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DJIA FUTURES (Mar 2025)DJIA FUTURES (Mar 2025)DJIA FUTURES (Mar 2025)

DJIA FUTURES (Mar 2025)

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Dow Futures (YM) Eyeing Last Upside Push in Wave 5The short-term Elliott Wave outlook for Dow Futures (YM) indicates that the cycle from the April 2025 low continues as a five-wave impulse. As shown in the 1-hour chart, wave (3) of this impulse peaked at 47,323. The subsequent wave (4) pullback unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. From wave (3), wave ((i)) declined to 47,014, followed by a wave ((ii)) rally to 47,162. Wave ((iii)) dropped to 46,693, wave ((iv)) rose to 46,938, and wave ((v)) concluded at 46,507, completing wave A. Wave B bounced to 46,883, and wave C extended lower to 45,391, finalizing wave (4) in the higher degree. The Index has now turned higher in wave (5), but it must break above wave (3) at 47,323 to rule out a double correction. From wave (4), wave ((i)) reached 46,467, with wave ((ii)) pulling back to 45,663. Wave ((iii)) advanced to 46,743, wave ((iv)) dipped to 46,395, and wave ((v)) completed at 46,915, concluding wave 1. A wave 2 pullback is currently underway, correcting the cycle from the October 11 low before resuming higher. As long as the pivot low at 45,391 holds, expect the pullback to find support in a 3, 7, or 11-swing sequence, setting the stage for further upside.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
US Stock Indexes Broke New RecordsCBOT: Micro E-Mini Dow Jones Futures ( CBOT_MINI:MYM1! ) After a 9-day delay due to the U.S. government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the September CPI data on October 24th. Here are the highlights: • The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis in September, after rising 0.4% in August. • On an annual basis, the headline inflation rose 3.0% before seasonal adjustment. • The CPI index for all items less food and energy, commonly known as the Core CPI, rose 0.2% in September, after rising 0.3% in each of the 2 preceding months. As cooling inflation data spurred investor optimism, U.S. stocks reached new heights again on Friday. The market expects the Federal Reserve to stay on its rate-cutting path, boosting the U.S. economy and justifying higher stock valuations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 472.51 points, or 1.01%, to 47,207.12, securing its first close above the 47,000 level. The S&P 500 added 0.79% to 6,791.69, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.15% to 23,204.87. All three closed at records. Following the CPI data, traders increased their stakes that the Fed will cut rates in October and December. Odds for a December cut jumped to 98.5% from roughly 91% before the data, per the CME FedWatch tool. Odds for a cut next week remained above 95%. The Case of Dow over S&P and Nasdaq As of Friday, the Dow gained 10.55% year-to-date, while the S&P rose 15.01% and the Nasdaq was 20.18% higher in 2025. Why did the Dow lag behind the S&P and the Nasdaq? A simple answer is due to its lower index weight on technology. Since the current bull market is primarily driven by A.I., the Dow benefited less comparing to the other two stock indexes. The Dow has six component companies in the technology sector. Their combined weight comes to 20.91% of the 30-stock index as of today. • Microsoft (MSFT), 6.82% • IBM (IBM), 4.00% • Apple (AAPL), 3.42% • Salesforce (CRM), 3.32% • Nvidia (NVDA), 2.43% • Cisco (CSCO), 0.92% For a comparison, the S&P 500 has a weighing of 31.6% on Information Technology, while the Nasdaq-100 has a weighing between 62.48% - 64.45% for Technology. In my opinion, the stock market has already beaten up so much on the A.I. hype, and it is late in the bull market cycle. The Nasdaq-100 has a lofty valuation with a Price/Earnings ratio of 33.25 (trailing 12-month), according to Birinyi Associates. Meanwhile, the Dow has a more reasonable P/E ratio of 24.90. I am bullish on U.S. stocks long term. However, I share the growing concerns about potential collusion among AI companies. Types of AI collusion under investigation: • Partnerships and investments: Tech giants invest billions into AI startups. Are these deals designed to control the AI ecosystem and suppress competition? • Algorithmic price-fixing: Companies may use AI-powered pricing algorithms to inflate prices. Antitrust agencies are actively scrutinizing potential collusive outcomes. • AI companies may use shared platforms or common algorithms to align market strategies, potentially forming a tacit "hub-and-spoke" conspiracy. • Companies initially release AI models as "open source" to gain market share, accumulate data, and establish an ecosystem, only to later close off access. • Dominant tech firms with control over cloud computing infrastructure, proprietary data, and massive financial resources could entrench their positions in the AI market. To summarize, the Dow is a safer bull-market strategy given its more reasonable valuation. Investors are wise to stay clear off the potential crush on the A.I. hype. Trading with Micro E-Mini Dow Jones Futures If a trader shares a bullish view on the Dow, he may consider using stock index futures to enhance investment returns. Micro E-Mini Dow Jones futures (MYM) offer smaller-sized versions of CME Group’s benchmark Dow Jones futures (YM) contracts. Micro futures have a contract size of 0.5 times the DJIA index, which is 1/10th of the standard contract. CME data shows that the E-Mini and Micro Dow Jones futures have a combined open interest of 105,674 contracts as of Friday. Due to the government shutdown, the CFTC Commitment of Traders report has not been updated since September 23rd. We are currently in the dark about the “Smart Money” positions in the Dow. Buying or selling one MYM contract requires an initial margin of $1,371. With Friday settlement price of 47,396, each December contract (MYMZ5) has a notional value of $23,857. Compared with investing in stocks, the futures contracts offer a built-in leverage of about 17 times (=23857/1371). Hypothetically, if Dow futures price moves up 5% to 49,766 by December, the index gain of 2,370 points will translate into $1,185 for a long position, given each index point equal to $0.50 for the Micro contract. Using the initial margin of $1,371 as a cost base, the trade would produce a theoretical return of 86.4% (=1185/1371). Futures contracts have expiration days, and you may not hold them forever like stocks. To stay long in the DJIA, a trader may consider a futures rollover strategy. An illustration: • A trader buys the lead contract December now, and holds it till the end of November • He will then sell December and buy March, which will become the next lead contract • He will repeat this process: buy June 2025 and sell March 2026 in February 2026 • Repeat this again to buy September 2026 and sell June 2026 in August 2026 This series of trades allows a trader to establish a long position in the DJIA throughout the year, while holding the most liquid contracts. There is no guarantee that each trade will yield positive returns. But if the Dow is trending up over time, the position would likely pay off. The leverage feature in futures works both ways. It would magnify the losses as well as improving the winnings. The good news is, a trader could put stop-loss on his futures trades, limiting the downside risks. For example, our trader may set stop-loss at 45,000 when he buys the MYM at 47,396. If the Dow falls to 40,000, his position will be liquidated well before that when the price hits 45,000. The maximum loss incurred will be $1,198 (= (47396 - 45000) * 0.5), which is less than the initial margin of $1,371. The combination of Futures Rollover with Stop-loss could yield higher returns (thanks to the leverage) while maintaining a limited loss exposure. If the index bounces up and down but trends up in the long stretch, the trader will see both wins and losses. Since the wins are unbounded but the losses are contained, the overall returns would likely be positive. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
Mini Dow Jones retracing to a supply zoneHello traders, I've spotted a very strong supply zone on this chart, and we're currently approaching it from below. Despite this, there's still solid bullish momentum holding above the 46820 price level, with price action re-entering the range and hinting at potential upside continuation. I'm entering long here, optimistic about a bounce or breakout. Key levels to watch: Entry: 46800 Stop Loss: 60 ticks Take Profit: below supply zone Let's see how this plays out—I'll share updates as it develops. What do you think of this setup? I'm not a financial advisor. Trade responsibly!
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by oky_capriatto
YM Updated levels for week 43 BS & FS levels are expected support when dashed lines, tested when dotted and resistance when solid lines. The inverse is true for the Inv. BS Inv. FS levels, they are resistance as dashed lines, tested as dotted and support as solid lines. Monthly timeframe is color pink weekly grey daily is red 4hr is orange 1hr is yellow 15min is blue 5min is green if they are shown. strength favors the higher timeframe. 2x dotted levels are origin levels where trends have or will originate. When trends break, price will target the origin of the trend. its math, when the trend breaks, the vertex breaks too so the higher timeframe level/trend that breaks, the more volatility there could be as strength in the orders flow in to fuel the move.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by StudyGuideTA
Dow Jones - Looking To Sell Pullbacks In The Short TermH4 - Strong bearish move. Uptrend line breakout. No opposite signs. Currently it looks like a pullback is happening. Expecting bearish continuation after pullback until the strong resistance zone holds. If you enjoy this idea, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌, and COMMENT ✍! Drop your thoughts and charts below to keep the discussion going. Your support helps keep this content free and reach more people! 🚀
CMCMARKETS:US30Z2025Short
by VladimirRibakov
YM 10/13I went a little overkill with the levels. Black = last year and this year so far high, low, and median ranges pink = monthly high, low, and median ranges grey = weekly levels red = daily orange = 4hr yellow = 1hr blue = 15min levels Inv. levels are resistance BS / FS levels are support with different static expectations: BackSide levels should have a strong reaction to price while FrontSide levels should support price until accumulation candles can start engulfing to cause a reversal trend. if, those expecations dont happen within 3-5 mins on a lower timeframe, they aren't happening on a higher timeframe without risk so exit and find a different range, untested level to target or wait until the correct candles begin forming after the level tests to re-enter. These 4 candles (2 in the accumulation ranges, 2 in the distribution ranges) create 6 levels that paint a story. I don't mark the swingHigh or SwingLow's and favor the FS and inv.FS levels which reduce risk.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by StudyGuideTA
June FOMC Pullback to 43,000Using my FOMC levels, I am expecting a pullback back down to 43,000 to mitigate some orders and to find support. What am I basing this on? I am basing this on the huge gap between prices from June FOMC and July FOMC. Below is the 8-hour chart showing my thought process Here are examples of this price gap return My long-term thesis is to use the top FOMC releases as resistance and when price does breakout into the 50k's, will turn them into major support
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
FOMC Support and Resistance Levels To Watch For 2025Below are my FOMC levels I have mapped out. Prices move SOLELY from FOMC releases. This is a concept I first discovered last year and since then, have still been perfecting it. I want to see the July FOMC hold as a short term support level before rallying into the September FOMC as resistance for the pullback dump. Ultimately, I am looking for January 2024 FOMC to hold as the next major long term bottom before breaking out into the 48,000-50,000s Below I will post screenshots of how FOMC levels are used as I am not good explaining. Take the time to study these charts and see for yourself that Dow Jones makes it's price action based on the releases of FOMC. Protected Levels: Levels that do not get touched and are defended. Resistance Levels: Support Levels: And of course, the biggest support level used with the April dump right into May 2023 FOMC Mean Reversion Levels: These levels even work intra day. Take a look below to see how well these are respected.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
YM 10/7Highest timeframes are strongest Weekly = grey 4hr = orange 1hr = yellow 15min = blue 5min = green Inverse levels marked INV. FS or INV.BS are resistance levels unless solid lines FS or BS levels are support unless solid lines BS levels have an expectation to have a strong reaction to price while FS levels hold price stable until a reversal can occur. IF those expectations aren't being met in the first 5mins on a 1min timeframe, THEN price is likely targeting a different range/level and or liquidity is not there.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by StudyGuideTA
End of Year GameplanPrice is currently in a bullish spike and grind channel. Price is moving 1200 ticks up and 800 ticks down in a grindy up and down bullish trend. Friday, August 22nd was the breakout from the July range and since then, has now been grinding. 800 ticks down from the recent high would put Dow in the park around 46,300 or so. This would mean we are in a counter trend pullback phase with a couple of down days. After the pullback, 1200 ticks higher would put Dow around 47,750 or so. With the final quarter of 2025 upon us, I am curious where it will close at. So far it has been a choppy year. Our current price action reminds me of late 2020, early 2021. Just a grinding march higher and a complete chop fest.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
YM - 10/6Pink = Monthly timeframe levels Grey = weekly Red = Daily Orange = 4hr Yellow = 1hr Inv. levels are resistance BS or FS levels are support with different expectations. BS = strong reaction to price. FS = Slow reaction to price, creates an accumulation trend and candles. If/ they statements guide my thinking. If The nearest 1hr BS level is tested, then is should have a strong reaction to price. If not, then the frontside candle will be targeted to create trend. If not, then a lower range, trend or level is being targeted. If candles of support / resistance are not formed in 3-5mins then exit and find a better entry.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by StudyGuideTA
Dow Jones Index Faces Critical Resistance Amid Market Vol. Current Price: $46758.28 Direction: SHORT Targets: - T1 = $45900 - T2 = $45100 Stop Levels: - S1 = $46950 - S2 = $47200 **Wisdom of Professional Traders:** This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, emphasizing the importance of identifying critical resistance levels and downside risk. Professional traders have recently highlighted bearish signals in Dow Jones, driven by waning momentum in broader equity indices and key macroeconomic factors. Collective intelligence from market specialists suggests increasing caution as the Dow approaches resistance levels, with signs of profit-taking keeping downward pressure on short-term price action. **Key Insights:** Dow Jones currently faces headwinds stemming from macroeconomic uncertainty, including higher-than-expected interest rate levels and tightening credit markets. The Federal Reserve has signaled a ‘higher for longer’ approach to interest rates, challenging equities broadly as borrowing costs surge. Traders are also focused on the elevated valuation of industrial and blue-chip stocks within the Dow, suggesting limited upside without significant earnings surprises in upcoming Q3 reports. Technically, the index is battling resistance at the $47000 level, a key psychological barrier. Momentum indicators such as the RSI and MACD are showing bearish divergences, adding downward pressure. Fibonacci retracement levels also reflect potential downside to key price targets near $45900 and $45100—consistent with medium-term chart patterns suggesting further pullback before a possible consolidation phase. **Recent Performance:** In recent sessions, Dow Jones has shown mixed performance, fluctuating between $46500 and $47000 amid volatile trading conditions. While the index experienced a brief rally following improved manufacturing data in late September 2025, weak employment growth and persistent inflation concerns have brought renewed selling pressure. Notably, industrial stocks underperformed compared to tech-heavy indices such as the NASDAQ, indicating risk aversion among traders in the current climate. **Expert Analysis:** Technical analysts point to deteriorating momentum on daily and weekly charts. The MACD histogram has crossed into negative territory for the first time since mid-June, signaling bearish sentiment. Additionally, the Average True Range (ATR) has widened, implying increased volatility—often indicative of bearish moves in major indices. Sectoral weaknesses in key Dow components, including construction machinery and pharmaceuticals, are applying further downward drag. With liquidity tightening and earnings season likely producing mixed outcomes, market sentiment leans toward defensive positioning. **News Impact:** Economic news continues to weigh heavily on the Dow. Last week’s hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted at additional rate hikes in late Q4 2025, unsettling investors. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in Asia and the Middle East have surged, adding risk premiums and dampening optimism for industrial growth. Corporate earnings forecasts have also been downgraded for blue-chip firms such as 3M and Caterpillar, compounding broader market hesitations. **Trading Recommendation:** Considering current market dynamics and technical factors, a short position is advisable for Dow Jones. The index's inability to breach its $47000 resistance level combined with bearish signal patterns offers a high-probability setup for downside movement. Traders should aim for targets at $45900 and $45100, with stop levels set at $46950 and $47200 to mitigate risk from sudden volatility. This trade aligns with prevailing market sentiment and offers potential profits from retracement over the next few weeks. Do you want to save hours every week? Register for the free weekly update in your language!
OSE:DJIA1!Short
by CrowdWisdomTrading
Daytrading Setup NY High of Day Dump Buy Low of Day TutorialOne of my favorite setups that I love to trade is the range day's New York High of Day dump buying Low of Day. This setup does not require ANY "top down" analysis and only requires the 15-minute chart. All you need is to wait a couple hours after NY opened and run its course. By waiting, you accomplish a few things 1. Avoid getting faked out 2. Get to see the day's ATR 3. Ability to calculate the day's position size better 4. Buy near the low of day, targeting the full daily range Below is the setup and the ideal entry point. One thing I have learned over the years is to never chase giant candles. The market will always give the best entry with the smallest possible candle. Step One: 30 minutes before the open of New York Mark the Daily Opening Price Find and mark the initial low of day Since you want to be buying the low of day, don't worry too much about the initial high of day. You are looking for the New York's high of day. Initial HOD/LOD = Highs and Lows placed before NY New York HOD/LOD = Highs and Lows made by NY Step Two: Let NY open and do its thing. You are waiting for the NY HOD to be put in place. How do you know when NY has put in it's High of Day? You wait for a swing point. Step Three: Mark NY's High of Day Step Four: Wait until price dumps down and takes out the initial Low of Day. You want to be buying as close to the lows as you can. Never get caught buying the highs of day. Step Five: Mark the new NY Low of Day Step Six: Wait for your entry How will you know what the specific entry will be to enter? You won't 100% but what will help guide you is to not enter on giant bars. Step Seven: Plan and Execute the trade There are many variations of this setup and it is up to you to study and recognize the small differences. The market is not going to make it easy for you. Two biggest tips is one, buy near the NY low of day and two, never chase giant candles. Wait for small bull candles near the low. Another tip. If your high of day target has not been hit before NY closes, the best course of action is to set up a Good till Canceled bracket order and hold overnight until target hit. Taking small, partial profits will blow your account. You need full winners. The edge holding overnight is too good to close your trade at the NY close. Hold overnight.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
2