MGC - WEEK 35 AUG 24TH Looking to see gold run up to take highs this week as dollar drop to take out its own lows. Based on new we should see the most action towards the end of the week.
TGD1! trade ideas
goldi believe cold can corrective until range 3200 dollars
3200 is very important
now, gold start corrective trend that it can time correction or price correction
possible price are 3200 &3070 $
GC : Short levelHere is a great entry point for those who scalp this instrument or pips. The level is marked with a red arrow. It will be active until I report. It may become inactive over time.
golds highly volitile return to solid sellers presents a = SELL1->2: a volitile move upward
2->5: followed by an expected controlled(ish)
downward move
5: buyers entering due to a view of price being cheap,
a lack of structure signals this might not last too long,
too much energy expension without rest
what do I think will happen?
* with this kind of volitility it's hard to say
* looking at logic we would like to enter ...
around the high of 4, expecting the sellers from 2
to be stronger, as they previously were able to push down
sellers from 1 that had a seemingly similar buy strength
* hidden divergence RSI and MFI
* oversold rsi and mfi
* we have reached the target according to zone trading,
next target would be at the high of 2 , im not sure that's
realistic, given the information we have so far
* we have a 64% success rate of reaching the next low
according to the indicator over the past 2,500 bars
* number 4 is more risky as a stop, but it is still a solid stop
Moving down for nowThis channel is not providing individualized trading or investment advice, nor is it a banking service, brokerage service, trading service, investment service or money management service
Gold is testing key levels – setup indicates a favorable buying.Here are 2 charts of Gold on the Daily Timeframe.
GOLD1! is approaching its support zone, with key levels at ₹98,200 and ₹98,800.
The Monthly Pivot at ₹98,375 also aligns with this zone, indicating a strong support area.
Fibonacci Golden Ratio is also indicating key support levels around ₹99,200 and ₹98,200, which may act as strong demand zones.
If respected, these levels could trigger a fresh upside move.
Thank You !!
GC Local Breakout to Top of Daily Range ✅ Pre-Trade Checklist
Session context: Range Bound
Daily Bias: I'm still holding on to a long bias, but we are definitely in a daily downtrend
Key levels: 3370 at bottom of range, 3400 at top of range
CVD and delta structure: Strong positive CVD approaching the breakout level
Entry, SL, and TP are at reasonable levels on the order book
Calculated Risk: 5 MGC for $150 risk
📊 Trend Follow (Order Book Focus)
Clear directional move established (impulse leg breaking structure)
Pullback to value area / trendline / support-resistance level
Order book shows a clear liquidity target in the direction of the move.
CVD aligned with trend
Pullback shows **lower volume + weaker delta** vs. impulse leg
No absorption blocking continuation at the level
Entry at level of support on order book
🎯 Trade Execution
Entry: 3389.9
Stop: 3380.9
Target(s): 3395.9
R:R: 4:1
📓 Post-Trade Notes
Outcome: TBD
Plan followed? No
If not, what rule was broken? I don't usually trade local breakouts, so this trade is not really in plan for me.
Lessons learned:
Gold Futures | Accumulation in Play – Watching for Manipulation Gold Futures are currently sitting in the Accumulation phase of an AMD sequence. Price is ranging just above the Daily/H4 FVG demand zone (3350–3360) after rejecting supply at 3387–3394.
Here’s what I’m watching:
Accumulation: Current consolidation between 3368–3387.
Manipulation: A clean sweep of yesterday’s low (3368) would complete this phase.
Distribution: If manipulation plays out, I’ll look for price to rotate higher, targeting 3387 → 3404 and potentially higher levels.
⚖️ Bias: Waiting for liquidity run before positioning long.
No need to rush — the sweep is the confirmation. Until then, patient observation.
Learning Video On Gold Future 18th AugGold Future had doing consolidation on downside & expected to move further down
an uptrend returns to an area of strong action , continuation?1. a strong conviction selloff , or so it seemed, before an
even more powerful buy order in the same area ( set of buy orders)
1-2. notice that we have strong moves in both 1 and 2 , to me this
represents that this is a strong volume area , the resistance then
encoutnered by buyers at 1, should logically be support at 4
3. a higher high showing an interest to the upside, supporting the
idea at 4 of a position switch and test to take us up
4. the strong selloff to me is dangerous, if it was a profit take then
I would expect an immediate slow uptrend to continue up, this makes
the buy idea more danergous at 4 ...
what do I think will happen ?
* continuation is the play, we have a logical area to enter so... could we be
too early... maybe, maybe not.
* we have a great 79% follow through rate, if a candle closes on one side of the zone
it has a 79% chance to follow through to the other end, in this case only themiddle,
you can verify manually by having lookback at 100 and counting youself to verify.
GC Futures – Will Bulls Defend the Daily/H4 FVG Overlap?Gold Futures opened the week pressing directly into a stacked Daily + H4 FVG demand zone (3350–3360). Price action is sitting just above this level, making it the key battleground for the week.
Support: 3350 (FVG low), 3332 liquidity sweep
Resistance: 3377 → 3394 (prior D-H), 3451 (M-H)
Scenarios: Bounce off demand could target 3380–3394, with a reclaim opening 3420–3450. Failure here points to deeper liquidity at 3332.
Asian session may set the early range, but real direction likely comes during London/NY killzones. Watching closely for reaction inside the FVG overlap.
Shorting Gold again I will be amazed if this short dosent play out.
Those two red lines on are the actual stoploss placement. I thing the price should stretch beyond those two red lines.
for more safty, use the second stoploss as its more wider but safer than the first one.
Hopefully it goes through.
gold in clear downtrend : retrace or continuation down expected
1. push down with buyers coming in at #2
2. buyers come in with surprising but deceptive volitility,
not sustainable, a short upward flow to reach #3
3. sellers from #1 battle buyers from #2, double top formed
4. sellers push down to the previous hard reaction area, no such
reaction, this shows there is no true interest here.
- due to these factors.... I predict we might
a. go up to 3-4 area then head down below 4
b. go straight down below 4
due to the chaos theory indicator giving targets, its more
probable that we retrace at least, then we can enter lower
if price never goes lower then its invalid and we look
to see the next steps.
GOLD Outlook. 15.08.2025, FridayCOMEX:GC1!
Expecting a massive short on gold. Will be hunting for the New York meltdown
Gold Futures – Waiting for the Flush Before the Long (Asian KillMarket Context:
Gold is sitting right inside a confluence zone — overlapping Daily + H4 Fair Value Gaps at 3,375–3,380. This zone also aligns with the lower boundary of last week’s range (W-L at 3,397).
What I’m Watching:
Going into the Asian Killzone, I’m looking for an impulsive spike down into this FVG.
This move would ideally push below 3,375, tag liquidity, and create DOM excess — the kind of aggressive selling that often marks exhaustion before reversal.
ADX is above 25 and rising, signaling momentum is strong — but we’re at a potential pivot level.
Bullish Setup Criteria:
Flush down into 3,375 or slightly below.
DOM excess showing absorption (stuck sellers).
Strong rejection candle (M1/M5) followed by bullish follow-through.
Targets if Triggered:
T1: 3,397 (Weekly Low)
T2: 3,423 (Daily High)
Stretch: 3,451 (Monthly High)
Invalidation:
1H close below 3,375 without immediate reclaim.
Summary:
Patience is key. I want to see sellers press in during Asia, fail to break down with continuation, and then get run over on a squeeze higher. If we get the right reaction, this could be the start of a strong move into Weekend.
Will Gold Rip or Slip from Here?Heading into the Tokyo session, MGC sits in a critical decision zone. Price action on the 5-minute shows a clear double bottom structure forming near $3,778 a level that has already acted as a demand shelf twice today. From a quant perspective, we have a short-term oversold condition colliding with intraday support, which typically presents a mean-reversion probability spike in low-liquidity Asian hours.
Bullish scenario (42% probability):
- Confirmation trigger is a break and hold above $3,787 (micro neckline).
- Immediate resistance comes in at $3,790–$3,794 (local VWAP + micro EMA confluence).
- If liquidity builds, stretch target aligns with the 50% fib retrace of the last swing at $3,391.7 (highly dependent on overnight momentum continuation).
- Risk: Tight stop just below $3,776 to avoid chop whipsaws.
Bearish scenario (58% probability):
- Failure to reclaim $3,787 opens the door for liquidity sweep below $3,778.
- Initial target $3,770, with potential extension toward $3,765 if Asia volume remains one-sided.
- Downside bias is supported by the broader 1H downtrend, VWAP resistance slope, and previous session imbalance still unfilled.
Factors in play:
- VWAP slope: Bearish.
- EMA separation: Expanding to the downside, signalling trend continuation potential.
- Volume profile: Thin liquidity below $3,778 increases probability of a stop-hunt flush before any reversal.
Tokyo session game plan:
Wait for breakout confirmation either a micro double bottom neckline break for the long scalp, or a rejection for the short continuation. Execution discipline is key; Tokyo often gives one clean directional push before stalling into consolidation.
Gold at Crucial Levels – Buy or Sell? Watch These Key Price ZoneDaily Gold Update:
This is the daily timeframe chart of Gold1!.
Gold1! is forming an ascending broadening wedge pattern with support in the ₹98,500–₹98,800 range.
If this support holds, we may see higher prices.
However, if it breaks, Gold1! could decline towards its pattern target near ₹95,000.
Thank You !!
Gold Short Going to take this short today.
Looks like a good short to be honest and i dont see anything bullish on the chart.
If iam rating this short, i would say 6 out of 10 this will play out right.
Hopefully it goes through :D
Gold Futures – Testing Trendline ResistanceGold has rallied back into a converging resistance zone — the intersection of the upper short-term trendline and longer-term descending trendline. Price is showing signs of hesitation here.
Price is pressing against the red diagonal resistance.
This level has rejected multiple times.
Setup targets a pullback toward mid-channel support near 3,407, then 3,388.
Stop positioned above resistance to protect against a breakout continuation.
Gold Futures – Bearish Target Hit… But the H4 Gap Still WaitsYesterday’s sessions made their move for the higher bearish target, leaving the H4 & Daily FVG untouched below. This sets up an interesting scenario: will price roll over to fill the gap next, or keep hunting liquidity above?
Key levels and volume profile zones are adjusted for today.
Premium supply zone reached ✅
H4/Daily FVG still in play 📉
Watching London Killzone for impulsive confirmation
Patience is the edge — no clean setup, no trade.
Tokyo Gold Play: 68% Short Bias, But Watch the FlipAlright, here’s where we’re at going into Tokyo. Gold’s stuck right between a rock and a hard place. On the 1-hour, we’ve just bounced off the upper side of a big descending channel and couldn’t even sniff past that 50% fib from the 3,510.9 → 3,386.3 drop.
On the 5-minute, it’s even cleaner: double top at 3,420.8, neckline chilling at 3,400.9, and we’re camped right at VWAP under a short-term downtrend line. Everything’s coiling, and whichever side breaks first is probably gonna run the table for the session. My bias? Still leaning bearish 68% downside odds based on the structure, the fibs, and how order flow’s been stacking.
The Bigger Picture (1H)
- Rejected straight off the channel midline, couldn’t crack 3,448.6 (50% fib).
- Lower highs still printing since Aug 8.
- Major support sits at 3,386.3 that’s the line in the sand for the next leg down.
Intraday Setup (5M)
- Clean descending trend line from the highs.
- Double top locked at 3,420.8, neckline at 3,400.9.
- Price hugging VWAP, which is acting like a lid.
Bearish Plan (Main Play – 68%)
- Trigger: Lose 3,404.0 (VWAP + fib cluster).
Targets:
- 3,400.9 (neckline)
- 3,392.4 (fib projection)
- 3,386.3 (1H support)
Why I like it:
Multi-TF downtrend, rejection from key levels, and lower-high flow on the 5M.
Bullish Backup Plan (32%)
- Trigger: Get back over 3,410.9 and crack 3,420.8.
- Targets: 3,424.9, 3,448.6 (HTF fib)
- Why it’s risky: Would need a trend line break + VWAP reclaim with decent volume.
Tokyo Flow
If nothing big hits the wires, Tokyo usually just extends NY’s late session move. Right now, sellers still have the ball unless buyers rip us back over 3,410.9 with conviction.
Quick Stats
- ATR(14) 1H: $17.2 → plenty of range for TP2 in one session if we trend.
- VWAP deviation ±0.25% lines up with our fib levels.
- Downside edge: 68%, Upside edge: 32% from my multi TF model.
Tokyo’s not usually the session that throws the knockout punch, but tonight’s setup has all the right ingredients for a clean move if we get that break. I’m leaning short until proven wrong, and always scalping. Watching 3,404 as the tripwire. If we hold under it, sellers probably drag this into the low 3,390s before the dust settles. But if buyers punch through 3,410 and especially 3,420, I’ll flip the script and ride the squeeze. No bias is worth blowing up a trade levels first, ego second.
6th time is the charm for Gold ? COMEX:GC1! has been tried pushing through that ceiling near $3500, five separate times.
Soon it may try the 6th time. If it does push through convincingly, the upward move might be violent.
It is like having two cup and handles back to back. Can't wait to play it long when it happens. Will play TVC:SILVER as well.
Do you agree?
