Long
XAUUSD Weekly: ABC Pullback Into Fib Zone
Gold is still holding a strong recovery structure after the aggressive bullish move from the lower base. However, from Kelly’s view, the market is now trading near a short-term sell reaction zone, which means the next weekly move may not be a straight continuation higher.
The key idea is simple: gold may correct through an ABC structure first, then look for a new bullish reaction around the Fibonacci buy zone.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold created a powerful upside move from the 4,000 area and reached the 4,430–4,450 region before slowing down. After such a strong move, the current reaction near 4,376 suggests buyers are no longer pushing with the same momentum.
Price is now sitting close to the Sell wave C zone around 4,380–4,400. This is an important area because if gold fails to break above it, sellers may create a corrective move lower.
The first support to watch is 4,317. If this level breaks, gold may continue the ABC correction towards the 4,220–4,240 area, where the chart marks the End wave ABC / Buy zone.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,380–4,400: Sell wave C and short-term resistance zone
◌ 4,376: current price reaction area
◌ 4,317: key support and first bearish checkpoint
◌ 4,220–4,240: End wave ABC / Fibonacci buy zone
◌ 4,440–4,460: recent high resistance area
◌ Below 4,220: area where the bullish recovery setup weakens
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to have completed a strong bullish impulse from the lower structure. After that, the current movement may develop into an ABC correction.
Wave A may start from the current sell reaction area.
Wave B may create a short rebound around 4,317.
Wave C may continue lower towards 4,220–4,240, where the Fibonacci buy zone is located.
If wave C completes around this zone and buyers defend it, gold may prepare for another bullish recovery phase later in the week.
This means Kelly will not chase buy positions near the current high. The better setup is to wait for the correction to finish and watch the reaction around the Fibonacci support zone.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for gold to reject from the Sell wave C zone and correct lower into support.
Sell reaction zone: 4,380–4,400 if bearish confirmation appears
Stop loss: above the confirmed rejection high or above 4,420
Take profit 1: 4,317
Take profit 2: 4,220–4,240
Buy scenario after correction: wait for price to reach the End wave ABC / Buy zone and show bullish confirmation.
Buy zone: 4,220–4,240 if bullish confirmation appears
Stop loss: below the confirmed wave C low
Take profit 1: 4,317
Take profit 2: 4,380–4,400
Take profit 3: 4,440–4,460 if bullish momentum returns
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks above 4,400 and holds strongly, the ABC correction may be delayed. In that case, price may retest the recent high zone first before any deeper pullback appears.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, the weekly structure is still bullish in the bigger picture, but the short-term setup is showing correction risk. Gold is near resistance after a strong rally, so patience is important.
The cleaner plan is to wait for the ABC pullback. If gold reaches 4,220–4,240 and buyers defend the zone, the next bullish recovery may become much stronger.
Gold may correct first.
If the Fibonacci buy zone holds, the next recovery wave can continue.
Share your view below.
Short
Hellena | GOLD (4H): LONG toward the 4449.71 resistance area.The previous GOLD scenario remains broadly valid, although the internal wave structure requires a minor adjustment.
The smaller wave "3" extended and completed significantly higher, around 4448.99. I now consider the decline that followed to be the development of the smaller corrective wave "4".
However, the correction may not be complete yet. GOLD could continue lower toward the 4279.70 support area, where wave "4" may eventually form its bottom.
It is also possible that the corrective low is already close and the next advance will begin from current levels. For this reason, I am now watching closely for a reliable bullish reversal structure.
Once wave "4" is complete, I expect the smaller bullish wave "5" to develop. It should break above the 4448.99 high and complete intermediate wave "C", which is unfolding within higher-degree wave "B".
My nearest target is the resistance area around 4449.71. This is the first reference level for wave "5", although a decisive breakout above the previous high could allow the bullish move to extend further.
The invalidation level for the current impulsive wave count is 4168.50. Wave "4" should not enter the price territory of wave "1", so a sustained move below this level would require a complete reassessment of the scenario.
Gold is currently retreating as investors take profits following the recent strong rally. At the same time, weak U.S. employment data and unchanged producer prices have reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate increase in September. Therefore, the current correction does not rule out another bullish move once it is complete.
Manage your capital properly and wisely! Enter trades only based on reliable patterns! Long 
Gold (XAU) Continues Bullish Rebound MomentumGold prices (XAU/USD) OANDA:XAUUSD extended their rebound from the one-week low ($4,300) and gathered positive momentum at the start of the new trading week on Monday.
However, the precious metal is struggling to break through and sustain itself above the psychological threshold of $4,400 per troy ounce.
The rise in gold prices has been underpinned by a slump in US consumption data but capped by the threat of new sanctions from Washington and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
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✅ US Macro Front: Retail Sales Plunge -0.6% & U-Mich Consumer Sentiment Drops to 51
A series of softening US economic data continues to temper expectations regarding Federal Reserve aggressiveness:
- ⚡US Retail Sales Plunge (-0.6% m/m): The US Retail Sales report for July, released last Friday, recorded a monthly decline of -0.6%—the first drop in nine months and the largest monthly contraction since May of last year.
- ⚡U-Mich Consumer Sentiment Falls to 51: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for August slumped to 51 (down from 55.2 in July). This combination underscores cooling inflation and weakening US consumer purchasing power, keeping the US Dollar Index (DXY) on the defensive.
- ⚡Fed Rate Hike Bets Hold at 65%: Despite slowing consumption data, the CME Group FedWatch Tool shows the market still pricing in a ~65% probability of a Fed rate hike for the remainder of 2026, driven by risks of exogenous inflation from upstream commodities.
- ⚡Catalyst: Wednesday Night FOMC Minutes: Market attention this week is focused on the release of the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday night, which will shed light on internal divisions within the monetary policy committee.
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✅ XAU/USD Technical Analysis (Intraday H4)
From a technical perspective on the 4-hour (H4) chart, XAU/USD is consolidating its recovery above the $4,300 floor while testing supply resistance in the $4,400 range:
- ⚡Pre-FOMC Minutes "Wait-and-See" Stance: XAU/USD is trading within a compressed range between the $4,300 floor and the $4,400 ceiling. A clean breakout above $4,400 is required to pave the way for a move toward retesting the two-month high at $4,450.
- ⚡Significance of $4,300 Support: Holding firm above the $4,300 area preserves the short-term bullish recovery structure. A drop below $4,300 would invalidate the rebound scenario and trigger a corrective decline toward the $4,220 area. Long 
Hang Seng Rises on Tech Stock RallyHang Seng Update: IG:HANGSENG Hong Kong Stocks Rally Driven by Tech Surge
The Hang Seng Index (HSI) surged 1.5%—gaining 375 points to reach the 25,490 level—snapping a four-session losing streak as institutional investors engaged in mass buying of discounted hardware and technology platform stocks.
"Smart money" in Hong Kong reacted swiftly to a major fundamental catalyst: SenseTime Group ($0020) shares soared 8.2% after projecting a first-half 2026 net profit of RMB 500 million to RMB 700 million, marking its first-ever profit since listing on the Hong Kong exchange.
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✅ Chinese Regulator Approves Transsion Holdings IPO (132 Million H-Shares)
- HKEX Liquidity Magnet: The CSRC has officially granted approval for Transsion Holdings to list in Hong Kong. The issuance of 132 million H-shares by this dominant player in emerging-market mobile phones bolsters Hong Kong's capital market liquidity as a primary gateway for international capital.
- Geopolitical Caution & China Recovery Data: The HSI's gains remained measured as investors adopted a defensive stance ahead of the release of China's latest economic activity data (retail sales and industrial production), seeking to gauge the resilience of the macroeconomic recovery in the second half of 2026.
Heavy buying swept through key Hong Kong-listed companies this afternoon:
- Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC / $0981) Skyrocketed +3.3%: Leading the rally in the semiconductor manufacturing sector, the stock surged on the back of a spike in local wafer orders for AI servers and Transsion's hardware devices. - Tencent Holdings ($0700) surged +1.3% & Lenovo Group (+0.5%): Tencent rebounded following last week's correction, attracting foreign capital in anticipation of rising advertising revenue and gaming ecosystem growth, while Lenovo posted steady gains.
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✅ Market Structure
The chart displays a broad ranging pattern with several swing phases:
- Initial uptrend from July 16–31, moving from the 24,800 area to a peak of 26,216.9 (July 31)—the primary swing high.
- Subsequently, a gradual downtrend with a clear pattern of lower highs and lower lows drove the price down to 25,100 (August 14–15)—the most recent swing low.
- From that swing low, a sharp rally (large green candle) emerged, rapidly pushing the price to 25,483 (current price) and breaking back above the previous consolidation level.
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✅ RSI Indicator
- The RSI currently stands at 56.42, having just rebounded from the oversold zone (~38) toward neutral-bullish territory.
- This pattern indicates that short-term bullish momentum is rebuilding after the previous selling pressure subsided; the RSI is not yet overbought, leaving room for further gains.
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✅ Price Action Reading
- The broader structure since early August has been a downtrend characterized by lower highs and lower lows, meaning the dominant medium-term character remains bearish.
- However, the latest strong rally candle (from 25,100 to 25,483, with almost no retracement) signals a potential short-term reversal from the support area.
- The price is currently retesting the 25,483–25,500 consolidation level—a crucial juncture: if it successfully closes above this level and continues rising to 25,750, it would mark the first higher low since the downtrend began.
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Primary bias: NEUTRAL, leaning BULLISH in the short term — awaiting confirmation of a "higher low" structure.
⚡Short-term: Bullish bias, supported by a strong rally from the 25,100 support level and an RSI rebounding from oversold territory. Immediate targets: 25,750, followed by 25,950–26,000 if momentum persists.
⚡Medium-term: Bias remains bearish as long as the price fails to establish a "higher high" above the previous swing high (25,950–26,216) — the "lower high/lower low" pattern remains dominant.
⚡Bearish invalidation: A decisive breakout above 25,950 would confirm a shift to a bullish structure.
⚡Short-term bullish invalidation: Failure to hold above 25,400, followed by a drop below 25,100, would confirm the continuation of the downtrend toward the 24,807 support level. 
Long
XAUUSD: ABC Recovery Builds Above 4,330
Gold is showing a corrective recovery after the previous bearish wave completed near the lower area. From Kelly’s view, the current chart suggests that XAUUSD may be forming an ABC rebound structure, with buyers trying to defend the 4,330–4,340 zone before pushing price higher.
The key idea is simple: gold is recovering, but this still looks like an ABC correction, not a full bullish reversal yet.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold completed a sharp bearish 5-wave decline from the upper area, then reacted strongly from around 4,310. After that, price started to build a recovery structure and is now trading around 4,350.
The nearest important support is the Buy wave B zone around 4,330–4,340. If gold pulls back into this area and buyers continue to defend it, the market may form wave B and prepare for wave C higher.
The next resistance is around 4,360–4,370, marked as the sell scalping area. If price breaks above this zone with strength, the recovery may continue towards 4,395–4,405, where the chart marks the possible End wave ABC area.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,330–4,340: Buy wave B zone and key support
◌ 4,350: current price reaction area
◌ 4,360–4,370: sell scalping / short-term resistance
◌ 4,395–4,405: End wave ABC target zone
◌ 4,310: recent wave 5 low and structure protection
◌ Below 4,310: area where the recovery setup weakens
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to have completed a bearish 5-wave sequence before starting the current recovery.
Wave A is forming from the 4,310 low into the current reaction area.
Wave B may pull back into the 4,330–4,340 buy zone.
If wave B holds, wave C may continue higher towards 4,360–4,370 first, then 4,395–4,405.
This is why Kelly is watching the current recovery as an ABC correction. The move can still rise, but buyers need to protect the wave B support before the next bullish leg becomes cleaner.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for gold to pull back into the Buy wave B zone and show bullish confirmation.
Entry zone: 4,330–4,340 if bullish confirmation appears
Stop loss: below the confirmed wave B low or below 4,310
Take profit 1: 4,360–4,370
Take profit 2: 4,395–4,405
Take profit 3: higher only if price breaks the ABC target with strong momentum
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks below 4,310 with strong bearish pressure, the ABC recovery setup weakens. In that case, price may return to a deeper bearish continuation before building a new support base.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, gold is currently in a recovery phase after a bearish wave. The short-term structure supports an ABC rebound, but the clean setup is still to wait for price to confirm support around 4,330–4,340.
Gold may continue its corrective rise.
If Buy wave B holds, wave C may target the 4,395–4,405 area.
Share your view below.
Long 
EUR/USD Has Potential to Rise, Continuing the Main TrendEUR/USD attracted some follow-through buying interest during Friday's Asian trading session, building on a modest recovery from the psychological 1.1500 floor (a more than one-week low).
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✅ Transatlantic Monetary Divergence: Cooling US Inflation vs. ECB September Rate Hike Bets (+25 bps)
Monetary policy dynamics between Washington and Frankfurt are providing support for the Euro:
- Cooling US Inflation (PPI 0.0% & CPI 3.4%): Thursday's US Producer Price Index (PPI) report showed a flat 0.0% month-on-month reading (missing the +0.2% estimate), complementing the earlier release of cooling CPI data. This combination gives the Federal Reserve (Fed) room to hold benchmark interest rates steady at its September meeting, keeping the US Dollar Index (DXY) below its two-week peak.
- ECB Rate Hike Outlook (+25 bps): On the Euro side, markets are increasingly confident that the European Central Bank (ECB) will implement one final 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike at its September meeting. This is driven by Eurozone inflation remaining stubbornly above the 2% target, providing a yield differential boost for the Euro.
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✅ 4-Hour (H4) Chart Technical Analysis
Technically, on the 4-hour (H4) chart, EUR/USD is moving sideways (range-bound) within a two-week consolidation corridor:
- Two-Week Range-Bound Pattern: EUR/USD is trapped between 1.1500 and the 1.1620 ceiling. In the absence of a valid breakout, daily movements remain compressed.
- 1.1500 Resilience: Buyers successfully defending the psychological 1.1500 base keeps the short-term recovery structure intact. However, a clean break below 1.1500 would invalidate the rebound scenario and pave the way for a decline toward the next macro level at 1.1450. Gold Pulls Back from Highs; Potential for DeclineGold prices (XAU/USD) OANDA:XAUUSD extended their pullback from the two-month high (US$4,450) and traded lower for the second consecutive day during Friday's Asian session.
This downward trend dragged the precious metal to a new weekly low in the vicinity of US$4,300 per troy ounce.
Post-inflation data position adjustments were driven by a resurgence in the US Dollar's (USD) safe-haven status, fueled by escalating threats of extreme sanctions from Washington and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia's upstream energy facilities.
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✅ Geopolitical Escalation: Extreme Measures by Bessent, IRGC's Naqdi, and Houthi Drones Strike Aramco
Military confrontations and diplomatic rhetoric in the Middle East have reached a new threshold:
- ⚡Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s Declaration: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly stated that Washington is prepared to implement economic tightening measures and sanctions against Iran that are "unprecedented."
- ⚡Mohammad Reza Naqdi’s High-Cost Strategy: IRGC Senior Advisor Mohammad Reza Naqdi countered that Tehran is mathematically engineering the conflict to be so costly that future US administrations would not dare to undertake military action. Tehran's refusal to open the Strait of Hormuz, combined with claims of Houthi drone attacks striking Saudi Aramco oil refineries, has heightened the risk of a heated regional confrontation.
- ⚡Crude Oil Pressure from the Demand Side: Despite high military risks, crude oil prices faced downward pressure due to a surge in US crude inventories—which swelled beyond estimates—coupled with the prospect of sluggish global energy demand.
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✅ US Macro Landscape: Surprise PPI (0.0%), Cooling Fed Rate Hike Bets (65%) & Bank of Korea Accumulation
The easing of the Producer Price Index (PPI) provides strong evidence of declining upstream inflationary pressure:
- ⚡US PPI Cools in July (0.0% MoM & 4.7% YoY): The US PPI report released last Thursday showed a flat reading of 0.0% month-over-month (missing the +0.2% estimate), causing the annual producer inflation rate to slow to 4.7% year-over-year (down from 5.5% in June). This data complements the cooling CPI release (3.4% YoY), confirming that a disinflationary process is underway.
- ⚡Divergent Views Among FOMC Members: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee views recent price spikes as transitory—driven by tariffs and energy costs—and advocates for a patient (dovish) stance. Conversely, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack assesses that progress on inflation has been insufficient, leaving the door open for further interest rate hikes.
- ⚡Decline in Rate Hike Bets (65%): Based on Fed Funds futures contracts, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike for the remainder of 2026 has dropped to ~65% (a sharp decline from 85% last week).
- ⚡Central Bank Buying Support (SPDR / Bank of Korea): Official SEC filings confirm that the Bank of Korea held 679,765 shares of the SPDR Gold Trust (valued at ~USD 250.4 million) as of the end of June. This accumulation by global institutions and central banks provides a robust buffer that limits the risk of a deeper drop in gold prices.
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✅ XAU/USD Technical Analysis (Intraday)
From a technical standpoint, the XAU/USD pullback from the US$4,450 peak is testing a key retracement level before the market determines its direction heading into the weekend:
- ⚡Critical Fibonacci 38.2% Support Level (US$4,302): The US$4,300–US$4,302 zone (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) serves as the most crucial support base for buyers. As long as the spot price manages to close above US$4,300 at the close of trading this Friday evening, the current decline is classified purely as a healthy correction (bullish retracement).
- ⚡Risk of Further Breakdown: A clean break and daily close below US$4,300 would confirm the invalidation of the short-term uptrend and pave the way for an accelerated decline toward the 23.6% Fibonacci level at US$4,164.38. Short 
XAUUSD: Bearish Elliott Setup Below 4,410
Gold is showing signs of short-term weakness after failing to extend cleanly above the upper reaction area. From Kelly’s view, the current chart suggests that XAUUSD may be forming a bearish Elliott structure, with price now preparing for a possible continuation lower if the Sell wave 3 zone continues to hold.
The key idea is simple: gold may still rebound slightly, but the structure favours downside continuation while price remains below resistance.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold reacted strongly from the previous bullish move, but buyers are now losing momentum near the 4,380–4,400 area. Price is currently trading around 4,380, directly under the marked Sell wave 3 zone.
This area is important because it may act as the next bearish reaction point. If gold retests 4,395–4,410 and sellers defend that zone, the market may continue lower towards the 4,330–4,345 buy zone first.
If bearish pressure expands, the next deeper target is around 4,270–4,285, where the chart marks the possible End wave 5 area.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,395–4,410: Sell wave 3 zone and main resistance
◌ 4,380: current price reaction area
◌ 4,360–4,365: short-term support / first bearish checkpoint
◌ 4,330–4,345: buy zone and wave 3 target area
◌ 4,270–4,285: End wave 5 target zone
◌ Above 4,420: area where the bearish setup starts to weaken
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold may be starting a new bearish 5-wave sequence after the recent bullish recovery slowed down.
Wave 1 may be forming from the current rejection area.
Wave 2 may create a small rebound back into the 4,395–4,410 sell zone.
Wave 3 could then push price lower towards the 4,330–4,345 buy zone.
Wave 4 may create a short corrective rebound from that support.
Wave 5 may continue towards 4,270–4,285 if sellers keep control.
This is why Kelly is not treating the current rebound as a strong bullish continuation yet. The market is still below a key resistance zone, and the Elliott structure is leaning bearish.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for gold to retest the Sell wave 3 zone and show bearish confirmation.
Sell zone: 4,395–4,410 if rejection appears
Stop loss: above the confirmed rejection high or above 4,420
Take profit 1: 4,360
Take profit 2: 4,330–4,345
Take profit 3: 4,270–4,285
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks above 4,420 and holds strongly, the bearish Elliott setup weakens. In that case, price may continue a larger bullish recovery before a new sell structure becomes clear.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, gold is now in a bearish reaction structure. The current price is below the main sell zone, and the next clean setup is to wait for rejection before following the downside wave.
Gold may still bounce first.
But if 4,395–4,410 holds as resistance, the next Elliott move may continue lower towards 4,330 and 4,280.
Share your view below.
Short 
Long
Gold XAU Sees Correction as Dollar Index StrengthensGold prices (XAU/USD) underwent a technical correction after briefly touching a new high—not seen since June 5—in the US$4,450 per troy ounce area during Thursday's Asian trading session.
The initial bullish reaction to cooling US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data quickly faded. Profit-taking was triggered by a surge in crude oil prices—which reignited fears of a secondary inflation spiral (energy-driven inflation)—and persistent market bets on Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate tightening before year-end.
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✅ US Macro Reality: CPI Cools to 3.4%, Yet CME FedWatch Locks in 80% Rate Hike Odds
US macroeconomic dynamics present a contrast between disinflationary easing and the threat of upstream energy costs:
- 🔸US CPI Readings (3.4% YoY & 2.5% Core): The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that July headline CPI cooled to 3.4% YoY (down from 3.5%), while Core CPI rose 2.5% YoY (in line with estimates). This data—combined with a slowing Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report—provides the Fed with comfortable room to hold interest rates steady at the September meeting.
- 🔸Persistent CME FedWatch Rate Hike Bets (80%): Nevertheless, the CME Group FedWatch Tool indicates that market participants still price in a nearly 80% probability that the Fed will raise the benchmark interest rate (+25 bps) during the remainder of 2026. This "higher-for-longer" outlook supports the US Dollar's (USD) rebound from its post-CPI swing low and triggers outflows from non-yielding assets like gold.
- 🔸Tonight's PPI & Jobless Claims Data Highlights: The North American session tonight will be driven by the release of Producer Price Index (PPI) data and US Initial Jobless Claims (at 19:30 WIB), alongside speeches by FOMC officials.
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✅ The Hormuz Narrative War: Trump's "Full Control" Claim vs. Iran's Demands
Escalating rhetoric in the Middle East continues to inject a war risk premium into energy commodity markets:
- 🔸Trump's Claim vs. Tehran's Defiance: President Donald Trump has claimed that the US military holds "full control" over the Strait of Hormuz. Conversely, Tehran has firmly retorted that the strategic waterway will remain completely closed until all conditions regarding compensation and the lifting of sanctions are met by Washington.
- 🔸Houthi Escalation in the Red Sea: Yemen's Houthi militia has intensified missile attacks on commercial fleets and Saudi tankers in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, keeping the crude oil risk premium firmly at daily highs and fueling exogenous inflation.
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🛠️ XAU/USD Technical Analysis
From a technical standpoint, last night's close above the 100-day SMA and the break past the 50% retracement level confirm constructive momentum, although the RSI indicator (67.44) suggests conditions are becoming overstretched:
- 🔸Upside Resistance Map: Further gains beyond the daily high of US$4,450 will immediately face the 200-day SMA barrier at US$4,502, followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level at US$4,525.18. A clean break above this barrier would pave the way for an explosive rally toward the US$4,683–US$4,885 range.
- 🔸Downside Support Outlook: Immediate support is anchored by the 100-day SMA at US$4,387. Sustained selling pressure breaking below the US$4,400–US$4,387 zone would be required to validate a scenario of a deeper downside correction toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level (US$4,302) and the 23.6% Fibonacci level (US$4,164.38). Short 
GBP/USD In Bearish Trading BiasGBP/USD OANDA:GBPUSD has traded with a negative bias for two consecutive sessions, moving below the 1.3500 round figure throughout Thursday's Asian session.
Institutional market participants are holding back on aggressive directional speculation ahead of the UK's second-quarter GDP report, due later today.
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✅ Macro & Geopolitical Landscape: Post-CPI DXY Rebound & UK Q2 GDP Anticipation
Transatlantic fundamental dynamics present a clash between monetary expectations and commodity supply tensions:
- Safe-Haven US Dollar Rebound: The post-CPI sell-off in the US Dollar was quickly halted by a resurgence in geopolitical risk premiums. The standoff between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz, alongside threats from Houthi militias in the Red Sea, is keeping crude oil prices volatile.
- Today's UK Q2 GDP Catalyst: The Pound Sterling's (GBP) resilience hinges on the release of UK second-quarter GDP data (alongside Industrial and Manufacturing Production figures). Solid GDP numbers would confirm the UK economy's resilience under the Bank of England's (BoE) interest rate regime, potentially giving Sterling the boost needed to reclaim the 1.3500 level.
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✅ 4-Hour (H4) Chart Technical Analysis
From a macro-structural perspective, this movement is classified as a bullish consolidation phase following a prolonged rally that began in late July:
- Oscillator & Momentum Landscape: The RSI (14) indicator, hovering near the neutral 50 line, confirms that short-term directional momentum is easing. This suggests a continuation of the consolidation phase rather than a sudden, extreme directional breakout.
- Testing Pivot Levels at 1.3491 & 1.3415: Weakness below the 1.3491 pivot area risks triggering further technical selling towards 1.3415. As long as the spot price holds above that level, Cable's short-term bullish structure remains technically intact.
- A clean break below 1.3415 would open the way for a deeper corrective phase on the H4 chart. Nikkei Update: Japanese Stocks Rally on Cooling US CPI DataIG:NIKKEI Japanese Stocks Rally on Cooling US CPI Data
The benchmark Nikkei 225 index surged 1.1% to break past the 68,000 level, while the broader Topix index jumped 1.0% to reach 4,180—with the latter officially setting an all-time high in the history of the Japanese capital market.
"Smart money" across Asia-Pacific launched a massive buying spree following the release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July, which showed a cooling trend.
This data effectively reduced the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September to just 40% (down from 50%).
Domestically, Japan's Producer Price Index (PPI) for July eased to 7.2% year-on-year (below the 7.4% estimate), demonstrating that domestic manufacturing input cost pressures are increasingly under control, thereby fostering a combination of very healthy corporate margins.
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✅ Japan's Producer Price Index (PPI) Eases to 7.2% (Below 7.4% Projection)
- Easing Manufacturing Input Costs: A Bank of Japan report confirmed that Japan's PPI for July slowed to 7.2% year-on-year (lower than June's 7.3% and the 7.4% consensus).
- Corporate Margin Expansion: This decline in producer-level inflation provides concrete evidence that domestic industrial raw material costs are contained, bolstering the potential for net profit margin expansion among Japanese manufacturing and hardware companies in the third quarter of 2026.
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A massive wave of wholesale buying swept through major Tokyo-listed companies this afternoon:
- 🔸Taiyo Yuden ($6976) and Murata Mfg (+7.4%): Leading the rally in the passive components sector, Taiyo Yuden surged 8.6% as both companies benefited from a spike in orders for multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) driven by global demand for AI servers and smart hardware.
- 🔸Ibiden Co (+7.3%), Kioxia Holdings (+6.2%), and Advantest Corp (+5.3%): Advanced circuit board maker Ibiden, flash memory giant Kioxia, and chip testing equipment manufacturer Advantest all saw their shares soar amid an influx of foreign capital, validating the structural recovery of the hardware supply chain.
- 🔸Mitsubishi UFJ Financial ($8306) +1.6% and Mizuho Financial (+1.7%): Major banking stocks posted steady gains, acting as a stabilizing anchor that secured a record high for the Topix index. 
Long
Short 
XAUUSD: Bullish Trend Still Holds Above 4,280
Gold is still holding a strong bullish structure after the sharp recovery from the lower accumulation base. From Kelly’s view, the current chart suggests that XAUUSD may be moving through a short-term ABC correction before continuing higher towards the Fibonacci resistance target.
The key idea is simple: gold remains bullish overall, but price may need a healthy pullback before the next upside wave becomes cleaner.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold made a strong impulsive move from the lower area and reached the 4,390–4,430 region. After that, price started to slow down near the Sell wave B zone, which is normal after a strong rally.
Current price is trading around 4,394. This area is close to short-term resistance, so Kelly would not chase buys directly here. A controlled correction into support would create a better setup.
The first reaction zone is around 4,340–4,360, marked as the Buy scalping area. If the correction becomes deeper, the stronger support is around 4,270–4,290, where the chart marks the Fibonacci buy zone and possible end of wave C.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,390–4,410: Sell wave B / current resistance reaction area
◌ 4,340–4,360: Buy scalping zone
◌ 4,270–4,290: Fibonacci buy zone / possible end wave C
◌ 4,520–4,540: Fibonacci 2.618 target resistance
◌ Below 4,270: area where the bullish setup starts to weaken
◌ Above 4,410: stronger bullish continuation confirmation
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to have completed a strong bullish impulse and may now be forming a corrective ABC structure.
Wave A may be the first pullback from the recent high.
Wave B is reacting near the 4,390–4,410 resistance area.
Wave C may still pull price lower towards 4,340–4,360 or deeper into 4,270–4,290.
If wave C ends inside the Fibonacci buy zone and buyers defend it, gold may continue into the next bullish wave towards the 4,520–4,540 Fibonacci resistance target.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for gold to correct into support and show bullish confirmation.
Entry zone 1: 4,340–4,360 if bullish reaction appears
Entry zone 2: 4,270–4,290 if deeper ABC correction happens
Stop loss: below the confirmed wave C low or below 4,250
Take profit 1: 4,410
Take profit 2: 4,450
Take profit 3: 4,520–4,540
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks below 4,270 with strong bearish pressure, the bullish ABC setup weakens. In that case, price may need more time to rebuild support before the next upward continuation.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, the main trend is still bullish, but the market is now near a resistance zone after a strong rally. The better plan is patience.
If gold corrects into 4,340–4,360 or 4,270–4,290 and buyers defend the zone, the next bullish wave may continue towards the Fibonacci 2.618 target.
Gold remains in a bullish structure.
A clean ABC pullback may prepare the next move higher.
Share your view below.
Long 
Gold Has Potential for Further GainsGold prices (XAU/USD) OANDA:XAUUSD regained fresh buying momentum during Wednesday's Asian trading session, reclaiming the ground above US$4,400 and edging closer to the two-month high (US$4,435) touched yesterday.
The bullion's rally was underpinned by a sell-off in the US Dollar (USD) following the release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data confirming cooling inflation, alongside elevated geopolitical risk premiums spanning from the Middle East to the Korean Peninsula.
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✅ US Macro Landscape: Cooling CPI Data Hits USD; Setting the Stage for the Fed Meeting
The released US consumer inflation report served as a major volatility trigger for foreign exchange and bond markets:
- 🔸Cooling US CPI Inflation: The July US CPI report showed inflation slowing in line with or below market expectations. This confirms that consumer price pressures are beginning to cool following the labor market slowdown (after the -23K NFP contraction), dampening speculation that the Federal Reserve will act aggressively in the near term.
- 🔸US Dollar & Bond Yield Sell-off: The easing CPI pace triggered a drop in short-term US government bond yields and weighed on the US Dollar Index (DXY). These conditions provided fuel for gold, a non-yielding asset.
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✅ Geopolitical Flare-ups: Commerzbank Analysis on Hormuz & North Korean Missile Launches
Military risk landscapes across the globe are heating up, locking in "war risk premiums" for safe-haven assets:
- 🔸Commerzbank Analysis on Reciprocal Demands: Financial institution Commerzbank highlighted that hopes for a US-Iran peace deal are fading as diplomatic stances harden. An advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, asserted that the Strait of Hormuz would not be opened unless Tehran's conditions regarding reparations are met.
- 🔸North Korean Missile Launch & Taiwan Tensions: Geopolitical risks have heightened following North Korea's ballistic missile launch early this morning, ahead of joint US-South Korea military exercises. Simultaneously, Taiwan has condemned China's planned naval drills off the island's east coast, reinforcing capital flows into safe-haven assets.
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✅ XAU/USD Technical Analysis (Intraday H4)
Technically, on the 4-hour (H4) chart, XAU/USD has confirmed a bullish continuation pattern above the psychological base of US$4,400:
- 🔸Bullish Trend Dominance: Gold's ability to hold firm above US$4,400 confirms that buyers (bulls) are in full control. The path of least resistance remains to the upside.
- 🔸Acceleration Target: A clean break above the daily highs of US$4,435–US$4,440 would clear the technical hurdles, paving the way toward the key psychological target of US$4,500. Long 
Hellena | GOLD (4H): SHORT to the 4162.99 support area.Following the strong advance in GOLD, the current corrective structure appears to be approaching its final stage.
The price is developing within higher-degree wave "B". Inside it, intermediate wave "C" is nearing completion through the final stages of the smaller wave "5".
However, one more move higher cannot be ruled out. If the smaller wave "5" is not complete yet, GOLD may continue toward the resistance area around 4350.62. This is where the entire corrective structure could eventually form its top.
Once waves "B", "C", and "5" are complete, I expect GOLD to reverse and begin moving lower. My first target is the support area around 4162.99.
The key reference within this area is the smaller wave "1" high at 4168.50. The price previously broke decisively above this level, so the same zone may become the first significant support during a pullback.
This setup is not intended to capture the entire potential decline in advance. I first want to see how the price reacts around 4162.99 before evaluating the developing structure and any lower targets.
Gold is ending the week with strong gains, so taking a position against the current upward momentum requires particular caution. The upcoming U.S. employment report may also cause additional volatility by affecting expectations for Federal Reserve policy, the U.S. dollar, and Treasury yields.
Manage your capital properly and wisely! Enter trades only based on reliable patterns! Short 
Hellena | OIL (4H): LONG toward the unfilled gap area at 87.59.OIL continues to develop within a complex corrective structure. According to the current wave count, the larger wave "W" has already been completed, while the next part of the correction, wave "X", is now unfolding.
Within wave "X", the price is developing wave "B" of the higher degree. However, the intermediate bearish wave "C" is probably not complete yet.
For this reason, I allow for another decline toward the 72.21 support area before the main bullish move begins. This is where intermediate wave "C" may end and create a foundation for the next advance.
Nevertheless, the bullish scenario remains my priority. An unfilled gap is located around 87.59, and the price has not yet returned to close it completely. This provides an additional reason to expect another move toward this area.
My first bullish target is the 86.10-88.70 resistance area, with 87.59 as the main reference level. The unfilled gap coincides with a significant technical area from which the previous sharp decline began.
I am considering long positions only. An entry may be considered from current levels if a reliable bullish pattern appears, or after wave "C" completes around the 72.21 support area. The second option requires waiting for a clear price reaction within the support zone and using limit orders with strict risk control.
Uncertainty surrounding the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is currently supporting oil prices. At the same time, expectations of recovering supply flows and rising global inventories may limit the upside. The fundamental backdrop therefore remains volatile, although short-term supply risks currently favor higher prices.
Manage your capital properly and wisely! Enter trades only based on reliable patterns! Long 
Long
Gold Still in Strong Bullish MomentumGold prices (XAU/USD) OANDA:XAUUSD posted gains for the third consecutive day—marking the fifth day of positive movement in the last six sessions—surging to touch their highest level since June 5 at the US$4,435 per troy ounce mark during Tuesday's Asian trading session.
A massive wave of buying in the precious metal continues to be driven by the lingering impact of last Friday's US employment report (NFP), which confirmed a smaller-than-expected contraction in the workforce (-23,000), thereby tempering expectations for rapid monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.
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✅ Intense Geopolitics: Iran Rules Out Dialogue Until 2029 & Houthi Bab el-Mandeb Blockade
Despite softening short-term interest rate expectations, exogenous geopolitical risks have sent upstream energy prices soaring and triggered structural safe-haven demand:
🔸 Tehran Rejects Trump Until 2029: The Iranian government has officially ruled out the possibility of future diplomatic negotiations with US President Donald Trump. Tehran stated it would only return to the negotiating table after Trump's term ends on January 20, 2029, dimming hopes for a peaceful resolution and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
🔸 Houthi Blockade at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait: Commercial shipping traffic at the Red Sea chokepoint (Bab el-Mandeb) remains paralyzed due to the Houthi militia's tight blockade targeting Saudi Arabia.
🔸 Oil Price & US Bond Yield Rebound: The sharp overnight surge in crude oil prices—triggered by Tehran's stance—has reignited fears of an exogenous inflationary spiral (energy-driven inflation). This dynamic is supporting US government bond yields and preventing a drastic slide in the US Dollar (USD).
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✅ US Macro Calendar: Consolidation Ahead of US CPI & PPI
Institutional market participants are preparing for the release of key US inflation data, which will serve as the week's major volatility trigger:
🔸 US CPI (Tomorrow, Wednesday): The Consumer Price Index release will determine whether the disinflationary trend in the US remains intact amidst high upstream energy prices.
🔸 US PPI (Thursday): The Producer Price Index on Thursday will complete the picture regarding industrial production cost pressures. Softer data would support the case for Fed rate cuts, whereas "hot" data would validate the monetary committee's hawkish rhetoric.
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✅ XAU/USD Technical Analysis (Intraday H4)
Technically, on the 4-hour (H4) chart, XAU/USD has confirmed a very solid bullish expansion, successfully clearing all supply barriers established in mid-summer:
🔸Bullish Trend Dominance: Gold's successful breach of the US$4,333 Fibonacci level confirms that buyers (bulls) are in full control of market direction. As long as the spot price holds above US$4,333, the technical uptrend structure remains very healthy.
🔸Resistance Test Scenario: A clean break above the daily highs of US$4,435–US$4,440 would pave the way for further expansion toward testing the key psychological target in the US$4,500 range. Long 
