Impressive strength in ANF over the past week, or so. I am using this to take profits on my last (and lowest priced) 1/3 of my position. I definitely hope to buy back on weakness.
ANF Today (10/20/25) - Lowest close on the daily timeframe since 11/2023. We're currently down nearly 60% in 2025. Looks like this is probably going to fill the gap from 8/2023 at around $42/share (which is when it broke out from hit's highs in 2021). That would be a nearly 80% drop from ATHs. A round trip back to ATHs from that level would be a 300% return.
This is one that people need to buy - but understand that it's a LOOOONG term investment. Buy some in your IRA and thank yourself in 5 years. ;-)
ANF holders may want to pay attention to the LEVI announcement this afternoon. TIKR shows mgmt guidance for revenue at $1.56B - $1.58B vs. $1.52B last year, and for normalized EPS at 28¢ - 30¢, vs. 33¢ last year. That last part seems low to me, and inconsistent with the recent performance of LEVI shares. Key for the ANF read-through will likely be the commentary about consumer strength and tariff impact, and the comparable store sales.
ANF I've never had more conviction on a stock than I have on ANF right now at the $75/share price point. Will it go down further - definitely. But its hard to say how deep and for how long. It would be a generational buy if it tests the 2021 highs again (around 45 - 50/share). I would be all in at that point - regardless of how hard this presidential administration tries to ruin the consumer and the economy.
I did a comparison of the major denim stocks (ANF, AEO, LEVI,KTB, GES) and to me it seems that ANF is the stand-out performer among them. While KTB has a higher ROE margin, it's only due to higher leverage. What seems to separate ANF from the rest of the pack is the "Read & React" inventory model, which has led them to the highest asset turnover and highest net margin within the peer group. Surprisingly, ANF has a fwd P/E ratio of 8.8, compared to 22.6 for the S&P 500. ANF had a decent Q2 and raised their sales guidance for the full year -- despite tariff concerns. I bought a small position today, even though there's no technical setup I'd usually be interested in.