J200 Market Commentary: Global Equities Mixed On China Data and
Global equities ended in mixed territory on Friday as traders and investors digested fresh data out of China, the prospect of further rate hikes in the United States while assessing the potential for geopolitical tensions between the US and Saudi Arabia.
Volatility was subdued during the North American trading session as the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher by 0.26%, driven by a jump in Proctor and Gamble (+8.80%) which reported a stronger-than-expected increase in sales, buoyed by selected beauty products. Also leading the pack was American Express, which added 3.78% as the company exceeded analyst expectations for the third quarter. The S&P500 on the other hand finished slightly lower (-0.04%) while the NASDAQ Composite failed to shine on the day, losing 0.48%.
In Europe, stocks ended in mixed territory. For the day, the DAX closed lower by 0.31%, the FTSE100 higher by 0.32% while the CAC40 closed in the red by 0.63%. Although markets had traded lower in the morning session, comments from the EU's Moscovici lifted sentiment as he indicated that he wanted to reduce tensions with the Italian government over their budget plans.
On the JSE, the All Share Index closed slightly lower (-0.08%) as the market saw a somewhat even balance between buyers and sellers. The Top 40 closed lower by a similar level (-0.09%), as shares such as Kumba Iron Ore (-2.13%) and Bid Corp (-1.88%) gave index sellers a slight edge.
This morning in Asia, stocks kick off the new trading week on a strong note as the Shanghai Composite is higher by over 4% on the back of stimulus hopes, the Hang Seng by 2% while the Nikkei is up nearly a half of a percent. US and European Futures also trade in positive territory.
In terms of currencies, the Rand is back above the 14.30 level versus the US Dollar, while Gold trades near it's highest level in seven weeks.
JSE Major Sectors
Resources 10 -0.29%
Industrial 25 -0.13%
Financial 15 -0.17%
For the week ahead the economic calendar is filled with various local and international releases. On Wednesday at 9am, we have South African Consumer Confidence while the ECB Interest Rate Decision looms at 1:45pm on Thursday. In addition, the SA Medium Term Budget Policy Statement is due on Wednesday. You may view the economic calendar by clicking on this link: www.unum.co.za
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Company News
Oceana Group Limited - Updated Trading Statement
Shareholders are referred to the trading statement released on the Stock Exchange News Service (“SENS”) of the JSE Limited (“JSE”) on 12 September 2018 and are advised that basic earnings per share (“EPS”) for the year ended 30 September 2018 compared to the year ended 30 September 2017 (“comparative period”) are now expected to increase between 78% and 88%, to between 714.3 cents per share and 754.4 cents per share (30 September 2017: 401.3 cents per share).
Basic headline earnings per share (“HEPS”) for the year ended 30 September 2018 are now expected to increase between 80% and 90%, to between 705.4 cents per share and 744.6 cents per share (30 September 2017: 391.9 cents per share) compared to the comparative period.
The financial information on which this trading statement is based has not been reviewed and/or reported on by the Company`s auditors.
The Company expects its results for the year ended 30 September 2018 to be released on the SENS on or about Thursday, 15 November 2018.
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USDZAR - Technical Analysis
On Wednesday last week we saw the price has rebound off the neckline of a head and shoulder formation, maintaining the upward trend line that has been in place since 27 March 2018. Both the 50 and 100-day moving averages continue to show an upward bias while the medium term 20-day moving average is in neutral territory. The head and shoulder is negated above the highest point of the right shoulder, currently R15.06 while a break and close below the upward trend line would signal the potential for a medium term change in trend.
AFRICA40 trade ideas
JSE Wyckoff Wave AnalysisIn this analysis I have considered a Wyckoff Wave (WWave) for the JSE and its associated volume.The Stock Market Institute (SMI) describes an propriety indicator the "SMI Wyckoff Wave" for US Stocks. This is my attempt to make a Wyckoff Wave for the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE).
The Code for this JSE Wyckoff Wave and associated Volume for this wave is linked below.
The Wave presents a normalized price for the 10 selected stocks (An Index for the 10 stocks). The theory is to select stocks that are widely held, market leaders, actively traded and participate in important market moves. This is only my attempt to select 10 stocks and a different selection can be made.
I am not certain how SMI determine their weightings but what I have done it to equalize the Rand value of the stock volume so that moves are of equal magnitude. The then provides a view of the overall condition of the market and volume flow in the market. I have used the September 2018 price to normalize the stock price for the 10 selected stocks based. The stocks and weightings can be changed periodically depending on the performance and leadership.
The stocks and their weightings are:
"JSE:BTI"/0.79
"JSE:SHP"/2.87
"JSE:NPN"/0.18
"JSE:AGL"/1.96
"JSE:SOL"/1.0
"JSE:CFR"/4.42
"JSE:MND"/1.40
"JSE:MTN"/7.63
"JSE:SLM"/7.29
"JSE:FSR"/8.25
Analyzing the wave I make the following conclusions:
- The WWave has been trading in a upward channel since the beginning of 2016.
- The WWave found resistance with a Buying Climax (BC) after a throw over of the overbought line.
- After the BC the WWave has been very week with strong volume on the down moves (especially at Futures Closeouts) and low volume on rallies.
- The market has been in a range but only finding support below the Automatic Rally (AR).
- However, the volumes have declined with each subsequent down wave back to support and with the September Closeout a rally and not decline was seen. Although, the rally was week with effort but little response.
- The WWave is now at the oversold line of the upward stride.
We need to watch to see if there is going to be a change of character with increased volume on rallies or the support line of the range and channel is broken. At this key junction next week will be key to see if demand or supply triumphs.
Calculating a negative open on the J200Calculating the J200 to open in the red this morning -183 points.
US markets closed lower on Friday.
Asian markets trading lower this morning.
Tencent down -0.99% currently.
ZAR slightly weaker this morning (more downside to come)
S&P futures flat.
UK futures pointing lower.
Traders should look to profit on arbitrage between the ALSI open and the J200 open call.
Unum Morning callCalculating a negative open on the J200 -215 points.
ZAR weaker this morning.
US markets ended lower yesterday.
Asian markets trading lower this morning.
FTSE futures lower this morning.
Traders should look to profit form arbitrage opportunities between the the ALSI open and the J200.
JSE Sector Comparison End of SeptemberThe JSE Top 40 has been ranging but finding some support at the breakout level of the previous trading range. Looking at the comparison of the three main sectors in the JSE since April we can evaluate recent relative strength. The Resources sector has been strong and even looking at resent lows on 12 September it has remained the strongest of the sectors. Financials have strengthened some since end of June and is also remaining above the September 12 lows. Industrials on the other hand had been tracking the Top 40 performance but since 12 September has been very week falling strongly even as the other sectors hold above the low. If the Top 40 is to break support Industrials would be the sector to look at to go short but if we see a bounce Financials and Resources would be the go to sectors.
Calculating a negative open on the J200Calculating the J200 to open down -198 points.
Tencent down -1.8%
US & FTSE futures pointing lower
US markets ended lower yesterday
Asian markets trading mostly lower this morning
Traders should look to profit arbitrage between the ALSI open and the Unum J200 open call
Unum Market Commentary: Equities Lower As Fed Hikes; Dollar Gain
On Wednesday all eyes were on the US Federal Reserve as market participants awaited the commentary following the near-certain 25 basis point hike which saw the lending rate increase from 2.00% to 2.25%. General commentary from the committee highlighted the most known factors including: (1) the health of the US economy (2) low unemployment (3) rising wages and (4) low and stable inflation. Also stated by Chairman Powell was that a gradual return to policy normalization will help to sustain the strong economy for the long-run benefit of all Americans. The initial reaction saw the US Dollar weaken, which saw a print of 1.1797 versus the Euro which was followed by strength that saw a print below 1.1750 post the US market close. Versus the South African Rand, the greenback tested a low of 14.08, settling to 14.15 by 6:30am this morning. In the equities space, US stocks finished lower, with the Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq 100 losing 0.40%, 0.33% and 0.21% respectively while the Russell 2000, the index which possibly better reflects the domestic US economy, took the biggest hit, losing 1.02% for the session. This morning Asian stocks are tracking Wall Street's losses with the Nikkei 225 down by 0.37%, the Hang Seng lower by 0.37% while the Shanghai Composite is down by 0.39%.
GDP Projected Changes as per the FOMC
JSE Major Sectors
Resources 10 -1.89%
Industrial 25 -0.17%
Financial 15 -0.01%
Below is a great chart from Statista which highlighted where tourists have been spending the most amount of money. At the top of the list was the US which received 75m inbound arrivals and where inbound expenditure was around $210bn.
The Walt Disney Company - A Beneficiary of Tourism - View by Lester Davids
One share that may be a beneficiary of increased tourist travel to and spending in the United States is the Walt Disney Company with their world-class theme-park entertainment which has a long and profitable operating history. The share has been a laggard over the last few years as it's sports network, ESPN, has lost subscribers. We will however in future see the company launch it's own streaming service which could benefit the share. The earnings multiple (PE) is undemanding and technically (as per the weekly chart) we are seeing a breakout. Will this be a change in long term trend?
Disney Weekly Chart
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In currencies, the South African Rand trades as follows:
USDZAR +0.15% to 14.15
GBPZAR +0.01% to 18.61
EURZAR +0.23% to 16.63
Gold trades at $1202
Platinum at $830
Brent Crude Oil at $81.56
International Markets
This morning, Asian equities are as follows:
Nikkei 225 (-0.37%)
Hang Seng (-0.37%)
Shanghai Composite (-0.39%)
Latam Markets closed as follows:
Merval 25 (-0.32%)
Bovespa (+0.03%)
INMEX (-0.11%)
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Company News
Capitec Bank Holdings Limited - Unaudited Financial Results For The 6 Months Ended 31 August 2018
Salient Features
Unaudited financial results for the 6 months ended 31 August 2018
+20% to 2 128 cents Headline earnings per share
+20% to R2.461 billion Headline earnings
+20% to 630 cents Interim dividend per share
27% Return on equity
10.5m Active clients
25% Transaction volume growth
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Aus miners:
BHP Billiton (+0.20%)
Rio Tinto (-0.67%)
S32 (+0.00%)
FANGs
Facebook (+1.24%)
Amazon (+0.02%)
Netflix (+2.29%)
Google (+0.01%)
FTSE Miners:
Anglo American plc (-1.57%)
BHP Billiton plc (-2.00%)
Glencore plc (-1.02%)
Alibaba Holdings (+0.70%)
Tencent Holdings (+2.12%)
Share Link: bit.ly/JoinUnum
________________________________________
The Unum Capital Trading Desk
Feel free to contact the Unum trading desk for any trading related queries: 011 384 2929
Unum Market Commentary: JSE Falls Financials See Selling Pressur
On Tuesday the JSE came under pressure as it caught up with a softer global sentiment driven by traders expecting economic data, USD-China trade negotiations as well as political maneuverings out of Washington. For the day, the All Share Index was lower by 0.49% while the Top 40 declined by 0.64%. Leading the declining were financials, with Standard Bank and Nedbank which were lower by 3.99% and 3.14% respectively while Bidvest (-3.76%) also added to the losses. In the winning lane, Sasol was boosted by a rising oil price, adding 3.87% for the session while Kumba Iron Ore attracted buying interest, adding 3.88% for the session. In Europe, stock were mostly higher with the FTSE 100 adding 0.62% on the day. US Stocks were mixed, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500 lower by 0.26% and 0.13% while the Nasdaq was higher by 0.18%. This morning Asian equities are higher with the Hang Seng leading the way with a 1.6% gain.
JSE Major Sectors
Resources 10 -0.05%
Industrial 25 +0.31%
Financial 15 +0.34%
Two ideas (by Lester Davids) that had mixed results recently were a short/sell on the DAX and a Buy/Long on the FTSE100. Here's how that played out:
#1. DAX Futures
- Stop-loss breached
#2. FTSE 100 Futures
While consolidating, the price slipped below the stop-loss level before moving in the anticipated direction.
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Platinum's Pause - Technical View by Lester Davids
Platinum has had a solid recovery from the lows of $756 just over one month ago. The price is now trading in line with the downward trend line going back to the year-to-date peak of $1033 as well as near the horizontal resistance that has been in place over the last 13 weeks. While the price appears to be bottoming over the medium term, the short term dircetion may see a pause as a short term recovery in the US Dollar curbs further upside.
Platinum Daily Chart
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In currencies, the South African Rand trades as follows:
USDZAR +0.10% to 14.36
GBPZAR +0.09% to 18.93
EURZAR +0.08% to 16.90
Gold trades at $1205
Platinum at $828
Brent Crude Oil at $81.24
International Markets
This morning, Asian equities are as follows:
Nikkei 225 (+0.24%)
Hang Seng (-0.03%)
Shanghai Composite (-0.12%)
Latam Markets closed as follows:
Merval 25 (+2.68%)
Bovespa (+0.83%)
INMEX (+0.37%)
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Company News
Standard Bank Group - Withdrawal of Cautionary
Shareholders of Standard Bank Group (“Shareholders”) are referred to the cautionary announcement dated 30 August 2018, and the subsequent update announcement dated 6 September 2018, in terms of which Shareholders were advised that the Central Bank of Nigeria (“CBN”) had imposed a penalty on Stanbic IBTC Bank PLC (“Stanbic IBTC Bank” or “the Bank”) relating to the remittance of foreign exchange on behalf of MTN Nigeria Communications Limited (“MTN Nigeria”) and requested that the funds remitted by the Bank on behalf of MTN Nigeria be refunded to the CBN.
Shareholders are hereby notified that the CBN has written to advise the Bank that it will examine new submissions and documentations made by the Bank, and where justified, it will review its earlier decision on the penalty it imposed on the Bank. The Bank had communicated that it believed that it had acted properly in an agency capacity.
Furthermore, the CBN has confirmed that the Bank will not be debited for USD2.632 billion which the CBN had previously suggested that the Bank should also be prepared to refund.
The Bank will continue its engagements with the CBN.
As the financial impact of the penalties levied by the CBN on the Bank has been published and sufficient clarity has now been provided by the CBN regarding the Bank’s relationship to the refund sought by the CBN, caution is no longer required to be exercised by Shareholders when dealing in their Standard Bank Group securities.
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Aus miners:
BHP Billiton (+1.17%)
Rio Tinto (+1.13%)
S32 (+0.51%)
FANGs
Facebook (-0.30%)
Amazon (+2.08%)
Netflix (-0.05%)
Google (+1.21%)
FTSE Miners:
Anglo American plc (+0.96%)
BHP Billiton plc (+1.47%)
Glencore plc (+3.48%)
Alibaba Holdings (+0.67%)
Tencent Holdings (+0.79%)
Share Link: bit.ly/JoinUnum
________________________________________
The Unum Capital Trading Desk
Please feel free to contact the Unum trading desk : 011 384 29 29
Calculating a negative open on the J200 -249 points.Based on my calculations I derive a negative open on the J200 -249 points.
The UK market finished weaker yesterday.
US markets ended mostly lower yesterday.
Tencent trading down -2% currently.
S&P and FTSE futures pointing lower.
Traders should look to profit from arbitrage opportunities between the ALSI open and the J200 open based on our caculations.
Unum Market Commentary: Global Equities Mixed As Traders Assess
Global equities got off to a weaker start this week as traders assessed the impact of further tariffs as well as a slew of economic data and potentially market-moving events for the week ahead. This morning we saw the release of the Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes while tomorrow the US Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Announcement is made known where traders largely expect the committee to raise the lending rate by 25bps. On Thursday, Euro-Area business confidence figures is expected to be released while US Personal Spending is due on Friday at 8:30am New York time. In Europe, equities were weaker, with the DAX, FTSE100 and CAC40 all lower by 0.64%, 0.42% and 0.33% respectively while major indices in the US were mostly lower between 0.35% and 0.70% on average while the Nasdaq managed to get back into the green with a 0.08% gain. This morning in Asia, markets are flat to down, with the Hang Seng being the biggest drag (-1.62%).
JSE Major Sectors
Resources 10 +0.30%
Industrial 25 +0.99%
Financial 15 +2.54%
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US Dollar Futures (DXY) - Technical View by Lester Davids
The price has found support 93.42, a level that has held over the past four months. The medium term setup is bearish, with a head and shoulder top developing while the near term price action signals higher levels as the right shoulder of the technical formation develops.
US Dollar Index Futures (Daily Chart)
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In currencies, the South African Rand trades as follows:
USDZAR -0.03% to 14.37
GBPZAR -0.12% to 18.83
EURZAR -0.07% to 16.87
Gold trades at $1202
Platinum at $832
Brent Crude Oil at $80.69
International Markets
This morning, Asian equities are as follows:
Nikkei 225 (+0.07%)
Hang Seng (-1.62%)
Shanghai Composite (-0.83%)
Latam Markets closed as follows:
Merval 25 (-3.39%)
Bovespa (-1.84%)
INMEX (-0.14%)
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Company News
ArcelorMittal South Africa Limited - Appointment Of Chief Financial Officer And Executive Director
In compliance with paragraph 3.59(a) of the Listings Requirements of the JSE Limited, shareholders are advised that after following an appropriate recruitment process.
The Board of Directors (Board) has approved the appointment of Mr Avinash Desmond Maharaj (Desmond) as Chief Financial Officer (CFO) and Executive Director of the Board with effect from 1 October 2018.
Mr Maharaj has a Master’s degree in Finance and is a qualified Chartered Accountant registered with the South African Institute of Chartered Accountants. He has a 22-year career with 17 years at a senior executive level in Finance and General Management level.
Mr Gerhard van Zyl, who acted as Acting CFO pending the appointment of a permanent CFO, will accordingly step down as Acting CFO.
The Board congratulates Mr Maharaj on his appointment and looks forward to his contribution.
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Amazon Inc - The Most Important Stock In The World? - Technical View by Lester Davids
The contribution of technology behemoth Amazon Inc to US stock market performance cannot be understated. From being the second company (behind Apple) to reach 1 trillion US Dollars in market value and being a feature across feature across many active and passive funds, the share has become nearly a proxy for US stock market resilience. Today I'm having a brief look at the short term technical position for the share and how it may influence near term performance for US Stocks.
The price has performed strongly year-to-date, appreciating by 64%. Recently the share has breached it's upward trend line that has been in place since October 2017 and has also breached support on it's RSI technical indicator which is starting to turn lower and trending toward the short term bearish zone.
When Amazon is overlayed versus the S&P 500 we see the a strong correlation in performance over the short term.
Bottom Line: With the upward trend line having been breached and the RSI pointing toward the bearish "zone", Amazon under-performance may filter through to the broader S&P 500 index.
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Aus miners:
BHP Billiton (+0.86%)
Rio Tinto (+0.97%)
S32 (+1.56%)
FANGs
Facebook (+1.52%)
Amazon (+1.01%)
Netflix (+2.33%)
Google (+0.63%)
FTSE Miners:
Anglo American plc (-1.40%)
BHP Billiton plc (-0.41%)
Glencore plc (-2.02%)
Alibaba Holdings (+0.89%)
Tencent Holdings (-1.97%)
Share Link: bit.ly/JoinUnum
________________________________________
The Unum Capital Trading Desk
Please feel free to contact the Unum Trading desk for any trading related queries :
Tel: 011 384 2929
Unum Market Commentary: JSE Stable As Rand Gains On Inflation Da
Wednesday saw the release of a key piece of SA economic data which helped the Rand gain versus the major currencies. Inflation for the month of August (YoY) came in at 4.9% versus a prior reading of 5.1% and consensus forecast of 5.2%. This saw the Rand gain by approximately 27 cents versus the US Dollar, closing the session just above the R14.60 level from a Tuesday session close of R14.90. A weaker US Dollar also saw metals strong on the day which in turn helped Anglo American plc add 4.11% for the session, while Mr Price and Sanlam added 3.86% and 3.52% respectively. On the downside, Aspen continued to be under significant selling pressure, shedding nearly 8%. In Europe, markets remained buoyant with the DAX, FTSE and CAC40 adding 0.50%, 0.42% and 0.56% respectively. Overnight US stocks closed as follows: Dow Jones (+0.61%), S&P500 (+0.13%), Nasdaq (-0.08%). This morning in Asia, equities are flat to down.
REMINDER: Today at 3:00pm the South African Reserve Bank will announce it's interest rate decision.
JSE Major Sectors
Resources 10 +1.27%
Industrial 25 -0.99%
Financial 15 +1.41%
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Unum Capital Economic Calendar: www.unum.co.za
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In currencies, the South African Rand trades as follows:
USDZAR -0.23% to 14.66
GBPZAR +0.16% to 19.28
EURZAR +0.15% to 17.12
Gold trades at $1210
Platinum at $825
Brent Crude Oil at $79.64
International Markets
This morning, Asian equities are as follows:
Nikkei 225 (+0.24%)
Hang Seng (-0.03%)
Shanghai Composite (-0.12%)
Latam Markets closed as follows:
Merval 25 (+3.15%)
Bovespa (-0.19%)
INMEX (-0.20%)
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Company News
Life Healthcare Group Holdings Limited - Disposal of interest in Max Healthcare Institute Limited and withdrawal of cautionary announcement
Further to the cautionary announcement released on the Stock Exchange News Service on 27 August 2018, shareholders are advised that the Company through its wholly owned subsidiary, Life Healthcare International Proprietary Limited, has accepted an offer from the global investment firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. LP. for and on behalf of funds and/or investment vehicles managed by it together with its affiliates ("the Purchaser") to acquire its 49.7% stake in Max Healthcare Institute Limited ("Max Healthcare") ("the Transaction"). The Purchaser may complete the transaction through its portfolio company, Radiant Life Care Private Limited.
2. THE TRANSACTION
Rationale
Exiting its joint shareholding investment in Max Healthcare will further enable Life Healthcare to focus on its core operations in South Africa, UK, Poland and Western Europe. The Company will initially use the net disposal proceeds to settle debt as well as to invest in growth opportunities in its core markets.
Terms of the Transaction
Subject to the terms and conditions to be mutually agreed in a share purchase agreement, the Purchaser will acquire 266,997,937 equity shares held by Life Healthcare International Proprietary Limited, which represents 49.7% of the share capital of Max Healthcare, at Rupees 80 per share for approximately R4.3 billion before costs and the impact of exchange rate fluctuations (the R4.3 billion is an indicative amount based on the rate of exchange as at 19 September 2018, R1 = Rupees4.93). The final amount will be determined based on the rate of exchange when the transaction is finalised. The transaction is currently expected to be finalised and become effective before the end of December 2018.
The business of Max Healthcare
Max Healthcare is a leading hospital group in India. The business operates state of the art hospitals in Delhi-NCR, Punjab and Uttarakhand. Life Healthcare acquired an initial stake of 26% in Max Healthcare in 2012 and subsequently increased its stake to 46.25% in 2014. Following the acquisition of half of the International Finance Corporation’s interest in 2017, Life Healthcare increased its stake in Max Healthcare to 49.7%.
The consideration
The total consideration for Life Healthcare’s stake in Max Healthcare will be settled in cash. The Company will initially utilise the net proceeds (less estimated costs and taxes) from the disposal to settle debt as well as to invest in growth opportunities in the Company’s core markets.
Financial effects of the Transaction
Max Healthcare is equity accounted for in the published unaudited interim Group results. The investment’s book value as at 31 March 2018 amounted to R2.893 billion (30 September 2017: R2.960 billion). The net loss after tax for the period ended 31 March 2018 was R67 million (30 September 2017: R27 million).
3. CONDITIONS
The implementation of the Transaction is subject to the fulfillment of the following:
- the negotiation and entry into a mutually agreed share purchase agreement to be approved by the Boards of the Company and the Purchaser;
- the satisfaction of the conditions to be set out in the share purchase agreement including necessary regulatory and other approvals required in India being obtained;
- the waiver by Max India of its pre-emptive rights under the existing shareholders’ agreement; and
- finalisation of Warranty & Indemnity Insurance on terms acceptable to the Purchaser.
4. WITHDRAWAL OF CAUTIONARY ANNOUNCEMENT
Given that the material terms of the Transaction are contained in this announcement; caution is no longer required to be exercised by shareholders when dealing in their Life Healthcare shares.
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Aus miners:
BHP Billiton (+1.42%)
Rio Tinto (+3.13%)
S32 (-1.64%)
FANGs
Facebook (+1.72%)
Amazon (-0.75%)
Netflix (-0.19%)
Google (+0.61%)
FTSE Miners:
Anglo American plc (+5.05%)
BHP Billiton plc (+3.17%)
Glencore plc (+3.53%)
Alibaba Holdings (+3.82%)
Tencent Holdings (+0.50%)
Share Link: bit.ly/JoinUnum
________________________________________
The Unum Capital Trading Desk
Please contact the Unum Trading desk for any trading related queries
Tel: 011 384 2929
ALSI sep18 FCO trading IdeaThe ALSI top40 Sep-18 futures contract will roll over to its dec-18 expiry tomorrow 20th sep.
Trading Idea right now is that the 49800 technical 60min support level will attract buying for the market to get option hedgers that took trades short below 5000 to buy back above 50000
by FCO closing price
I have initiated a long position at 49600 on September 17th and target for the long trade is the FCO closing price. a stop loss below 49200 will be exercised as well.
Unum Market Commentary: Equities Stable As Traders Shrug Off
Unum Market Commentary: Equities Stable As Traders Shrug Off Trade Woes; Copper Rebounds
On Tuesday, traders appeared to ignore the threat of a trade war, instead focusing on a softer US Dollar to drive sentiment throughout the session which saw equities largely higher on the day. On the JSE, the All Share Index added 0.15% while the Top 40 managed to stay in the green by 0.05%. On the leader-board, Anglo American Platinum added 4.70% while MTN recovered some of it's recent losses to add 4.52%. On the downside, Pepkor and Tiger Brands lost 2.94% and 2.84% respectively. In Europe, it was a mixed day with the DAX and CAC 40 adding 0.51% and 0.28% respectively while the FTSE100 lost 0.03%. After a rocky start to the week, equities in the US bounced back immediately with the major indices all higher for the session. This morning in Asia, markets are up strongly with the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite all gaining over 1%.
In the commodities space, Copper is starting to show signs of recovery, having rebounded sharply during yesterday's session, while Brent Crude Oil hold above the $79 level.
JSE Major Sectors
Resources 10 +0.25%
Industrial 25 -0.26%
Financial 15 +0.75%
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Unum Capital Economic Calendar: www.unum.co.za
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In currencies, the South African Rand trades as follows:
USDZAR -0.32% to 14.90
GBPZAR -0.29% to 19.60
EURZAR -0.20% to 17.39
Gold trades at $1208
Platinum at $820
Brent Crude Oil at $79.06
International Markets
This morning, Asian equities are as follows:
Nikkei 225 (+1.19%)
Hang Seng (+1.47%)
Shanghai Composite (+1.34%)
Latam Markets closed as follows:
Merval 25 (+3.05%)
Bovespa (+1.99%)
INMEX (+0.72%)
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Company News
Phumelela Gaming & Leisure Limited - Resignation of Chief Executive Officer
In compliance with paragraph 3.59 of the Listings Requirements of the JSE Limited, the board of directors of Phumelela Gaming and Leisure Limited ("the Board") hereby notifies its shareholders that Mr Rian du Plessis has tendered his resignation as CEO of Phumelela Gaming and Leisure Limited (“the Company”) for personal reasons, effective from 17 September 2018. Rian has committed to assist his successor until the end of March 2019 to ensure a smooth transition.
Rian has full confidence in the Company’s executive management team, underlying business fundamentals and strategic direction and has undertaken not to dispose of any Phumelela shares held directly or indirectly by him, his family or otherwise in the foreseeable future.
The Board and management team would like to thank Rian for his valued service and contribution to the Company over the past ten years. He led the development of a sophisticated business with multiple revenue streams and has formed a management team supporting long term stability and growth. The Board wishes Rian every success in his future endeavours.
The Board is pleased to advise that Mr John Stuart, the current Executive Director: International Operations, has been appointed to fulfil the role as CEO.
With more than 39 years of experience in the horse racing and gaming industry, the Board welcomes John’s increased participation in the business and looks forward to his ongoing contribution.
The Company’s financial results announcement scheduled for 5 October 2018 will be delivered by the new CEO.
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Aus miners:
BHP Billiton (+2.99%)
Rio Tinto (+2.99%)
S32 (+1.97%)
FANGs
Facebook (-0.17%)
Amazon (+1.73%)
Netflix (+4.94%)
Google (+0.63%)
FTSE Miners:
Anglo American plc (+1.91%)
BHP Billiton plc (+1.08%)
Glencore plc (+2.78%)
Alibaba Holdings (-1.41%)
Tencent Holdings (+1.70%)
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The Unum Capital Trading Desk
For any trading related queries or advice, please contact the Unum trading desk
Tel: 011 384 2929
Unum Market Commentary: Global Equities Decline In Risk-Off
It was a risk-off start to the trading week for global equities as new rounds of jabs between the United States and China regarding trade saw Asian equities attract sellers early in the session, with the the major Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite Indices losing over 1% each while the Nikki bucked the trend, adding 1.19%. In Europe, markets continued with the bearish undertone as the DAX lost 0.23%, lead by Linde while the FTSE 100 Index shed a marginal 0.03% weighed down by Hikma Pharmaceuticals. On the local bourse, the All Share Index was lower by 0.50% while the Top 40 Index shed 0.48%, lead lower by Sanlam (-3.41%) and RMIH (-3.25%) while Kumba Iron Ore saw a gain of 1.60%. Overnight, US equities were sharply lower, with the NASDAQ Composite declining by 1.43% while this morning Asian Equities are mixed.
JSE Major Sectors
Resources 10 +0.37%
Industrial 25 -0.43%
Financial 15 -1.74%
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Unum Capital Economic Calendar: www.unum.co.za
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In currencies, the South African Rand trades as follows:
USDZAR +0.28% to 14.94
GBPZAR +0.28% to 19.65
EURZAR +0.14% to 17.46
Gold trades at $1202
Platinum at $800
Brent Crude Oil at $77.56
International Markets
This morning, Asian equities are as follows:
Nikkei 225 (+1.63%)
Hang Seng (-0.65%)
Shanghai Composite (+0.25%)
Latam Markets closed as follows:
Merval 25 (+3.25%)
Bovespa (+1.80%)
INMEX (-0.46%)
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Company News
Naspers Limited - Listing and Unbundling of Video Entertainment Business as Multichoice Group on the JSE
Naspers today announced its intention to list its Video Entertainment business separately on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) and simultaneously to unbundle the shares in this business to its shareholders. The new company will be named MultiChoice Group Ltd ("MultiChoice Group") and will include MultiChoice South Africa Holdings (Pty) Ltd (and its subsidiaries, associates and/or affiliates), MultiChoice Africa Holdings B.V. (and its subsidiaries, associates and/or affiliates), MultiChoice Botswana (Pty) Ltd, MultiChoice Namibia (Pty) Ltd, NMS Insurance Services SA Ltd, (the aforesaid entities collectively "MultiChoice"), the African division of Showmax B.V. (and its subsidiaries, associates and/or affiliates), Irdeto Holdings B.V. (and its subsidiaries, associates and/or affiliates) and Irdeto South Africa (Pty) Ltd (collectively "Irdeto").
This marks a significant step for the Naspers Group as it continues its evolution into a global consumer internet company. Listing MultiChoice Group via an unbundling is expected to unlock value for Naspers shareholders and at the same time create an empowered, top 40 JSE-listed African entertainment company.
(Extract from Stock Exchange News Services)
Rhodes Foods Group - Trading update and trading statement for the year ending 30 September 2018
Trading update
The increasingly challenging local economic environment and the prolonged drought in the Western Cape have adversely impacted the group’s regional and international performance.
Regional segment (South Africa and the rest of Africa) Trading conditions showed a marked deterioration in the second half of the group’s financial year as declining consumer disposable income resulted in a sharp slowdown in sales growth, in line with the pressure being experienced in the food retail sector.
Despite the tougher trading environment, market shares have been maintained or grown.
- The pie category has proven to be resilient in the current consumer slowdown. However, the turnaround in Ma Baker has been slower than expected and the business is anticipated to report a small loss for the full year.
- Dry foods (formerly Pakco) continues to perform well and gain momentum from the relaunch of its brand portfolio earlier in the year.
- Escalating meat prices have contributed to margin dilution in Bull Brand.
- Fruit juices have shown good growth in an intensely competitive environment.
Trading in the sub-Saharan Africa markets remains tough owing to poor economic conditions and liquidity constraints in some major markets.
The regional operating margin for the second half is anticipated to be at a similar level to the 7.8% reported for the first half, although the margin for the first six months was net of certain once-off costs.
International segment International revenue will show an increase for the year due to improving export volumes. Industrial puree and concentrate pricing has remained weak and margins continued to be impacted by increased canned fruit product costs as a result of the drought in the Western Cape over the last two seasons.
The higher canned fruit costs could not be recovered through price increases and this together with the currency impact has had a material impact on profitability which will contribute to the international segment posting a loss for the year.
Trading statement
In addition to the trading performance, the group’s earnings will be adversely impacted by increased interest payments which are expected to be between R26 million and R28 million higher than the previous year. This relates mainly to the funding for the acquisition of Ma Baker, the increased capital investment programme and lower levels of cash generated as a result of the lower profit over the past year.
Earnings have benefited by R11 million from an income tax rebate relating to capital projects in the current year and the release of an over-provision for prior years.
As a result of these factors outlined above, management expects headline earnings for the year ending 30 September 2018 to be between 28% and 38% lower than the R237.0 million reported for the previous year.
Earnings per share measures have been impacted by the 8.1 million or 3.3% increase in the weighted average number of shares in issue over the prior year relating to the issue of shares for the capital raise and the acquisition of Pakco in the previous year.
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Aus miners:
BHP Billiton (-1.11%)
Rio Tinto (-0.32%)
S32 (-0.13%)
FANGs
Facebook (-1.17%)
Amazon (-3.15%)
Netflix (-3.90%)
Google (-1.55%)
FTSE Miners:
Anglo American plc (+0.09%)
BHP Billiton plc (+0.17%)
Glencore plc (-0.40%)
Alibaba Holdings (-3.62%)
Tencent Holdings (-2.44%)
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Please contact the Unum trading desk for any trading related queries : 011 384 29 29
Unum Market Commentary: JSE Recovers On Bargain Hunting + Potent
Despite being down on the week, South African equity markets managed to stage a short term recovery to bounce back from it's mid-week week lows as bargain hunters sought the opportunity to accumulate. Another factor that drove the recovery was a rebound in Chinese markets following a prolonged sell-off. For the session, the All-Share Index added 0.74% while the Top 40 was higher by 0.90%. Leading the way higher was banking group Investec that announced a demerger of it's Asset Management business. This saw the stock higher by 9.3% on the day as investors welcomed the development. Also in the winning lane was South 32 and Sappi that added 4.36% and 3.84% respectively. On the downside, the selling pressure continued for Aspen Pharmacare (-17%) while UK property group Hammerson lost 1.45%. In Europe, markets were in the green as the DAX, FTSE 100 and CAC 40 added 0.57%, 0.31% and 0.46% respectively. This morning, Asian equities start the week off on the back foot, with the Hang and Seng and Shanghai Composite down over 1% however the Nikkei has bucked the trend with a 1.1% gain.
JSE Major Sectors
Resources 10 +1.84%
Industrial 25 +0.36%
Financial 15 +0.96%
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For the week ahead, there is plenty of data on the local economic calendar with SA Consumer Confidence for the third quarter being the first local release of the week tomorrow at 9am. For the rest of the week's local and international data, you may view the Unum Capital Economic Calendar here: www.unum.co.za
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In currencies, the South African Rand trades as follows:
USDZAR +0.28% to 14.94
GBPZAR +0.20% to 19.54
EURZAR +0.18% to 17.38
Gold trades at $1199
Platinum at $793
Brent Crude Oil at $77.97
International Markets
This morning, Asian equities are as follows:
Nikkei 225 (+1.19%)
Hang Seng (-1.69%)
Shanghai Composite (-1.03%)
Latam Markets closed as follows:
Merval 25 (-0.46%)
Bovespa (+1.76%)
INMEX (+0.56%)
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Company News
Investec Limited - Investec proposed demerger and listing of Investec Asset Management business
Overview
Following the Group’s announcement on management succession made in February 2018, the Joint Chief Executive Officer (“CEO”) Designates, Fani Titi and Hendrik du Toit, have been working closely with the Investec Board (“Board”) and current members of the Group executive (Stephen Koseff, Bernard Kantor and Glynn Burger) in order to ensure a smooth transition of leadership. In conjunction with this process, the Board together with the executive directors, have conducted a strategic review of the Group to ensure that it is positioned to enhance the long-term interests of shareholders, clients and employees.
Through the strategic review the Board has reached the following conclusions:
- The Group comprises a number of successful businesses operating across two core geographies, with different capital requirements and growth trajectories; and
- There are compelling current and potential linkages between the Specialist Banking and Wealth & Investment businesses, however, there are limited synergies between these two businesses and IAM.
The Board has further concluded that it is now appropriate to demerge and publicly list IAM (“the Transaction’”). The Investec Specialist Banking and Investec Wealth & Investment businesses will remain part of the Group’s current Dual Listed Companies structure (“the remaining Group”). The Board believes that this Transaction simplifies the Group and focuses IAM and the remaining Group on their respective growth paths, which will enhance the long- term prospects and potential of both businesses for the benefit of their shareholders, clients and employees
(extract from Stock Exchange News Services Announcement)
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Potential Trade Ideas
MMI
Weekly Chart View: Following a break of the downward trend line and short term price appreciation from around R16.22 to R17.66, the price has subsequently retreated to re-test the breakout level with a strong bounce off the trend line support going back to December 2015. This test also potentially creates a double bottom and an opportunity to take a buy/long position.
Coronation Fund Managers
Weekly Chart View: The price action for CML signals a medium term bottom, with the strong price action at it's year-to-date lows. Over the last 6 weeks, 5874c has been tested and a break above this level could see the share price make a bullish medium term reversal. The Relative Strength Index is signaling bullish divergence - an early technical reversal signal. This creates an opportunity to potentially take a buy/long position.
Aus miners:
BHP Billiton (-0.66%)
Rio Tinto (-0.29%)
S32 (+1.73%)
FANGs
Facebook (+0.59%)
Amazon (-0.99%)
Netflix (+0.98%)
Google (-0.35%)
FTSE Miners:
Anglo American plc (+2.28%)
BHP Billiton plc (+0.68%)
Glencore plc (+0.68%)
Alibaba Holdings (-0.48%)
Tencent Holdings (-3.09%)
Share Link: bit.ly/JoinUnum
________________________________________
The Unum Capital Trading Desk
Please contact the Unum Trading desk for any trading related queries : 011 384 2929