Gold Futures (GC) – “Top Is In” Schematic ReviewExecutive Snapshot 🧭
Primary stance: Bearish swing/top-in thesis (Wyckoff Distribution complete via UTAD).
Bias strength: High, while price remains below 3,825–3,860 and fails to accept above.
Game plan: Fade strength into supply; look for Phase D → E breakdown confirmation → target 3,534/3,509 → 3,209 → 3,123 then extended 2,970–2,795 if momentum accelerates.
Multi-Framework Confluence:
A) Wyckoff (your schematic) ♟️
Phases:
A/B: BC/ST established range highs; AR/SOW tagged mid/low of range.
C: UT → UTAD (new high on diminishing relative spread & mixed volume).
D (now): Throwback rallies holding beneath UTAD; look for LPSY near 3,760–3,825; failure → Phase E markdown.
Validation: Lower highs after the UTAD and repeated rejections of the supply shelf 3,760–3,825.
Confirmation trigger: Break and accept below ICE/Creek = 3,534–3,509 (your pink band) → distribution confirmed.
Macro Frame 🌐
Gold’s cyclical up-leg is extended; near-term macro supports a pause/reversion:
Real yields/beta & USD shocks can catalyze a value-seeking dip.
COMEX time-and-price run suggests heat above without equivalent build in value → mean-revert first, trend later.
Invalidation & Risk:
Hard invalidation (swing): Weekly close > 3,860 and acceptance above for 2–3 sessions (no swift rejection).
Soft invalidation (tactical): Daily close back inside 3,760–3,825 after a breakdown → step aside, wait for next LPSY.
Position/Risk Template:
Initial risk: above 3,825 (or 3,860 for wider swing).
Size: start ½–⅔ unit at first tag/reject; complete size on breakdown retest of 3,534–3,509.
Trailing: swing stop > last LPSY high once 3,534 is lost.
Momentum & Internals (Quick Read) ⚙️
RSI/ultimate RSI (your panels): persistent bearish divergence into UTAD zone.
MACD: high, curling; ripe for signal cross on daily if price slips under 3,600s → 3,534.
Squeeze/Momentum: elevated; release down would align with the distribution thesis.
Execution Checklist ✅
Pre-break:
Fade 3,760–3,825 on rejection candles/footprint absorption.
Track delta & volume—no expansion = stronger distribution read.
Break event:
Daily close < 3,534 → reduce discretion, execute plan; seek retest → LPSY to add.
Manage:
Cover +30–50 handles into 3,209–3,180; roll runner.
Data to watch: USD DXY spikes, GLD OI/put skew, dealer GEX flips around GLD 300.
One-Page Risk Map 🗺️
Bearish while: < 3,825–3,860.
Confirmation: < 3,534–3,509 (close/accept).
Targets: 3,209 → 3,123 → 2,970 → 2,795 → 2,541.
Stop/Invalid: > 3,860 w/ acceptance.
Marked UTAD and supply stack 3,760–3,825 present a clean risk-defined top. Until the market accepts above 3,860, the probabilistic path favors Phase E markdown back toward 3,2xx value and possibly the 2,9xx–2,795 extension if momentum breaks loose.
