SA40cash ALSI 3 day IHS patternALSI top40cash cash is forming a bottoming IHS pattern over the last 3 days, solid breakup above 58200 will confirm the pattern
AFRICA40 trade ideas
T40In my research report for Monday 12 September, I highlighted the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone as a resistance level. Since then, the index is lower by over 6100 points or -9.7%.
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JSE Top40JSE:J200 is back at the recent lows (58.6K-ish). Most stocks are weak, what are the odds that the Top40 can bounce here? Add the middle of nowhere low near 56K. Rough market.
ALSI SA40cash chart updateafter loosing the 59300 support today, ALSI now looks to the next target which is about 1.50% lower (875pts)
JSE Top 40 IndexA slide from today's research report, published to clients yesterday evening:
Unchanged From Last Week 12 September. Line A_B is a key risk level over the medium term. As previously noted, there is a clear supply zone that has been in place since Q1 2021. This level also represents the (former) supply and (current) demand zone extending back to November 2017. A downside breach of line A_B would increase the odds of a test of prior supply-demand zone.
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J200 ShortTop 40 Downside Model. Break of support structures will see more pain in equities.
Fundementals: USD strength, EM weakness, FOMC (75?100?) CPI Sep?
South Africa.
A Sound of Thunder.
Should affect commodities.
Commodity index, the commodity boom is heading towards its logical end.
EWI believes that this is an impulse, however, it can take the form of a multiple zigzag.
At the moment it is at the levels corresponding to the end of the plane in X of the multiple zigzag.
ALSI top40cash bearish flag breaking to downsideALSI has formed a bearish flag over the last 2 sessions that projects a target down to about 61200 level, this could take a few days to get there, however trading above 63000 negates the pattern.
JSE Top 40 Index - Seasonality Data For September (Over 20 Yrs)JSE Top 40 Index - Seasonality Data For September (Over 20 Years)
- Average % return is -0.96%
- *Only* 7 out of 20 Septembers have delivered a positive return.
- Largest gain: +9.77% (2005)
- Largest decline: -14.91% (2008)
JSE Top 40 Index August SeasonalityJSE Top 40 August Seasonality Data - 20 Years - AVERAGE PERFORMANCE is +0.80%
AUG: In the past 20 Years, 12 August's have delivered a positive return.
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JSE Top 40: DataOver a 7-year period, there have been 14 weeks (including last week) where the index returned more than 4.5%.
The average return in the subsequent week is -0.07%.
Largest decline was -3.06%.
Largest gain was +4.34%
6 of the subsequent weeks saw a positive return, while 7 saw a negative return.
Bearish Trendline & MA50 tested, 2000-3000 pointsSA40/J200 gained almost 5% for the past week, we expect a reversal for the last week of July 2022/
Trendline tested as well as MA50, 62000 is also a strong psychological resistance, we went short at 62000
Analyst Thoughts: Pre-Market Europe/Mid-Session Asia - 19 July Analyst Thoughts: Pre-Market Europe/Mid-Session Asia - 19 July
Asia lower, US futures slightly higher. Lack of follow-through during US session.
More downside for the JSE ALSI40 - INV C and H - 15 JUly 2022The breakout hasn't been a strong one to the downside, but it's still below the current support (which has become a resistance).
If a catalyst breaks out to send the markets further down, we could see 50,000 on the cards...
What do you think?
Trade well, live free.
Timon Rossolimos
Founder, MATI Trader
ALSI top40 monthly charttop40 is currently in its 5th down month. the last time we saw this was in 2011 and 2008, all of which market the low, be interesting to see if we can break that pattern this time
Analyst Thoughts: Pre-Market Europe/Mid-Session Asia - 13 July * Poor reaction to US inflation data but markets managing to stabilize with some buying into the US close to pare the losses.
* USD retracing slightly which also relieved pressure on equities
* Volatility higher on the day. Small caps shedding the most.
*JSE: Markets continuing to retreat from swing highs seen last Friday although there was some buying off yesterday's lows.
*NPN/PRX continue to being sold from their overbought positions as Tencent trends lows. As a result, some SA Inc plays managing to hold up on a relative basis.
* Gold attempting to recover off the lows as DXY was sold following the inflation print. DXY higher again this morning.
j200 breaking down, bears in full controlALSI top40 has formed a bearish cup and handle over the last 4 days, further downside can be expected
Analyst Thoughts: Pre-Market Europe/Mid-Session Asia - 12 July Published on the client platform earlier this morning
Analyst Thoughts: Pre-Market Europe Mid Session Asia
Following a much weaker open, S. African equities managed to narrow some of it's losses at the beginning of the week but not by enough to completely shed the negative sentiment which has been cast over global risk assets at the beginning of the week. What's weighing? Inflation concerns + central bank interest rate path + global growth + geopolitical relations (see Russia, Germany energy issues) + global social unrest (see Sri Lanka & China) + Chinese Covid-19 cases. Later today, U.S earnings season commences with large cap banks being the first to update the market on their Q2 performance. US equities closing lower overnight with the aforementioned issues weighing. Musk/Twitter deal also weighing on sentiment while investors position for the earnings where the focus will be on the forward guidance. This morning, Asia is negative. US Futures negative. USDZAR +17.13
JSE Top 40 IndexHas regained it's position above it's weekly & monthly pivot as well as it's 8 & 21-EMA. On any advance, the declining 50-day EMA could act as a resistance zone. See accompanying table as a reference for the key moving average levels.
TOP40Cash ALSI Head and shouldersA very bearish HS pattern has formed over the last couple of days on the ALSI,
The bulls have a lot of work to do to support this neckline to negate further downside.
