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Taifex NT Dollar Gold Futures

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TGF1! trade ideas

Gold Futures – 1H Demand Zone Retest | Bullish Setup📊 Trade Breakdown: Pair: Gold Futures (MGC1!) Timeframe: 1 Hour Bias: Bullish Type: Demand Zone Retest Entry: Waiting for bullish engulfing confirmation Stop Loss: Below 3770 demand zone Take Profit: • TP1: 3785 • TP2: 3813 Risk-to-Reward: ~1:2–1:3 depending on entry, but the overall target is 1:1! ⸻ 📌 Key Confluences: • Price broke previous structure high, confirming momentum shift • Fresh 1H demand zone left behind after breakout • Waiting for retest + signs of rejection before executing • Bullish engulfing candle will be my trigger • Trend bias still showing strength intraday ⸻ ⚙️ Trade Setup: Plan is to let price come back into demand, reject cleanly and print a bullish engulfing candle. That’s when I’ll look to execute long. Stop will be tucked below the zone around 3770 to keep risk defined. First target set at 3785 (recent structure) with extended target at 3813 (previous high/supply zone). If the zone fails or no bullish confirmation shows, the setup is invalid and I stay flat. ⸻ 🧠 Mindset: Patience is everything. I’d rather wait for price to come back to me than force a trade. No FOMO. Clean invalidation, clean R:R. Confidence comes from the structure break and demand zone. Trusting the process and letting the trade play out on my terms. “Trade Simple, Live Lavish”
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by QuilLavish
Gold Rally May Soon Collapse Into a BustGold has reached its most overbought level on a monthly basis in 45 years. Not only that, but it is also overbought on a daily and weekly basis, a feat that is not only rare but troubling. The RSI on gold is now well above 70 on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. It is not merely that gold’s RSI is above 70 – it has reached a staggering 89.6 on the monthly chart, a level not seen since January 1980, when it peaked at 91.2 and closed that month at $681.50. It then took more than 27 years for gold to register a new monthly closing high in September 2007. Currently, the weekly chart exhibits similarly overbought conditions, with an RSI reading of 76, while trading above its upper Bollinger band for what appears to be four consecutive weeks. In addition, the %b – which measures how far above the upper Bollinger band the price of gold is – stands at 1.12, indicating that it is historically quite stretched. The daily chart suggests there may be a little further for gold to rally, but not much, with $3,820 marking the upper end of the trading range. With the RSI currently at 78, sustaining such a rally will be challenging. While there is precedent for gold to rally further from similarly overbought levels, as seen in the early and mid-1970s, today’s inflation picture is not quite the same. Historically, gold has tended to follow boom-and-bust cycles on a recurring basis over the past 50 years, and there is a good chance that this current move higher will end in a similar fashion. Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management. Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.
CMCMARKETS:GOLDZ2025
by cmcmarkets
I Should Have Noticed This Pattern (Episode 1) Just today I zoomed out on my GS chart and noticed for the first time this almost perfect triangle pattern. How did I completely miss this? -There are many times in my short trading career that I have come across things I should have noticed. Whether it's chart patterns, correlation, volume spikes, or indicators indicating; I kick myself for my neglect! -Now the least I can do is point out those mistakes and share them with you as I see them, in the hopes that more get noticed in the future. -This is an example of a symmetrical triangle which is considered the most common type of triangle pattern. Despite the name, the triangle does not have to be symmetrical and like all patterns is evaluated in the approximate. Some imagination is required. Most triangles are a representation of consolidation before continuation, but can sometimes represent a top or bottom before reversal. When price does break out of a triangle, volume should spike and this example clearly shows that. This example also shows a false breakout which would have been discovered when closing for the day back "inside" the pattern. Also like all patterns, the larger the time interval, the more important the pattern. Daily and longer are preferred. -Again this is what I see after the fact and far too late. I would not enter this trade now. Please let me know if I missed something or if you were able to trade this in real time and there was details that I left out. Also, did anyone make money on noticing this pattern? Am I mistaken in any way?
COMEX:GCZ2025Education
by NoMorePaperTrading
Tracking Stagflation with this Ratio - Crude, Copper, Gold RatioHow to Spot Stagflation? One way is by looking at the copper-to-gold ratio and the crude oil-to-gold ratio. • Gold reflects real money and investor confidence. • Copper tracks recession. • Crude oil represents inflation pressures. When real money is under threat, the economy slows, and inflation rises at the same time, we have stagflation. This is the worst-case scenario for any economy. Fortunately, we are not experiencing it yet, though the risk remains. What could trigger it? Copper Oil Futures & Options Ticker: HG Minimum fluctuation: 0.0005 per pound = $12.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by konhow
2
Gold Futures — New Week Opens Strong After Friday RallyGold closed last week bullish after sweeping liquidity below the weekly low and snapping higher into resistance. As we open into Asian session Monday, price is testing the daily high (3719). Key Scenarios This Week: Bullish: If buyers hold above 3719, continuation toward 3743 (weekly fair value gap high) and potentially 3767 (ATH marker) could play out. Bearish: A failure to hold above 3719 opens the door for retracement back toward 3700 → 3685 zone (last week’s supply area). Opening conditions look bullish, but patience is key. Waiting to see if Asia sets the tone for continuation or if NY later in the week pulls it back.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by DWoodz
2
MGCZ2025 WEEK 39 SEPT 21STLooking for MON, TUE, WED to be the low of the week, trading into or slightly below 3H BISI. Price should run energetically to break $3744. Look for buying opportunities once price has broken below $3715. Note that price can run lower into the BOB (Bullish OB) before turning around. IF- price closes below the 3H OB at $3706. Hold to see if price turn in the lower 3H SIBI instead. You could be wrong in your analysis and price may be trying to run lower. NOTE we are entering MC-NM. This is typically a retracement which should be to the up side given market structure. NOTE: you are looking to hold for a 20 point run based on the fib. The best BUYs will be formed below $3723 CALENDAR EVENT MON - 12PM - FOMC SPEAKER TUES - 9:45AM - PMI (HIGH) - 12:35AM - POWELL SPEAKS (HIGH) WED - 10AM - NEW HOMES SALES THUR - 8:30AM - FINAL GDP (HIGH) - 10AM - EXISTING HOME SALES FRIDAY - 8:30AM - CORE PCE INDEX (HIGH) Final Note - remember to keep track of midnight/8:30 opening prices. Always refer back to the 1H and 3H to confirm what side of the market you should be on. - Alway look to buy in a discount range and sell in a premium range. Risk- Only risk 150- 200 per trade on initial entry. you can add lots once you confirm trade is good. Refer back to higher TF before adding lots. Max two trades per session.
COMEX_MINI:MGCZ2025Long
by LUNAR_TRADER_
Gold: Major New Option Portfolios Signal Strong Moves AheadFriday’s CME report showed a surge in large option blocks in gold — two of them stand out. 🔹 1. "Long Condor" on December Futures (GCZ24) This is the most significant structure added: Targets a move below $3,620 or above $3,780 In other words: a breakout is expected, not consolidation 📌 Key point: A "Long Condor" profits from volatility, not direction. It wins if price moves sharply — up OR down — but loses if it stays flat. 💡 My note: When I first encountered delta-neutral strategies like this as a Forex trader — my brain exploded. No directional bias… yet clearly positioned for action? That was the moment I realized: options are a different game. 🔹 2. Bull Call Spread (Oct Series): $3800–$3850 Another key play: A classic bullish call spread at 3800/3850 Target: upside beyond current levels But here’s the difference: Unlike the "Long Condor", this one needs a clear upward move — and soon. Within a few days. This isn’t about volatility. It’s a directional bet that gold will rise. 🧠 Bottom Line: One portfolio says: "Breakout coming — no matter which way." Another says: "Gold goes up — and soon." Are they aligned? Contradictory? Or could both win? Trade smarter, not harder! Looking to boost your profits with valuable market insights and data-driven entry points? Join us or keep moving!
COMEX:GC1!Long
by ClashChartsTeam
GC - GOLD 9/19Monthly timeframe Pink Weekly = Grey Daily = Red 4hr = Orange 1hr = Yellow 15min = Blue 5min = Green 4 candles, 6 Levels, & MarketMeta A Range = 2 or more candles in the same direction, either Accumulation ranges, Distribution ranges or Single candles which are ranges on lower timeframes. the 4 candles are: 2 from the Distribution Range - BackSide (BS) which is the first distribution candle in the range. It has an expectation to have a strong influence on price when price is above it. If price is below the BS level, price enters the distribution range and the BackSide level acts as resistance to keep price down in a distribution trend. The FrontSide candle (FS) is the last distribution candle is the range. the bottom side wick is the swingLow level and distribution range boundary. A FrontSide candle has an expectation to create an accumulation trend and keep price above the swingLow. The other 2 candles are in the accumulation range and the exact opposite of the BS & FS level so they are labeled Inverse BackSide (Inv.BS) & Inverse FrontSide (Inv.FS)
COMEX:GC1!
by StudyGuideTA
Gold Futures — Bearish Momentum Building After Fed CutGold continues to show weakness after the Fed’s 25bps rate cut. Price rejected the 1H FVG overhead and is pressing down toward yesterday’s low (3660). Key Scenarios: Bearish Case (favored): If we break and close below yesterday’s low (D-L 3660), sellers likely push toward the weekly low (WL ~3627). That move would clean up the liquidity pool and fill the H-TF imbalance. Bullish Case: Only if buyers defend the daily low and reclaim the 1H FVG with strength could we see price revisit 3710 (daily high). Momentum remains on the downside, with ADX > 25 confirming trend conditions. Watching closely for the daily low sweep and possible continuation.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by DWoodz
Gold setup indicates a fall ahead – Stay alert, traders!This is the 15-minute chart of GOLD1! Gold is moving in a well-defined parallel channel and currently respecting the LOP resistance zone at 109750–109850. The channel’s lower boundary near 108650 may act as short-term support. If Gold breaks down below this support, the projected downside target is near 107750. In case of range-bound movement, the ideal sell zone remains at the LOP (109750–109850). If this resistance level sustains, Gold may fall and test the lower targets. Additionally, a Head & Shoulders pattern has formed within the channel, with its downside target aligning with the channel projection. Thank you.
MCX:GOLD1!Short
by FiveCircles
Anticipation of GC / Gold over the next couple of weeks.For those who might have interest in a Elliott reading on gold: In this post, everytime I write gold, I mean GC. This is just for info, since GC and gold doesn't have same prices, but the movement is very much the same. If you follow along on a gold spot or similar, just translate the levels to there. The picture is very messy for those who doesn't know what the lines and numbers are for, but please follow along. I have a strong believe that with current PA the 3rd (white iii) wave is over, and now we will look for price to search for the bottom of the blue channel. The blue channel is an acceleration channel, which is used to see if 4th (white iv) wave is under way. When the 4th (white iv) has developed some more, we are able to put another channel on, called the deceleration channel. This we will use to spot the end of the 4th (white iv). Until now, it seems gold is respect the white 161 fib level, which is a very typical 3rd wave level to end. The reason I started this post, was to tell you about my thoughts on when the 4th (white iv) is going to end, or at least how long it's going to be. A typical scenario is that wave 4 is longer in duration than wave 2. For ease of spotting, I have put up these purple boxes, so now we do not anticipate gold to end the correction, before it has exited the purple box to the right. The depth of wave 4 (white iv): I believe we are going to see prices in the level between 3600 and 3550 (the green box). Reasons for the levels of the green box: when prices wave 2 (white ii) goes beyound the 61.8 fib level (in this case below), we tend to see a retracement between 38% and 50% in the 4th (white iv). And this is the area the green box indicates. Timewise it is places outside of the previously mentioned purple box. 4th wave also tends to respect the base channel . Either the upper line or the middle line. The lower line of the blue channel and the middle of the grey channel ( base channel ), the green box, outside of the purple box is all seeming to fall in the same place. So I like all the confluences falling together here, so that's why I feel pretty certain that, that is where the white iv wave is likely to end. Timewise it'll be about 1st of october. The white v wave i have also done a forecast on that fits if wave white iv retrace to the green box. Normally the 5th wave is going to end in the area between 38% and 61% of the wave 1 and 3. This level is indicated with the blue fib. Usually wave 5 is equal to wave 3. But can be extended if wave three isn't. Have indicated the 100% fib of white i wave with the cyan fib. This 100% level falls between the blue fib, right around the yellow line I have talked a lot about before in previous post. So I also have a lot of confluences for price to go here in the white v wave. If the white v is extended it could go to the blue 100% level, which also is confluenced with that cyan upgoing line. This is a pitchfork drawn from previous waves. let's see where gold will take us.
COMEX:GC1!
by TheDane
Gold — Fed Cut Fade: Overextended, Eyeing a ThrowbackGold — Fed Cut Fade: Overextended, Eyeing a Throwback 🎯 Gold ripped higher into the FOMC, but the 25 bp cut was fully priced in. Post-decision, we saw the classic whipsaw — down → up → slow fade into the close. With the dollar and real yields catching a bid, the metal looks due for digestion before the next leg. Technicals (4h) Overextended run: Vertical leg higher with no real basing. Supply zone: Sellers showed up around 3.71–3.75k. Volume magnet: Confluence of the broken trendline + HVN sits down at ~3.41k. Thin profile: Gap between 3.52 → 3.41k leaves room for a fast move lower if momentum flips. Trade Idea Short bias: Fading the 3.71–3.74k zone or on breakdown acceptance below 3.69k. Stop: Above 3.76k (invalidation). Target: 3.41k (major HVN + retest zone). Macro Context The Fed’s move matches expectations. With positioning stretched and “buy the rumor / sell the news” in play, near-term risk is for a pullback. Medium term, the trend stays bullish if easing continues and real yields drift lower. Not financial advice — just sharing the setup I’m watching. #Gold #GC1 #Futures #ShortSetup #VolumeProfile #FOMC
COMEX:GC1!Short
by JoshuaDanford
Fed Cuts Rates — Gold Reacts, Watching for Follow-Through or ReThe Fed has just delivered a 25 bps rate cut, and there’s a mixed tone in the after-move: inflation still high, jobs softening, and the dot-plot shows more cuts are expected — but with divided opinions. On the chart, Gold spilled out of consolidation post-Fed, touched key support, and is now pressing back toward a 4H FVG (supply zone). Scenarios: Upside: If price pushes up toward the 4H FVG, gets rejected cleanly → potential short entry. Downside: If that rejection holds, or support breaks, expect slide toward high timeframe FVG region in 3600s. Trade with eyes open — volatility likely stays high. Support & resistance zones are critical here.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by DWoodz