Indra Secures 100% of Spanish Defense CreditsIon Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
The Indra Group (AIR.MC) has become the major player in the Spanish defense sector by securing the entirety of the new €4.7 billion loans that the Ministry of Industry and Tourism will allocate to ten Special Modernization Programs (PEM). These funds, granted at zero interest and without guarantees, will be repaid in line with Defense payments and distributed over several years, some until 2031. The package is part of Spain’s commitment to the United States to reach 2% of GDP in defense and strengthens Indra as the main technological driver of the sector.
In addition to the company chaired by Ángel Escribano, other beneficiaries will include Escribano Mechanical & Engineering, participating in at least three projects, as well as Telefónica, GMV, Epicom, and Cipherbit. The projects cover everything from telecommunications and cybersecurity systems to ammunition vehicles, command and control systems, ground combat, and missile defense, according to the Industrial and Technological Plan for Security and Defense. In total, these initiatives will mobilize €13 billion and generate more than 23,000 direct jobs and 60,000 indirect jobs.
This deployment comes in a context marked by international tensions and the need to meet military spending commitments, especially in projects such as the 8x8 armored vehicles, which have faced delays and technical issues in recent months.
The Spanish defense sector closed 2024 with record highs: consolidated revenues of €16.153 billion, a year-on-year growth of 16.2%, although it remains concentrated in major companies such as Airbus, Navantia, and Indra. The direct allocation of the credits reinforces Indra’s position as a central hub for technological modernization of the Armed Forces.
Technical Analysis: Indra (Ticker AT:IDR.es)
Indra’s stock has maintained bullish momentum in recent months, driven by defense contract announcements, reaching session highs last Friday:
Key Supports: €38.64 and the point of control (POC) area around €34.92, levels where it could stabilize in the event of corrections.
Resistances: Around the highs at €41.34, a level that could trigger a free upward move.
Indicators: RSI at 60.29%, positive MACD, volume decreasing since the beginning of the month. The moving average crossover on September 23 has kept the range wide, supporting the price above the 50-day moving average.
The ActivTrades Europe Market Pulse indicator signals a Risk Neutral/Mixed market, indicating general stability in the European market.
Conclusion:
Indra consolidates its position as the benchmark of the Spanish defense sector, playing a leading role in strategic state-funded programs. The company combines institutional backing, technological growth, and stock market appeal, although program execution and technical delays will be key factors to monitor in the coming years.
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Trade ideas
Indra future predictionOn this chart, we can see a stock with bull trading behavior.
The next resistance appears to be at 11,025, so we can gain up to 15%.
We crossed the MMA200 positively, and the MM20 and MM50 are moving up, significantly apart keeping their distance.
However we are far away from the MM20 moving average, the last time we were this far we had a retraction to the MM20.
After the retraction, the stock should start to have another bullish movement.
So I think the stock will retract in the short term and will seek resistance after that.
Indra: A Head and Shoulders may drag the stock price to 6.41€My previous analysis told to enter IDR when it reached 6.81-7€ level. However, the shape of a Head & Shoulders pattern has been confirmed today in H4 graph and we might experience further losses on the stock price, up to 6.41€ (lower bound of the slightly bearish channel it is forming).
Indra: Seizing sideways momentum call opportunity?Indra is moving inside a lateral channel with a slight bearish trend. In the last days there have been good news about projects that are being signed (i.e. Defense, Ireland) but it looks like global pandemic situation is making investors undecisive whether to hold positions on the stock or withdraw. Lond term trend is clearly bullish. The company was planning to get back to dividend payments suspended back in 2014 and now due to covid19 it has left this topic in standby. The truth is that if I think markets are going to throw-back around July 14, IDR may not have time to do its last swing and may go further down to levels seen in 2012. However, if tomorrow decreases a sharp 6%, depending on the global market news we might experience a rebound on Monday or a continuing decline until 6.395€, the base of the slightly bearish channel. So we must be very focused on what happens tomorrow in macros, news, covid19 new outbreak and market sentiment and operate consequently. On the weekend there might be as well some news or none that may affect the global stockmarket sentiment. One thing is for sure: There is a lot of volatility and one could benefit or lose with it.