Vanguard FTSE All World-Ex US ETF - Bearish HarmonicVanguard FTSE All World-Ex US ETF - Short Idea based on Bearish Harmonic.
025D trade ideas
Everyone Believes What They Want to BelieveRealty != Belief
The secret to this market is to lower your expectation continually.
Bulls do not realize they are sitting in the largest bull trap ever setup.
Macro bottom still pending... it's more of the same: drop, consolidate, drop.
A wise Bera once said:
Resistance is infinite and unbounded.
When a level is broken, there will always be more resistance higher up.
Support is not though, support is capped at 0.
The Fed's view:
www.federalreserve.gov
What does the Beveridge curve tell us about the likelihood of a soft landing?
"It would be unprecedented for job vacancies (openings) to decline by a large amount without the economy falling into recession. We are, in effect, saying that something unprecedented can occur."
Lagging Crash
Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy on September 15, 2008.
The broader stock market did not begin its crash until a week later.
Everyone initially thought Lehman wasn't a systemic risk.
You say crypto crash can not crash stocks with a LAG?
The doom loop is accelerating.
Few understand this.
S&P 500 (SPX) vs Vanguard All-World ex-US (VEU)Comparing the US (SPX) vs the World. VEU seeks to track an index that consists of companies located in developed markets, including Europe, the Pacific, and Canada, and in emerging markets.
VEU - Market decision is comingI'm very interested in people opinion on this one. I'm not pro and still learning but this picture is clear to me...
The Global Stock Market (excluding US) is OverboughtThe Global Stock Market's (excluding US) Monthly RSI is Entering Overbought Territory. While not as extreme as VT, I would be careful about going long here in developed markets or emerging markets. For a while longer, I expect it will outperform the US but I think it will for in upcoming months. The ECB is planning (that may change if stocks or especially bonds fall) cutting back on its quantitative easing as is China. This drop in stimulus and liquidity will likely cause a downturn in European and Chinese markets. EDZ (3x bear) and EDC (3x bull) are leveraged emerging markets etfs. DPK (3x bear) and DZK (3x bull) are leveraged developed markets etfs.
VEU, using most primitive line chartThe index includes approximately 2,200 stocks of companies in 46 countries, from both developed and emerging markets around the world
Frankly, i don't think the weakest in EEM stocks are enough to break this 2009 uptrend line, the developed markets do not fare very well which as a whole contributed to the broke down.
QE4 coming?
VEU finally shows signs of a bottom. VEU has been in a downtrend for a long time. Positive RSI divergence is finally forming. A breakout of the bull wedge would be bullish long term.
Will SPY follow world markets?With world markets making much lower lows, count on the recent lows in the SPY not holding.
A move to the 100 period would hurt, but be constructive.The slope of the SPY move, since the beginning of QE, is unsustainable. A move back to the 100 and 200 period M.A.'s would be healthy.
