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Warner Bros Discovery: Facing Paramount's Rejection Warner Bros Discovery: Between Rejecting Paramount and the Challenge of Redefining Hollywood
By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
The latest episode in Hollywood’s corporate soap opera has Warner Bros Discovery (NASDAQ: WBD) and Paramount Skydance (NASDAQ: PSKY) in the spotlight. According to Bloomberg, Warner Bros Discovery has rejected the first purchase offer from Paramount Skydance, valued at around $20 per share, considering that the proposal did not reflect its true market value.
This move comes amid profound transformations in the audiovisual industry, pressured by streaming competition, high production costs, and the collapse of traditional advertising revenues.
The $36 Billion Giant
After merging with Skydance for $8 billion, David Ellison now leads a conglomerate aiming to become one of the industry’s major players. Sources close to the negotiations indicate that Ellison is willing to improve the offer, engage directly with Warner shareholders, or bring in new financial partners, including Apollo Global Management, which could provide the necessary economic backing for a larger-scale deal.
If successful, the merger between Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros Discovery could reach a combined valuation of nearly $36 billion, creating a giant capable of competing with Disney (NYSE: DIS) and Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX).
Reconfiguring Debt and New Challenges
However, Warner Bros Discovery still carries a debt exceeding $40 billion, inherited from its 2022 merger with WarnerMedia. This, combined with integration challenges and fragmented business units, complicates any acquisition attempt. Integrating two such complex structures could generate operational overlaps and cultural tensions within the new entity.
The group led by David Zaslav continues to cut costs and restructure divisions to increase profitability, especially after a 2024 marked by mixed results and a slowdown in HBO Max subscriptions.
In the markets, Warner Bros Discovery shares remain under pressure, trading around $17.10, after falling more than 25% year-to-date, reflecting investor skepticism about short-term profitability. While the initial rejection could be seen as definitive, Paramount Skydance’s continued interest and potential involvement of funds like Apollo Global Management open the door to new corporate moves in the near term. Paramount Skydance seeks to establish itself as an aggressive player ready to lead industry consolidation. In any case, the outcome will not only define the future of both companies but could also reshape the balance of power in the entertainment industry.
Technical Analysis (Ticker AT: WBD, Ticker AT: PSKY)
Friday’s market sell-off also hit WBD and PSKY, delivering a cold bucket of water to those betting on sustained upward momentum. Factors that may have driven this include:
Correction after speculative rally: The stock had seen strong upward movements fueled by acquisition rumors (Paramount/Skydance) and expectations of future restructuring. This rise created “air” for corrections: investors took profits and adjusted positions against previously identified technical supports.
Uncertainty about the deal: WBD’s rejection of the initial $20/share offer makes it clear that a superficial approach is not enough; negotiations, counter-moves, and possibly new offers will be required. This “power game” creates an anxious atmosphere.
High volume during the drop: Friday’s pullback occurred with increased volume compared to previous days, indicating it was not an isolated move but backed by real selling interest amid weakness signals. In many crypto exchanges, for example, this led to a financial hecatomb with massive liquidations.
Technical triggers: Prices hit resistance levels that had recently served as psychological zones and were strongly rejected.
Sensitivity to news and rumors: In such a “viral” market with M&A speculation, any unfavorable rumor increases selling pressure.
WBD: Since September 25, the stock has retraced below the momentum that took it to recent highs, closing at $17.10 on Friday. Breaking the 50-day moving average suggests the price could fall to $15.87 or even to the previous range of $10.69–$13.91 if support does not hold. The 100-day moving average could act as support, allowing a new consolidation zone between $15.87 and $20.24. RSI at 47.51% indicates slight oversold conditions, while the negative MACD suggests continuation of the correction. The Point of Control (POC) at $12.85 signals a possible retracement of recent speculation if the market does not hold.
PSKY: After hitting $20.86 on September 23, it corrected to $17, slightly above the 100-day moving average. Its current support is $16.64; if breached, it could fall to $15. RSI at 44.21% and a bearish MACD confirm oversold pressure. The POC at $18.77 indicates its consolidation zone is stronger than WBD’s, due to speculation around the deal.
Risk Scenario (RISK OFF)
The ActivTrades US Market Pulse signals an extreme RISK OFF, which could push WBD toward $15.40 or even $11.60 and PSKY toward $15, while volatility and volume spike. This scenario would affect both share prices and the potential Paramount-WBD deal, as investors prioritize liquidity and may delay strategic decisions. For traders and investors, these moments demand caution but also allow identification of rebound zones and adjustment of positions amid abrupt market moves.
Wall Street Blockbuster
The rejection by Warner Bros Discovery does not mark the end but the start of a new round in the battle for global entertainment control. If David Ellison manages to raise his offer and secure external financing, the scenario could change drastically. For now, Hollywood once again shows that its most thrilling stories are not always told on the big screen but in the boardrooms of its major studios.
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WBD: Wave 4 Retracement Setup After One of the Biggest % RalliesHere’s how the setup has played out from the very beginning:
On the 4H chart, the current setup points to a potential Wave 4 retracement after an explosive breakout. Price surged from $12 to $19 in just two trading days, a move of roughly +58% — one of the largest percentage rallies in the company’s history — leaving multiple gap zones behind.
These gaps create high probability targets for a retracement:
First leg into the 23.6% level at $17.5
Deeper correction possible toward the 38.2% level at $16.6
While the second target is not guaranteed, the chance is significant since both zones coincide with gap-up areas that often get filled.
This setup aligns with the broader weekly Elliott structure: we are likely at the late stage of Weekly Wave 3, entering a corrective Wave 4 if bears step in at this resistance zone. At the same time, within this weekly move, the 4H chart also shows a 5-wave sub-structure — currently completing its own Wave 3, in confluence with the larger timeframe.
Risk management: standard 0.5R target, 1 ATR target, 2 ATR stop on the 4H chart. High probability trade, as the move has already hit a strong weekly resistance zone.
This trade setup is very similar to Oracle’s recent move, which hit all 3 predicted targets:
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
WARNER BROS Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 042525Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 8/61.80%
Chart time frame: D
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress: A
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) 61.80% support
D) Hit the bottom
E) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
The Simplicity of The Algorithms! Love this chart & patternThis short but sweet video clip says it all for me. The market repeats itself - if it repeats algorithms (which I've proven over and over again), then the subsequent movement repeats itself too.
I don't mean to make this look easy because obviously it's one thing to analyze something that's happened and "might happen" in the future - but to actually trade it is very difficult. Because even though we have the keys to the market, it will do everything it can to think we're wrong and don't know what we're doing. It will trick you into selling early, sizing up too soon, getting in too early, etc.
Reach out with any questions, comments, or thoughts!
Happy Trading :)
WBD has strength to 10.60 and 11.70- while the weekly chart seems a bit overbought, WBD still has strength and room for
a probability of reaching 10.60 by next week and a possible 11.70 by the end of the month.
- 9.50-9.40 is a good place to enter.
- profit target is 10.60/11.70
- trade is invalid bellow 9
- For call options, use 29 Nov. expiry
WBD WILL CONTINUE THE RALLYThis Weekly FORECAST
Opportunity for WBD. This setup is my trading idea/plan, if you want to follow: trade at your own risk (TAYOR).
Risk Factors:
1. Market conditions, unexpected news, or external events could impact the trade.
2. Always use risk management strategies to protect your capital.
WBD - Looks good to move up sideStock Buy Opportunity: Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD)
Buy Zone: $9.00 - $9.50
Stop Loss: $6.50
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for study and informational purposes only. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions or taking a position in this stock.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for study and informational purposes only. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions or taking a position in this stock.
WBD bottoming in process, turnaround soon? Target 70 USD +Following WBD for quiet a few years, and we could witness now a bottoming process, where either we have the lows already in, or we should be near to it.
On the several year-prospect we had already a wave 1 (or A wave) to the upside, with a wave 2 several year pullback as either as a-b-c (with an overshooting b wave to the upside), or a WXY structure.
Yellow route is the alternative route for now, which highlights one more bigger swing lows arriving (and that currently we might be in yellow wavecounts, where price action SHOULD hold the 8.30-8.40 USD mark and not break below comfortably. (Secondary scenario)
Primary scenario where I watching primary a bottoming process is the white route where the white big wave (2) is already in at ~8.80 USD. As the weekly and daily MACD/RSI showing bullish divergence, and also the runup having clearly impulsive characteristic from that bottom, I am leaning towards this scenario.
Be aware, yellow is still not invalidated though. I am re-publishing the idea, since the previous one got flagged for house-rule-violation.
Warner Bros. Discovery Partners With Charter CommunicationsWarner Bros. Discovery Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:WBD ) and Charter Communications Inc. ( NASDAQ:CHTR ) have unveiled a groundbreaking, multi-year distribution partnership that is set to reshape the future of video. This strategic alliance promises to revolutionize how content is delivered to customers, integrating linear video and direct-to-consumer streaming services. With this early renewal, the two giants are positioning themselves to deliver more value and flexibility in video bundles, catering to evolving viewer preferences and potentially driving significant growth.
A Strategic Partnership for the Future
The newly announced partnership between Warner Bros. Discovery and Charter Communications is a strategic move that seeks to align with changing consumer habits, particularly the growing demand for streaming services. This partnership expands the distribution of Warner Bros. Discovery's Max (Ad Lite) service, which includes HBO, Discovery+, and other premium content, to Spectrum’s millions of Select customers at no extra cost. This addition, valued at nearly $60 per month, is expected to significantly enhance Spectrum’s bundle proposition, which already includes popular streaming platforms like Disney+, ESPN+, Paramount+, and AMC+.
David Zaslav, President and CEO of Warner Bros. Discovery, emphasized the value of their linear content and the significant investments in premium programming, sports, and news. This agreement not only extends Spectrum's carriage of Warner Bros. Discovery's linear network portfolio, including TNT, CNN, Food Network, HGTV, and more, but also positions Max as a preferred partner for marketing and selling direct-to-consumer (DTC) apps and bundles to broadband subscribers.
Charter’s President and CEO, Chris Winfrey, highlighted the evolution of the linear and broadband video distribution model, noting that this partnership supports Spectrum’s efforts to provide flexible packages that cater to a variety of customer needs. Spectrum’s DTC distribution plan, set to fully roll out in 2025, is expected to boost the reach of Warner Bros. Discovery's premium content across its vast customer base.
The partnership comes as a timely boost for Warner Bros. Discovery, which has faced challenges with its traditional TV business due to ongoing cord-cutting and a slow recovery in the advertising market. Despite these challenges, this strategic agreement reflects the company’s adaptability and commitment to leveraging new opportunities in the streaming space.
Technical Outlook
Technically, Warner Bros. Discovery's stock ( NASDAQ:WBD ) has seen a substantial increase, rising 8.43% as of the latest trading session. This uptick is significant, especially considering the stock has been in a prolonged downtrend for much of the year. The recent gains have been driven by investor optimism surrounding the new partnership, which is seen as a pivotal move that could enhance Warner Bros. Discovery's market position.
Currently, WBD’s stock holds a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 44.28, indicating that the stock is in neutral territory but poised for further growth as buying momentum builds. The RSI value, nearing the 50 mark, suggests that the stock is transitioning out of oversold conditions, potentially signaling the beginning of a new upward trend. If the stock continues to gain traction, it could break key resistance levels, further bolstering investor confidence.
The early renewal of the multi-year deal with Charter Communications has already had a positive impact on the stock’s performance. Warner Bros. Discovery's ability to secure distribution for Max and Discovery+ without additional cost to customers enhances its competitive edge against rivals. Moreover, the broader inclusion of these streaming services in Spectrum’s bundle could attract new subscribers, increase viewer engagement, and ultimately contribute to revenue growth.
The Road Ahead: Will Warner Bros. Discovery Sustain Its Momentum?
The partnership with Charter Communications represents a significant step forward for Warner Bros. Discovery as it navigates the evolving media landscape. By integrating traditional linear TV with cutting-edge streaming services, the company is not only adapting to current market trends but also setting a new standard for value and flexibility in video content distribution.
From a technical perspective, the recent positive movement in WBD stock reflects growing market confidence in the company's strategic direction. With a strong lineup of content, innovative partnerships, and a focus on consumer-friendly bundle offerings, Warner Bros. Discovery is well-positioned to capitalize on future opportunities.
However, challenges remain, particularly in the highly competitive streaming market where rivals like Disney, Netflix, and Paramount are also vying for market share. Warner Bros. Discovery will need to continue innovating and expanding its content offerings to maintain its momentum.
Overall, the early renewal agreement with Charter Communications has provided a much-needed boost to Warner Bros. Discovery’s outlook, both fundamentally and technically. Investors will be closely watching how this partnership evolves and its impact on Warner Bros. Discovery's bottom line in the coming quarters. If the company can successfully leverage this agreement to drive growth, it could mark a turning point for WBD, setting the stage for a brighter future in the ever-evolving world of media and entertainment.
Warner Bros. Discovery Stock Dips 12% on $10 Bln Quarterly LossKey Takeaways:
- Warner Bros. Discovery ( NASDAQ:WBD ) shares plunged sharply after announcing a staggering $10 billion loss for Q2.
- The loss was largely driven by a $9.1 billion write-down in the value of its cable networks, such as CNN and TNT, as they struggle against the rise of streaming giants like Netflix.
- Revenue missed analysts' expectations, falling to $9.71 billion from $10.36 billion a year earlier.
Warner Bros. Discovery's stock took a nosedive, losing over 10% in value after the entertainment conglomerate reported a nearly $10 billion loss for the second quarter. This development has sent shockwaves through the industry, highlighting the growing challenges faced by traditional media companies in an increasingly digital landscape.
A Massive Write-Down and Revenue Misses
The heart of the issue lies in a substantial $9.1 billion non-cash goodwill impairment charge tied to the company's cable networks. This write-down reflects the diminishing value of legacy television channels like CNN and TNT, which have been struggling to maintain relevance in an era dominated by streaming services. As Netflix and other platforms continue to capture viewers' attention, traditional cable networks are facing an existential crisis.
Warner Bros. Discovery's Q2 performance also disappointed on the revenue front, generating $9.71 billion, down from $10.36 billion in the same period last year. Analysts had hoped for a more modest decline, with predictions hovering around $10.17 billion. The company's widening loss, up from $1.24 billion a year ago to $9.99 billion, underscores the gravity of its current predicament.
Cord-Cutting and Competitive Pressure
The decline of cable networks isn't unique to Warner Bros. Discovery. The entire industry is grappling with the rapid pace of cord-cutting, as more consumers ditch traditional cable subscriptions in favor of streaming alternatives. Disney, for example, recently reported a 7% year-over-year decline in revenue from its linear TV networks, despite profitable streaming ventures like Disney+.
The challenges for Warner Bros. Discovery ( NASDAQ:WBD ) extend beyond just declining viewership. The company's TNT Sports division recently lost a high-profile bidding war for an 11-year NBA media rights deal, which could further strain its revenue streams moving forward.
A Company in Transition
Warner Bros. Discovery was born out of the 2022 merger between WarnerMedia and Discovery, a move that was supposed to create a powerhouse in the media landscape. However, two years into its existence, the company finds itself in the throes of a difficult transition. CEO David Zaslav acknowledged the hurdles in an earnings call, emphasizing that while there have been notable progress points, the company is still grappling with "tough challenges."
One of the major issues is the difference between the market capitalization and book value of the company, which triggered the massive write-down. This discrepancy underscores the market's skepticism about the future value of traditional media assets in a world increasingly dominated by digital content.
Looking Ahead
With its stock down nearly 40% this year, Warner Bros. Discovery is at a crossroads. The company must find a way to navigate the shifting media landscape, where streaming reigns supreme and legacy media faces mounting pressure. The Q2 results serve as a stark reminder that the road ahead is fraught with difficulties, but they also present an opportunity for the company to innovate and adapt.
Technical Outlook
Since the onset of the first quarter of 2022, Warner Bros Discovery stock (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:WBD ) has exhibited a consistent pattern of descending wedge formations, subsequently followed by a phase of consolidation. The daily price chart reveals a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 32.99, indicative of an oversold market position. Notably, Warner Bros Discovery stock (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:WBD ) has maintained a prolonged oversold status, leading to a substantial 40% decline in its valuation since the commencement of this year.
For now, investors are left to wonder whether Warner Bros. Discovery can successfully reinvent itself or if it will continue to struggle in the face of relentless competition from streaming giants. As the company continues its long-term transition, the future remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: the media industry is changing, and Warner Bros. Discovery must change with it.
WBD another -30%, so First Target $8!In the past months, the share of this company has dropped from $78 to $11 !
The trend of the share in the monthly and weekly time frame is still downward
In the weekly trend, it has reacted to an important range and it is bearish yet.
The first target is $8
The next target is $7.2
$WBD - Case for $12.50Options volume signal, compared against techincal indicators, show movement capacity.
Must defeat the fib level at $9 to continue. if it gets rejected, will stay in it's range for recovery
My main concern is resistance levels. It does not do well when hitting historic resistance on the 4 hour chart but the 1day/1week chart show that it's ready to make a substantial move
Huge options volume at this specific price point for october so plenty of time and liquidity to cover. 3481 open interest with 30,000+ opened today at this strike in oct
regression channel shows it entering bull range and with this level of volume and interest, can repeat it's last bullish regression channel trend.
not trade advice
WBD is BullishPrice was in a strong downtrend, however the matured bullish divergence on daily time frame suggests that bulls are waking up and assuming control of the price action. This sentiment is confirmed by the break of previous lower high and formation of a higher high. Price would now define a higher low before a bullish rally as per Dow theory. Targets are mentioned on the chart.