VIE - +16% upside with 1:4 RR
Excellent RR ratio
Good Theme with EU stocks moving well
Utilities
And great pattern formation and basing period.
VVD trade ideas
27 September 2023 - VIE Stock ExitI cut VIE from my portfolio today as I believe the buyers are losing power.
long position on VIEMy strtegy is based on price action with the reading of certain indicators that I like whilerespecting all the values that define the stock maket
Veolia Envt France SSI Live Trading Series
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Veolia to return to ATHVeolia has completed it's takeover of SUEZ now to become one of the largest companies of it's type in the world, results for 2021 have just been released so this post is really to focus on the recent drop in price and and the results that have followed after that.
Veolia recently had an ATH of around 33 euro, before it's earnings the war in Ukraine started and obviously investors got spooked and there was a sell off.
Veolia has hedged very well against fuel prices so there is no impact for that side of the business at the moment, also because they are a net supplier of energy their income has actually gone up. Coupled with that is the rise in prices for recycled material and cost savings that have been completed ahead of schedule. All of this has given a very rosy picture to the earnings.
2020 2021
Revenue 26Bn 28.5Bn
Debt 13.2Bn 9.5Bn
Dividend .70 1.00
Net income 381m 985m
Efficiencys +382m
Hard to see how the figures could have gone any better really, expected another 500m in cost savings this year due to synergies between SUEZ and Veolia, plus the revenue already generated by SUEZ and next years results should see Veolia go over a billion in net income with relative ease.
I see these results as great indicators for 2022 and the statements from Antoine Frerot are very bullish for the year ahead and the completion of 'Impact 2023'.
I see a return to 33 euro in the next couple of months and a push on to the mid to high 30s by EOY. Of course the war in Ukraine has an influence on every price action at the moment but in a strange way this may not do Veolia any harm as they are in the business of trying to provide independent energy to cities through their waste and energy segments.
Happy trading everyone and remember I am not a financial adviser so do your own DD.
Veolia volatility where there should be none!So, what should be quite a boring steady company has become embroiled in a bitter battle with a rival company.
Veolia (12.5B market cap) are trying to buy Suez (10.4B), one of their main competitors.
This started by Veolia talking to Suez but from the get go Suez were not interested.
Let's consider this, Suez Canal opened in 1869, Suez the company has it's origins from that. You can imagine a french company with that much history is not really going to roll over and give up their name too easy.
There is a lot of overlapping areas between the two companies, you can see how the word synergy would be applied perfectly in this situation.
Veolia has bought just under 30% of Suex from Engie which was in turn owned in part by the French government (that also caused controversy), sale is now complete and Veolia have attempted to parlay with Suez with no great success.
At the moment Suez is trying to put together a better offer to the board and shareholders but it seems unlikely that they will be able to do that.
So where will the share price go?
After the offer there was a brief rise but generally the shares of the purchasing company drop in a situation like that and the shares of the company being purchased rise, this is usually a short term situation as was the case here, Veolia was fantastic value when it hit the low here of 16 with a quick recovery always assured. Full disclosure my BEP is around 14.
So more than likely Veolia will prevail, they are one fo the biggest players in water treatment and waste in Europe/World and this would cement that position on the world stage. Initially there may be another dip in the next year but despite the difficulties that are coming down the road and the amount of debt Veolia will have to take on to purchase Suez it's hard to see anything but positive over the longer 3 - 5 year term.
Veolia are quite an innovative company, they have green credentials that are genuine and will be a force in the future.
My initial target would be 25 euro/20% increase short term, in 3 to 5 years when the dust has settled and cost savings/synergy has borne fruit I think you are easliy looking at 100%
Today Veolia issued a negative interest 6-year bond for 700m which was over-subscribed, this gives some indication of the investor interest and profile of Veolia
Veolia to break out of channelVeolia meeting resistance at 21.0 , has pushed against this price for several days and is now ready to break through and go above 23,
just my opinion
Long term investments - 2019: VEOLIA - VIELong term investments - 2019:
This is a series of posts on long term investment for 2019.
Every serious investor establishes a solid money management with a balanced risk factor.
Investing 100% of your savings in forex or crypto currency is like make a blind all in at poker.
So a key factor is to choose which asset allocation suites better for you and to found low risk investments on long term.
This investment and assets suits my needs.
Today choice is Veolia (VIE) group but could be other assets in Water Utilities. This is why:
1- The World Economic Forum ( WEF ) identified as major risky trend the "Changing climate" and "Degrading Enviroment".
As a consequence, climate in south Europe (mediterranean area) is getting more and more dry. In this situation, water is a key factor and Veolia controls, directly or through stocks, many companies providing water utilities.
In easy words: people cannot live without water and water is getting expensive year after year.
2- Technically speaking, the actual price is between a resistance and a support area identified in the chart. Once the price will break the area, stock could rise up to 21.890: wait!
3- Looking at seasonality charts (2015-2019), best moment to buy are January and July.
4- &r=2200&pnf=y]Point & figures identifie a rising support.
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Veolia / Monthly / Elliott waveBreakout above wave 1 will confirm wave 3, breakdown under trendline or under wave 2 will invalided trading scenario.
