appears to be the bearish retest. rejecting. had a momentary lapse of bullish judgement a couple days ago lol back to bear only. nuke it.
alright talked myself bullish here at htf support. thesis being if bulls can't hold here, it's a long way down. sentiment seems to be uber bearish, which typically occurs at range lows before a move up. the time to short was up around $2.1k, not here. RR favors bulls. multiple TPs. TP1: $1860s TP2: 1930-70s TP3: 2000-70s one. last. ride.
expecting a major sell off here. at a major resistance level. vix at lowest level in a long time. dxy at a significant support. think this is going to catch a ton of people off guard. TP1 $24.8k TP2 $24k
hoping for somee retests to start the week. currently lacking some volume, but the overnight local bottom confirmation adds confidence to this setup. still expecting a sell off on the back half of the week.
prepare for ze giga nuke. btc pairs look particularly topped. not to mention, when crypto twitter calls for alt season.. short everything under the sun. TP1 1800 TP2 1600 it's over.
still think the rr is shorts up here. never like when support structures aren't swept. imo, this last leg would have been much healthier we swept them beforehand. these almost always eventually get tagged. already swept the high this morning. now sweep the weekly and daily pivots. then we can think about continuation upward. gotta keep in mind we're...
shorted eth this morning after the cpi pop. htf looks like poo. was expecting btc to pop more after a positive cpi reading, but looks like it's gonna fully retrace the morning run. ethbtc htf looks awful. still think alts are the short here.
struggling in the 4k zone again. looks to be sitting up for a wave c down to get us to our potential wave 2 completion zone. great RR @ 6.9. worth punting shorts here. will cut if rsi eq holds.
btc is struggling to break this eq and feels like it's going to hold. had a similar setup with eth last week, where we refused to drop. on 12h (posted in comments) we have rsi holding bull side eq and AO has reset. as much as we wanted the drop, i think this is the safer RR play. RR at 5.06 to ride to $30k.
aave 3d looks pretty decent here. long consolidation after a local high back in early feb. much earlier than everything else. we think we need to wait and see if we can flip that poc ~$97. 3d rsi appears to be flipping eq back to bullish. what concerns me here is both bitcoin and eth are approaching significant resistance zones. will be keeping an eye on...
still looking for $25.2 or potentially lower. not the best RR box to rid to $25.2, but it's great RR if it dumps much further. think we'll see a heavy reaction at $25.2, but could see this running all the way to $19.
ltc looks like an easy short here. rising wedge breakdown was bought up, but continued to struggle here at the horizontal pivot. expecting a big sell off to get us down to that wave c target ~ $55. invalidation above local resistance.
tweeted this channel range going into the weekend, but forgot to post it on here. as long as we're above eq or reclaiming on daily tf's, i think your bias has to remain bullish. futures just opened. looks like it wants to at least attempt the high.
alts looks better here than btc, imo. all currently ranging in their respective channels. leaning towards the upwards movement here on eth, but if it stalls out today, then it's likely going to lose the channel by tomorrow's weekly close. i'm currently long here, but will cut we we chop around all day. hourly rsi break above eq would add confidence to...
actually long matic here from the divergence at the bottom of the channel. think markets range over the weekend. plenty of scalp opportunities. planning to tp around $1.16 and assess from there.
shorted matic here. looks weak compared to other majors. stop technically already moved to BE as we're in the middle of powell's conference.
link wave b seems complete here. think this revisits the local low. mirror target of wave A. expecting it to also mirror the time frame.
interesting chart here. we have spx/nq1!, the bottom formed in nov '21. this was a great 'exit all markets' signal. local top was jan '23, which was a great 'risk on' signal. now we're in a potential wave 2 zone with rsi hitting oversold for the first time since 2020. i think this will turn into another macro 'exit all markets' signal.