NAS100 Trend Analysis: From Higher Highs to a Potential Shift📊 NASDAQ 100 (NAS100) Analysis 📊
Someone recently asked me to cover the NAS100 🤔 as price action can look a little confusing right now. On the 4H chart ⏰, we’ve been trending strongly 🟢📈 throughout the week. However, as we head into the end of the week 📅, things are starting to shift.
Zooming into the 30M timeframe 🔍, price action is showing early signs of weakness ⚠️. We’ve had a high, then a higher high ⬆️, and now a lower high 🔽 — instead of a continuation of higher highs.
In the video, we take a deep dive 🎥 into market structure 🏗️, price action 💡, and the trend 📊, highlighting what to watch out for as institutions and big players wind up or unwind positions 💼 into the week’s close.
💬 Your thoughts and comments are welcome!
⚠️ This is educational only and not financial advice. 📚
USTEC trade ideas
Beyond the Chart – NAS100 Through Technicals & Fundamentals⚖️ CAPITALCOM:US100 Fundamental Impact today
• The core driver is the US CPI (inflation) + Unemployment Claims at 3:30 pm.
• Expect increased volatility on NAS100 around that time:
• ✅ Lower CPI + weaker jobs → Bullish NAS100 (rate cut hopes).
• ❌ Higher CPI + strong jobs → Bearish NAS100 (higher for longer Fed).
1. Bearish Continuation (Main Scenario)
• Rejection from the bearish FVG + BB zone → downside continuation.
• Targeting:
• 23,750 short-term liquidity sweep.
• Then 23,700–23,650 (discount FVG).
• Extended target: 23,540 (major discount PD array).
2. Deeper Retracement / Liquidity Sweep (Alternative Scenario)
• Price might push slightly above the bearish FVG / BB zone (~23,900–23,930) to sweep late shorts.
• Then reversal down, same targets as scenario 1.
3. Bullish Recovery (Less Likely for Now)
• If price reclaims above 23,950–24,000, structure shifts bullish again.
• Potential revisit of 24,100+ liquidity above the HH.
⸻
⚖️ Bias
• For now, bias is bearish unless 23,950–24,000 is broken with strength.
• Volume histogram also shows selling momentum increasing after the rejection.
Nas100: Trading Levels in FocusKey Zones in Play
Zone 1 – Yesterday’s High:
Yesterday’s high represents the level where buyers lost momentum and sellers stepped in. If price revisits this zone, traders should expect potential supply pressure. A clean break and sustained hold above would signal renewed strength and could re-ignite bullish momentum.
Zone 2 – Yesterday’s Low:
This zone is the lower boundary of the previous session and now acts as short-term support. Buyers may defend this level to maintain structure, but its reliability is limited given the fresh all-time high environment and lack of historical confirmation. A decisive break below would weaken the bullish case and could invite deeper retracement.
Conclusion:
With US100 trading close to record highs, these zones provide useful guidelines, but they should not be treated as precise buy or sell triggers. In uncharted territory, reactions are often more volatile, making it essential to treat these levels as reference points rather than absolute decision zones.
Morning Sentiment Brief
Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. The recent Fed rate cut and ongoing enthusiasm around AI investments continue to underpin a bullish narrative, keeping the US100 near record highs. However, Powell’s cautious tone this week, stressing data-dependence and warning about stretched equity valuations, has cooled some of the initial euphoria.
Traders are now balancing optimism with prudence. Tech momentum is intact, but profit-taking and sector rotation show that conviction is more selective. Political and regulatory headlines add another layer of uncertainty, leaving the market more sensitive to incoming catalysts. Overall, the bias stays positive, but participants are trading with more caution as the index moves in uncharted territory.
Beyond the Chart - NAS100 Through Technicals & FundamentalsNAS100 has just completed its move into the Discount PD Array zone I highlighted yesterday. On the 1H timeframe, I pointed out the prevailing bearish trend and marked this area as a key target. Once price tapped the zone, sellers lost momentum and buyers stepped in, shifting market control.
Now we’re seeing an inverse Z formation, with a Fair Value Gap (FVG) and a Breaker Block (BB) cutting across the structure. If buyers step in again, as they did in the earlier PD Array, my upside target will be 24,580.
NAS100 H4 | Bullish momentum to extend?NAS100 is falling towards the buy entry at 24,368.82, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to the upside.
Stop loss is at 23,991.90, which is an overlap support.
Take profit is at 24,087.48, which aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
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NASDAQ US100 Long
Entry Zone: 24,542.
Stop-Loss: 24,360
Take-Profit: 24,717
Risk (Stop distance): ~182 points (24,542 – 24,360).
Reward (Target distance): ~175 points (24,717 – 24,542).
RSI Trend: Recently dipped sharply, showing selling pressure, but possible rebound if support holds. Price is respecting a long-term trendline.
"Reaching Our First Target: What's the Next Step?"By scrutinizing the US100 chart on the30-minutes timeframe, it's evident that the price has initiated a powerful uptrend after surmounting several resistance zones. This is substantiated by the explicit "BOS" (Break of Structure) points, signaling that the market is consistently forging new, higher peaks. The "Shape Shift" noted on the chart indicates a transformation in market character, transitioning from a period of consolidation or a downtrend into a fresh, vigorous bullish impulse.
The price is currently nearing a pivotal resistance point around 24,783.0000. Should the price manage to breach and maintain a position above this threshold, we can anticipate a continuation of the upward trajectory. The prospective targets, labeled as "Destinations," are, 24804.7998, 24,892.2493 and , with an additional high-level objective at 24,946.1082.
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SimarEdgeTrading
Trading Nas100 at Record Highs The Nasdaq-100 is currently trading at fresh all-time highs, which naturally makes it more difficult to identify strong, well-tested support and resistance levels. With limited historical price action to lean on, these zones should be viewed as guidelines rather than exact buy or sell levels. Traders should remain cautious and flexible in their execution.
Zone 1 – All-time high & yesterday’s high:
This area represents the current record high and the most immediate point of resistance. Price action here is uncharted territory, so reactions can be volatile. A breakout above this zone would confirm continued strength, while rejection could trigger short-term pullbacks.
Zone 2 – Yesterday’s all-time high:
This former high now acts as a potential reference support. If tested, it may attract buyers looking to defend the trend, but given the lack of historical confirmation, reliability remains limited.
Zone 3 – Yesterday’s low:
This marks the lower boundary of recent price action and serves as the next potential support area. If broken decisively, it could indicate fading momentum and open the door for a deeper retracement.
Nas100 is trading near record highs with strong momentum driven by the tech sector, especially AI leaders like Nvidia. The overall sentiment remains bullish, but traders should watch for potential consolidation as the index approaches resistance and technical indicators signal overbought conditions. Regulatory headlines and Fed rate-cut expectations could act as key catalysts for volatility.
Nas100: Trading Zones at Record HighsKey Zones in Focus
Zone 1 – All-time high area:
This zone marks the current all-time high and therefore acts as immediate resistance. Price has already tested this area, and sellers may attempt to defend it, leading to potential rejection or short-term pullbacks. A clean breakout and sustained hold above this level would confirm bullish continuation into uncharted territory, opening the door for further upside momentum.
Zone 2 – Demand zone:
This zone represents a recent consolidation cluster where both buyers and sellers were actively positioning. As the breakout unfolded, this area shifted from resistance to support. Short-term buyers are likely to step in here to defend the trend. A decisive break back below this zone, however, would weaken bullish conviction and could trigger a deeper retracement toward lower levels.
The sentiment around the US100 has turned more optimistic following last week’s Federal Reserve meeting, where the central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points — the first rate cut since December 2024. This concrete policy move has reinforced investor confidence that monetary conditions are shifting toward a more supportive stance. At the same time, strong momentum in the technology sector, highlighted by new AI-focused partnerships and improving trade signals between the U.S. and China, has further boosted risk appetite. While some caution remains regarding the pace of future cuts and macroeconomic headwinds, the overall market tone is positive, with traders viewing the recent policy shift as a catalyst for continued strength in the Nasdaq-100.
NASQAD Weekly NASQAD 📊 Weekly Market Outlook
On this pair, we see a strong confluence forming on the Weekly timeframe:
✔️ Weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG)
✔️ Strong Weekly Order Block
✔️ Fibonacci retracement alignment
This zone is a high-probability area to watch. If price taps into this level, we’ll look for confirmation on lower timeframes before executing a buy setup.
Smart traders wait for price action to confirm before entering patience here can make all the difference.
Nasdaq-100 (NDX) Weekly Chart 2025 Chart Context
This weekly timeframe analysis of the Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) forms a key pillar in our 2025 macro analysis series. Following the breakout structure seen in TOTAL, TOTAL2, BTC.D, and US10Y, this chart utilizes 2 Fibonacci tools (1 trend-based extensions and 1 retracement) to project potential corrective and expansion scenarios.
Fibonacci Tools Used:
Fibonacci Retracement : Applies to the recent smaller swing to determine micro retracement zones and cluster supports.
0=20674 and 100=10504
Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension: Drawn using a three-leg structure (point A= 3993 to B=16724 to C10504) to forecast upside targets beyond ATH.
All take-profit (TP) levels: TP1 (~23,400), TP2 (~26,700), and TP3 (~30,344.49)—are located at confluence zones where Fibonacci levels from different tools align, reinforcing their validity and strength.
There is a 4TP above all the Visible TPs
Key price references:
0% retracement: ~20,674.71
Next Resistance ~23,400 (confluence of extensions and psychological resistance)
Projected TPs:
1TP=~23,400,
2TP=~26,700,
3TP=~30,344.49,
4TP=44000
Support/Resistance:
Red zone: ~16,700–18,300 (historical S/R and correction target and Fib Confluences)
Resistance zone: ~23,000–23,400 ,
22000(ATH area)
Key Technical Observations:
Fibonacci Retracement from ~20674 to ~15732 marks the initial corrective range.
Trend-Based Extensions forecast:
TP1 (~23,400): First breakout resistance
TP2 (~26,700): Medium-term expansion zone
TP3 (~30,344): Long-term target if macro tailwinds persist
Scenario Pathways:
Bullish Continuation: Breaks above ATH to reach TP2/TP3
Healthy Correction: Pullback to ~20,600 or deeper ~18,300 before resumption
Deep Correction: Revisits ~16,700 zone if macro environment deteriorates
Fundamental Context:
Tech Stocks & Economic Sentiment: NDX is often the first to move during liquidity expansions. Its performance signals risk-on behavior across global equity markets.
Rate Cuts in 2025: With anticipated Fed rate cuts, tech stocks are primed for inflows. Forward earnings valuations rise, justifying extended upside in high-beta tech.
AI Boom & Earnings Growth: Nasdaq is heavily weighted toward AI, cloud, and semiconductors—sectors expected to lead earnings surprises.
NDX Influence on Gold and Crypto
When NDX rallies:
Crypto: Risk appetite improves. Capital rotation flows into altcoins and layer-1 assets.
Bitcoin: Often sees parallel inflows, especially during strong tech rallies (e.g., 2020).
TOTAL & TOTAL3: Begin breakout patterns if NDX continues to surge.
Gold: May stall or correct as investors favor risk assets. However, gold still holds due to macro hedging and real yield pressures.
When NDX corrects:
Crypto: Volatility spikes. Altcoins bleed faster.
Bitcoin: Short-term dip but may decouple if viewed as digital gold.
Gold: Benefits from flight-to-safety behavior.
US10Y: Often reacts inversely to NDX moves—used for confirmation.
Search Highlights (2024–2025):
Institutions view NDX correction as signal to rotate into commodities (incl. gold).
Cross-market correlations show NDX peaks often precede crypto mini-rallies.
De-risking from NDX often triggers gold strength, especially in geopolitical or inflationary backdrops.
Bias & Strategy Implication
Primary Bias: Bullish
Expecting upside continuation to 26,700–30,000 zone
Multiple correction opportunities are present even during rally
Strategic Actions:
Monitor for correction to yellow/red zones for accumulation
Use NDX behavior as leading macro signal for crypto rotations
Watch resistance at 23,400 closely; breakout confirms trend extension
Time Horizon
Short-Term (1–2 months): Watch for breakout or correction to ~20,600–18,300
Mid-Term (3–6 months): Probable test of ~26,700
Long-Term (6–12 months): Potential expansion to ~30,344.49
nas100 4hTrading Perspectives for the Upcoming Week
In this series of analyses, we have reviewed short-term trading perspectives and outlooks.
As can be seen, in each analysis there is a significant support/resistance zone near the current asset price. The market’s reaction to or break of this level will determine the future price trend up to the next specified levels.
Important Note: The purpose of these trading perspectives is to examine key price levels and the market’s potential reactions to them. The analyses provided are by no means trading signals!
Buy Opportunity Nas100Nas100 is bullish, therefore, this coming week we still looking for buys.
A lot of buyers will step into the market on the 3rd touch of the trend line, but the market will take those buyers out because there is a demand zone and liquidity below the trend line.
I believe the market will break the trend line, go towards the demand zone, and grab liquidity below that demand zone before continuing in its bullish momentum. It might even go towards the daily key level at 23900 before continuing up. Therefore, once we reach the demand zone, it is important that we drop to lower time frames and look for buying opportunities, being mindful of the liquidity zone. Do not take an aggressive entry, look for change of character on lower time frames before taking a buy position.