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Appreciating a trendlineHey all, I've seen many people overanalyze trendlines and pull lines out of their rear ends when looking at charts. Trendlines should only matter when they're obvious- this trendline is obvious. Make of this trendline what you will and play it however you see fit. An example of how I was playing this- I was shorting MOS a few weeks ago and closed out of my shorts when it tagged the trendline; I'm not playing this name right now, but I do think this trendline will present clear opportunities in the future, and I wanted to share it for you all to see.
NYSE:MOS
by MichaelEugen1
MOS ( Global Fertilizer /Agricultural ) Breaks outAs can be seen on the daily chart, MOS has broken out of a descending megaphone pattern into a good uptrend which rates 7/8 by Minervini trend analysis. The RSI indicator shows increasing strength as the RSI rises above its Ichimoku cloud. I see this as an excellent swing-long setup given the strong fundamentals of this fertilizer company in the face of the current global macroeconomic picture ( See the link below) A market peer in the ag sector is IPI.
NYSE:MOSLong
by AwesomeAvani
MOS Weekly TA Neutral BullishMOSUSD Weekly neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 55% MOS, 45% Cash . *Fertilizer and grain prices are going down as supply chains ease due to a deal between Russia, Belarus and Ukraine that allows sanctions on fertilizer exports from Belarus and Russia to be lifted in exchange for Russia allowing Ukraine to resume grain exports from the Black Sea through Turkey. However, this could be short-lived considering: a) it's a deal with Russia who literally bombed a port in Odessa the day after signing the deal and b) that the world's second largest producer of fertilizer behind Russia (China) is likely to continue suspending exports of phosphates for the rest of 2022 . Although Mosaic's earnings and revenue were both up on the quarter they missed consensus estimates, while competitor Nutrien beat both estimates and had record earnings in the previous quarter; however, Mosaic expects revenue to continue to be strong for the remainder of 2022.* Price is currently trending up at $52.50 after breaking above the descending trendline from 04/18/22, it also broke above the 50 MA and $49 resistance and will need to close above it this week in order to reestablish support. Volume has been shrinking for the previous seven sessions (indicative of a potential pending breakout/breakdown) and is currently on track to favor buyers for five consecutive sessions if it can close this week in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $74.55, this margin is bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending sideways at 50 after bouncing off the uptrend line from September 2015 at 40 support; the next resistance is at 53. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 39 as it is still technically testing 29 resistance. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending sideways at -0.50 as it continues to form a trough, in order for a bullish crossover it would have to break above 1.10; the next resistance is 1.75. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 23 as Price is attempting to reverse the downtrend, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to establish support at $50 then the next likely target is a test of $56 resistance . However, if Price breaks down back below $50 support , it will likely retest the uptrend line from March 2020 at ~$45 . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $50 .
NYSE:MOS
by dailytaguy
1
THE MOSAIC COMPANY- POSSIBLE BREAKOUTThe Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) is the world’s leading integrated producer of concentrated phosphate and potash and one of the largest north American fertilizer producers. Fertilizer costs have roughly doubled from a year ago as the war in Ukraine disrupted the flow of supplies from Russia. This was a game changer for The Mosaic Company and the stock price reached almost $80. The expectations for the upcoming earning report today are strong with 3.99 EPS and 5.68B of revenue. We are looking for a breakout of the $54 resistance level. The next major resistance is located at $62 or approximately $8 possible return Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
NYSE:MOSLong
by legacyFXofficial
1
MOS Daily TA Cautiously BearishMOS Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 15% MOS, 85% Cash. *Putin continues his quest to annex all of Eastern Ukraine and has now concentrated attacks in Lysychans'k which is one of the last Ukrainian strongholds in Luhansk (the fall of this city will all but guarantee that Eastern Ukraine belongs to Russia). President Biden announced today the US will be establishing a V Corps (US Army) operation headquarters in Poland and has significantly boosted military presence/aid on NATO's Eastern Flank. Turkey lifted their veto on Sweden and Finland joining NATO , expanding NATO's presence in Europe. Potash and phosphate prices remain high but have come down a bit recently due to producers like Nutrien vowing to boost production (potash specifically) in response to the supply chain interruptions in Russia, Belarus and Ukraine.* Price is currently testing the 200 MA as support at ~$48 after briefly breaking above it to touch $51.50 in yesterday's session; this is likely a rejection at the 200 MA as resistance but there is still a chance that Price can bounce here considering that it is currently breaking out of the descending trendline from 04/14/22. Additionally, Price is currently defending the uptrend line from March 2020 (~$45); this is an important trendline because if it breaks below it would suggest that the uptrend was due in large part to QE and a near-0% rate environment. Volume is Moderate (low) and is currently on track to favor sellers for a second consecutive session. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $51.36, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending down at 38 after being rejected by the descending trendline from 03/04/22 at 40.33 resistance. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently testing 80.49 resistance with no signs of peak formation. MACD remains bearish but is currently trending up at -3.33 as it attempts to break above -3.20 and form a bullish crossover; the next resistance is at -2.52 and support at -4.11. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 30 as Price is attempting to push higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price is able to defend support at the 200 MA (~$48) then it will likely continue up to test $55.79 minor resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from March 2020 at ~$45 before potentially heading lower to retest $42.50 support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $48.78.
NYSE:MOS
by dailytaguy
3
MOS Daily TA Cautiously BearishMOS Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 10% MOS, 90% Cash. * Bad Vlad and Russian fertilizer producers are the top benefiters of fertilizer prices testing ATHs set during the previous recession in 2008 (yes I just implied that we are currently in a recession, it will become clearer soon with increased layoffs and earnings downturns). Grain, oil and fertilizer trade routes from Russia (and through Ukraine) continue to be disrupted by a mixture of sanctions and war as the global economic order continues to reorganize; Russia continues to find "friendly" trade partners that are willing to pay these higher prices. The rest of the world is now reeling from the effect this is having on gas/diesel prices because the transport industry (which is already seeing a labor shortage) is having to pass these prices on to the producers who pass this on to this distributors who pass this on to consumers -- who are currently experiencing reduced purchasing power and insufficient wage growth. This and China's "Zero Covid Policy" have exacerbated the rise in global growth destruction starting in 2019 (Covid-19 pandemic). Additionally, economies are starting to see contraction and, aside from Japan and Russia, central banks have been increasingly hawkish and committed to reducing global inflation by helping to weaken demand through monetary policy. All that said, we're now starting to see the already strange combo of low unemployment and labor shortages turn into lay-offs. Though unclear as to whether or not this will positively influence the driver workforce, it's hard to see reduced demand lead to more truck drivers unless the freight companies want to pay them more. Should be interestingly sad to see stockpiles of grain, oil and fertilizer combined with disproportionately high prices.* Price is currently testing the descending trendline from 04/18/22 as support at ~$49.50 and is on the verge of testing the 200 MA at ~$48.20 as support for the first time since December 2021. Volume remains Moderate (High) and is currently on track to favor sellers for two consecutive sessions if it closes today in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $59.13, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending down at 34 after being rejected by 40.33 resistance, the next support is at 25.31. Stochastic is currently regressing to a bearish crossover at 16, the next support is max bottom and resistance at 39.11. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at -3 with no signs of trough formation; if it loses -2.52 support it will likely test -4.88 minor support. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 26 as Price continues to fall, this is bearish. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely aim to retest 55.79 minor resistance. However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely formally test the 200 MA at ~$48.20 before potentially retesting the uptrend line from March 2020 (~$45) for the first time since January 2022. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $51.52.
NYSE:MOS
by dailytaguy
$MOS Stage analysisMosaic beautiful textbook stage analysis chart. Went into into Stage 2 and ripped from 15-20 zone to a high of 79.28. Was this the "climatic top" and now going into distribution and stage 3 ? As of now, MOS is barely hanging on to 30 week MA and flashing warning signs. Technically it may still see more upside and continue to new highs, however now trading below the 10 week MA which is turning down and recent market weakness it appears Mosaic is now in Stage 3 distribution. For the bulls, Price needs to reclaim the 10 week MA and close above 62 before I begin to think this bull run is still on. For the shorts, I'd be looking to target 47 first PT followed by 30 zone to cover. Watching for a bounce to 60 zone for good short entry adding upon confirmation and further adds with close below the 30wkMA. Cheers
NYSE:MOS
by FriscoTrades
1
MOS/USD Daily TA Neutral BearishMOS/USD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. * Fed minutes were released today and confirms that the Fed is committed to two more rate hikes in June and July of at least 50 bps with potential for another 50-75 bp hike in September, and that they will sell mortgage backed securities (rather than let them roll over) if necessary as a means of reducing their balance sheet. Equity markets are currently responding positively but this could be short-lived. Additionally, to address the global food shortage, last week the U.N. proposed a plan for Russia to unblock grain exports from Ukraine through the Black Sea in exchange for reducing Western sanctions on fertilizer exports from Russia and Belarus; considering that Russia has found willing buyers of their fertilizer at higher price points, this is unlikely to pass anytime soon.* Recommended ratio: 40% MOS, 60% cash. Price is currently breaking down out of the uptrend line from 01/24/22 but is still technically testing it as support at ~$60. Volume remains high (moderate) and alternating between buyers and sellers every other day for what is now twelve consecutive sessions; this is indicative of potential consolidation. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $66 which currently coincides with the 50 MA, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 45.48 but is still technically testing 40.33 support; if it is able to establish support here it will likely test 58.12 resistance. Stochastic crossed over bullish in today's session and is currently trending up at 59; the next resistance is at 80.49 and support at 39.11. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending sideways at -1.65 as it continues to hover just below the Signal line (-1.54); if it is able to break out above -1.54 it would be a bullish crossover. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 19 as Price continues to fall, this is mildly bearish. If Price is able to reclaim support at the uptrend line from 01/24/22 (~$60) this would also imply that it has broken out of the descending trendline from 04/18/22 and would likely prompt a retest of $64.22 resistance. However, if Price continues to break down here then it will likely retest $55.79 minor support before potentially testing the 200 MA (for the first time since 12/01/21) at ~$46.28. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $60.40.
NYSE:MOS
by dailytaguy
MOS/USD Daily TA Cautiously BearishMOS/USD Daily cautiously bearish. *USD bouncing back today as equity markets plunge lower.* Recommended ratio: 25% MOS, 75% cash. Price is currently trending down at $58 and is still technically testing the uptrend line from 01/24/22 at $59.50. Volume remains moderate and fairly balanced between buyer and sellers over the past nine sessions; though premature, this is indicative of consolidation. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $66.33 (coincides with the 50 MA). RSI is currently trending down and testing 40.33 support. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending down at 53.04; the next support is at 39.11. MACD remains bearish after being denied a bullish crossover at -1.32 and is currently trending down at -1.73; the next support is at -0.94. ADX is currently trending sideways at 18.54 as Price is defending a critical support at the uptrend line from 01/24/22; if ADX starts trending back up as Price falls, this would be bearish. If Price continues to fall here and therefore breaks out of the uptrend line from 01/24/22, then the next likely target is a retest of $55.79 minor support. However, if Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest $64.22 resistance. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $60.
NYSE:MOS
by dailytaguy
2