tommtajlor

WBD bottoming in process, turnaround soon? Target 70 USD +

Long
tommtajlor Updated   
BATS:WBD   Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. - Series A
Following WBD for quiet a few years, and we could witness now a bottoming process, where either we have the lows already in, or we should be near to it.

On the several year-prospect we had already a wave 1 (or A wave) to the upside, with a wave 2 several year pullback as either as a-b-c (with an overshooting b wave to the upside), or a WXY structure.

Yellow route is the alternative route for now, which highlights one more bigger swing lows arriving (and that currently we might be in yellow wavecounts, where price action SHOULD hold the 8.30-8.40 USD mark and not break below comfortably. (Secondary scenario)

Primary scenario where I watching primary a bottoming process is the white route where the white big wave (2) is already in at ~8.80 USD. As the weekly and daily MACD/RSI showing bullish divergence, and also the runup having clearly impulsive characteristic from that bottom, I am leaning towards this scenario.

Be aware, yellow is still not invalidated though. I am re-publishing the idea, since the previous one got flagged for house-rule-violation.
Comment:
In the previous idea our defined green box held up very nicely (so far), and we saw a very nice reaction. Be aware though, despite it is having a very impulsive movement, so far it is only a 3 wave move, and what we need to see is a 5 wave up, with a 3 waves pullback on a bigger scale, holding later support (we cannot define it yet, will update it later).


If in-deed we had the bottom in place, we should witness maybe one or two more smaller swing low to the green support box as being the 4th wave, and then a swing up taking out the previous swing high. Landing 12.30 USD - 13 USD somewhere in between. Be aware though we have arrived to a structural resistance though.

Comment:
Massacre move to the downside. Green support fib area was not holding for a wave 4, not only that, we cut through so far the deeper wave2/wave B support meanwhile very very fast like a knife on a butter down for the 0.786 support area, now retesting the purple falling wedge (diagonal?) descending trendline.

Extremely impulsive movement to the downside, which now heavily shift probabilites to the yellow route. Be aware, the current white route I have sketched out is already invalidated with todays open move... Best case it is a different setup (maybe a diagonal, maybe just an "a" wave from an abc), however neither of them is trustable at this stage. I would expect further downside, making new lows with this move. Unless now it shoots up immediately.

Comment:
Lost the 0.887 level support. Extreme sell volume is arriving. Prep for further downside. We have so far lost also the trendline, and all the moving averages support on the daily as well.
Comment:
Current white route/counts invalidated completely. It will have a slim chance to be resetted and start all over again at around the 9.43-9.47 USD levels, we nearly there.

Chances are extremely slim though, yellow is highly in control now.
Comment:
Ugly overall day, yellow route gained heavy probability. As I mentioned there is a slim chance a white route can be resetted just right where we are now, but so far we have closed below the big 0.887 retracement. If we jump back above 9.47 tomorrow withouth making any meaningful new sustained low, there is a slim chance to restart 5 waves up, OR having an "undershooting" b wave followed by a C wave up now, but that is heavily unreliable.

So far, the bullish divergence is not diminished on the 4hr/daily/weekly RSI/MACD, but getting challenged as well.

Moving average wise we lost all support (9/21/50/52 day MA), sell volume is extreme, and seemingly does not want to stop for now.

Even for the yellow route we should see a bounce soon as a wave 4 pullback at a minimum, resistance box added for that, which needs to be adjusted if price goes further to the downside.

Unfortunately the earnings was bad, and the investor/earning call after that was just horrible by the CEO; might be some overreaction for sure.

Trade closed manually:
I have closed down all my position with a loss of about ~12%.
Comment:
Either the yellow wave (3) is in, and then we should now get a wave (4) into the small red resistance box, OR I could count as the yellow circle wave 1 is in, then price should not be able to break above the upper resistance. Further lows are expected though.

Important now would be to have a corrective moves to the upside in 3 waves moves(likely as an abc).

Comment:
I have added back a white count, BUT be aware, it is extremely fragile. I can now count a small 5 waves up as a DIAGONAL, which is unreliable, so it has to prove itself. In order now the white to play out, 9.59 cannot be broken sustained and comfortable.

Yellow is still in play heavily, in fact, it has more weight still, and likely we are forming the yellow circle wave 2 now before dropping deeper down.

Comment:
Recieved a few DM if the top is in for either white wave (1) or yellow circle wave 2?
Not neccessarly, it can still extend higher if it wants. Maybe 1 or less likely 2 more smaller swing high could still be in play, it would still fit for both (white and yellow) route.
Comment:
Not much changed, we are still in the red resistance area, price action suffering to go higher, and so far we are only having a 3 count move to the upside, which would fit perfectly for the yellow route. It is likely unfinished, meaning, still could push higher.

For the white route in its current format it would need to be a diagonal in a diagonal I believe, which is heavily unreliable, but there is a slim probability for that. It is not invalidated, but my primarly is definetely the yellow route.

RSI/MACD is turning downside again, converging but not yet diverged, 9day MA so far holding up, but the higher ones and the structural resistance and the red fib resistance area pushing price action down.
Comment:
Still within the resistance area, and still not looking impulsive to the upside (only if it is some form of a diagonal maybe, but it is not reliable yet), and would fit the yellow route still nice!

I have added a short position therefore, BUT I am still bullish overall.
Comment:
The yellow in its current format invalidated, support (orange box), and resistance (red box) updated. The challenge for the white count is that it is absolutely not looking impulsive, but lets give it a chance in its current format. COULD be some kind of overall diagonal to the upside forming.

Comment:
We got rejected on the 200day MA, and for the white count it is too choppy and overlapping. Likely I need to modify the counts a bit due to this, no major change so far though. Our support and resistance still in effect. Wish You All Happy Holidays!
Comment:
Shorter timeframe updated. In order the white to play out, it should be primarly a leading diagonal (hence the choppyness). I have adjusted the counts according to that.

Support box adjusted. Yellow & orange (previously purple, but was hardly visible) still in play.

Comment:
Short update: still no major change. So far the small orange support fib box still holding. Some possible micro-count added.

Comment:
White route getting heavily challenged now. Also by the looks of it we have 5 waves down likely as a diagonal, suggesting/shifting probabilities now even more to the yellow. Now the orange route starting to gain some (but not yet meaningful) traction.
Comment:
WBD trying to bottom and it is heavily challenging for it. Still struggling so far, although neither route is invalidated YET. For me it still seems following the yellow route.

Trade active:
Scaling back in for the B wave (yellow) upside, for long @ 9.50 -> 1st small amount added
Trade active:
Scaling back in, @ 8.32 ->2nd small amount added
Comment:
White route is invalidated I think it is clear. So far yellow is still holding up quiet well. However, the challenge is now, this move "up" is far from an impulse, in fact looking quiet the opposite. Is it invalidated? No. But I would not be suprised to fall deeper before having a more meaningful correction.

However. IF (huge IF) we start to fall deeper below 8.25-ish levels, then also the yellow count is getting challenged. Then the orange is gaining momentum, which we do NOT track so far just keeping half-an-eye on.

Trade active:
Scaling back in @8.19 & @8.13 -> 3rd small batch added
Trade active:
4th small batch added @ 8.06
Comment:
I have added 2 possible micro-count, just be aware it is very fragile.
So far we have 3 waves up on the hourly, added a wave 4 pullback fib box.

Alternatively, we have an "a" wave up, so the bottom bigger fib box is the support for the b wave pullback. That box should hold for the yellow.

Trade closed manually:
Closed @ 9.14. 32% profit made. Waiting for further pullback to re-enter.
Comment:
I think we near the top of a resistance (0.618 extension - red line, then the falling dotted top-channel line, and also structural resistance), of course price can extend higher, then we need to adjust the orange support fib box.

Thats for either a wave2 or for the b wave pullback in which case the 0.786 should hold.

Trade active:
Scaling back in @ 8.97
Trade active:
Scaling back in @ 8.60
Trade active:
Scaling back in @ 8.48
Trade active:
Scaling back in @ 8.40
Comment:
Some micro-count added, just be aware it is fragile. Added a very small fib box support area to finish off now white wave (1).

Comment:
Likelyness growing for the yellow c (b). Under 8.21 likelyness growing for a new overall low, before going up.
Trade active:
Scaling back in 2x @ 8.28
Trade active:
Scaling back in 2X @ 8.23
Trade active:
Scaling back in 2X @ 8.17
Comment:
The previous (1)-(2) setup has been invalidated, but price still holding support, essentially moving sideways, Shouuld it drop comfortably below 8.15 USD, before going above 9.30 USD, would open the door for one more abc down structure for the yellow route.

So far it could be in the white a wxy as a wave circle 2, but be aware those are rare.
Comment:
Breakout so far happened. Lets see if it is just a "fakeout" or a valid one. Remember it could now only be a wxy with that pullback, BUT it held support... 50/50

Also, be aware, so far we have only 3 count on the micro-structure with this breakout, so a small pullback would be imminent to complete a small wave 4 and then shoot a bit higher for a wave 5. This is not on the chart, since make no sense YET. The bigger road is sketched out either white/yellow/ orange.

Comment:
Early warning: That seemingly was a fakeout. If price falls now below 8.22, I would say we need to be prepared (as a second early sign) price likely visit primarly the 7.70 - 7.80- ish area trying to find support there.

Still would be acceptable for the yellow route, just be aware it puts more weigh then to the orange route.