NOV trade ideas
Once in a Lifetime Opportunity and the Psychology behind itOnce in a Lifetime Opportunity and the Psychology behind it
There are moments in the market that happen so rarely , they feel almost mythical when they finally arrive. Novo Nordisk NYSE:NVO has just given us one of those moments.
If you’ve been following my work, you might remember my previous article where I warned that NVO was approaching a historically significant long-term yellow channel, a structure that has been respected for decades.
In fact, the lower bound of this channel has only been touched less than once per decade. And here we are again…
When price recently dipped into this “Ideal Buy Zone,” it wasn’t just touching the bottom of the yellow channel. It was also colliding with a red historical support level and the last significant VRVP volume area .
That’s triple confluence , and as traders, we live for these rare alignments.
I personally had the privilege (and yes, a bit of luck) to buy at $45.8 , on what turned out to be NVO’s worst single day in years. Seeing the double support, I didn’t hesitate. And judging by the market reaction, I wasn’t alone, many others seemed to spot the same opportunity.
The Easy Part Is Over, Now Comes the Hardest Decision in Trading
I might look like a genius for catching the bottom , but let’s be honest: buying was the easy part . The true challenge now?
Deciding when to sell.
Here are the main paths forward in my head:
1. The Short-Term Quick Win
The stock rallied about 10% in just two days.
Annualized, that return is insane. Selling would lock in a solid, risk-free gain and free up capital for the next opportunity. The downside? You might watch it keep climbing without you, and you know, that's SO HARD.
✅ Guarantees an amazing annualized return (about millions %!).
❌ You lose a once in a life-time potential upside with LOW risk.
2. The Split Strategy
Sell half the position for a clean 10% profit , and let the other half ride. Set a tight stop-loss at $43.5 to protect the remaining capital.
✅ Guarantees a win on the trade while you keep upside exposure.
❌ Halves your potential upside.
3. The Long-Term Hold
Hold the full position and see where it goes, perhaps for years.
✅ Maximum potential absolute gain if the channel continues to hold and trend upwards.
❌ Keeps capital locked and will test your nerves through constant ups and downs.
And here’s the truth: whether I sell too early or too late, I will regret it one way or another. Nobody times the absolute top.
The Risk of Doing Nothing
There’s another factor that can’t be ignored: event risk. Without a stop-loss, a bad headline could turn a +10% gain into -10%, -20%, or worse. In trading, protecting capital is priority number one.
So, What’s the Play?
If similar opportunities exist elsewhere, ones with comparable risk/reward profiles, short-term exits can make a lot of sense . By rotating capital through multiple high-probability setups in a year, the annualized return potential is astonishing.
Other Short-term ideas shared recently:
I’ll share 3 examples of how I apply this rotation strategy to consistently generate strong annualized returns. For now, I’ll just say: rare touches of a decades-long channel are gifts… but the exit and the long term strategy is where traders are truly tested.
3,5% in 1 day in Sartorius
3% in 10 days in TJX
2,5% in 9 days
But sometimes trades do not work as expected and then SL is crucial to avoid large loses, like EURUSD t hat yielded a-0,5% in few days:
So, what do you think I'm doing with my "once in a life time" NYSE:NVO position?
💬 Does this setup align with your view on NYSE:NVO ?
🚀 Hit the rocket if this helped you spot the opportunity and follow for more easy, educational trade ideas!
NVO Down 65% From Highs - Falling Knife or Value Play? Current Setup
Price: $56.98
Position: Long since $48
Bullish Case
Recent Bounce: NVO rebounded strongly from support near $45, reclaiming multiple EMA bands and pushing above key levels ($54–$55).
RSI Momentum: RSI is trending upward from oversold territory, currently around 45.75—bullish momentum building but not overbought yet.
Upside Targets: If the move holds, next resistance zones are $60.10, $60.50, and $61.83. Past those levels, open air toward $69.38 and $84.83 above.
Bearish Case
Downtrend Structure: Price still below major swing resistance ($69.38, $84.83, $96.60). Recent rallies could face rejection at EMA clusters.
Trendline Threat: Failure to hold above $55–$60 could signal a retest of lower support ($45.05). Watch for bearish reversal candles.
PMO: Top panel momentum indicators show recent green signals but remain in a zone where reversals have happened before—risk of overhead selling pressure.
Bias Today: Slightly Bullish
Why: Price action is turning up, reclaiming key levels after deep oversold conditions. Bears may defend resistance, but the risk-reward favors bulls unless $55 fails.
Watch: $60.10–$61.83 are breakout levels. Above there, momentum can accelerate. Below $54, caution is warranted.
NVO Bulls Load $60 Calls for 100%+ Weekly Gains!
# 🚀 NVO Weekly Options Trade Setup (08/24/2025)
**Consensus:** 🔥 Strong Bullish — All 5 AI models favor weekly calls!
**Market Context:** Low VIX (\~14.2) ✅, Heavy Call Flow (C/P 3.43) 📈, Institutional Volume ↑ 1.3x
---
lish on weekly horizon
* **Strategy:** Single‑leg weekly CALLs
* **Expiry:** 2025‑08‑29 (exit by Thursday to avoid 1 DTE gamma/theta risk)
* **Stop/Target:** Tight stops 40–50%, profit 50–100%
* **Strike Recommendation:** \$60 CALL ✅
* Massive liquidity (Volume: 5,019; OI: 6,348)
* Cheap entry, high leverage, low slippage
* Aligns with Grok/xAI & liquidity preference
---
## ⚡ Trade Details (Ready to Execute)
```json
{
"instrument": "NVO",
"direction": "call",
"strike": 60.0,
"expiry": "2025-08-29",
"confidence": 0.78,
"profit_target": 0.68,
"stop_loss": 0.17,
"size": 1,
"entry_price": 0.34,
"entry_timing": "open",
"signal_publish_time": "2025-08-24 07:58:54 UTC-04:00"
}
```
---
## 📌 Quick-Trade Snapshot
🎯 **Instrument:** NVO
🔀 **Direction:** CALL (LONG)
💵 **Entry Price:** \$0.34
🎯 **Profit Target:** \$0.68 (+100%)
🛑 **Stop Loss:** \$0.17 (-50%)
📅 **Expiry:** 2025-08-29
📏 **Size:** 1 contract
📈 **Confidence:** 78%
⏰ **Entry:** Market Open Monday
🕒 **Signal Time:** 08/24/2025 07:59 EDT
---
## ⚠️ Risks & Notes
* **Theta decay:** Exit by Thursday to avoid gamma/theta crush
* **Binary events:** Check stock news/earnings
* **Low premium = high loss probability:** Risk only what you can afford
* **Stop execution:** Prefer mental + limit sell vs. automated stops
NVO Bullish Swing Incoming! Call Strike $55 🚀 NVO Swing Alert – 2025-08-15 🚀
**Sentiment:** Moderate Bullish
**Setup:** Call Option Trade
---
## 📈 Market Snapshot
* **Daily RSI:** 44.7 → Neutral but trending upward
* **5 & 10-Day Trend:** +2.94% / +9.11% → Short-term bullish momentum
* **Volume:** Avg (1.0x) → Weak breakout confirmation
* **Call/Put Ratio:** 1.00 → Neutral market expectancy
* **VIX:** 14.8 → Low volatility, favorable for directional trades
---
## ⚖️ Consensus & Conflicts
**Agreement:**
* Short-term positive performance suggests bullish potential
* Low VIX environment favorable for swing trading
**Disagreement:**
* Mixed interpretation of Call/Put ratio
* Some models caution due to weak volume and insufficient institutional support
---
## 🎯 Trade Setup – NVO CALL
**Entry Condition:** At market open
**Strike:** \$55.00
**Expiration:** 2025-08-29
**Entry Price:** \$0.91
**Confidence:** 72%
**Profit Targets:**
* Scale 50% at \$1.36 (50% gain)
* Hold remainder until \$1.82 (100% potential gain)
**Stop Loss:** \$0.54 (40% of premium)
**Key Risks:**
* Weak volume may limit momentum
* Breach of \$50 support invalidates bullish setup
---
## 📝 TRADE DETAILS (JSON)
```json
{
"instrument": "NVO",
"direction": "call",
"strike": 55.0,
"expiry": "2025-08-29",
"confidence": 0.72,
"profit_target": 1.36,
"stop_loss": 0.54,
"size": 1,
"entry_price": 0.91,
"entry_timing": "open",
"signal_publish_time": "2025-08-15 13:54:27 UTC-04:00"
}
```
---
## 📊 Quick Reference – TradingView Ready
🎯 **Instrument:** NVO
🔀 **Direction:** CALL (Long)
💵 **Entry Price:** \$0.91
📈 **Profit Target:** \$1.36 / \$1.82
🛑 **Stop Loss:** \$0.54
📅 **Expiry:** 2025-08-29
📏 **Size:** 1 contract
⏰ **Entry Timing:** Market Open
🕒 **Signal Time:** 2025-08-15 13:54 EDT
---
### Suggested Viral Title & Tags:
**🔥 NVO Swing Alert: Call Setup Ready – Strike \$55 🚀**
\#NVO #SwingTrade #OptionsTrading #Bullish #CallOption #Momentum #TradeSetup #TechnicalAnalysis #StockAlerts #Finance #TradingSignals #MarketWatch #LongTrade
60$ coming monthsGrabbed late sept 60C further out would be safer. Trading at an EV/EBIT multiple of 9.8x, NVO is at its lowest valuation in over a decade, suggesting a potential bargain for a company with strong fundamentals and steady growth. Analysts project 21.35% EPS growth next year (from $3.84 to $4.66), supporting a potential rebound. I'm also long the competition LLY and long OSCR.
$NVO Elliott Wave Count – Eyeing $113 Before Big C-Wave DropPrimary Elliott Wave Scenario – NYSE:NVO
I believe NYSE:NVO completed a multi-year Wave I in May 2024. Since then, we’ve seen the A-wave of a larger ABC correction play out.
The price dipped below the 0.618 Fib at $56.63, but reclaimed key support at $47.75. My current primary count suggests that the bottom might already be in.
The drop to $45 looks like an extended B-wave, hitting classic Fibonacci targets.
If the bottom is confirmed, I expect a B-wave rally with a likely target range of $91.77–$113.19 — possibly even higher.
This is not a short-term move; it will take time to develop.
After the B-wave completes, I anticipate a final C-wave down to $47.75–$29, which would complete the Wave II correction.
This would set up a major long-term buying opportunity for the years ahead.
Invalidation:
If price breaks below $45 again, this scenario is invalid. In that case, we likely head straight to $32 and the 0.786 Fib.
Fib resistance + RSI bullish reversal After the bearish news earlier today, it seems like Novo has had its final capitulation.
There's a fib resistance + historical resistance dating back to '21-'22.
On the weekly, the RSI is also presenting a bullish divergence - although we may want to await the closing of this week to confirm this.
Taking into account strong fundamentals, analyst consensus, it seems like this stock is a BUY!
$NOV: Lot of loss in weight loss. Is it in buy zone? Currently the weight loss drugs are having a severe loss of weightage in the corresponding indices. The poster child of weight loss and diabetes drugs XETR:NOV and NYSE:LLY are seeing some of the worst drawdown in their history. Today we look at the worst of the 2 in this space which is $NOV. Novo Nordisk had a lot of missed steps in the current year, and the stock price has lost almost 70% from its peak of 148 $ in June of 2024. It has a long and painful drawdown of almost 70% from its ATH.
The downward sloping pattern is so prominent that it is hard to ignore the drawdown in this stock. But the question comes will there me more loss and pain this weight loss pioneer or there is a visible buy zone for this stock. I did some unorthodox chart today plotting the downward slopping Fib retracement by joining the tops of the recent lower highs and on the lower bound of the lower lows. We see the clear levels provided by the Fib levels. Currently the stock is at 0.786 level with price at 49 $. I think once the key psychological level of 50 $ is broken the stock can go below the 0.786 level and may touch the 1.0 Fib level which is @ around 40 $. And with 0.618 being the upper limit with price 52 $. This range was also in play during 2021 and 2022 when the stock did a year long consolidation before moving higher.
Verdict: XETR:NOV is within the accumulating zone with 52 $ as top and 40 $ as the bottom. 70 % drawdown from the top is a tempting discount on the price and a good entry point for long term.
NovoNordisk, possible rotation,safe green buy Zone after confirmNovo Nordisk got slammed after Patrick appeared in the Technical analysis and slammed the Price all the way down to goblintown. After some profit cuts and FUD in the market a possibly rotation is possible. The GLP-1 market is misunderstood. if a rotation is confirmed and some more facts will be shared after lilly earnings today a possible rotation and green buy zone will be confirmed. after new facts and confirmation a High risk/reward oppertunity is possible.
Let's all hope patrick will appear back again (maybe after lilly earnings) in the charts and will take everyting upside down.
Good luck.
NovoNordisk, LT dirt cheap | GLP-1 a misunderstood growth marketNovo Nordisk stock has lost quite some weight since the release of Eli lilly's drug Zepbound and Mounjaro and since the rise of compounded, or generic copycat GLP-1 alternatives. The growth of the company has slown down a bit, but the overall GLP-1 market growth is still impressive and misunderstood. Both Lilly and NVO have become some of the cheapest PEG stocks in the markets and compettitors, of which most known, Hims en hers health also took a slice of growth of this market by telehealth GLP-1 descriptions.
The copycat descriptions could be dangerous due to unvalidated low quality GLP-1 or agonist GLP-1 substances. Therefore a lot of law suits have been initiated by NVO.
Where Oral Wegovy still has to be FDA approved withinin ~4, 7 months in USA, the company also has new medication approvals awaiting in the pipeline, medications like Cagrisema. (Phase 3 clinical trials, approval in late 2025 or early 2026)
Amycretin - a unimolecular long-acting GLP-1 and amylin receptor agonist.
Where investors have already praised Lilly for the better drug, GLP-1 demand is surging harder than production for both companies.
Where Wegovy and Ozempic are approved by The FDA to sell, many costs for the patients themselfs aren't covered by the health insurance yet. Wegovy or Zepbound isn't covered for mainstream when prescribed by your physician yet. it's only covered for severe obisty for example. Therefore penetration rates of the drug aren't very high yet and will get higher where it will be coverd for more people. Also due to the high cost many copycat GLP-1 agonist market have arisen.
There is some improvement in cost coverage for these types of medicine Which will boost the revenue due to prescribtion sales.
Next these facts, there are still new markets for GLP-1 to be approved like in india and Japan where worldwide demand is much greather than production capacity. Both Lilly and NVO are expanding fast. Many new production volume is created and Needed!, NVO is expanding production sites in brazil and china.
I'm exited for the earnings today. NVO has had many dumps before but has proven to be a up only company. The profits of the company have doubled from $7B to >$14B since Wegovy FDA approval. from the top shares have dumped 70% where there is still >10% growth. Since the FDA approval (june 2021), other markets excluded the share is just +40% up. The stock is much cheaper now with double the profits and revenue, and still >10% growth.
Let's see what happens with earnings. Good luck.
NVO Weekly Chart AnalysisNovo Nordisk (NVO) recently saw a sharp drop with heavy volume, signaling strong selling pressure. The chart shows a potential recovery path if the stock holds support near $47.
🔄 Possible rebound levels:
First target: $58
Mid target: $71
Final target: $82
📊 Options flow shows strong call activity (bullish bets), with a low put/call ratio, suggesting some traders expect a bounce. However, momentum is still weak, and if $47 fails, further downside toward $36 or lower is possible.
If you want to buy NOVO.....A follower asked for my opinion on this stock which he said many are shorting this and asks if he should be a contrarian instead.
I do not own this stock and has no intention to at this moment but just looking at the chart, here's my 2cents :
1) price has fallen by 70+% from the peak from June 2024 (more than 12 months of bearish moves)
2) price is still in the downward channel and no reversal pattern is in sight
3) How will Donald Trump's tariffs hit these pharma companies down the road remain a mystery. Prefer to let the dust settles first, ie. you may not catch at the lowest price but at least if the trend is up , you have participated in it.
4) Time Horizon - are you investing for long term ? If yes, then further fall in prices may be a good opportunity to average down.
5) Economic Moat - how intense is the competition in the obesity drugs market ? How are the other competitors doing ? Is Novo market shares being encroached ? if yes, what are its strategies to counter that ?
Reading some of the analysts' comments on this stock, it seems like short term prices may not recover as fast as many disappointed investors wanted. Further selling pressure may persists, creating more fear in the market. It may takes several years for the prices to recover to its glorious days so patience is really needed if you want to invest in it.
6) Substitutes - Are there better healthcare companies that you can choose to invest in compared to NOVO ? Consider your investing objectives, capital allocation, timeline, risk/reward, etc
No rush.....
Novo Nordisk (Revised) | NVO | Long at $47.78**This is a revised analysis from February 5, 2025: I am still in that position, but added significantly more below $50**
Novo Nordisk NYSE:NVO is now trading at valuations before its release of Wegovy and Ozempic... From a technical analysis perspective, it's within my "major crash" simple moving average zone (gray lines). When a company's stock price enters this region (especially large and healthy companies) I always grab shares - either for a temporary future bounce or a long-term hold. While currently trading near $47 a share, I think worst case scenario here in 2025 is near $38-$39. Tariffs may cause a recession in the second half of 2025, so no company would be immune.
As mentioned above, I am still a holder at $86.74. However, I went in much heavier within my "major crash" simple moving average band and have a final entry planned near $38-$38 (if it drops there). My current cost average is near $55.00.
Why do I still have faith in NYSE:NVO ? Because no one else does right now, yet it generated $42 billion in revenue, $14 billion in profits, and has significant cash flow YoY. The company has a massive pipeline, despite Wegovy and Ozempic competition, and I think the market is undervaluing its position in the pharmaceutical industry.
Revised Targets in 2028:
$60.00 (+25.6%)
$70.00 (+46.5%)
$80.00 (+67.4%)
Novo Nordisk, generational buying opportunity? Novo Nordisk is currently experiencing one of the largest drawdowns in its history, primarily triggered by a downward revision of guidance for FY25 and FY26.
Focusing strictly on technical analysis:
For the first time, the monthly 200 EMA is serving as a key support level for Novo Nordisk - an area the stock has never approached in its previous history.
The long-term trendline, originating in 1989 and successfully tested three times since 1995, remains intact and is being approached once again.
Both support levels - the monthly 200 EMA and the long-term trendline from 1989 - are now converging in the same price area.
In addition, the latest twelve months (LTM) P/E has compressed to 13.8x, representing its lowest multiple in over two decades.
In the context of a highly valued broader market, Novo Nordisk is now trading at what can be considered a fair level from a purely technical perspective.
$NOVO_B updated channelNovo Nordisk has had a tough time over the past 13 months, with its stock falling significantly. The main reason is growing investor concern that the explosive growth in sales of Wegovy and Ozempic may be slowing down, especially as competition heats up — particularly from Eli Lilly. Just a few days ago, Novo cut its full-year growth forecast, which confirmed some of those market worries.
At the same time, they announced a leadership change. Current CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen is stepping down, and from August 7, Mike Doustdar will take over. He’s been with Novo since 1992 and has led the company’s international operations with great success. He’s also completed executive education at Harvard, and he’s widely seen as a strong, action-oriented leader with global experience.
Looking at the chart the price has almost always swayed up and down within this tunnel. Occationally falling to the trendline bellow.
Now we are at the trendline below - Meaning we are at an absolute panic state. One og the biggest pharma companies in the world - who in a matter of 5 years will bring a weight loss pill to this world - is ready for a new start.
Still somewhat of a falling knife - so be careful. But keep an eye out for a speedy return upwards.
NYSE:LLY on the other hand has a bit of the same trend BUT… price has hit the top of the channel…