Snap, Inc. Class A Stock Forum (SWB:1SI)

10 hours ago

I dont even fucking give a shit about those insider sells, can tradingview stop deepthroating us with those irrelevant news

OG_RED

yesterday

Yesterday I was on the edge of buying calls. doubling down on top my shares. Not perfectly lucky, but hey, good enough.

Kid_poker

5 days ago

The Snap Inc. (SNAP) Investment Thesis: The Asymmetric “Call Option”

1. Extreme Valuation Disconnect (The Floor)

The market currently values Snap effectively as a “dying” asset, creating a massive discrepancy in Price-Per-User.
• Meta: Trades at ~$420 per user (Market Cap / Total Users).
• Snap: Trades at ~$17 per user.

Even acknowledging Meta’s superior monetization, a 25x valuation gap is irrational for a platform with ~900 million MAU. You are buying a massive, sticky Gen Z/Alpha user base for pennies on the dollar. The downside is capped by the sheer strategic value of this audience; it is nearly impossible to build a 900M-user network from scratch today.

2. The “Free” Hardware Catalyst (The Specs)
The current stock price reflects zero expectation for the 2026 Consumer Spectacles.
• The Thesis: The market treats Snap solely as a struggling ad business.
• The Upside: If Snap sells even 2–3 million units (let alone 10M), it adds billions in revenue and forces a “tech innovator” re-rating (multiple expansion from 2.5x to 5x+).
• Conclusion: You are paying for the ad business and getting the AR hardware potential as a free call option.

3. Perplexity Integration

The integration of Perplexity shifts Snapchat from a “chat toy” to a utility engine. By embedding high-quality AI answers directly into the camera and chat, Snap increases time-spent and intent-based ad inventory. This directly attacks the monetization gap between them and Meta, providing the “fundamental” fuel to support the stock while waiting for the hardware breakout.

4. Financial Fortress: Debt & Funding Reality

Contrary to the “imminent bankruptcy” bear case, Snap has actively fortified its balance sheet to survive until the AR payoff.
• Cash Position: Snap holds ~$3.0 Billion in cash/marketable securities as of Q3 2025. This is a massive runway that prevents dilution.[investor.snap +1]
• Debt Management: They have proactively pushed their debt wall out. In August 2025, they repurchased older 2026/2027 convertible notes and issued new senior notes that don’t mature until 2034. The immediate “debt crisis” is a myth; they have bought themselves a decade of runway.

5. The Silent Revenue Engine: Snap+ (ARR)

While the market obsesses over volatile ad rates, Snap has quietly built a massive subscription business that covers its R&D burn.

• Subscriber Growth: ~16 Million subscribers (Q3 2025).
• Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR): At $4/month, this generates $768 Million in high-margin ARR.
• Impact: This revenue stream alone nearly covers the interest on their debt, meaning the ad business doesn’t need to be perfect for the company to survive. It stabilizes the floor while you wait for the hardware “moonshot.”

Summary

This is a classic venture-style bet in public markets: limited downside (valuation floor 7USD a share is supported by unique assets/users and stabilized by $750M+ in subscription ARR) with exponential upside if the 2026 hardware launch succeeds. You aren’t betting on Snap beating Meta; you are betting on the market realizing Snap isn’t dead.