance. The beauty of PMI lies in its simplicity and timing. Unlike corporate earnings that are reported quarterly and often manipulated, PMI comes out monthly and reflects real business activity. Manufacturing managers can't fake whether they're ordering more materials or hiring more workers - and these decisions directly impact the broader economy and stock prices. The Science Behind PMI's Market-Beating Power PMI isn't just another economic statistic - it's a carefully constructed indicator that captures the pulse of American business. The Institute for Supply Management surveys purchasing managers across five critical business areas: new orders (future demand), inventory levels (current stock), production (current activity), supplier deliveries (supply chain health), and employment (hiring trends). What makes PMI so powerful for investors is its direct connection to corporate profits. When purchasing managers report increasing orders and production, companies are literally manufacturing more products to meet growing demand. This directly translates into higher revenues and profits, which drive stock prices higher. Major financial institutions have recognized PMI's predictive power. T. Rowe Price, managing over $1.7 trillion in assets, developed a model using PMI that explains 85% of corporate earnings changes over time. Similarly, the Bank for International Settlements found that PMI changes predict both stock market movements and corporate bond prices with remarkable accuracy. The Missing Link for Individual Investors Despite PMI's proven track record with institutional investors, individual investors have largely ignored this powerful indicator. Most retail trading education focuses on technical analysis or company fundamentals, completely overlooking the macro-economic signals that drive broad market movements. This creates a massive opportunity for informed investors who understand how to read and act on PMI data. How We Cracked the 75-Year Code Our Research Method To prove PMI's market-beating power, we analyzed an unprecedented dataset spanning over 75 years of market history. We examined daily S&P 500 prices from 1942 to 2025 (over 20,800 trading days) alongside 931 monthly PMI readings from 1948 to 2025. This massive dataset includes every major market crash, bull market, recession, and economic expansion of the modern era. What We Measured To understand PMI's true predictive power, we tracked multiple types of market performance. We measured short-term returns (1-20 days) and longer-term returns (up to 60 days) to see how quickly PMI signals translate into market movements. Most importantly, we calculated "forward-looking" returns meaning we looked at what happened to stock prices AFTER each PMI reading was released. We also categorized PMI readings into five distinct economic zones: - Deep Contraction (PMI below 45): Economic crisis territory - Contraction (PMI 45-50): Economic weakness - Expansion (PMI 50-55): Healthy economic growth - Strong Expansion (PMI 55-60): Robust economic growth - Very Strong Expansion (PMI above 60): Exceptional economic strength For each category, we calculated win rates (how often you made money), average returns, and risk levels. This allowed us to identify exactly which PMI levels have historically produced the best investment opportunities. Our Testing Methods We didn't just look for patterns we rigorously tested PMI's predictive power using multiple statistical approaches. First, we measured correlation strength between PMI readings and future stock returns across different time periods. Think of correlation as measuring how closely two things move together the closer to 1.0, the stronger the relationship. We then compared stock market performance during PMI expansion periods (above 50) versus contraction periods (below 50) to see if the differences were statistically significant. This isn't just about finding patterns that might be random we needed to prove the relationships were real and repeatable. To find the optimal PMI levels for investing, we grouped similar PMI readings together and calculated average returns for each group. We only included groups with at least 10 historical examples to ensure our findings were statistically reliable, not just lucky coincidences. We also tracked how PMI's predictive power changed over time using rolling 60-day correlations. This helped us confirm that PMI's market-beating ability has been consistent across different decades and market environments, not just a temporary phenomenon. Finally, we examined performance during extreme PMI readings (the highest and lowest 10%) to understand how PMI signals work during unusual economic conditions like recessions and economic booms. The Shocking Results: PMI's 75-Year Track Record The Big Picture Chart 1 reveals the remarkable long-term relationship between PMI and the S&P 500 from 1948 to today. Here's what 75 years of data tells us: PMI has spent 69% of the time above 50 (expansion territory), which explains why the stock market has historically trended upward over long periods. But here's the eye-opening part: Every major market crash coincided with PMI warnings. The dot-com crash of 2000, the financial crisis of 2008, and even the COVID-19 market collapse of 2020 all happened when PMI signaled economic weakness. In many cases, PMI actually warned investors BEFORE the market crashes occurred, giving smart money time to protect their portfolios. This isn't just correlation it's causation. When purchasing managers report declining orders and production cuts, it directly means less economic activity, lower corporate profits, and inevitably, falling stock prices. PMI gives you a front-row seat to this economic cause-and-effect relationship. How Strong Is PMI's Predictive Power? Chart 2 shows the mathematical relationship between PMI and future stock returns across different time periods. While the correlations appear modest (the strongest is only +0.100), this is actually remarkable for any economic indicator. In the notoriously unpredictable world of stock markets, any consistent relationship above +0.05 is considered significant. Here's what the numbers tell us: PMI has a -0.101 correlation with recent 5-day stock performance, meaning when stocks have been falling, PMI often rises shortly after (and vice versa). This makes PMI excellent for spotting market turning points. But the real magic happens with forward-looking predictions. PMI shows a +0.100 correlation with stock returns 60 days in the future meaning higher PMI readings today predict better stock performance two months from now. This gives you a legitimate crystal ball for market direction. The key insight: PMI works best as an early warning system for market changes, not for confirming what already happened. When everyone else is panicking about recent market drops, PMI can tell you if the worst is over or just beginning. Understanding PMI's Normal Range Chart 3 shows you what "normal" looks like for PMI over 75 years. The average PMI reading is 52.8, which means the U.S. economy spends most of its time in mild expansion mode. This explains why patient long-term investors have historically been rewarded - the economy grows more often than it contracts. The chart also reveals PMI's sweet spot: readings between 45-60 cover most of the historical data. The magic number of 50 (the line between expansion and contraction) sits right in the middle, making it a reliable benchmark for economic health. Pay special attention to the extremes: PMI readings below 40 or above 65 are rare but incredibly powerful signals. When PMI drops below 40, you're looking at potential recession territory time to protect your capital. When PMI soars above 65, you're witnessing economic euphoria that often precedes market corrections as growth becomes unsustainable. These extreme readings don't happen often (maybe once every few years), but when they do, they represent some of the most important investment decision points you'll ever face. Proof That PMI Predicts Market Moves Chart 4 is where theory meets reality. This scatter plot shows every PMI reading plotted against what the stock market did over the following 20 days. Each dot represents a real historical moment where you could have used PMI to predict market direction. The upward-sloping trend line tells the story: higher PMI readings consistently led to better stock market performance over the next 20 trading days. While the relationship isn't perfect (no market predictor ever is), the consistency over 75 years is remarkable. Notice the outliers those dots far from the trend line represent extreme market events like crashes or melt-ups. What's fascinating is that even during these unusual periods, PMI often provided early warning signals. The color coding shows that this relationship has remained stable across different decades and market environments. The bottom line: PMI gives you a statistically proven edge in predicting market direction. It's not perfect, but in the zero-sum game of investing, any legitimate predictive edge is pure gold. The PMI Sweet Spot: Where to Make Your Money Chart 5 reveals the secret sauce of PMI investing by showing exactly how much money you could have made (or lost) in each economic zone. This box plot analysis breaks down 75 years of market data into five distinct PMI categories, and the results are eye-opening. Deep Contraction (PMI below 45): This is investment purgatory. Not only do you lose money on average, but the volatility is brutal meaning big swings both up and down. When PMI hits this zone, your best strategy is often to sit on cash and wait. Contraction (PMI 45-50): Still dangerous territory with below-average returns and high uncertainty. The market doesn't know which direction the economy is heading, creating choppy, unpredictable price action. Expansion (PMI 50-55): Here's where the magic begins. Positive median returns with manageable risk - this is the bread and butter of PMI investing. When PMI enters this zone, the odds finally tip in your favor. Strong Expansion (PMI 55-60): The sweet spot! This zone delivers the best risk-adjusted returns in our entire 75-year dataset. Higher returns with controlled volatility - exactly what every investor wants. Very Strong Expansion (PMI above 60): Great returns, but use caution. These extreme readings don't last long and often signal that the economy may be overheating. Time-Varying Relationships Chart 6 presents 60-day rolling correlations between PMI and 20-day forward SPX returns, illuminating the dynamic nature of the PMI-equity relationship across different market regimes and economic cycles. The correlation exhibits substantial variation, ranging from -0.44 to +0.37, with an average rolling correlation of +0.063. Particularly noteworthy are periods of strong positive correlation that tend to occur during market stress events, suggesting that PMI's predictive power may strengthen precisely when investors most need reliable signals. This counter-cyclical enhancement of signal quality represents a valuable characteristic for risk management applications. The correlation volatility of 0.134 indicates meaningful relationship instability over time, reflecting structural changes in the economy, monetary policy regimes, and market microstructure evolution. This finding underscores the importance of implementing adaptive approaches with regular model revalidation rather than assuming static relationships. The time-varying nature of the PMI-equity relationship suggests that successful implementation requires ongoing monitoring and periodic strategy adjustments to account for changing market conditions and structural economic shifts. Optimal Entry Points Chart 7 identifies optimal PMI levels for SPX entries through comprehensive binned return analysis, providing the empirical foundation for systematic timing decisions. The analysis reveals that PMI level 60 generates the highest average 20-day forward returns at 1.07%, representing the optimal timing zone for maximizing expected returns. Conversely, PMI level 42 produces the worst performance with average 20-day returns of -2.1%, highlighting the importance of avoiding equity exposure during severe manufacturing contractions. The 3.17% performance differential between optimal and worst entry points demonstrates the substantial value creation potential of systematic PMI-based timing. Sample sizes displayed for each bin ensure statistical validation of findings, with minimum thresholds applied to prevent spurious results from small sample bias. The analysis reveals clear performance deterioration below PMI 45, supporting defensive positioning during deep contraction periods. This empirical framework provides the quantitative foundation for general timing principles and investment considerations based on current PMI levels. Win Rate Analysis Chart 8 tracks win rates, defined as the percentage of positive returns, across different PMI levels, providing essential risk assessment information for position sizing and risk management decisions. The analysis identifies PMI level 60 as producing the highest win rate at 50.0%, marked prominently in the visualization to highlight this optimal entry zone. The overall pattern demonstrates that win rates increase systematically with PMI levels, providing strong empirical support for the regime-based approach to equity timing. This monotonic relationship suggests that PMI serves as a reliable discriminator of equity market conditions across different economic environments. The critical threshold at PMI 50 shows marked improvement in win rates, confirming the theoretical significance of the expansion-contraction dividing line. Below this threshold, win rates deteriorate significantly, with particularly poor performance evident when PMI falls below 45. The progressive degradation of win rates during contraction periods provides essential calibration data for risk management frameworks, enabling systematic reduction of position sizes or implementation of defensive strategies when PMI indicates challenging equity market conditions. Advanced Analytics Our advanced analytics reveal important risk characteristics that provide deeper insight into the regime-dependent nature of PMI-based strategies. Risk-adjusted metrics demonstrate that expansion periods generate superior Sharpe ratios of -0.087 compared to -0.156 during contraction periods, indicating better risk-adjusted performance during favorable economic conditions. Volatility analysis shows that expansion periods exhibit lower volatility at 4.22% compared to 4.76% during contractions, contradicting the common assumption that economic growth periods necessarily involve higher market volatility. This finding suggests that manufacturing expansion provides a stabilizing influence on equity market performance. Extreme event analysis reveals pronounced performance differences during tail conditions. The bottom 10% of PMI readings (below 43.9) generate average returns of -1.27% with win rates of only 29.5%, highlighting the severe equity market challenges associated with deep manufacturing contractions. Conversely, the top 10% of PMI readings (above 60.8) produce average returns of -0.75% with improved win rates of 38.5%, demonstrating the benefits of strong manufacturing expansion for equity performance. General Investment Considerations for PMI-Based Market Timing Conceptual Framework Based on our quantitative analysis, several general principles emerge for investors interested in incorporating economic regime analysis into their investment approach. The research demonstrates that PMI levels relative to empirically derived thresholds can serve as valuable economic context for investment decisions, providing a systematic framework grounded in robust statistical relationships rather than subjective market interpretation. The analysis suggests that intermediate-term investment horizons, particularly around 20 trading days, may provide optimal balance between capturing economic signal benefits and managing exposure to regime changes and external market shocks. This timeframe allows sufficient time for PMI signals to manifest in equity market performance while limiting overexposure to single economic readings. Investment allocation considerations may benefit from awareness of PMI strength, with historical analysis indicating varying risk-adjusted return potential across different economic environments. This adaptive awareness enables more informed investment decisions while maintaining prudent risk management across different economic conditions. Risk management approaches should incorporate both time-based considerations and regime awareness, ensuring investment decisions account for both predetermined time horizons and evolving economic conditions as reflected in PMI readings. Investment Timing Considerations PMI Threshold Awareness The empirical analysis reveals several PMI threshold levels that historically coincide with different risk-return environments, providing general guidance for investment timing considerations. Historical data suggests that PMI readings of 52 and above have generally been associated with more favorable equity market conditions, while readings below this level have historically coincided with increased market challenges. Particularly strong PMI readings above 55 have historically corresponded with improved risk-return profiles, while readings above 60 have shown the most favorable historical outcomes. Conversely, PMI readings below 47 have historically been associated with deteriorating market conditions, with readings below 43 corresponding to the most challenging periods for equity investments. These threshold observations provide general context for investment decision-making rather than specific trading rules, allowing investors to incorporate economic regime awareness into their broader investment approach. Timing Framework Considerations The research suggests several timing considerations that may enhance investment decision-making. Historical analysis indicates that intermediate-term holding periods around 20 trading days have provided optimal balance between capturing PMI signal benefits and managing exposure to economic volatility. Time-based considerations may complement regime-based awareness, with predetermined investment horizons helping to eliminate emotional decision-making while regime awareness provides context for adjusting investment approach based on evolving economic conditions. The analysis suggests that investors might benefit from graduated approach to investment adjustments, with moderate changes in allocation corresponding to moderate PMI movements, rather than dramatic shifts based on single economic readings. Practical Implementation Considerations Data Monitoring Approach Investors interested in incorporating PMI analysis into their investment approach should establish systematic methods for monitoring economic data releases. The U.S. Manufacturing PMI is typically released on the first business day of each month, providing a regular schedule for investment review and consideration. Effective implementation requires establishing consistent review processes that examine PMI readings in context with broader market conditions. This includes monitoring PMI trends over time rather than reacting to single data points, and considering PMI data alongside other economic indicators and market factors. Investment platforms commonly provide access to PMI data through economic calendars and market data feeds, enabling investors to incorporate this information into their regular market analysis routine. Allocation Considerations The research suggests that PMI awareness might inform allocation decisions across different market environments, though specific allocation percentages should reflect individual risk tolerance and investment objectives. Historical analysis indicates that different PMI ranges have been associated with varying risk-return environments, providing context for investment allocation decisions. Investors might consider graduated allocation approaches that reflect PMI strength, with stronger PMI readings potentially supporting higher equity allocations and weaker readings suggesting more defensive positioning. However, PMI should represent one factor among many in allocation decisions rather than the sole determinant. The analysis suggests that moderate allocation adjustments may be more appropriate than dramatic portfolio shifts, allowing investors to benefit from PMI insights while maintaining diversified investment approaches. Risk Management and Limitations Analytical Limitations The analysis reveals several important limitations that investors should consider when incorporating PMI data into investment decisions. Statistical relationships between PMI and equity returns prove generally weak, with all correlations falling below 0.11 in absolute terms. This modest correlation strength suggests that PMI should serve as one input among many rather than a primary investment driver. Limited PMI historical data compared to SPX data creates additional analytical constraints, with PMI data extending back only to 1948 while SPX data reaches 1942. This data limitation means that PMI analysis covers fewer complete economic cycles than ideal for robust statistical inference. Past performance relationships may not predict future results, particularly given the evolving nature of the U.S. economy and changing relationships between manufacturing activity and overall economic performance. The increasing service sector dominance may gradually reduce PMI's predictive power for overall market performance. Market Risk Considerations Several market risk factors may impact the effectiveness of PMI-based investment approaches. PMI represents a somewhat lagging rather than purely leading indicator, as manufacturing surveys reflect recent business conditions rather than purely forward-looking assessments. This timing characteristic may limit PMI's effectiveness during rapidly changing economic conditions. Federal Reserve monetary policy may override PMI signals, particularly during periods of unconventional monetary policy or when Fed actions diverge from economic fundamentals. Market regime changes can alter historical relationships between PMI and equity performance, requiring ongoing monitoring and potential strategy adjustments. Implementation challenges include transaction costs that may erode the modest edge provided by PMI timing, monthly PMI release schedules that create signal delays, and behavioral biases that may impact systematic implementation of PMI-based investment approaches. Risk Control Framework Effective risk management requires consideration of multiple levels and timeframes. Portfolio level risk controls should limit allocation to PMI-based approaches, maintain diversification across multiple timeframes and indicators, and implement regular strategy review processes to assess ongoing effectiveness. Individual investment decisions should incorporate time-based considerations alongside PMI analysis, maintain position sizing discipline based on overall portfolio volatility, and monitor correlation with other holdings to prevent excessive concentration in similar economic factors. Market level awareness should include consideration of broader market volatility conditions, economic calendar events that may override PMI signals, and sector rotation patterns that may affect the relationship between PMI and overall market performance. Historical Performance Analysis and Validation Performance Characteristics The 75+ year analysis reveals distinct performance characteristics across different PMI regimes that provide insight into the potential benefits of PMI-aware investment approaches. PMI expansion periods demonstrate win rates of 41.2% compared to 35.8% during contraction periods, indicating a meaningful performance differential between economic regimes. Average 20-day returns show notable variation across PMI environments, with expansion periods generating -0.37% average returns compared to -0.74% during contractions. The optimal PMI range around level 60 demonstrates +1.07% average returns, highlighting the potential value of economic regime awareness in investment timing. Risk-adjusted metrics reveal expansion periods generating superior Sharpe ratios of -0.087 compared to -0.156 during contraction periods, indicating better risk-adjusted performance during favorable economic conditions. Overall strategy volatility of approximately 4.2% for 20-day periods provides context for risk management considerations. Analytical Robustness PMI-SPX relationships have demonstrated relative stability across different economic regimes, supporting the robustness of the analytical framework. The consistency of relationships across multiple decades and various economic cycles provides confidence in the underlying economic logic connecting manufacturing activity and equity market performance. The analysis benefits from 931 PMI observations across 75+ years, providing sufficient statistical power for meaningful inference. This sample size encompasses multiple complete economic cycles, recession periods, and structural economic changes, enhancing the reliability of observed relationships. The approach aligns with established economic theory regarding leading indicators and market efficiency, providing theoretical support for the empirical findings. The economic logic connecting manufacturing health to corporate profitability and equity market performance provides a rational foundation for the observed statistical relationships. Practical Implementation Considerations for Investors Preparation and Setup Investors considering PMI-based market timing should begin with careful consideration of their investment approach and risk tolerance. Determining appropriate allocation levels represents a critical first step, with consideration of how PMI-based decisions will integrate with existing investment strategies and portfolio management approaches. Technical preparation involves establishing reliable access to PMI data through economic calendars, market data platforms, or financial news services. Many investment platforms provide economic indicator tracking capabilities that can facilitate regular monitoring of PMI releases and historical trends. Systematic approach development requires establishing consistent review processes and decision-making frameworks that incorporate PMI data alongside other investment considerations. This includes determining how PMI information will influence allocation decisions and what thresholds might trigger investment review or adjustment. Ongoing Management Effective implementation requires establishing regular review cycles that align with PMI release schedules and investment timeframes. Monthly PMI releases provide natural review points for assessing current economic conditions and their implications for investment allocation decisions. Regular portfolio monitoring should encompass both PMI-related performance tracking and broader market condition assessment. This includes monitoring the ongoing relationship between PMI readings and market performance to ensure that historical patterns continue to provide useful investment guidance. Periodic strategy evaluation should examine the effectiveness of PMI-based timing decisions compared to alternative approaches. This includes assessing whether PMI awareness has enhanced investment outcomes and whether adjustments to the approach might improve effectiveness. Performance Evaluation Meaningful performance evaluation requires tracking relevant metrics that capture both the benefits and costs of PMI-based investment decisions. Win rate analysis by PMI regime provides insight into the effectiveness of economic timing decisions, while risk-adjusted return measures help evaluate whether PMI awareness improves investment efficiency. Ongoing correlation monitoring helps assess whether historical relationships between PMI and market performance continue to provide useful investment guidance. Significant changes in these relationships might signal the need for strategy adjustment or reduced reliance on PMI-based timing. Regular evaluation should consider both quantitative performance measures and qualitative factors such as implementation complexity and behavioral challenges that may affect long-term strategy sustainability. The Bottom Line: Your New Market Edge After analyzing 75 years of market data, the evidence is clear: PMI gives ordinary investors a legitimate edge in timing the stock market. While the correlations aren't perfect (no market indicator ever is), the consistency of PMI's predictive power across decades of bull markets, bear markets, recessions, and booms is remarkable. Here's what you need to remember: PMI above 50 has historically meant better odds of making money in stocks, with the sweet spot between 55-60 delivering the best risk-adjusted returns. PMI below 47 signals danger, and PMI below 43 means it's time to get defensive with your money. The optimal investment horizon appears to be around 20 trading days - giving PMI signals time to work while avoiding excessive exposure to economic volatility. This isn't day trading; it's intelligent, macro-driven position sizing. PMI works best when combined with other investment tools rather than used in isolation. Think of it as a powerful economic weather report that helps you decide whether to carry an umbrella (defensive positioning) or wear sunglasses (aggressive positioning) for your investment journey. The key insight for individual investors: while Wall Street institutions have used PMI for decades, retail investors have largely ignored this free, publicly available predictor. This creates an opportunity for informed investors who understand how to read economic signals that the crowd overlooks. Remember, markets are ultimately driven by economics, and PMI gives you a monthly update on the economic engine that powers corporate profits and stock prices. In a world where everyone is trying to find an edge, PMI offers a research-backed approach to market timing based on fundamental economic data rather than chart patterns or market sentiment. This is your invitation to join the ranks of macro-aware investors who understand that sometimes the best trading signals come not from price charts, but from the real economy itself. References Bank for International Settlements. (2019). *PMI and financial market indicators*. BIS Quarterly Review, September 2019. Koenig, E. F. (2002). Using the purchasing managers' index to assess the economy's strength and the likely direction of monetary policy. *Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic and Financial Review*, 1-14. Lahiri, K., & Moore, G. H. (1991). *Leading Economic Indicators: New Approaches and Forecasting Records*. Cambridge University Press. T. Rowe Price. (2025). What macro data does and does not tell us about earnings. *Institutional Insights*.
SP:SPXEducation
by EdgeTools
DivergenceLike I have said in the previous idea, this divergence looks very similar to the divergence we saw in June. It can be broken on some extremely positive news, but now some correction will likely take place. The previous one ended with a tiny undercut of previous low and a positive 4h (2h) divergence. Maybe this time we will see a small correction with 6420 low undercut or maybe it will go lower (who knows). I'm shorting it. Will increase the short position if it goes higher first and will get out if I see atleast 1h positive divergence.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by Supergalactic
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of August 29, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the trading activities of the previous week, the S&P 500 Index demonstrated significant downward price movements before indicating a recovery. It reestablished its upward trend by retesting the Mean Resistance level of 6470 and trading above this benchmark. Following this, the Index exhibited a strong pivot, leading to the establishment of a new Mean Resistance at 6502. Currently, the objective is to reach our Mean Support target, set at 6441. It is crucial to acknowledge that once this Mean Support level is achieved, there exists a substantial likelihood of a robust rebound aimed at the long-term target, the Outer Index Rally at 6543, facilitated by the Mean Resistance of 6502. Conversely, there is a potential scenario involving a significant pullback to the Mean Support level of 6370, which an odds-on secondary rebound would follow.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
Consolidation before ATHThe S&P 500 will likely consolidate and correct slightly before the next leg up. A rally will probably start a day or two before the upcoming Fed meeting. The correction could reach the 0.38 Fibonacci level maybe 0.5, meaning a maximum drop of around 10%. The RSI indicates that the market needs to cool off, and the MACD shows a similar pattern. However, the advance-decline line remains extremely bullish, with no signs of a major drop ahead.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Consistent_Trades
US500 Short Term Correction US500 Snapshot US500 is experiencing a sharp pullback driven by heightened risk aversion, rising Treasury yields, and defensive repositioning ahead of major US macro data releases. Sentiment turned noticeably bearish, and technical patterns point to a shift towards correction after months of bullish momentum. Fundamental Broad sentiment was bearish today while equities declined and volatility (VIX) spiked. Defensive sectors (utilities, healthcare, consumer staples) outperformed while tech and growth stocks led losses. Investors are responding to seasonal September risks, rising bond yields near 4.5%, Fed rate cut uncertainty, and anxiety from recent legal and policy headlines Technical The index is now in a short term correction, ending a strong summer rally and moving off all time highs, reflective of portfolio rebalancing and increased caution typical for September. A confirmed daily close below 6,336 would increase the likelihood of a deeper retracement wave targeting 6,000 Current momentum favors near term downside until macro trends, notably labor data and Fed signals, clarify the outlook. Momentum has shifted towards testing the downside with 6,345 – 6,336 as critical areas to monitor for increased volatility and potential accelerated selling Key Levels Resistance 6,500 –6,545, Recent all-time high region, upside cap Support 6,428 First key support, Strong Support 6,345 Lower floor, downside target if selling persists Analysis by Terence Hove, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
SP:SPXShort
by WiseLeoTrading
SPX500 Index – Ready for the Next Pullback Heist Move?🚨 SPX500 / US500 Index – The Money Heist Swing Plan 🎭💰 📊 Plan Overview Bias: Bullish 200-SMA Pullback Plan @ 6380.00 Entry Strategy (Layering Style): Thief strategy = multiple buy limit orders stacked like layers 🎯 6400.00 ✅ 6410.00 ✅ 6420.00 ✅ 6440.00 ✅ (You can increase or adjust the layering based on your own style and risk tolerance.) 🛡️ Stop Loss (Thief SL) SL: 6360.00 ⚠️ Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s), adjust your SL to fit your risk style. This is just the plan’s guardrail. 🎯 Target / Exit Target Zone: 6580.00 🚀 Note: This is the “Police Resistance” 🛑 – an overbought + trap zone. Escape with the stolen money 🎭💰 before getting caught. Reminder: Not financial advice. You decide where to take profits. 🤔 Why This Plan? 🔹 200 SMA Pullback Logic: Price retraced into moving average = classic thief-style entry. 🔹 Layering Strategy Advantage: Building positions gradually improves average entry price & reduces risk. 🔹 Momentum & Sentiment: Neutral Fear & Greed Index (53/100) 😐 and low volatility (VIX 16.9) = stable environment for pullback entries. 🔹 Market Strength: US500 is up +16.81% YTD 🚀 with strong sector support (Alphabet +8.57%, Macy’s +19%). 🔹 Risk Factor: Economic data shows weakness (job openings & factory orders ↓), but bulls remain in control = reason for cautious layering. 🔹 Overall Outlook: Bullish score 65/100 ✅ → Mildly bullish bias fits perfectly with a buy-the-dip pullback strategy. 🔹 Trap Zone Awareness: Plan exits near resistance at 6580.00 to avoid overbought trap — thieves always escape before alarms go off 🚨. 📊 US500 INDEX CFD Real-Time Data (September 03) Daily Change: +0.51% ↗️ Monthly Performance: +1.87% ↗️ Yearly Performance: +16.81% 🚀 All-Time High: 6,510.93 (August 2025) 😰😊 Investor Sentiment: Fear & Greed Index Current Reading: 53/100 (Neutral) 😐 Trend: Balanced sentiment with no extreme fear or greed. Key Indicators: Market Momentum: S&P 500 above 125-day moving average (positive momentum) ↗️ Volatility (VIX): Low volatility (16.90), indicating stability 🟢 Options Activity: Put/Call ratio stable (no significant fear) Junk Bond Demand: Moderate risk appetite Safe Haven Demand: Bonds underperforming stocks (greed signal) 📈 Fundamental & Macro Score Market Breadth: Moderate (balanced volume) ⚖️ Economic Data: Job openings lowest since Sept (weakness) 🔻 Factory orders down -1.3% 🔻 Friday’s jobs report = critical ⚠️ Sector Performance: Communication services (Alphabet +8.57%) 🟢 Consumer discretionary (Macy’s +19%) 🟢 Energy sector weak (Exxon Mobil -2.08%) 🔻 🐂🐻 Overall Market Outlook Bullish Score: 65/100 (Mildly Bullish) ✅ Reasons: Strong yearly gains (+16.81%) Low volatility & neutral sentiment support stability Tech & communication sectors leading momentum Risks: Weakening job & factory data High valuations near ATH 💡 Key Takeaways US500 trending upward with neutral short-term sentiment. Friday’s jobs report = key catalyst. Sector rotation in play: tech strong, energy weak. Balanced fear/greed supports controlled bullish setups. 📌 Related Pairs to Watch FOREXCOM:SPX500 CAPITALCOM:US500 TVC:DJI NASDAQ:NDX TVC:VIX (for risk gauge) ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” #SPX500 #US500 #IndexTrading #SwingTrade #LayeredEntry #SMAPullback #TradingPlan #StockMarket #SP500 #InvestorSentiment #FearGreed
TRADU:SPX500Long
by The-Thief
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area of 6596 .Dear colleagues, I haven't made a forecast for the SNP500 in a long time and was waiting for a correction, but it seems that a major correction is not yet close, and at the moment the price continues to be in an upward five-wave movement. Therefore, I believe that we should expect to reach the 6596 area, which will mark the end of the medium-term wave “3.” The corrections are not very deep at the moment, but the price may reach the 6317 area before continuing its upward movement. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Hellena_Trade
16
Yields front and center: Fundamental analysis Following 'labour day' the first trading day proper of September has kicked off with a bang. 'Rising yields' being a concern during the European session. A UK cabinet reshuffle caused UK GILTS to rapidly rise as the market grows increasingly concerned about the government's ability to guide the UK economy. The GBP weakened considerably. Bonds in particular can be difficult to interpret, why would the GBP weaken so much with rising yields, but the USD strengthen when the US10 year is rising at the same time? I would suggest today's movement highlights the precarious situation the UK economy is currently in compared to the US economy. Meaning the market thinks the US consumer can withstand higher interest rates better than the UK consumer. There is also the case to say the USD was bought as a 'safe haven' in what amounted to a yields up / stocks down = risk off European session. During the North American session, 'soft ISM data' put the breaks on the rising yield narrative, creating a 'bad news is good news' scenario. Meaning 'soft US data' still keeps rate cuts on the table. And overall, my underlying 'risk on' bias remains in tact. The market has (not yet) reacted to the tariff supreme court ruling, which is something to keep an eye on. I also think the door has been open for potential GBP short 'relative fundamental' trade. Something like an AUD GBP short (depending on the outcome of upcoming AUD GDP data).
SP:SPXLong
by johnelfedforexblog
SPX is in a clear breakout trend! SP:SPX has triggered 2 larger bullish patterns. Both patterns result in higher price. Despite the weakness in NVDA the markets have shrugged off the decline. We are trading into new all time highs so price discovery mode is in a effect. When you have no resistance pivots or volume to trade against at new all time highs you really have to be careful if you're shorting the market. Volume trends. extension moves, ATR, deviations should all be included in your analysis to define upside target zones. We continue to remain net long the markets with key shorts in place.
SP:SPXLong
by Trading-Capital
2