SA40
JSE Top 40 index: Thursday 02 may 2024
As per Tuesday’s pre-market above, the index traded higher followed by a failure to hold it’s highs. This resulted in what’s known as a ‘dark could cover’ candle formation. The price action is reflective of short term selling/distribution following the strong preceding upside move.
AFRICA40 trade ideas
Draining Trading Habits: The Pitfalls to Avoid for Market SuccesYou know that trading is a mental game.
And if you play it wrong, it can be very draining on the mind and the soul.
Your aim is to make trading effortless and not overstressing.
And to do this, you need to avoid making these draining trading habits.
That’s what we’ll cover in this piece.
Personalise Losses: The Emotional Pitfall
Ever felt like the market is out to get you?
Go look at any chart and you’ll see there were times where you would have won and would have lost.
It’s a common trap.
Losses are not personal attacks.
And winners are not personal appraisals.
They’re part and parcel of the trading game.
Remember, the market is as impersonal as it gets.
When you personalize losses, you cloud your judgment, making it harder to learn from mistakes.
Instead you need to:
Shift Your Perspective:
View losses as the trading costs of doing business.
And if you’re still learning, then you can see losses as tuition fees for your trading education.
Keep a Trading Journal: Document your trades and reflect on your overall track record.
This way you’ll see both losses and gains as part of the process.
Cling to Long-term Trades: The Hope Trap
Ah, the classic ‘hold and hope’ strategy.
It’s easy to fall in love with a trade.
It’s also easy to marry a trade or even an investment.
But as a trader, you must NOT get married to a trade.
See them as short term conquests where you take one – lose one win one. But know that the next one is on the way.
So, how do you break free?
Set Clear Exit Strategies:
Before your enter a trade, know your exit points for both profit and loss.
Practice Detachment:
Treat each trade as just another business transaction. Or like I said – Conquest.
Always checking your trades: The Anxiety Generator
Checking your trades every five minutes? ‘
This can turn into an obsession.
I must say. This is not a good for your stress levels and your trading performance.
This habit can turn trading into a nerve-wracking obsession.
So instead:
Set Alerts:
Use technology to your advantage. Set alerts for price movements.
Schedule Check-ins:
Limit how often you check your trades.
Discipline is key!
Overstress about trades: The Health Hazard
Stress is the silent killer in trading.
It not only harms your health but also impairs your decision-making abilities.
So, how do we keep our cool in the heat of the market?
Practice Mindfulness:
Meditation and mindfulness can work wonders for stress management. Maybe even self-hypnosis at night to manage your worries, stress and to compartmentalize them.
Physical Activity:
Regular exercise helps in reducing stress and improving focus. You’ll be surprised what a simple walk, exercise or even punching the old bag can do to calm your mind.
The complaint department: Trading’s Emotional Baggage
Complaining about trades is like carrying around a bag of emotional bricks.
It’s exhausting! It’s heavy on you! And it’s just plain unnecessary.
This habit breeds negativity and affects your mindset.
Focus on Solutions:
Instead of complaining, channel your energy into finding solutions through your track record and money management strategies.
Seek Constructive Feedback:
Engage with a trading community for support and advice.
FINAL WORDS:
Your job is to manage stress, worry and to make trading as effortless and as easy as possible.
This requires some physical and mental activities.
And not just once off. On an ongoing basis…
Let’s sum up the draining trading habits so you know what NOT to do.
Personalise Losses: The Emotional Pitfall
Cling to Long-term Trades: The Hope Trap
Always checking your trades: The Anxiety Generator
Overstress about trades: The Health Hazard
The complaint department: Trading’s Emotional Baggage
J200An effective way of assessing opportunity is via the JSE technical summary, which is published daily. In south africa, or on the jse, there is a lack of breadth data which has forced one to use alternative tools to measure breadth. Fortunately, the tools and methodologies have served clients well. Most recently, the market pulled back, which saw 21 shares in a high bearish momentum / approaching oversold phase. Simultaneously, the tactical trading guide highlighted several shares which offered an attractive reward-to-risk on the buy/long side. At the last close, there are zero shares which are in a high bearish momentum / approaching oversold phase. This reflects the massive improvement in breadth as well as the buy/long reward-to-risk which has been reduced as a result of the advance of a significant number of constituents. Today, the likelihood of higher levels remain, however traders need to be alert to the potential for the index to fail to hold it’s prior session highs. This would signal that the shortg term upside momentum is waning. Also note, the technical trend rating for the index is: high bullish momentum / approaching overbought.
BSD Bottom 15Candlestick Formations (Buyer/Seller Dominance) form part of technical price charts, which are are used by market participants to interpret current demand-supply dynamics, potential price trends as well as form decisions from these inferences. The tables below highlight the following: (1) The share name (2) the candle's 'change from open’ (over 1 session) i.e. from the start of the first hour of the trading day to the end of the last hour of the trading day'. This is used to determine the strength/weakness of the candle formation i.e. the greater (+) the percentage, the stronger the candle formation and the weaker (-) the percentage, the weaker the candle formation and (3) the share's short term technical rating i.e. which phase the share is in over a 7 day period.
BSD Top 15Candlestick Formations (Buyer/Seller Dominance) form part of technical price charts, which are are used by market participants to interpret current demand-supply dynamics, potential price trends as well as form decisions from these inferences. The tables below highlight the following: (1) The share name (2) the candle's 'change from open’ (over 1 session) i.e. from the start of the first hour of the trading day to the end of the last hour of the trading day'. This is used to determine the strength/weakness of the candle formation i.e. the greater (+) the percentage, the stronger the candle formation and the weaker (-) the percentage, the weaker the candle formation and (3) the share's short term technical rating i.e. which phase the share is in over a 7 day period.
5 Hidden Dangers of Trading with FOMOIn the previous TradingView article we spoke about FOMO (Fear of Missing Out).
And why it is really not necessary to deal with.
There is always the next trade coming.
There is always another opportunity coming your way.
There is always time to take the next one.
No we are going to unpack the five hidden dangers of trading with FOMO and how to sidestep them like a pro.
The Emotional Rollercoaster: Stress & Anxiety
Remember when I said.
“Trading is not just a financial challenge, but an emotional marathon”?
That’s never more true than when FOMO kicks in.
When you miss a trade, I know that you could feel stress and anxiety creeping in.
You feel like you’ve missed the most important trade of the year.
Well guess what, you might have missed one trade – but that’s it.
Success is based on 1,000s of trades not just one.
So the key is to remember this, so you eradicate the feelings of stress and anxiety next time you miss a trade.
The Short-Term Mirage: Losing Sight of Long-Term Goals
FOMO pushes you to focus on short-term gains.
Yes it’s important to try and spot high probability trades on a daily basis.
But, if you miss the trade – just go on and look for another.
There is bound to be more ready for you to execute or at least prepare for.
And while you’re at it, remember these are lessons to help you to be more punctual and vivid with your trades.
Following the Herd: The Danger of Sheep Behaviour
Ever heard the saying, “If your friend jumps off a bridge, would you do it too?”
That’s FOMO in a nutshell.
YOUR job is NOT to take a trade based on what your friend, foe, analyst or stranger tells you to buy or sell.
Your job is to either follow your own trading plan and strategy or your mentor’s.
Resist the urge to follow the flock and rather, trust your own research, strategy and instincts.
You’ll form Bad Habits
Each time you give in to FOMO and you take a trade for the sake of it, you’re not just making a bad trade.
You’re also cultivating bad habits for the future.
And once the bad habit forms, it then cultivates and becomes harder to escape from it.
Break the cycle by sticking to your disciplined trading routine. You’re better than that!
Ignored analysis
When you have that FOMO you want to then take impulse trades.
And all your hard work and analyses and discipline is thrown out of the window.
It’s like trying to navigate yourself without a map or GPS.
And you’re depending on your instincts or your “memory”.
It’s a very risky gamble and it could take a LOT longer to find your way.
Don’t go against the strategy. Don’t take trades for the sake of it. Don’t have FOMO because you missed one or two trades.
Just keep to your strategy and move on. It’s your trading compass for a reason.
FINAL WORDS 🚀🌟:
Trading with FOMO is like sailing in stormy seas – it’s risky, stressful, and often leads to nowhere good.
Let’s go other the 5 danger of trading FOMO
Stress & Anxiety: Keep emotions in check and stick to your trading plan.
Short-Term Focus: Remember your long-term goals and don’t get distracted by short-lived trends.
Sheep Behaviour: Be an independent thinker, not a follower.
Bad Habits: Avoid developing harmful trading habits by maintaining discipline.
Ignored Analysis: Trust in your research and analysis; they are your best tools for successful trading.
Buyer Seller DominanceTHESE TABLE SHOW WHERE BUYERS/SELLERS HAVE BEEN THE MOST DOMINANT.
Candlestick Formations (Buyer/Seller Dominance) form part of technical price charts, which are are used by market participants to interpret current demand-supply dynamics, potential price trends as well as form decisions from these inferences. The tables below highlight the following: (1) The share name (2) the candle's 'change from open’ (over 1 session) i.e. from the start of the first hour of the trading day to the end of the last hour of the trading day'. This is used to determine the strength/weakness of the candle formation i.e. the greater (+) the percentage, the stronger the candle formation and the weaker (-) the percentage, the weaker the candle formation and (3) the share's short term technical rating i.e. which phase the share is in over a 7 day period.
Buyer/Seller DominanceCandlestick Formations (Buyer/Seller Dominance) form part of technical price charts, which are are used by market participants to interpret current demand-supply dynamics, potential price trends as well as form decisions from these inferences. The tables below highlight the following: (1) The share name (2) the candle's 'change from open’ (over 1 session) i.e. from the start of the first hour of the trading day to the end of the last hour of the trading day'. This is used to determine the strength/weakness of the candle formation i.e. the greater (+) the percentage, the stronger the candle formation and the weaker (-) the percentage, the weaker the candle formation and (3) the share's short term technical rating i.e. which phase the share is in over a 7 day period.
Buyer/Seller Dominance - EOD Thursday 18 April 2024THESE TABLE SHOW WHERE BUYERS/SELLERS HAVE BEEN THE MOST DOMINANT.
Candlestick Formations (Buyer/Seller Dominance) form part of technical price charts, which are are used by market participants to interpret current demand-supply dynamics, potential price trends as well as form decisions from these inferences. The tables below highlight the following: (1) The share name (2) the candle's 'change from open’ (over 1 session) i.e. from the start of the first hour of the trading day to the end of the last hour of the trading day'. This is used to determine the strength/weakness of the candle formation i.e. the greater (+) the percentage, the stronger the candle formation and the weaker (-) the percentage, the weaker the candle formation and (3) the share's short term technical rating i.e. which phase the share is in over a 7 day period.
Buyer/Seller Dominance - EOD Monday 15 April 2024THESE TABLE SHOW WHERE BUYERS/SELLERS HAVE BEEN THE MOST DOMINANT.
Candlestick Formations (Buyer/Seller Dominance) form part of technical price charts, which are are used by market participants to interpret current demand-supply dynamics, potential price trends as well as form decisions from these inferences. The tables below highlight the following: (1) The share name (2) the candle's 'change from open’ (over 1 session) i.e. from the start of the first hour of the trading day to the end of the last hour of the trading day'. This is used to determine the strength/weakness of the candle formation i.e. the greater (+) the percentage, the stronger the candle formation and the weaker (-) the percentage, the weaker the candle formation and (3) the share's short term technical rating i.e. which phase the share is in over a 7 day period.
JSE Technical Summary: Overbought (EOD 15 April)This new layout/format has the additional feature of displaying the share's change from open (i.e. the change of share from the start of the session i.e. 9am to the close i.e. 5pm. This is a useful feature as it helps a trader ascertain the strength of buyers/sellers within the said regime.
SA40 index UncertaintyThe SA40 index shows a similar pattern to the USDZAR currency pair. This pattern is called a Symmetrical triangle, which usually means there's uncertainty. With national elections scheduled for 29 May 24', it seems traders and investors are being cautious. They're waiting to see how the elections might affect South Africa's economy. I'll provide more updates as we approach election time.
No FOMO when you trade - 5 ReasonsSo you missed a trade.
Or you are you often gripped by the fear of missing out (FOMO) in the trading world?
It’s a common feeling.
But let me tell you.
You might miss a train, but the next one is always on the way.
And the stock market will always be there for you to pump out more profit opportunities for you.
Today, I want you to not worry to much about FOMO. And I don’t want you to kick yourself and here’s why…
Impulsive Decisions: The Enemy of Rational Trading
Ever jumped into a trade just because it ‘felt right’?
It’s like grabbing a chocolate bar at the checkout – it’s tempting, but not always a good idea.
You need to get rid of the idea of wanting to impulse trade (trade for the sake of it).
Rather have your trading plan and stick to it by all means.
If you miss a trade – LOOK for the next one.
Not a low probability trade. Wait for the next high chance of success trade and you’ll be happy you did so.
Research: Your Secret Weapon
Trading without research is like driving with your eyes closed. You might get lucky and not crash, but it’s a risky gamble.
You need to put in the time to research and analyse the markets accordingly.
Understand the why behind your trades. Research is your crystal ball in the trading world.
Chasing the Market: A Fool’s Errand
Ever seen a stock skyrocket and felt like you’re missing the party?
You might feel the same with Bitcoin or a stock that has underperformed in a while.
The worse you can do, is try to chase the market.
If you missed the trade. Move on and find the next perfect trade that is linin up.
Patience is your ally.
Precision analysis is also the key.
Remember, markets move in cycles. Wait for your moment.
Big Risks: Big Rewards or Big Regrets?
It’s like betting all your chips on red.
It can pay off, but it’s a rollercoaster ride.
So you need to remember that risk and money management is key.
Balance optimism with realism.
Use stop-loss orders, adjust with trailing stop losses – get out with time stop losses.
And most importantly – Protect your capital – it’s your trading lifeline.
High Emotions: The Trader’s Kryptonite
The infamous emotional rollercoaster might make you take the wrong trades.
It will result in you making rash, quick and irresponsible decisions.
So try to keep emotions at bay, stay calm to trade.
Develop a mindset that is calm and collected. Remember, the market doesn’t care about your feelings.
Final words:
So you know that FOMO is another dangerous habit to develop as a trader.
Rather, say to yourself this mantra.
There is always another and better trade on the way, and I don’t have to catch every single trade that presents itself.
Let’s sum up the reasons why FOMO is dangerous.
Impulsive Decisions: The Enemy of Rational Trading
Research: Your Secret Weapon
Chasing the Market: A Fool’s Errand
Big Risks: Big Rewards or Big Regrets?
High Emotions: The Trader’s Kryptonite
JSE Technical Summary (Neutral): EOD Friday, 12 April 2024JSE Technical Summary (Neutral): EOD Friday, 12 April 2024
This new layout/format has the additional feature of displaying the share's change from open (i.e. the change of share from the start of the session i.e. 9am to the close i.e. 5pm. This is a useful feature as it helps a trader ascertain the strength of buyers/sellers within the said regime.
Buyer/Seller Dominance - EOD Wednesday 10 April 2024READING TIME: 1 MINUTE
THURSDAY, 11 APRIL 2024 | 06h30
THESE TABLE SHOW WHERE BUYERS/SELLERS HAVE BEEN THE MOST DOMINANT.
Candlestick Formations (Buyer/Seller Dominance) form part of technical price charts, which are are used by market participants to interpret current demand-supply dynamics, potential price trends as well as form decisions from these inferences. The tables below highlight the following: (1) The share name (2) the candle's 'change from open’ (over 1 session) i.e. from the start of the first hour of the trading day to the end of the last hour of the trading day'. This is used to determine the strength/weakness of the candle formation i.e. the greater (+) the percentage, the stronger the candle formation and the weaker (-) the percentage, the weaker the candle formation and (3) the share's short term technical rating i.e. which phase the share is in over a 7 day period.
Buyer/Seller DominanceData as of end of day - Tuesday 09 April 2024
Candle Formations (Buyer/Seller Dominance) form part of technical price charts, which are are used by market participants to interpret current demand-supply dynamics, potential price trends as well as form decisions from these inferences. The tables below highlight the following: (1) The share code (2) the candle's 'change from open’ (over 1 session) i.e. from the start of the first hour of the trading day to the end of the last hour of the trading day'. This is used to determine the strength/weakness of the candle formation i.e. the greater (+) the percentage, the stronger the candle formation and the weaker (-) the percentage, the weaker the candle formation and (3) the share's short term technical rating i.e. which phase the share is in over a 7 day period.
What LOSER Traders Say – 6 PhrasesI like to say…
Go where winners thrive and excuse givers die!
If you’ve ever uttered the following phrases below – I urge you to stop saying them from today.
And when you do utter these below phrases, you’re going to manifest losing, despair and hopelessness.
But it’s not your fault. It’s the conditions and echo of amateur traders – that other traders listen to.
I don’t believe for one second you want the loser mentality.
I believe you want to embrace the mindset of a true trading champion.
So let’s stop saying the below:
The Market is Wrong: A Blame Game for the Weak
Newsflash: the market isn’t out to get you.
Another newsflash, the market is NEVER wrong.
It goes up, down and sideways.
What you’re seeing in the charts is HISTORICAL.
So, what comes out in the future is untold but the truth.
There should be NO ego for ever saying – The market is wrong.
Take control of what the market is currently doing and what it has done and analyze your approach.
I Suck at Trading: The Pity Party Pitfall
Negative self-talk is the fastest route to trading mediocrity.
We are ALL bad at something when we start.
We continue to be bad at something if we don’t practice hard, work at it and have persistence.
If you’re convinced you suck at trading, it’s time to silence that inner critic.
Trading is no different from picking up another skill, vocation, endeavour and hobby.
Maybe I Should Just Give Up: The Quitters’ Anthem
Throwing in the towel is the easy way out.
In fact, I don’t believe traders lose.
They simply quit.
But winners persevere.
If thoughts of giving up dance in your mind, consider this:
Success often comes to those who refuse to quit.
Risk less.
Tweak your strategy.
Have your game plan with a solid back tested journal.
Reassess your goals.
Take a deep breath and remember that every setback is a setup for a comeback.
Damn, This is a Slow Process: Impatience, the Silent Killer
Trading success is not a sprint; it’s a marathon.
Complaining about the slow process won’t expedite your journey to financial triumph.
Whether you’re holding gold and waiting for the market to rally to new highs – It will come – you just need patience.
Winners understand that patience is a trader’s virtue.
So either you run the marathon, or give up trying knowing it’s going to be a long road.
I Can’t Do It
Your mind is a powerful tool.
And when there are challenges and doubts, you’ll find that you’ll keep telling yourself – you can’t do it.
Think of thoughts as tiny branches of a tree.
The more you think a certain way, the bigger the tree becomes.
And this will set yourself up for failure.
Random thought: This is why when a woman says I’m fat 1,000 times. No matter how thin she is, you can’t convince her that she is thin. Because of the tree she has build in her mind about her self-image.
Same with trading.
Stop saying negative thoughts.
Be kinder to yourself and who you are.
Winners replace “I can’t” with “I will.”
Winners replace Should, Would, Could with DO!
Cultivate a positive trading mindset, believe in your abilities, and watch how your confidence transforms your trading outcomes.
I’ll Start Tomorrow
Procrastination is the biggest thief of success.
Tomorrow is the favorite day of the loser.
If you constantly push your trading plans to the next day, you’re delaying your success.
You’re delaying profit opportunities.
You’re delaying your learning process.
Winners take action today.
Start now, stick to your plan, and relish the progress you’ll make.
Tomorrow’s victories are earned through today’s actions.
FINAL WORDS:
So from today, say and manifest a more optimistic and positive mindset.
Don’t say any more loser phrases.
And let’s cultivate a winning mentality and tree of positive branches to your mind.
Let’s sum up the phrases you must NOT say:
The Market is Wrong: A Blame Game for the Weak
I Suck at Trading: The Pity Party Pitfall
Maybe I Should Just Give Up: The Quitters’ Anthem
Damn, This is a Slow Process: Impatience, the Silent Killer
I Can’t Do It
I’ll Start Tomorrow