Part two emphasis on goldI was supposed to do some work on Trading View to set up my tools but I failed to do that and this turned into an analysis of price action as it pertained to gold...
Probably tomorrow there will be another video but it will be focused on fixing the tools to make my life a lot easier and as I said if I get that result from my friend we will make it available to other people at no cost.
Trade ideas
Gold Futures – Compression Before Explosion?Gold (GC1!) is coiling tightly just above the $3,998 level, teasing a big move as it hugs the 0.618 fib zone at $3,921. It’s the definition of compression — and when gold coils like this, something always gives.
📍 Key levels on the radar:
$3,998 – Current pressure zone
$3,921 – Fib support + breakout base
$3,602 – Worst-case flush if demand fails
$4,489 – Fibonacci extension target if this rips
We’ve got an ascending pitchfork, clean market structure, and a massive range breakout setup. These kinds of patterns don’t sit idle for long.
Gold remains a beast in uncertain macro conditions — don’t underestimate what happens when fear, rates, and inflation mix.
Trading Wisdom 📜
The bigger the coil, the nastier the move. Don’t focus on direction — focus on readiness. Gold pays those who stay patient and deadly.
Disclaimer: What you read here is not financial advice — it’s high-level market philosophy from the FXPROFESSOR himself. Risk is real, and your capital is your responsibility. Learn, adapt, evolve.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Commodity Market Analysis: The Core of Global Trade1. Understanding the Commodity Market
Commodities are divided mainly into two categories:
Hard Commodities: Natural resources that are mined or extracted, such as gold, crude oil, copper, and natural gas.
Soft Commodities: Agricultural products and livestock, such as wheat, coffee, sugar, cotton, and cattle.
The commodity market allows producers, traders, and investors to trade these items through spot markets (for immediate delivery) and futures markets (contracts for future delivery at predetermined prices). Futures contracts are the most popular instruments in commodity trading because they allow participants to hedge risk and speculate on price movements.
2. Importance of Commodity Market Analysis
Commodity market analysis helps determine where prices are heading and why. Because commodities are essential for every economy—from manufacturing to energy to agriculture—their prices influence inflation, exchange rates, and corporate profits. Investors and traders analyze this market to:
Identify investment opportunities
Hedge against inflation and currency fluctuations
Forecast economic growth or slowdown
Manage risk and portfolio diversification
For example, rising crude oil prices often signal economic strain, while increasing metal prices might suggest industrial growth.
3. Types of Commodity Market Analysis
Commodity analysis can be broadly categorized into fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Each approach provides different insights into price movements.
A. Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysis focuses on understanding the underlying factors that affect supply and demand. For commodities, these factors include:
Supply Factors:
Weather conditions (affecting crops like wheat or coffee)
Mining output and energy production levels
Government policies, export restrictions, or trade tariffs
Geopolitical tensions or wars disrupting supply chains
Demand Factors:
Industrial and manufacturing growth
Population growth and changing consumption habits
Technological advancements (like electric vehicles increasing demand for lithium and copper)
Seasonal demand variations (e.g., more oil consumption in winter)
Fundamental analysts often look at inventory levels, production reports, and global trade data to estimate price directions. For example, if OPEC announces production cuts, it often leads to a rise in crude oil prices due to reduced supply.
B. Technical Analysis
Technical analysis studies price patterns, volume data, and historical trends to forecast future movements. It assumes that all market information is reflected in prices and that human behavior often repeats in patterns.
Key tools include:
Candlestick charts: Show price movement patterns like “Doji,” “Hammer,” or “Engulfing,” which can signal reversals or continuations.
Support and Resistance levels: Help identify price zones where buying or selling pressure increases.
Indicators: Such as Moving Averages (MA), Relative Strength Index (RSI), MACD, and Volume Profile, which help identify trends and momentum.
Volume analysis: Confirms whether price moves are supported by strong participation.
For instance, if gold breaks above a major resistance with high volume, it signals strong bullish sentiment.
4. Major Global Commodity Exchanges
Commodities are traded across various international exchanges that set global benchmarks:
New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) – for crude oil, natural gas, and metals
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) – for agricultural commodities
London Metal Exchange (LME) – for industrial metals like copper, aluminum, and zinc
Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), India – for gold, silver, crude oil, and base metals
National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), India – for agricultural products
These exchanges operate under strict regulations, ensuring transparent price discovery and risk management.
5. Key Commodities and Their Drivers
Let’s look at some key commodities and what drives their prices:
Crude Oil:
Driven by OPEC decisions, geopolitical conflicts, global demand, and inventory data. Oil is sensitive to global growth expectations and energy transitions toward renewables.
Gold:
Considered a safe-haven asset. Its price moves inversely with the U.S. dollar and interest rates. During economic uncertainty, inflation, or political instability, investors flock to gold.
Silver and Copper:
Silver acts both as a precious and industrial metal, while copper is an industrial growth indicator. Their prices rise with manufacturing demand and fall with economic slowdowns.
Agricultural Commodities:
Prices of wheat, soybeans, and coffee depend heavily on weather, global harvest reports, and export-import policies.
Natural Gas:
Influenced by seasonal demand, storage levels, and geopolitical factors (e.g., disruptions in gas supply from Russia or the Middle East).
6. Global Economic and Political Impact
The commodity market is deeply tied to global macroeconomic and political conditions. For example:
Inflation: Rising commodity prices often lead to inflation, as they increase costs for manufacturers and consumers.
Currency movements: A stronger U.S. dollar typically lowers commodity prices (as they are priced in dollars), while a weaker dollar lifts them.
Geopolitical tensions: Conflicts in oil-producing regions, like the Middle East, can cause supply disruptions and sudden price spikes.
Interest rates: Higher interest rates strengthen the dollar and reduce demand for non-yielding assets like gold.
Thus, traders must keep track of global news, central bank policies, and trade agreements to anticipate market reactions.
7. Risk Management in Commodity Trading
Commodity markets are highly volatile, making risk management essential. Traders use strategies like:
Hedging: Producers and consumers lock in prices through futures contracts to protect against price fluctuations.
Diversification: Investing in multiple commodities to reduce exposure to one sector.
Stop-loss orders: Limiting losses when trades go against expectations.
Position sizing: Managing capital allocation to avoid overexposure.
For instance, an airline company may hedge against rising fuel prices by purchasing crude oil futures.
8. The Role of Technology and Algorithms
Modern commodity trading is increasingly driven by AI algorithms, data analytics, and automated systems. Traders use real-time data to analyze weather patterns, satellite imagery (for crop forecasting), and global supply chain movements. This digital transformation enhances precision and speed in decision-making.
Platforms now integrate Volume Profile Analysis and Market Structure Analysis to study institutional order flow and liquidity zones, giving traders a professional edge in spotting reversals and breakouts.
9. India’s Commodity Market Scenario
India is emerging as a major player in global commodity trading, particularly in gold, silver, and agricultural goods. Exchanges like MCX and NCDEX provide transparent, electronic platforms for traders. The introduction of commodity options, delivery-based contracts, and SEBI regulation has made the market more robust and investor-friendly.
With India’s growing energy and industrial demand, its role in setting regional commodity trends is increasing. Government policies on renewable energy and agriculture will further shape the market outlook.
10. Conclusion
Commodity market analysis is an essential skill for anyone involved in global trade, investing, or risk management. Understanding the interplay between supply-demand factors, geopolitical shifts, and technical indicators helps predict market direction more accurately. While volatility remains high, informed analysis enables traders and investors to turn uncertainty into opportunity.
In the modern era, commodities are not just physical goods—they’re strategic financial assets that influence inflation, economic policy, and portfolio performance. Whether you’re trading gold, oil, or agricultural futures, a strong grasp of market fundamentals and technical tools can unlock significant growth potential in this dynamic sector.
US Employment Data Positive for GOLD Prices. Can GOLD reverse?GOLD is declining in falling channel pattern however seems to be taking support at the marked trendline.
US Employment data came just in where number of jobs added was better than expectations which would mean a stronger labour market and inflation might stay elevated which is good for GOLD/SILVER due to safe haven demand in the long term.
Keep an eye on GOLD prices.
Comex Gold As prices seen in a consolidation phase from past 7 sessions. Current Support intact $3900 coincide 50DEMA along 50% fib retracement level, if prices fail sustain above support level, can see towards next support zone $3800--$3600 alien with 61.8% Feb. retracement level.
In other scenario, if prices sustain above support level, above 20DEMA-$4000 prices can will see gaining the strength towards $4200.
Whereas if US-China Trade deal tensions, Fed's unchanged rate, US shutdown can continued to see gold stuck into a long time consolidation phase .
Choosing Your Path in Futures TradingThere’s more than one way to participate in the futures markets. Whether you're hands-on or prefer a more passive approach, selecting the right method depends on your trading goals, risk tolerance, and available time. Here’s a breakdown of the most common approaches used by active and aspiring futures traders.
1. Self-Directed Trading
If you like full control over your trades, this approach is for you. It requires staying up to date on market news, analyzing charts, and executing your own trades according to a plan and framework which can be referred to as your “strategy.” Experienced traders may prefer this model for its flexibility and transparency.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
2. Automated Trading Systems
These systems use predefined rules to analyze data and execute trades without manual intervention. They can be ideal for traders who want to capitalize on algorithmic speed and logic while minimizing emotional decision-making, or for traders who might not have the time to dedicate to self-directed trading.
EdgeClear offers connectivity to a handful of automated programs, if you are interested in learning more please contact us.
3. Managed Futures
For a more passive route, managed futures allow you to invest in futures contracts through a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) or Commodity Pool Operator (CPO). The advisor handles the trading, using their expertise to manage risk and seek opportunity.
4. Broker-Assisted Trading
Prefer to have a trusted guide by your side? With broker-assisted trading, a professional helps execute trades, manage risk, and offer support—all tailored to your preferences.
Key Takeaway
Every trader’s journey in the futures markets looks different. Whether you thrive on taking full control of your trades, prefer automated systems, or rely on professional guidance, the key is to find the approach that aligns with your goals, risk tolerance, and lifestyle.
Understanding the options available self-directed, automated, managed, or broker-assisted empowers you to trade more confidently and effectively.
Call to Action
At EdgeClear, we’re dedicated to helping traders at every level find the tools, guidance, and support they need to succeed. Explore our platforms, connect with our expert brokers, or follow us on TradingView to discover more Trade Ideas and educational content to refine your edge.
Gold BullishWe are definitely bullish, with the market after hours slowly building back profit. I believe that gold will follow, it slowly building back momentum will be a green light for the Asia session today 11/17 as well as future days.
The reason that I am very adamant about this is because the market has been very low lately but with NVDA earnings coming out I believe that the market will go up this week including Gold, Nasdaq and S&P 500.
Where To Next?I am currently focused on the consolidation zone (see the green rectangle) that formed a few days ago. Following a breakout to the upside, price promptly retested and closed yesterday just above the top boundary of that consolidation. However, today’s action saw a failure to sustain outside the zone and a return back into the prior consolidation range. While I hope this view proves incorrect, my expectation is for further weakness in gold over the coming days.
Technical considerations driving this outlook:
• The breakout lacked follow-through and the retest did not hold beyond the breakout level.
• Re-entry into the consolidation zone signals a potential loss of upward momentum and increased risk of a reversal or deeper pull-back.
• As traders, given the current structure we should err on the side of caution—if the market cannot sustain above the breakout level, then the likelihood of downside increases.
Let’s keep the risk-reward clearly defined—if gold (XAU/USD) fails to reclaim the breakout zone convincingly, I will lean toward short or neutral positioning rather than placing bullish bets under current structure.
⸻
Supporting quote from the latest news:
“MCX Gold futures are currently navigating a critical juncture… marked by a retreat from significant trendline resistance and the establishment of a sideways market structure. … The immediate outlook suggests short-term bearish pressure.”
I’m sitting out until I can see clear structure and direction.
Gold "World"
(this is my plan): If end-of-year 2025 gold around 3800-4000, it might be low 3500 in first quarter of 2026.. then i buy asap physical gold and trade online. You know why ?? here is my buy physical gold/trade online journey (short long my story):
- year 2006: first time gold reached $600, i bought asap.. and i know gold never come back.
- year 2015: beginning of year gold went down from ~$1900, it was ~$1000, i bought physical gold asap until gold reached almost $4000 for now.
- present: waiting for going down $3500-$3000 in future, will buy 3rd time in my life.
Life is a game.. i just wanna secure my life in next 10 yrs :))
Disclaimer: Whatever i said is my planned.. might not your plans.
GOLD (XAU-GC) BUY PLAN📊 Market Sentiment
Market sentiment for GOLD remains strongly bullish. One of the key drivers is the aggressive accumulation by global central banks. Recession concerns and persistent inflation fears continue to position gold as one of the most attractive safe-haven assets.
📈 Technical Analysis
Price has completed the expected accumulation phase and broke out strongly from the accumulation range. This former range has now turned into a clear demand zone. Price has pulled back into this zone again and is currently testing the $4060 level.
📌 Game Plan
The $4060–$3900 zone is my primary buy zone. I will continue accumulating within this range.
My first target is $4250, followed by $4400, which aligns with new all-time-high expectations.
If price closes below $3900 on the daily, this idea becomes invalid. Therefore, my stop is a daily close under $3900.
💬 If this breakdown aligns with your outlook, like and comment below.
For deeper sentiment and strategy insights, subscribe to my Substack free access available.
⚠️ This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before trading or investing.
GC! Level watchGold's resistance remains above current levels $4,150+ with a slightly bearish short‐term tone, so given the slightly weakened momentum and the presence of headwinds (stronger USD, hawkish Fed commentary), the most likely scenario for today is range-bound to mildly downward action, unless a strong catalyst emerges. So, if price holds above the ~$4,000–$4,050 support band, a rebound attempt toward ~$4,120–$4,150 is plausible. Conversely, if support breaks, we could see a move toward ~$3,900 or even ~$3,800 in an aggressive sell-off.
The Leap Update - November CompetitionHere is some analysis on the pairs I am in in this Leap round. Quite a bit away from the top 10 place, but anything is possible. Remember, luck plays a part, but it flattens itself out more over a period of time. There is a month to trade, so just stay in your own lane and you will do better than worrying too much about how someone else is doing. Nobody has consistently even made it in the top 10 consecutively.
Hope you enjoyed the analysis.
R2F Trading
Gold Futures (GC1!) – Key Breakdown Holding, Equal Lows in Sight
Gold is currently trading below a major intraday level (4,110–4,115) after a clean breakdown and rejection on the retest. That failed reclaim confirms this zone as new resistance, shifting the near-term structure bearish.
Price is now sitting underneath a multi-touch level, and the market has a very obvious draw:
the equal lows resting just below the 4,020 → 4,000 range.
Market Structure
Lower high formed after the sharp selloff
Clear break in structure
Retest of resistance was rejected
Momentum continues to favor downside
Liquidity Outlook
There’s a cluster of untapped liquidity sitting beneath recent lows. Gold often sweeps these “equal lows” before making a meaningful move.
Targets below include:
4,020 → 4,000 liquidity sweep
3,975 intermediate reaction zone
3,902 (higher-timeframe demand + major resting liquidity)
As long as price remains below 4,110–4,115, the downside continuation remains the higher-probability scenario.
Invalidation
The bearish idea is invalidated only if gold reclaims 4,115 with strength.
A clean break and hold above that level opens the door back into:
4,183
4,209
4,225
…where unfilled imbalance sits overhead.
Bias
Short-term bearish until equal lows are taken.
Looking for continuation into the liquidity pool below before any meaningful bounce.
Long Gold, Read description is a must Yeah, I’ll be honest , this one’s a bit of a forced setup. It’s not really my usual day trading style, and it doesn’t fully align with my playbook, but I still see potential in Gold here. I’ve been tracking the consolidation after that last leg down, and we finally got a breakout to the upside.
My broader view hasn’t changed though , I’m expecting a deeper correction once price taps that black line. If we get a retrace into the yellow box, that’s where I’d start looking for a long setup. But if price skips the retrace and tags the black line straight away, I’m sitting on my hands , that zone is a key decision point, and patience will pay off there. Once we confirm that the price is heading down, then we ride that wave down, if it happens.
Gold Buys for Next WeekAfter the mid-October sell-off, Gold entered a period of consolidation lasting more than a week. Price showed clear indecision during this phase. Buyers were convinced the correction had run its course, while sellers continued to push for a deeper move down.
Once the U.S. government reopened, the bullish continuation many traders anticipated finally came through.
Following this minor pullback, I want to see buyers step back in and drive price higher, ideally making a move to retest the previous all-time highs.






















