Get started
DJIA FUTURES (Mar 2025)DJIA FUTURES (Mar 2025)DJIA FUTURES (Mar 2025)

DJIA FUTURES (Mar 2025)

No trades
OverviewNewsIdeasMindsForward curveSeasonalsContracts

Trade ideas

YM1! DOW JONES E-MINI FUTURES - THE POST-FED BLUEPRINTDecember 10, 2025 | by officialjackofalltrades 🟢 BULLISH | Fed's "Hawkish Cut" Creates Opportunity EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - THE FED DECISION IS IN Current Price: $47,913 | Date: December 10, 2025 - POST-FOMC The Dow Jones E-mini futures just experienced a historic moment : The Dow gained 497.46 points, or 1.1%, to close at 48,057.75 following the Federal Reserve's decision to lower rates by a quarter percentage point, putting it in a range between 3.5%-3.75%. But here's what NOBODY is talking about: This was a "hawkish cut" with three "no" votes, which hasn't happened since September 2019. Yet the market RALLIED . Why? Because the "hawkish" part was already priced in. The Technical Setup: Pattern: Ascending channel (intact since November) Current Position: Testing mid-channel at 47,700-47,800 Resistance: 48,100-48,300 (upper channel boundary) Support: 46,800-47,00 (mid-channel), 46,500-46,100 (lower channel) Breakout Target: 48,000-48,500 The Fed Backdrop: Powell said "We are well positioned to wait and see how the economy evolves" Translation? The Fed is DONE cutting for now. But here's the twist: Fed funds futures suggest around a 68% chance the central bank will cut rates two or more times in 2026. The market doesn't believe Powell! The Trade: Long from 47,700-48,300, target 48,000+ 🔎 MARKET CONTEXT - THE FED'S "HAWKISH CUT" PARADOX What Just Happened (Last 6 Hours) At 2:00 PM ET today, the Fed delivered exactly what was expected: 25-basis-point reduction from 3.75-4% to 3.50-3.75%. But the details were hawkish: Three dissenting votes (Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack voted against, plus two others) Dot plot indicated just one more cut in 2026 and another in 2027 Seven officials indicated they want NO cuts next year Powell called it a "very challenging situation" The Market's Response? Dow jumped 497.46 points (+1.1%) to 48,057.75. Why rally on hawkish news? Answer: Because the hawkish tone was already priced in from the pre-meeting leaks and October's dissenting votes. The market expected worse . The Internal Fed War Asked about the elevated level of dissenting members, Powell emphasized that everyone on the FOMC agrees that inflation is still too high, and that there are also risks to economic growth. This Fed is more divided than any time in recent memory : Hawks (7 members): Want ZERO cuts in 2026 Centrists (5 members): Want 1-2 cuts in 2026 Doves (7 members): Want 2-3 cuts in 2026 19 participants among the governors and regional presidents, 12 of whom vote. This division means volatility , but also opportunity . TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - THE ASCENDING CHANNEL AT DECISION POINT The Pattern: Ascending Channel (Bullish Structure) Your chart shows a textbook ascending channel that's been in play since early November 2025. Channel Characteristics: Lower Support: Started at 44,000 (early Nov) → 46,500 (mid-Nov) → 47,000 Current Position: Dow closed at 48,057.75, which is mid-channel perfect positioning for next leg up. Technical Indicators: Moving Averages: 50-day MA: ~46,800 (rising, bullish) 200-day MA: ~45,200 (rising, bullish) Golden Cross: Active since mid-October = long-term bullish Volume: Dow jumped on Wednesday after Fed decision with significant volume, this confirms the breakout is real , not a fake pump. RSI: Current: ~58-62 (slightly bullish but not overbought) Room to run to 70+ before overbought conditions 🎯 SCENARIO ANALYSIS - WHAT HAPPENS NEXT BASE CASE: Grind Higher to 48,000+ - BULLISH What Happens: Dow consolidates 48,000-48,400 for 2-3 days Then breaks above 48,600 with volume Grinds higher toward 49,000-49,500 Powell's "wait and see" stance removes uncertainty Holiday buying + year-end window dressing pushes higher Timeline: 2-3 weeks (by end of December) Expected Return: +3-4% from 48,000 to 49,500-50,000 Catalysts: Continued corporate buybacks Holiday retail strength Year-end fund rebalancing (institutional buying) No negative Fed surprises (Powell on "pause") BULL CASE: Breakout to 50,500+ - VERY BULLISH What Happens: Market doesn't believe Powell - 68% chance of 2+ cuts in 2026 Strong economic data (retail sales, employment) supports growth Dow breaks 49,500 with conviction FOMO kicks in, target 50,500-51,000 Timeline: 3-4 weeks (by early January) Expected Return: +5-6% from 48,000 Catalysts: Q4 earnings beat expectations Strong holiday retail numbers Dovish Fed speakers in January International capital flows into US equities BEAR CASE : Channel Break to 46,500 - BEARISH What Happens: Economic data deteriorates (unemployment spikes) Earnings disappoint in early Q4 reporting Geopolitical shock (unlikely but possible) Dow breaks below 47,400, tests 46,500-47,000 Timeline: 1-2 weeks Expected Return: -3-4% from 48,000 This is LOW probability given Fed just cut and Powell said "well positioned to wait." 📊 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS - WHY DOW OUTPERFORMS CATALYST #1: The Fed's "Hawkish Cut" Was Actually Dovish Let me explain the paradox: Hawkish Elements: Three dissenting votes Dot plot shows only 1 cut in 2026 Powell says "wait and see" But Dovish Reality: They STILL cut rates (3rd in a row!) GDP forecast raised to 2.5% for 2025 and 2.3% for 2026 Unemployment expectations unchanged at 4.5% for 2025 68% market probability of 2+ cuts in 2026 means market doesn't believe the hawkish talk Net Effect: Lower rates NOW + no immediate threat of hikes = bullish for stocks . CATALYST #2: Corporate Earnings Remain Strong GE Vernova jumped 8% after saying 2025 revenue trending toward higher end of guidance and doubled quarterly dividend. This is indicative of broader Dow strength: Industrial companies benefiting from infrastructure spending Dividend increases signal confidence Guidance raises = earnings momentum CATALYST #3: Small Caps Leading (Risk-On) Russell 2000 jumped to new all-time highs as lower interest rates benefit smaller firms that need to refinance debt. When small caps outperform, it's a risk-on signal . Dow industrials benefit from this environment. CATALYST #4: Year-End Window Dressing Fund managers underperformed in 2025. In December, they buy winners to make their portfolios look good for year-end reports. Dow = full of winners like UnitedHealth, Goldman Sachs, Boeing (recovery story). ⚠️ RISK FACTORS - THE BEAR CASE RISK #1: The Fed Is More Hawkish Than Market Believes Seven officials indicated they want NO cuts next year If the Fed actually holds rates at 3.5-3.75% all of 2026, stocks could stall or correct 5-8%. RISK #2: Channel Break Below 47,000 If Dow closes below 47,000 on daily chart, the ascending channel is broken . Next support: 46,000-46,500 (-4-5%). RISK #3: Economic Data Deteriorates Unemployment at 4.5% is manageable, but rising. If it spikes to 5%+, recession fears return. RISK #4: Geopolitical Shock US Coast Guard seized sanctioned crude tanker off Venezuela. Tensions with Venezuela/Russia could spike oil prices, hurting economy. Entry Confirmation Checklist: Before entering, CHECK: ✅ Price holding above 47,800 (support intact) ✅ Volume on bounce (>50K contracts on daily) ✅ No negative Fed speakers this week ✅ S&P 500 also bouncing (correlation check) ✅ VIX declining below 15 (fear subsiding) ✅ Treasury yields stable or declining WAIT FOR 4/6 CONFIRMATIONS THE BOTTOM LINE Here's what I KNOW on December 10, 2025 (POST-FED): ✅ Dow rallied +497 points (+1.1%) post-Fed to 48,057 ✅ Fed cut 25bps as expected to 3.5-3.75% ✅ Powell says "well positioned to wait and see" ✅ Market pricing 68% chance of 2+ cuts in 2026 ✅ Ascending channel intact since November ✅ Your technical analysis shows clear support/resistance Here's what I DON'T know: Will economic data support more cuts? Will earnings season (Jan) beat or miss? Will geopolitical risks escalate? 📍 Follow officialjackofalltrades for post-FOMC analysis, institutional setups, and professional risk management. Drop a 📊 if you're trading the post-Fed bounce. Drop a 🎯 if this helped your YM1! setup. Drop a 💰 if you're ready for 50K Dow.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by officialjackofalltrades
YM | Week 50T.A explained - BackSide (BS) FrontSide (FS) Inverse BS (Inv.BS) Inverse FS (Inv.FS) BS & FS levels are expected support when dashed lines, tested when dotted and resistance when solid lines. The inverse is true for the Inv. BS Inv. FS levels, they are resistance as dashed lines, tested as dotted and support as solid lines. Monthly timeframe is color pink weekly grey daily is red 4hr is orange 1hr is yellow 15min is blue 5min is green if they are shown. strength favors the higher timeframe. 2x dotted levels are origin levels where trends have or will originate. When trends break, price will target the origin of the trend. its math, when the trend breaks, the vertex breaks too so the higher timeframe level/trend that breaks, the more volatility there could be as strength in the orders flow in to fuel the move.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by StudyGuideTA
YM | Week 49 | 1hr chartT.A explained - BackSide (BS) FrontSide (FS) Inverse BS (Inv.BS) Inverse FS (Inv.FS) BS & FS levels are expected support when dashed lines, tested when dotted and resistance when solid lines. The inverse is true for the Inv. BS Inv. FS levels, they are resistance as dashed lines, tested as dotted and support as solid lines. Monthly timeframe is color pink weekly grey daily is red 4hr is orange 1hr is yellow 15min is blue 5min is green if they are shown. strength favors the higher timeframe. 2x dotted levels are origin levels where trends have or will originate. When trends break, price will target the origin of the trend. its math, when the trend breaks, the vertex breaks too so the higher timeframe level/trend that breaks, the more volatility there could be as strength in the orders flow in to fuel the move.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by StudyGuideTA
YM Week 48 (1hr chart)T.A explained - BackSide (BS) FrontSide (FS) Inverse BS (Inv.BS) Inverse FS (Inv.FS) BS & FS levels are expected support when dashed lines, tested when dotted and resistance when solid lines. The inverse is true for the Inv. BS Inv. FS levels, they are resistance as dashed lines, tested as dotted and support as solid lines. Monthly timeframe is color pink weekly grey daily is red 4hr is orange 1hr is yellow 15min is blue 5min is green if they are shown. strength favors the higher timeframe. 2x dotted levels are origin levels where trends have or will originate. When trends break, price will target the origin of the trend. its math, when the trend breaks, the vertex breaks too so the higher timeframe level/trend that breaks, the more volatility there could be as strength in the orders flow in to fuel the move.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by StudyGuideTA
YM Week 47T.A explained - BackSide (BS) FrontSide (FS) Inverse BS (Inv.BS) Inverse FS (Inv.FS) BS & FS levels are expected support when dashed lines, tested when dotted and resistance when solid lines. The inverse is true for the Inv. BS Inv. FS levels, they are resistance as dashed lines, tested as dotted and support as solid lines. Monthly timeframe is color pink weekly grey daily is red 4hr is orange 1hr is yellow 15min is blue 5min is green if they are shown. strength favors the higher timeframe. 2x dotted levels are origin levels where trends have or will originate. When trends break, price will target the origin of the trend. its math, when the trend breaks, the vertex breaks too so the higher timeframe level/trend that breaks, the more volatility there could be as strength in the orders flow in to fuel the move.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by StudyGuideTA
DOW JONES INDEX GOES 'FIGHT' vs 50-DAY BATTLE LINE AVERAGEThe Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as the Dow Jones index, is a stock market index that tracks 30 of the largest and most established U.S. companies. It serves as a barometer for overall market and economic health, reflecting investor sentiment and trends in blue-chip stocks. From a technical analysis perspective, the Dow Jones is studied to identify price trends, support and resistance levels, and potential reversal points to guide trading and investment decisions. One key technical indicator used in analyzing the Dow Jones index is the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The 50-day SMA calculates the average closing price of the index over the past 50 trading days, smoothing out short-term price fluctuations to highlight the intermediate-term trend. Traders and investors widely monitor the 50-day SMA because it balances responsiveness to recent price changes with reduced noise compared to shorter-term averages. When the Dow Jones index price is above the 50-day SMA, it generally indicates an upward or bullish trend with potential support around the SMA level. Conversely, if the price falls below the 50-day SMA, it may signal a weakening trend or bearish sentiment. The 50-day SMA can also act as a dynamic support or resistance level where price reactions may occur due to the collective attention of market participants at this average. Currently, the Dow Jones trades slightly below its 50-day SMA, which stands at approximately 46,840 points for Dow Jones Futures CBOT_MINI:YM1! . This technical setup suggests caution as the index might face resistance near this average before a possible trend confirmation or reversal. The 50-day SMA is often used in conjunction with other indicators like the 200-day SMA to generate signals, such as the "Golden Cross" or "Death Cross," which signal major trend shifts. In summary, the Dow Jones index technical perspective focuses on using the 50-day SMA as an intermediate trend indicator and key level of market interest, helping traders gauge momentum and potential price direction over the medium term. -- Best wishes, @PandorraResearch Team
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by PandorraResearch
YM - 11/18 (15min chart)Added a Daily box in red, an Hourly SwingLow level in yellow and a 15min Inverse FS hold level in blue as resistance and a 15min accumulation trend in blue. 15min accumulation trend building off the 4hr trend in orange plus its backed by a yearly level in black. Price broke the 4hr accumulation trend on a lower timeframe though so it's just a matter of time until it breaks so price can test lower levels. Unless, price can convince us long pants are trending again, sentiment is shorts all day. T.A explained - BackSide (BS) FrontSide (FS) Inverse BS (Inv.BS) Inverse FS (Inv.FS) BS & FS levels are expected support when dashed lines, tested when dotted and resistance when solid lines. The inverse is true for the Inv. BS Inv. FS levels, they are resistance as dashed lines, tested as dotted and support as solid lines. Monthly timeframe is color pink weekly grey daily is red 4hr is orange 1hr is yellow 15min is blue 5min is green if they are shown. strength favors the higher timeframe. 2x dotted levels are origin levels where trends have or will originate. When trends break, price will target the origin of the trend. its math, when the trend breaks, the vertex breaks too so the higher timeframe level/trend that breaks, the more volatility there could be as strength in the orders flow in to fuel the move.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by StudyGuideTA
1
Dow FUTURE (MYM1!) IntraSwing Level for 13th - 14th Nov 2025Dow FUTURE (MYM1!) IntraSwing Level for 13th - 14th Nov 2025 (3:30 am) Observed Short Range Directionless Trading. Think Waiting for BIG NEWS. Level description: L#1: If the candle crossed & stays above the “Buy Gen”, it is treated / considered as Bullish bias. L#2: Possibility / Probability of REVERSAL near RLB#1 & UBTgt L#3: If the candle stays above “Sell Gen” but below “Buy Gen”, it is treated / considered as Sidewise. Aggressive Traders can take Long position near “Sell Gen” either retesting or crossed from Below & vice-versa i.e. can take Short position near “Buy Gen” either retesting or crossed downward from Above. L#4: If the candle crossed & stays below the “Sell Gen”, it is treated / considered a Bearish bias. L#5: Possibility / Probability of REVERSAL near RLS#1 & USTgt HZB (Buy side) & HZS (Sell side) => Hurdle Zone, *** Specialty of “HZB#1, HZB#2 HZS#1 & HZS#2” is Sidewise (behaviour in Nature) Rest Plotted and Mentioned on Chart Color code Used: Green =. Positive bias. Red =. Negative bias. RED in Between Green means Trend Finder / Momentum Change / CYCLE Change and Vice Versa. Notice One thing: HOW LEVELS are Working. Use any Momentum Indicator / Oscillator or as you "USED to" to Take entry. ⚠️ DISCLAIMER: The information, views, and ideas shared here are purely for educational and informational purposes only. They are not intended as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instruments. I am not a SEBI-registered financial adviser. Trading and investing in the stock market involves risk, and you should do your own research and analysis. You are solely responsible for any decisions made based on this research. "As HARD EARNED MONEY IS YOUR's, So DECISION SHOULD HAVE TO BE YOUR's". Do comment if Helpful . In depth Analysis will be added later (If time Permits)
CBOT_MINI:MYM1!
by DSKF16
Dow Futures (YM) Breaks Record : Five Waves Elliott Wave ImpulseDow Futures (YM) has surged to a new all-time high, reinforcing the prevailing bullish trend. The cycle from the April 2025 low remains active and is unfolding as a five-wave impulsive structure. Within this sequence, wave (3) concluded at 48,214. The subsequent decline in wave (4) developed as a zigzag Elliott Wave formation. From the peak of wave (3), wave ((i)) terminated at 47,616, followed by a corrective rally in wave ((ii)) that reached 48,180. The index then declined in wave ((iii)) to 47,488, before wave ((iv)) produced a modest rebound to 47,869. The final leg, wave ((v)), completed at 46,976, marking the end of wave A. A corrective bounce in wave B subsequently peaked at 47,583. The index then resumed its downward correction in wave C. From wave B, wave ((i)) ended at 47,308, and wave ((ii)) retraced to 47,495. A deeper decline in wave ((iii)) reached 46,894, followed by a brief recovery in wave ((iv)) to 47,207. The final leg, wave ((v)), concluded at 46,575, completing wave C of (4). A bullish reversal has since occurred, with the index breaking to new highs in wave (5). From wave (4), wave ((i)) ended at 47,345, and wave ((ii)) pulled back to 47,031. Wave ((iii)) extended higher to 48,528, followed by a minor retracement in wave ((iv)) to 48,368. One final push higher is expected to complete wave ((v)) of 1. Subsequently, a corrective wave 2 should unfold to retrace the cycle from the 8 November low. Provided the pivot at 46,575 remains intact, dips are anticipated to find support in the 3-, 7-, or 11-swing sequence, paving the way for further upside.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast