TGD1! trade ideas
gold is at the edge of pullback if structure is correct 1->3 : number 3 closes above number 1 ,
making number 2 proven buyers
3->4 : return to proven buyers
next ?
* lower LRC extended to 3 deviation points for
potential extreme pullback
* rsi and mfi hidden bull ( continuation) + oversold
* these complex tools can be embarresingly
bad.. but schiff pitchfork with frequency
shifting catches an edge in obv indicator, alongside diagonal trendline and horizontal support line
buyers are being setup for a trap , it seems obvious but dontmy theory for gold sells
*I was initially bullish until
I noticed a few tricky things
* structure number 2 is not
a solid low, meaning they
have not proven themselves
to be stronger than number 1
sellers, because they have not
created a push above them,
so this low is misleading and
not a proper stop
* obv is in a downtrend while
price is in an uptrend, obv
in downtrend means that there
is an increased selling interest ,
so this diverging from price going
up can only mean .... there
are no buyers and price is not going up
due to a huge amount of buying power but the sellers are not pushing too hard in specific areas
* the 3 support lines are not solid support, in fact they are all wicks and 'fake lows'
* I dont have a solid stop to enter a short,
but all these things + divergence on rsi and mfi is just telling me that the obvious
buy trade might be a trap
Intraday Bearish Narrative – London Session (Gold Futures)Gold opened the London session under clear downside pressure, extending weakness from the prior U.S. session. After a strong rally into the 3619–3620 area, sellers regained control, forming lower highs and pressing price below the descending trendline (red dashed).
During London hours, attempts to recover above 3600–3606 failed, reinforcing the bearish bias. The current setup aligns with a sell-on-rally structure: price has retested the broken trendline and prior support-turned-resistance zone near 3610–3613, where sellers defended strongly.
As long as price holds below 3613, the bearish structure remains intact, with intraday downside targets layered at:
3593.5 (nearest support, minor liquidity pocket)
3569–3566 (London extension target, key demand zone)
3550–3548 (deeper measured move target if momentum accelerates).
Stops are well-placed above 3610–3613, invalidating the setup if buyers reclaim this supply zone.
📉 Bias: Bearish intraday continuation, favoring shorts beneath 3610–3613 with room for multiple downside liquidity sweeps into the mid-3500s.
return to proven sellers presents sell continuation could not post on time due to 10 post per day limit. I entered as per the drawing tool visualization.
1->3 : creates a lower low , number 2 are dominant sellers
3->4: we see a solid buying pressure coming to meet our
sellers who have pushed the market below the previous
attempt to push up at number 1
what next ?
* a break below support / micro bull turn point with stop
above number 2 would look safe
* from number 2->4 I have a 2nd degree bearish divergence
* increasing volitility and sideways movemnet as market
prepares to open and perhaps pick a direction
* vwap 1st standard deviation from number 1
*extreme of peak #2 might align with vwap and vpoc ,
perhaps a sell stop when price reaches there ... which
it might when volume picks up
*despite price going up, staying under
obv trendline showing selling interest
*micro bear pattern wanted
Gold Futures – Momentum Strong but Eyes on Jobs DataPrice pushed extremely bullish yesterday, with little chance for pullbacks. I admittedly got stopped out a few times from reacting too quickly to impulses, so today I’m focused on patience and waiting for confirmation.
Currently, Gold is holding above recent levels after breaking higher. There’s still a clean 4H/8H FVG below that price could revisit, but as long as momentum stays intact, buyers remain in control.
⚠️ Important: Tomorrow brings ADP Non-Farm Employment, Jobless Claims, and ISM Services PMI — all of which could drive volatility. Friday is the heavyweight NFP release. Until then, we may see liquidity hunts or choppy price action.
Scenarios I’m watching:
✅ Bullish continuation toward new highs if support holds.
🔄 Deeper pullback into the FVG if momentum stalls.
Staying patient, letting the market show its hand, and keeping risk tight ahead of news.
All Time Highs for Precious MetalsGold and Silver are continuing to show resilience today leading the precious metals higher to new all time high prices. Looking at the Gold market, today marks 5 consecutive days with a higher all-time high and a higher low, and Silver has had 4 consecutive days with a higher high and higher low, which is rare to see at elevated prices for these markets. There was some significant data released looking at JOLTs, which was the lowest reported number since Match of 2021 which led Gold and Silver to both see positive gains again today. Along with that, there is an expected nonfarm payrolls report and an unemployment rate coming out Friday, and the nonfarm payrolls number is expected at 74k, which is the lowest expected number since February of 2021.
Equity markets battled back and forth today and the S&P and Nasdaq were able to finish the day positive with a strong upside move into the close. With the equities trading near all time high prices, there will be a lot of attention on the economic data for the rest of the week looking at jobs and employment. The CME Fed Watch Tool also saw slight shifts over the past 2 days and now are pricing in a 25-basis point rate cut for the September and October meeting. These figures have been changing rapidly, and traders will get more clarity once we hear from Powell after the September meeting in a few weeks.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
GC/GOLD bull rally setupHigh potential: looking for a 60 SMA support (~3200) in 2 weeks and then continue the bull rally (green path)
Medium potential: looking for a 20 weekly SMA support (~3140) in 1 month and then continue the bull rally (cyan path)
Low potential: directly break out next week (red path), but indicators do not quite support this case, so it may need some "external news"
Gold Lags Behind SilverGold lags behind silver. I’m referring to silver’s percentage gains outpacing gold, not suggesting that silver is becoming more expensive than gold. Investors and traders focus on percentage gains, whereas consumers buying jewelry make decisions based on how much it’ll actually cost them.
Last year, silver’s 60% gain outpaced gold’s 40%, and year-to-date, silver has once again outperformed gold with a 52% gain compared to gold’s 36%.
Micro Silver Futures
Ticker: SIL
Minimum fluctuation:
0.005 per troy ounce = $5.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Gold Futures (MGC / GC) — Daily Outlook (Wed)Price just broke the previous ATH (3,578) and is in new price discovery. Momentum is bullish, but there are key imbalances below that could attract price before continuation.
🔍 Key Levels
ATH (3,578) → breakout level to watch
1H FVG (3,565–3,575) → short-term support zone
4H + 8H FVG stack (3,515–3,535) → deeper liquidity target
Immediate resistance → 3,610–3,620 zone
⚖️ Scenarios for Wednesday
1️⃣ Bullish Continuation (primary bias)
If ATH (3,578) holds → look for continuation into 3,610–3,620+
1H FVG may provide a bounce if tested
2️⃣ Deeper Pullback (secondary bias)
Failure to hold ATH → watch for a drop into 3,515–3,535 (4H/8H FVGs) before bullish continuation
✅ Trade Plan Idea
Continuation play:
Buy on ATH retest / 1H FVG bounce (3,575 zone) → target 3,610–3,620+
Deeper retrace play:
If ATH breaks clean → wait for price inside 3,515–3,535 zone → look for reversal confirmation long
📌 Notes
Momentum = bullish until proven otherwise
Don’t chase → wait for either ATH defense or clean retrace into imbalances
Manage risk → this is price discovery, expect volatility
📊 What’s your bias here? Do you see price holding ATH for continuation, or do you think we dip first into the deeper FVGs?
Basic Trading: Marking Support and Resistance In this lesson, I walk through the basics of how I mark support and resistance levels on my charts. These key zones highlight areas where price has reacted multiple times, creating strong consolidation. Within these zones, there’s often opportunity to capture moves as the market ranges and builds momentum. By identifying these levels, traders can better anticipate entries, manage risk, and find room to profit inside the zone before price makes its next breakout or reversal.
Basic Trading Marking up Support and Resistance In this lesson, I walk through the basics of how I mark support and resistance levels on my charts. These key zones highlight areas where price has reacted multiple times, creating strong consolidation. Within these zones, there’s often opportunity to capture moves as the market ranges and builds momentum. By identifying these levels, traders can better anticipate entries, manage risk, and find room to profit inside the zone before price makes its next breakout or reversal.