WBD bottoming in process, turnaround soon? Target 70 USD +
Following WBD for quiet a few years, and we could witness now a bottoming process, where either we have the lows already in, or we should be near to it.
On the several year-prospect we had already a wave 1 (or A wave) to the upside, with a wave 2 several year pullback as either as a-b-c (with an overshooting b wave to the upside), or a WXY structure.
Yellow route is the alternative route for now, which highlights one more bigger swing lows arriving (and that currently we might be in yellow wavecounts, where price action SHOULD hold the 8.30-8.40 USD mark and not break below comfortably. (Secondary scenario)
Primary scenario where I watching primary a bottoming process is the white route where the white big wave (2) is already in at ~8.80 USD. As the weekly and daily MACD/RSI showing bullish divergence, and also the runup having clearly impulsive characteristic from that bottom, I am leaning towards this scenario.
Be aware, yellow is still not invalidated though. I am re-publishing the idea, since the previous one got flagged for house-rule-violation.
On the several year-prospect we had already a wave 1 (or A wave) to the upside, with a wave 2 several year pullback as either as a-b-c (with an overshooting b wave to the upside), or a WXY structure.
Yellow route is the alternative route for now, which highlights one more bigger swing lows arriving (and that currently we might be in yellow wavecounts, where price action SHOULD hold the 8.30-8.40 USD mark and not break below comfortably. (Secondary scenario)
Primary scenario where I watching primary a bottoming process is the white route where the white big wave (2) is already in at ~8.80 USD. As the weekly and daily MACD/RSI showing bullish divergence, and also the runup having clearly impulsive characteristic from that bottom, I am leaning towards this scenario.
Be aware, yellow is still not invalidated though. I am re-publishing the idea, since the previous one got flagged for house-rule-violation.
Comment:
Massacre move to the downside. Green support fib area was not holding for a wave 4, not only that, we cut through so far the deeper wave2/wave B support meanwhile very very fast like a knife on a butter down for the 0.786 support area, now retesting the purple falling wedge (diagonal?) descending trendline.
Extremely impulsive movement to the downside, which now heavily shift probabilites to the yellow route. Be aware, the current white route I have sketched out is already invalidated with todays open move... Best case it is a different setup (maybe a diagonal, maybe just an "a" wave from an abc), however neither of them is trustable at this stage. I would expect further downside, making new lows with this move. Unless now it shoots up immediately.
Extremely impulsive movement to the downside, which now heavily shift probabilites to the yellow route. Be aware, the current white route I have sketched out is already invalidated with todays open move... Best case it is a different setup (maybe a diagonal, maybe just an "a" wave from an abc), however neither of them is trustable at this stage. I would expect further downside, making new lows with this move. Unless now it shoots up immediately.
Comment:
Lost the 0.887 level support. Extreme sell volume is arriving. Prep for further downside. We have so far lost also the trendline, and all the moving averages support on the daily as well.
Comment:
Current white route/counts invalidated completely. It will have a slim chance to be resetted and start all over again at around the 9.43-9.47 USD levels, we nearly there.
Chances are extremely slim though, yellow is highly in control now.
Chances are extremely slim though, yellow is highly in control now.
Comment:
Ugly overall day, yellow route gained heavy probability. As I mentioned there is a slim chance a white route can be resetted just right where we are now, but so far we have closed below the big 0.887 retracement. If we jump back above 9.47 tomorrow withouth making any meaningful new sustained low, there is a slim chance to restart 5 waves up, OR having an "undershooting" b wave followed by a C wave up now, but that is heavily unreliable.
So far, the bullish divergence is not diminished on the 4hr/daily/weekly RSI/MACD, but getting challenged as well.
Moving average wise we lost all support (9/21/50/52 day MA), sell volume is extreme, and seemingly does not want to stop for now.
Even for the yellow route we should see a bounce soon as a wave 4 pullback at a minimum, resistance box added for that, which needs to be adjusted if price goes further to the downside.
Unfortunately the earnings was bad, and the investor/earning call after that was just horrible by the CEO; might be some overreaction for sure.
So far, the bullish divergence is not diminished on the 4hr/daily/weekly RSI/MACD, but getting challenged as well.
Moving average wise we lost all support (9/21/50/52 day MA), sell volume is extreme, and seemingly does not want to stop for now.
Even for the yellow route we should see a bounce soon as a wave 4 pullback at a minimum, resistance box added for that, which needs to be adjusted if price goes further to the downside.
Unfortunately the earnings was bad, and the investor/earning call after that was just horrible by the CEO; might be some overreaction for sure.
Trade closed manually:
I have closed down all my position with a loss of about ~12%.
Comment:
Either the yellow wave (3) is in, and then we should now get a wave (4) into the small red resistance box, OR I could count as the yellow circle wave 1 is in, then price should not be able to break above the upper resistance. Further lows are expected though.
Important now would be to have a corrective moves to the upside in 3 waves moves(likely as an abc).
Important now would be to have a corrective moves to the upside in 3 waves moves(likely as an abc).
Comment:
I have added back a white count, BUT be aware, it is extremely fragile. I can now count a small 5 waves up as a DIAGONAL, which is unreliable, so it has to prove itself. In order now the white to play out, 9.59 cannot be broken sustained and comfortable.
Yellow is still in play heavily, in fact, it has more weight still, and likely we are forming the yellow circle wave 2 now before dropping deeper down.
Yellow is still in play heavily, in fact, it has more weight still, and likely we are forming the yellow circle wave 2 now before dropping deeper down.
Comment:
Recieved a few DM if the top is in for either white wave (1) or yellow circle wave 2?
Not neccessarly, it can still extend higher if it wants. Maybe 1 or less likely 2 more smaller swing high could still be in play, it would still fit for both (white and yellow) route.
Not neccessarly, it can still extend higher if it wants. Maybe 1 or less likely 2 more smaller swing high could still be in play, it would still fit for both (white and yellow) route.
Comment:
Not much changed, we are still in the red resistance area, price action suffering to go higher, and so far we are only having a 3 count move to the upside, which would fit perfectly for the yellow route. It is likely unfinished, meaning, still could push higher.
For the white route in its current format it would need to be a diagonal in a diagonal I believe, which is heavily unreliable, but there is a slim probability for that. It is not invalidated, but my primarly is definetely the yellow route.
RSI/MACD is turning downside again, converging but not yet diverged, 9day MA so far holding up, but the higher ones and the structural resistance and the red fib resistance area pushing price action down.
For the white route in its current format it would need to be a diagonal in a diagonal I believe, which is heavily unreliable, but there is a slim probability for that. It is not invalidated, but my primarly is definetely the yellow route.
RSI/MACD is turning downside again, converging but not yet diverged, 9day MA so far holding up, but the higher ones and the structural resistance and the red fib resistance area pushing price action down.
Comment:
Still within the resistance area, and still not looking impulsive to the upside (only if it is some form of a diagonal maybe, but it is not reliable yet), and would fit the yellow route still nice!
I have added a short position therefore, BUT I am still bullish overall.
I have added a short position therefore, BUT I am still bullish overall.
Comment:
The yellow in its current format invalidated, support (orange box), and resistance (red box) updated. The challenge for the white count is that it is absolutely not looking impulsive, but lets give it a chance in its current format. COULD be some kind of overall diagonal to the upside forming.
Comment:
We got rejected on the 200day MA, and for the white count it is too choppy and overlapping. Likely I need to modify the counts a bit due to this, no major change so far though. Our support and resistance still in effect. Wish You All Happy Holidays!
Comment:
Shorter timeframe updated. In order the white to play out, it should be primarly a leading diagonal (hence the choppyness). I have adjusted the counts according to that.
Support box adjusted. Yellow & orange (previously purple, but was hardly visible) still in play.
Support box adjusted. Yellow & orange (previously purple, but was hardly visible) still in play.
Comment:
Short update: still no major change. So far the small orange support fib box still holding. Some possible micro-count added.
Comment:
White route getting heavily challenged now. Also by the looks of it we have 5 waves down likely as a diagonal, suggesting/shifting probabilities now even more to the yellow. Now the orange route starting to gain some (but not yet meaningful) traction.
Comment:
WBD trying to bottom and it is heavily challenging for it. Still struggling so far, although neither route is invalidated YET. For me it still seems following the yellow route.
Trade active:
Scaling back in for the B wave (yellow) upside, for long @ 9.50 -> 1st small amount added
Trade active:
Scaling back in, @ 8.32 ->2nd small amount added
Comment:
White route is invalidated I think it is clear. So far yellow is still holding up quiet well. However, the challenge is now, this move "up" is far from an impulse, in fact looking quiet the opposite. Is it invalidated? No. But I would not be suprised to fall deeper before having a more meaningful correction.
However. IF (huge IF) we start to fall deeper below 8.25-ish levels, then also the yellow count is getting challenged. Then the orange is gaining momentum, which we do NOT track so far just keeping half-an-eye on.
However. IF (huge IF) we start to fall deeper below 8.25-ish levels, then also the yellow count is getting challenged. Then the orange is gaining momentum, which we do NOT track so far just keeping half-an-eye on.
Trade active:
Scaling back in @8.19 & @8.13 -> 3rd small batch added
Trade active:
4th small batch added @ 8.06
Comment:
I have added 2 possible micro-count, just be aware it is very fragile.
So far we have 3 waves up on the hourly, added a wave 4 pullback fib box.
Alternatively, we have an "a" wave up, so the bottom bigger fib box is the support for the b wave pullback. That box should hold for the yellow.
So far we have 3 waves up on the hourly, added a wave 4 pullback fib box.
Alternatively, we have an "a" wave up, so the bottom bigger fib box is the support for the b wave pullback. That box should hold for the yellow.
Trade closed manually:
Closed @ 9.14. 32% profit made. Waiting for further pullback to re-enter.
Comment:
I think we near the top of a resistance (0.618 extension - red line, then the falling dotted top-channel line, and also structural resistance), of course price can extend higher, then we need to adjust the orange support fib box.
Thats for either a wave2 or for the b wave pullback in which case the 0.786 should hold.
Thats for either a wave2 or for the b wave pullback in which case the 0.786 should hold.
Trade active:
Scaling back in @ 8.97
Trade active:
Scaling back in @ 8.60
Trade active:
Scaling back in @ 8.48
Trade active:
Scaling back in @ 8.40
Comment:
Some micro-count added, just be aware it is fragile. Added a very small fib box support area to finish off now white wave (1).
Comment:
Likelyness growing for the yellow c (b). Under 8.21 likelyness growing for a new overall low, before going up.
Trade active:
Scaling back in 2x @ 8.28
Trade active:
Scaling back in 2X @ 8.23
Trade active:
Scaling back in 2X @ 8.17
Comment:
The previous (1)-(2) setup has been invalidated, but price still holding support, essentially moving sideways, Shouuld it drop comfortably below 8.15 USD, before going above 9.30 USD, would open the door for one more abc down structure for the yellow route.
So far it could be in the white a wxy as a wave circle 2, but be aware those are rare.
So far it could be in the white a wxy as a wave circle 2, but be aware those are rare.
Comment:
Breakout so far happened. Lets see if it is just a "fakeout" or a valid one. Remember it could now only be a wxy with that pullback, BUT it held support... 50/50
Also, be aware, so far we have only 3 count on the micro-structure with this breakout, so a small pullback would be imminent to complete a small wave 4 and then shoot a bit higher for a wave 5. This is not on the chart, since make no sense YET. The bigger road is sketched out either white/yellow/ orange.
Also, be aware, so far we have only 3 count on the micro-structure with this breakout, so a small pullback would be imminent to complete a small wave 4 and then shoot a bit higher for a wave 5. This is not on the chart, since make no sense YET. The bigger road is sketched out either white/yellow/ orange.
Comment:
Early warning: That seemingly was a fakeout. If price falls now below 8.22, I would say we need to be prepared (as a second early sign) price likely visit primarly the 7.70 - 7.80- ish area trying to find support there.
Still would be acceptable for the yellow route, just be aware it puts more weigh then to the orange route.
Still would be acceptable for the yellow route, just be aware it puts more weigh then to the orange route.
Comment:
Meanwhile I have sketched out the orange, just in case.
If no bounce at around the 7.94 - 7.98, then probabilities shifting heavily to orange.
If no bounce at around the 7.94 - 7.98, then probabilities shifting heavily to orange.
Trade active:
Scaling back-in 2x @ 7.60
Also we need to shift our focus to the orange route.
Also we need to shift our focus to the orange route.
Trade active:
Scaling back-in 2x @ 7.38
Now I wait and witness.
Now I wait and witness.
Comment:
Between 7.06 and 7.37 we should witness a bounce, preferably not making a sustained break below 7.24. I have left a yellow count (adjusted), but be aware orange is having more weight now.
In the orange, we should get a wave (4) correction into resistance (which needed to be adjusted if we dip lower), and primarly I would expect a last leg down, also as an abc structure.
In the orange, we should get a wave (4) correction into resistance (which needed to be adjusted if we dip lower), and primarly I would expect a last leg down, also as an abc structure.
Comment:
Microcount speculation (highly fragile) for still the yellow wave, IN CASE we would directly drop lower. Now, I do have an other count where yellow also has finished with the huge abc, and within c we could have technicly all the needed 5 waves down. Now it is becoming interesting, we need to comfortably then break resistances, and all pullbacks need to hold the support areas and not having sustained breaks to the downside meanwhile.
Trade active:
Scaling back-in 2x @ 7.66
Comment:
Chances for the yellow to drop lower now very very slim so I have removed that.
The price actions of previous several days are tremendiously challenging on the micro-level, as literally there are still 6-7 possibilities, which I am trying to track and took the 3 most probable outcome, white and orange. White having a sub-option which I am tracking as blue, but on the bigger scale it should NOT matter.
Long story short: the fib box should hold now for all scenarios on the near term between 8.03 and 7.39. Price does NOT have to pull back to theese levels, BUT theese are the support levels for a possibly soon arriving pullback.
Be aware, if price now goes higher I need to adjust the support box to the upside.
Bit more detailed: Price action fighting around the 50/52 day SMA, so far we are above the 9day SMA and 21day EMA, which likely to provide at least temporary supports later. The 180/200 day still far away, so it does not interferee for likely a while.
We COULD deal with an undershooting b wave (orange), OR it could be the 5th wave of the previous yellow route to finish off the downmovement, therefore I am tracking from that lows fib levels and extensions and targets, while trying to count movements to the upside as a starting point. Even than the challenge is it is likely would be some shape of a diagonal, as constantly morphing between 3 count and 5 count moves. In the ultra-micro-short term I might see it to hit 8.72-8.92 before the pullback would arrive.
The price actions of previous several days are tremendiously challenging on the micro-level, as literally there are still 6-7 possibilities, which I am trying to track and took the 3 most probable outcome, white and orange. White having a sub-option which I am tracking as blue, but on the bigger scale it should NOT matter.
Long story short: the fib box should hold now for all scenarios on the near term between 8.03 and 7.39. Price does NOT have to pull back to theese levels, BUT theese are the support levels for a possibly soon arriving pullback.
Be aware, if price now goes higher I need to adjust the support box to the upside.
Bit more detailed: Price action fighting around the 50/52 day SMA, so far we are above the 9day SMA and 21day EMA, which likely to provide at least temporary supports later. The 180/200 day still far away, so it does not interferee for likely a while.
We COULD deal with an undershooting b wave (orange), OR it could be the 5th wave of the previous yellow route to finish off the downmovement, therefore I am tracking from that lows fib levels and extensions and targets, while trying to count movements to the upside as a starting point. Even than the challenge is it is likely would be some shape of a diagonal, as constantly morphing between 3 count and 5 count moves. In the ultra-micro-short term I might see it to hit 8.72-8.92 before the pullback would arrive.
Trade active:
50/52 day + hourly support SMA (wave 4 target) scaling back in X2 @ 8.39
Trade active:
21day EMA + wave 4 target 2 scaling back in X2 @ 8.19
Trade active:
Scaling back-in X2 @ 8.03 (0.382 levels)
Trade active:
Scaling back-in X2 @ 7.76 (orange B 1st downtarget, between 0.5 - 1.618)
Comment:
So far no major change as support levels (yellow fib box) is holding. Just a very-early headsup: seemingly we already have a 5 wave down, altough I could count as the needed circle B (orange) pullback / white wave (2) pullback as a 3 wave move with an irregular flat, so very indecisive. The point is therefore the support area to hold.
It can be also a bigger "sideway-ish" correction seemingly leaving the fib box, but then reentering.
Because of the 5 wave down, and also because a few DM-ed me want to short it, i put back a possible yellow route, essentially price then should not break above the resistance area; above 8.30 I would be skeptical about the yellow heavily.
It can be also a bigger "sideway-ish" correction seemingly leaving the fib box, but then reentering.
Because of the 5 wave down, and also because a few DM-ed me want to short it, i put back a possible yellow route, essentially price then should not break above the resistance area; above 8.30 I would be skeptical about the yellow heavily.
Comment:
*8.45 is the last reliable short setup for a yellow 1-2 setup within the yellow c of (v) of (5) of C . For the orange/white the fib box should hold now.
Comment:
No major change, wbd tried twice a breakout, which so far failed, we even had a fakeout. short sellers turned back on the last accceptable 1-2 setup(yellow route), however we are holding support still, so ranging still.
White getting less likely, Orange and yellow still more probable. A sustained break below 7.39 would put way more emphasize to the yellow route, which would postpone the bottoming, likely visiting $6 region as a first target.
White getting less likely, Orange and yellow still more probable. A sustained break below 7.39 would put way more emphasize to the yellow route, which would postpone the bottoming, likely visiting $6 region as a first target.
Trade active:
Scaling back-in X2 @ 7.48 (0.786 levels)
Comment:
Current white route invalidated. Yellow gained heavy probabilities now, in fact I would primarly expect to play that route out. Technicly the orange is not invalidated but it is a hopium route now. It can turn out to be an irregular flat structure, but probabilities are very very slim. Simply cut too deep. Also it has to go above 9.35 now to have it "validated", BUT be aware that might be already very near to a top for it, so...
Shorters/sellers doing a great job so far.
Shorters/sellers doing a great job so far.
Comment:
So far I can identify a 3 count move only as well to the downside, and previously we had a 3 count move to the upside. It can still be an "undershooting" b wave in the overall wave 4 correction to the "upside". In order for that to be still valid we should not really drop below 6.78.
More likely however, we are in the yellow scenario, in which so far I think we are in wave circle 3 already in wave c of (5) of (C) of 5 of big C of huge wave 2 or wave B. Overall long term, decade view idea is not changing, the risk/reward is getting excellent.
On the Daily we are building a nice divergence on the MACD/RSI, should it hold it supports more the orange route, on the weekly its not yet present, which supports more the yellow route. MA's are quiet weak for now, we are below all meaningful ones.
Currently we are in a "no-mans land". It has now a lot to prove for the orange route, several resistances upcoming.
More likely however, we are in the yellow scenario, in which so far I think we are in wave circle 3 already in wave c of (5) of (C) of 5 of big C of huge wave 2 or wave B. Overall long term, decade view idea is not changing, the risk/reward is getting excellent.
On the Daily we are building a nice divergence on the MACD/RSI, should it hold it supports more the orange route, on the weekly its not yet present, which supports more the yellow route. MA's are quiet weak for now, we are below all meaningful ones.
Currently we are in a "no-mans land". It has now a lot to prove for the orange route, several resistances upcoming.
Comment:
I have simplified the chart a bit. Now we do have a chance for reversal, either as per the orange, where we go up from the lows as an irregular flat (undershooting b wave), OR I could count a truncated wave 5, altough the upside momentum so far is not convincing enough, but not invalid.
Yellow would suggest we are putting in the wave circle 4 now to the top for that the next fib box as a resistance should not be broken in a sustained way.
Breaking above that, and breaking above the yellow dotted falling trendline would drasticly lower the chance of the yellow route; and taking out 8.80 would invalidate it complelety, leaving the orange and this possible white only.
Important for the orange and white NOT to have an other low, otherwise the white is resetting.
Yellow would suggest we are putting in the wave circle 4 now to the top for that the next fib box as a resistance should not be broken in a sustained way.
Breaking above that, and breaking above the yellow dotted falling trendline would drasticly lower the chance of the yellow route; and taking out 8.80 would invalidate it complelety, leaving the orange and this possible white only.
Important for the orange and white NOT to have an other low, otherwise the white is resetting.
Comment:
Now this is definetely looking something interesting, impulsive, fast paced, so not something like a correction or a bigger diagonal would do. This behaviour is typical for a wave 3, it just fits, also it has reached the 200% extension so far.
Now, a wave 4 pullback should arrive, and in fact it might have started already, the small yellow support box added for that, which then should not break for the white. For the orange count it can break, and the bigger fib box below that becoming relevant in that case.
I marked with small dotted lines the possible (but not too probable) upward extensions still for the wave 3, if it wants to climb higher, those are the levels to watch, but be aware, then we need to adjust the support levels as those are moving areas now.
Recieved a DM if the lows could be in overall: early to tell, thats the white count, but still a lot to prove, as so far it is only a 3 count move up still. We would need a bigger 5 up, completing a bigger wave 1, and then a 3 count pullback to a later support zone, which holds.
Now, a wave 4 pullback should arrive, and in fact it might have started already, the small yellow support box added for that, which then should not break for the white. For the orange count it can break, and the bigger fib box below that becoming relevant in that case.
I marked with small dotted lines the possible (but not too probable) upward extensions still for the wave 3, if it wants to climb higher, those are the levels to watch, but be aware, then we need to adjust the support levels as those are moving areas now.
Recieved a DM if the lows could be in overall: early to tell, thats the white count, but still a lot to prove, as so far it is only a 3 count move up still. We would need a bigger 5 up, completing a bigger wave 1, and then a 3 count pullback to a later support zone, which holds.
Comment:
I have added some micro-support/micro count; as long as the previous swing low is not taken out, further upside could be possible, just less probable now. For that, the next level to watch would be:
9.07 -> 1.382 big extension for the orange C wave, also a wave 3 common target.
9.17; 9.40 -> further smaller extension for the blue-ish, which just an extension for white wave (3)
9.46 -> 1.618 big extension for orange C; wave 3 common target
9.59; 9.67 -> further direct extension for orange C wave, highly extended wave 3 (getting less likely it is a wave 3), also the start of the resistance for orange wave (iv) topping.
9.07 -> 1.382 big extension for the orange C wave, also a wave 3 common target.
9.17; 9.40 -> further smaller extension for the blue-ish, which just an extension for white wave (3)
9.46 -> 1.618 big extension for orange C; wave 3 common target
9.59; 9.67 -> further direct extension for orange C wave, highly extended wave 3 (getting less likely it is a wave 3), also the start of the resistance for orange wave (iv) topping.
Comment:
Price started a sudden downtrend, on which likely the lose of the NBA rights was a catalizator.
Now, the primarly support box (smallest) already failed, which would have allowed an extended overall circle wave 1 to the upside.
What we do have left:
-modified white route, but fragile!!! For that the lower support box must hold from 7.70 being the 0.618 retracement, down to 7.38, if thats failing the next support is 7.25 for a possible turnaround, but that is already unreliable (hopium)
-orange route, where goes to a wave iv top, it is an abc, where we likely still in the a wave, within that we are in a smaller abc, exactly in the c wave being 5 waves, but we need a 4-5, and likely we are in the wave 4 now, for that to still be valid, price cannot have a sustained break below 7.66.
-new yellow route, i just added yesterday after the horrible routes, which shiftes the wavecounts to the right, meaning, the previous runup was a yellow wave (iv) hence the only 3 wave move to the upside, and it has started the downtrend to complete wave 5, and we are in the very very early stages. For that 6.99 must break to the downside.
Now, the primarly support box (smallest) already failed, which would have allowed an extended overall circle wave 1 to the upside.
What we do have left:
-modified white route, but fragile!!! For that the lower support box must hold from 7.70 being the 0.618 retracement, down to 7.38, if thats failing the next support is 7.25 for a possible turnaround, but that is already unreliable (hopium)
-orange route, where goes to a wave iv top, it is an abc, where we likely still in the a wave, within that we are in a smaller abc, exactly in the c wave being 5 waves, but we need a 4-5, and likely we are in the wave 4 now, for that to still be valid, price cannot have a sustained break below 7.66.
-new yellow route, i just added yesterday after the horrible routes, which shiftes the wavecounts to the right, meaning, the previous runup was a yellow wave (iv) hence the only 3 wave move to the upside, and it has started the downtrend to complete wave 5, and we are in the very very early stages. For that 6.99 must break to the downside.
If in-deed we had the bottom in place, we should witness maybe one or two more smaller swing low to the green support box as being the 4th wave, and then a swing up taking out the previous swing high. Landing 12.30 USD - 13 USD somewhere in between. Be aware though we have arrived to a structural resistance though.