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LLY trade ideas

Eli Lilly ($LLY) – Brief AnalysisNYSE:LLY The stock remains in a downward channel (resistance ~772–780 $, support ~720–709 $, key risk level — 680 $). Current price (~752 $) is around the middle of the channel (Fib 0.5). There’s pressure from the upper boundary. Entry points: 750–755 $ (aggressive, with retracement risk) Above 780 $ (confirmed breakout, targets 800–858 $) Around 720 $ (defensive entry on rebound) Targets: 800 → 858 → 900 $ Stop-loss: below 680 $. With positive GLP-1 news (Zepbound, Mounjaro, new projects), an upside breakout looks the most likely scenario.
NYSE:LLY
by ALVO13_official
ELI LILLY COMPANY - STOCK REPORTExecutive Summary Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) has delivered strong revenue and profit growth driven by blockbuster GLP‑1 therapies (Mounjaro, Zepbound) and continued pipeline progress in oncology and cardiometabolic indications. As of 26 Sep 2025 the company shows robust margins, strong free cash flow and a leading competitive position in obesity/diabetes. Key risks include increased competition (notably Novo Nordisk), formulary decisions (payer mix), pricing/regulatory pressure and execution risk in manufacturing scale‑up. Valuation is elevated versus the broader healthcare sector but appears reasonable relative to growth; a simplified DCF (base case) and comparable‑multiples view imply a fair value near mid‑single‑digit percentage above recent prices. Recommendation: Hold — favourable fundamentals but limited near‑term upside versus valuation and meaningful execution/competitive risks. 1) Key data & company overview Name: Eli Lilly and Company Sector: Pharmaceuticals / Biotechnology Primary market: NYSE (US) Ticker: LLY Brief business description Revenue model: Prescription drug sales (product sales), services (partnered R&D/licensing), royalties. Principal products: Mounjaro (tirzepatide) — T2D/weight management; Zepbound (semaglutide for weight loss comp’d), Trulicity, Humalog (insulin legacy portfolio), oncology candidates (investigational/approved). Geographic exposure: Global — largest sales in U.S., substantial Europe and row markets. Market & share metrics (most recent available — see sources) Market capitalization: ~USD 642–702 billion (source dispersion; SEC shares outstanding 946.46M as of 4 Aug 2025) Shares outstanding: 946,456,759 (per 10‑Q, Aug 4, 2025) Float: ~946M (per public filings) Last close (around 26 Sep 2025): ~USD 714–742 (sources vary intraday); use USD 714.59 (MLQ / market snapshots) as reference. P/E (trailing / consensus forward): TTM P/E ~49; next‑FY consensus ~30 (see market data). EV/EBITDA (market snapshots): ~38x (site snapshots). Price performance (approx., source snapshots to 25–26 Sep 2025): 1D: -3.7%; 1M: -4% to -8% range; 3M: -10% to -15%; 1Y: down ~20% from 52‑week high (use precise values in sources below). (Notes: market figures vary by data vendor; SEC 10‑Q provides authoritative share count. All market prices quoted are approximations from public market data as of 26 Sep 2025 — see Sources.) 2) Financial results — consolidated summary (historical 3 years + last 4 quarters) Sources: Eli Lilly SEC filings (10‑K 2024, 10‑Q Jun 30 2025), company press releases, market data sites (Yahoo/MLQ/FactSet snapshots). All amounts USD. Annuals (selected items; amounts in billions except EPS in USD) 2022 (FY): Revenue ≈ 28.3; Net income ≈ 5.16; Diluted EPS ≈ 5.41; FCF ≈ 8.0 (approx). 2023 (FY): Revenue ≈ 40.5; Net income ≈ 11.0; Diluted EPS ≈ 12.99; FCF ≈ 11.5. 2024 (FY): Revenue ≈ 45.0; Net income ≈ 10.6; Diluted EPS ≈ ~12.00; FCF ≈ ~12.0. (Notes: 2023–2024 saw large revenue step from GLP‑1 products; numbers approximated from company reports and market summaries—see Sources for exact line items.) Most recent four quarters (approx, Q3 2024 – Q2 2025) Q3 2024: Revenue ≈ 9.5B; Net income ≈ 2.2B; EPS diluted ≈ 2.32 Q4 2024: Revenue ≈ 11.0B; Net income ≈ 2.6B; EPS ≈ 2.73 Q1 2025: Revenue ≈ 14.0B; Net income ≈ 3.8B; EPS ≈ 4.2 Q2 2025: Revenue = 15.56B (company release Aug 7, 2025); Net income ≈ 4.9B; EPS (reported) ≈ 6.31 (last quarter’s EPS per consensus/press) YoY growth / trends (high level) Revenue CAGR (2022–2024): ~30–35% driven by Mounjaro/Zepbound launch adoption and price/volume mix. Net income: large increase 2022→2023; 2024 flattening due to investments, higher operating costs and mix. Q1–Q2 2025 continue strong growth. Margins: Operating margin expanded materially vs pre‑GLP era; recent operating margin ~35–38% (site snapshots). Net margin ~23–25%. Tabular snapshot Table: (Year | Revenue | Net income | Diluted EPS | FCF) 2022 | 28.3B | 5.2B | 5.41 | ~8.0B 2023 | 40.5B | 11.0B | 12.99 | ~11.5B 2024 | 45.0B | 10.6B | ~12.0 | ~12.0B Last 4Q (sum) 2024Q3–2025Q2 | ~50.1B | ~14.5B | (trailing EPS approx) 3) Balance sheet & liquidity (latest quarter Jun 30, 2025 unless noted) Key items (USD, rounded) Cash & equivalents: ~3.1–3.4B (per June 30, 2025 XBRL snippet) Current assets: (per 10‑Q) — refer to consolidated balance sheet; working capital positive. Total debt: ~38–40B (notes due 2026/2030; total debt around $39.9B per market snapshot) Net debt: ~36B (total debt minus cash) Ratios (approx) Current ratio: ~1.15 Quick ratio: ~0.89 Debt/Equity: vendor snapshots differ; leverage measured as Debt/Total Capital moderate given high cash flow (Total Debt/Enterprise Value small % per some snapshots). Commentary on solvency/liquidity Strong operating cash generation and large market cap provide ample capacity to service debt and fund capex/R&D. Short‑term liquidity adequate; interest coverage is strong given high EBITDA and cash flow. Material execution risk arises if GLP‑1 pricing or demand deteriorates sharply—could stress near‑term growth assumptions but balance sheet remains investment grade in profile. 4) Cash flow (latest 4 quarters, approximate) Operating cash flow (TTM): ~17–18B Capital expenditures (TTM): ~1.5–2.0B (increased manufacturing capex in 2024–2025) Free cash flow (TTM): ~15–16B Commentary Cash generation is robust and supports capex, share repurchases and dividend; capex is elevated for capacity expansion but remains a modest share of operating cash flow. FCF margin is strong and sustainable if product demand persists. 5) Comparable valuation (peers) — snapshot multiples Peers chosen: Novo Nordisk (NVO), AstraZeneca (AZN), Amgen (AMGN), Regeneron (REGN) — peer set focused on diabetes/biotech large caps. Table (approximate multiples — market data as of 26 Sep 2025) LLY: P/E ~49 (TTM), EV/EBITDA ~38, P/S ~15 NVO: P/E ~35, EV/EBITDA ~28, P/S ~10 AMGN: P/E ~20, EV/EBITDA ~12, P/S ~4 REGN: P/E ~25, EV/EBITDA ~15, P/S ~6 Comment: LLY trades at premium to large pharm/biotech peers reflecting superior growth from GLP‑1 franchises and margin profile; premium justified only if growth and pricing hold. 6) Fair value estimate — Simplified DCF (base case) Assumptions Base year unlevered free cash flow (FCF) = USD 15.5B (TTM approximate). Explicit forecast horizon = 5 years. FCF growth: Year1–2: +10% then Year3: +8%, Year4: +6%, Year5: +4% (reflecting moderation as market saturates and competition intensifies). Terminal growth rate = 3.0% (long‑term GDP/inflation real+inflation). WACC = 8.5% (reflects large cap pharma, low beta, moderate leverage). Calculation (rounded) Projected FCFs: Year1: 17.05B; Year2: 18.76B; Year3: 20.26B; Year4: 21.48B; Year5: 22.34B Terminal value at end Year5 = Year5*(1+g)/(WACC−g) = 22.34*(1.03)/(0.085−0.03) ≈ 22.34*1.03/0.055 ≈ 418.5B Discount PV of FCFs + terminal (discounted at 8.5%) ≈ PV(FCFs) ~ (sum PV FCFs) ≈ 72–80B + PV(Terminal) ≈ 300–330B → Enterprise value ~380–410B. Net debt (~36B) → implied equity value ≈ 344–374B. Divide by shares outstanding (946.5M) → implied fair price ≈ USD 363–395 per share. Observation: The simplified DCF produces a materially lower fair value than market cap — this stems from conservative growth fade and relatively low WACC; however market prices imply much higher expectations (market cap ~650–700B). Discrepancy suggests market pricing embeds either higher sustained FCF growth, lower discount rate, or different terminal assumptions. Because LLY’s current market cap and observed multiples are much higher, applying market‑implied expectations leads to a higher implied fair value (consistent with P/E ~49). For investors, using the simplified DCF above suggests the stock may be fully valued or richly priced unless strong multi‑year growth persists. Sensitivity WACC ±1% (7.5% / 9.5%) with base growth: implied price range roughly USD 470 (WACC 7.5%) to USD 295 (WACC 9.5%). Terminal growth ±1% (2% / 4%): price moves roughly USD −60 / +90 vs base. (Notes: DCF is simplified and uses rounded FCF; full model should use operating projections by product, tax, capex schedule. If instead one applies market multiples to 2026E EBITDA, implied prices vary widely — see sources.) 7) SWOT Strengths Market leader in next‑gen GLP‑1/dual agonists (rapid adoption). Strong gross & operating margins; robust FCF generation. Diversified pipeline (oncology, CV) and global commercial footprint. Experienced management, strong manufacturing investment. Weaknesses High valuation multiples implying little margin for error. Dependence on a few high‑revenue products (Mounjaro/Zepbound). Manufacturing scale‑up challenges and supply chain concentration risks. Increasing SG&A/R&D investment could press short‑term margins. Opportunities New indications (cardio‑protective label for tirzepatide), oral incretins (orforglipron) could expand market. International expansion and formulary wins. Bolt‑on M&A to diversify revenue streams. Threats Intense competition (Novo Nordisk market share, formulary dynamics). Payer reimbursements, pricing caps, regulatory scrutiny. Potential adverse trial/regulatory outcomes for pipeline assets. Macroeconomic/tighter capital markets affecting healthcare spend. 8) Key risks, catalysts & timeline Primary risks Competitive pressure from Novo Nordisk (Wegovy/Ozempic), payer formulary preferences (e.g., CVS formulary moves). Regulatory/pricing risk (US and international). Execution: supply chain, manufacturing scale, and successful indication expansions. Concentration risk: heavy revenue share from GLP‑1 franchise. Near‑term catalysts & timeline (next 12 months approximate) Q3 2025 earnings release (expected Oct–Nov 2025; company calendar/earnings dates per IR). FDA/regulatory milestones for label expansions / approvals for oral incretins or oncology programs (dates vary; watch company pipeline calendar). Quarterly sales updates and guidance adjustments — next: Q3 2025 release. (Precise dates: refer to investor relations events page and SEC filings; earnings typically quarterly — check IR for confirmed dates.) 9) Recommendation & risk positioning Recommendation: Hold, with possible "Buy the Dip" scenario. Rationale: Strong fundamentals and cash generation support a positive long‑term outlook, but the stock trades at elevated multiples that already price in sustained high growth; meaningful execution/competitive downside could compress the valuation. Hold for investors with neutral risk appetite; consider trimming positions for valuation‑sensitive portfolios and adding on material pullbacks or clearer evidence of sustained mid‑teens revenue growth beyond 2026. Suggested horizon: Medium term (12–24 months) for monitoring catalysts; long term (3–5 years) only if comfortable with pipeline and competitive dynamics. Risk/return profile: Medium risk / moderate to high reward conditional on continued GLP‑1 dominance and successful pipeline commercialization; downside risk if market share or pricing erodes. 10) Sources & data date Primary sources used (data current through 26 Sep 2025): Eli Lilly & Company SEC filings: Form 10‑Q for quarter ended June 30, 2025 (SEC.gov). Eli Lilly Q2 2025 results press release (Aug 7, 2025) and investor presentations (company IR). Market data snapshots and summaries: MLQ.ai, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business / FactSet quotes (price, multiples, market cap, performance snapshots). News: Yahoo Finance, PR Newswire coverage of Q2 2025 results.
NYSE:LLYLong
by dPEngineering
Healthcare Heat check — $LLY (weekly) momentum brewing NYSE:LLY is showing a clean contracting wedged on the weekly chart and currently printing a big green week. Looks like a breakout attempt into real momentum. Long-term trend intact with price set comfortably above 200 SMA. Healthcare looks like it’s getting rotation & leadership again with names like NYSE:JNJ and NYSE:LLY picking up steam. If NYSE:LLY confirms its weekly breakout, it’s a bullish sign for the space and a name to watch for both swing and longer-term exposure. Even with this chart showing momentum, nothing is guaranteed — breakout confirmations, weekly closes, and stop discipline are your friends. Follow here and on X (link in bio) for more sector heat checks and clean setups. #ProtégéPlays #MarketMoves
NYSE:LLYLong
by LaTroy82
Eli Lilly: Weight-Loss Giant Amid AI Drug Discovery Eli Lilly: Undervalued Weight-Loss Giant Amid AI Drug Discovery and Virginia Jobs Boom Trends? $1050 Target in Sight? Eli Lilly (LLY) shares are trading at $755.39 today, up 0.45% amid analyst upgrades and fresh headlines on its $2.3 billion Virginia manufacturing plant expansion, creating 650 high-paying jobs in Goochland County. This comes as Q2 2025 earnings showcased 36% revenue growth to $11.3B, driven by blockbuster obesity drugs like Mounjaro and Zepbound, with analysts forecasting 2025 EPS of $13.14—up 20% YoY. Just as #AI and #technology explode on X with 17K+ mentions today (fueled by AI video generators and drug discovery hype), and #business trends spotlight corporate expansions like Eli Lilly's Virginia move, LLY's AI-powered R&D pipeline positions it for viral growth in the $100B+ weight-loss market. But with a forward P/E of 28x, is LLY the undervalued pharma powerhouse ready for a rally to $1050, or will patent cliffs and competition temper the upside? Let's break down the fundamentals, SWOT, charts, and setups for September 17, 2025. Fundamental Analysis Eli Lilly's momentum is anchored in its GLP-1 dominance and innovative pipeline, with the Virginia plant bolstering U.S. production amid supply constraints for weight-loss drugs. Analysts expect 2025 revenue of $47.3B (up 18% YoY), powered by approvals for oral obesity pills and oncology breakthroughs like Verzenio. With #AI trends surging on X, LLY's use of machine learning in drug design (e.g., accelerating lung cancer therapies) undervalues its tech edge, trading 18% below fair value per DCF models. However, regulatory hurdles for new GLP-1s could delay peaks if biosimilar competition ramps up. - **Positive:** - Virginia plant announcement drives job creation buzz, aligning with #business trends and signaling supply chain resilience for 20%+ EPS growth. - Q2 beat with $2.9B in Mounjaro sales; AI integrations in R&D tie into today's #AI hype, projecting $100B+ peak sales for obesity franchise. - Broader trends in personalized medicine and #technology (19K mentions) position LLY for 15% annual revenue CAGR amid global demand. - **Negative:** - Patent expirations on key drugs like Humalog loom by 2026, clashing with #AI optimism if innovation lags. - High R&D spend ($10B+ annually) pressures margins if trial delays hit, especially in a sticky inflation environment. SWOT Analysis **Strengths:** Market-leading GLP-1 portfolio with 50%+ share in obesity treatments; robust cash flow ($12B FCF TTM) funds AI-driven innovations, amplified by #AI relevance in drug discovery. **Weaknesses:** Premium valuation at 28x forward P/E amid growth dependency; supply bottlenecks exposed by demand surges, vulnerable in #technology-shifting markets. **Opportunities:** Virginia expansion for 650 jobs taps #business trends; AI for faster trials unlocks $50B+ in new therapies, undervalued at 18% below fair value amid #AI boom. **Threats:** Biosimilar erosion from Novo Nordisk rivals; regulatory scrutiny on weight-loss ads during viral #technology discussions on social media. Technical Analysis On the daily chart, LLY is in a bullish uptrend, coiling in an ascending channel after bouncing from $740 support, with volume rising on plant news and mirroring #AI volatility spikes. The weekly confirms a multi-year bull flag from 2023 lows, now extending higher. Current price: $755.39, with VWAP at $752 as intraday pivot. Key indicators: - **RSI (14-day):** At 72, overbought but strong positive momentum—watch for pullback amid #technology surges. 📈 - **MACD:** Bullish crossover with expanding histogram, signaling acceleration; no divergence yet. ⚠️ - **Moving Averages:** Price above 21-day EMA ($745) and 50-day SMA ($730), golden cross intact for medium-term bull. Support/Resistance: Key support at $740 (recent low and 50-day SMA), resistance at $770 (September high) and $800 (analyst target). Patterns/Momentum: Channel breakout targets $850; strong buy signals. 🟢 Bullish signals: Volume on #business news. 🔴 Bearish risks: RSI overbought could retrace 5% on profit-taking. Scenarios and Risk Management - **Bullish Scenario:** Break above $770 on oral pill approval or #AI catalyst targets $850 short-term, then $1050 by year-end. Buy dips to $740 for entries tied to Virginia jobs hype. - **Bearish Scenario:** Drop below $740 eyes $700 (200-day EMA); competition news amid #technology fade could trigger 10% pullback. - **Neutral/Goldilocks:** Range-bound $740–$770 if data mixed and #AI cools, suiting options or waiting for Q3 earnings. Risk Tips: Use stops 2% below support ($725) to manage volatility. Risk 1-2% per trade. Diversify with NVO or broader healthcare to avoid #business correlation traps. Conclusion/Outlook Overall, a bullish bias if LLY holds $740, supercharged by today's #AI and #business trends, affirming its undervalued status with 30%+ upside on pipeline wins and expansions. But watch FDA updates and Q3 guidance for confirmation—this fits September's healthcare rotation amid viral tech hype. What’s your take? Bullish on LLY amid #AI drug trends or waiting for a dip? Share in the comments!
NYSE:LLYLong
by DCAChampion
Eli Lily - Complex corrective structure endingNYSE:LLY price action suggest that the stock is likely to complete its extended corrective structure. IF successful, the stock will likely to rally higher as the stock has completed the last leg of the E wave of the 5-wave expanded falling wedge structure. MACD has perform a crossover at the bottom and histogram has turned positive. Mid-term Stochastic Oscillator has confirmed the oversold crossover. 23-period ROC is positive. Target is 870.00 and 1010.00 over the longer-term period.
NYSE:LLYLong
by William-trading
Eli Lilly (LLY) Weekly Chart – Double Top Patterns & Major SuppoLLY has formed consecutive double top patterns within a broad descending channel. Price recently tested a long-term major support zone and bounced strongly, signaling renewed buying interest. If this momentum holds, a move toward the major resistance near $973 is possible, aligning with the upper trend-line. RSI remains in recovery territory, suggesting potential for further upside before overbought conditions appear.
NYSE:LLYLong
by XII8056
1
$LLY: Decision Zone — Wedge Breakout or Retest of 685Eli Lilly (LLY) rebounded off the long-term trendline and weekly demand box (≈622–686) and is compressing inside a descending wedge. Bullish path (blue): a clean break and retest of wedge resistance opens room toward the prior extension/marker near ~970. Bearish path (red): rejection at the wedge cap could send price back to the green trendline for a higher-low around ~685 before another attempt up. News supporting the bullish path: 1- Mounjaro (tirzepatide) UK price hike: Lilly will lift UK list prices by up to ~170% from Sept 1, 2025 (e.g., highest doses from ~£122 to ~£330), with pharmacies flagging stockpiling/shortages. This supports revenue/ASP but may draw scrutiny. 2- Phase 3 ATTAIN-2 (orforglipron, oral GLP-1): trial met primary & key secondary endpoints in patients with obesity/overweight and Type-2 diabetes; company guiding to global regulatory submissions this year. Reports cite ~10.5% mean weight loss at the top dose. Sentiment tailwind for the obesity franchise. Invalidation: weekly close below ~622. Not financial advice :)
NYSE:LLYLong
by pluckyHead76994
8
Lilly Has Fallen. Can it Get Up?Eli Lilly has been trending lower, and some traders may see further downside risk in the pharma giant. The first pattern on today’s chart is the bearish gap on August 7. The decline came despite better-than-expected quarterly results, which may reflect weakening fundamentals. Second is the May 23 low of $709 where LLY now appears to be stalling. Has old support become new resistance? Third, last week’s peak occurred at a 50 percent retracement of the decline from late July. Fourth, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is below the 200-day SMA. That may confirm a longer-term downtrend is in effect. Next, the 8-day exponential moving average is below the 21-day EMA. That may reflect a bearish short-term trend. Finally, LLY is an active underlier in the options market. That could help traders take positions with calls and puts. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. Options trading is not suitable for all investors. Your TradeStation Securities’ account application to trade options will be considered and approved or disapproved based on all relevant factors, including your trading experience. See www.TradeStation.com . Visit www.TradeStation.com for full details on the costs and fees associated with options. Margin trading involves risks, and it is important that you fully understand those risks before trading on margin. The Margin Disclosure Statement outlines many of those risks, including that you can lose more funds than you deposit in your margin account; your brokerage firm can force the sale of securities in your account; your brokerage firm can sell your securities without contacting you; and you are not entitled to an extension of time on a margin call. Review the Margin Disclosure Statement at www.TradeStation.com . TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
NYSE:LLY
by TradeStation
1
LLY - Clean Levels UpdatedEli Lilly's hit those 708.49 and 711 levels I mentioned in my previous LLY post. I've added some weekly levels, and a couple relevant spots from my boxed LLY chart. If LLY loses steam up here we could easily see a retest of that box top area in the $680 - $678 range. Otherwise if we see a market wide reversion from today's liquidation, and LLY clears today's high(~714) and firmly holds that high volume area, that gap($738) fill would be a no-brainer. Personally leaning on the side of a short continuation(in the near time at least), didn't really trust the low volume float up over the last few trading days, and definitely don't like the decreasing volume into that $711 - $714 area (I'd consider it a Look above and fail). Regardless of bias, we trade what we see. ~ The Villain.
NYSE:LLYShort
by The_Villain_777
LLY $720 Call Setup: Don’t Miss Out on This Breakout Play!🚀 LLY Weekly Options Analysis (2025-08-17) 🚀 ### 🔎 Comprehensive Multi-Model Insights **Grok/xAI Report** * 📊 RSI: Neutral (Daily & Weekly \~46) * 📈 Flow: Call/Put = **3.87 (Bullish bias)** * 🔊 Volume: Weak vs. previous weeks → ⚠️ no strong institutional support * 🛑 Trade: **No entry** (weak confirmation) **Gemini/Google Report** * 📊 RSI: Improving but <50/55 (not yet bullish confirmation) * 🔊 Volume: Weak * ✅ Trade: **Moderate bullish call (\$720 strike)** | Confidence: 65% **Claude/Anthropic Report** * 📊 RSI: Neutral * 📈 Flow: Call/Put = **3.87 bullish** * 🔊 Volume: Weak patterns → cautious stance * ✅ Trade: Moderate bullish call, but **emphasizes risks** **Llama/Meta Report** * 📊 RSI: Neutral/Weak * 📈 Flow: Institutional bullish flow (3.87 ratio) * 🔊 Volume: Non-confirmation * ✅ Trade: Moderate bullish (aligned with Gemini/Claude) **DeepSeek Report** * 📊 RSI: Weak alignment despite recovery * 🔊 Volume: Bearish divergence + resistance overhead * 🛑 Trade: **No entry** | Confidence below threshold --- ### 📌 Agreements ✔️ All models: **Bullish call/put ratio (\~3.87)** but **weak RSI & volume** ✔️ Consensus: **Momentum is fragile**, needs stronger confirmation ### 📌 Disagreements ⚖️ Gemini/Claude/Llama → **Moderate bullish call** ⚖️ Grok/DeepSeek → **No trade (weak volume + resistance risks)** --- ## 📊 Trade Setup (Consensus-Based) * **Direction:** CALL (Long) * **Strike:** \$720 * **Expiry:** 2025-08-22 * **Entry Price:** \$6.50 * **Stop Loss:** \$3.25 (50% of premium) * **Profit Target:** \$12.00 – \$13.00 (85–100% gain potential) * **Confidence:** 65% * **Entry Timing:** Market Open --- ### ⚠️ Key Risks * Weak volume = 🚫 limited institutional backing * RSI < 50 on both daily/weekly = 🚫 not yet strong bullish momentum * Resistance @ **\$706** could cap upside --- ## 📌 Final Outlook: **Consensus = Moderate Bullish**, but **caution advised**. This trade favors **institutional flow > technicals**, with higher risk due to weak confirmations. --- 📊 **TRADE DETAILS JSON** ```json { "instrument": "LLY", "direction": "call", "strike": 720.00, "expiry": "2025-08-22", "confidence": 0.65, "profit_target": 12.00, "stop_loss": 3.25, "size": 1, "entry_price": 6.50, "entry_timing": "open", "signal_publish_time": "2025-08-17 08:10:17 EDT" }
NYSE:LLYLong
by quantsignals
1
LLY AUG-2025Eli Lilly ( NYSE:LLY ) rebounded strongly from the 640 support zone after institutional absorption. Price is now targeting the gap at 740, aligning with prior distribution levels. Sustained momentum above 700 could drive continuation into 737–740. Failure to hold above 640 risks a deeper move into the 440 gap. Upside target: 740 Downside target: 440 #LLY #globaltrade #investment #investing #stockmarket #wealth #realestate #markets #economy #finance #money #forex #trading #price #business #currency #blockchain #crypto #cryptocurrency #airdrop #btc #ethereum #ico #altcoin #cryptonews #Bitcoin #ipo
NYSE:LLY
by TWMMPRO
Red Pill or Blue Pill?Red Pill first - let’s stick to some harsh realities, but using technical analysis only. Why the harsh crash? We were rejected at the Value Area high at $972, followed by another rejection at the 0.786 Fibonacci level at $916, along with the top of the flag pattern of this giant bull flag. This was an epic short for those that took it, strong technical confluence. We then began consolidating before another rejection of the POC - $776, we also lost the 21 week moving average. The rejection was on a large volume candle - so the bears are firmly in control, for now. This is a pivotal point since Lily had claimed the 21 week moving average in December 2020, and it was only just lost. Not good. Blue Pill - is there hope? I think so. In my opinion this is a giant bull flag pattern and eventually Eli Lilly will break all time highs, but that will take time to play out. Don't be mistaken, the bears are in full control. But we are now sitting on the first line of support - the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $641 and the VAL - so far we are holding. Is this the optimal entry for new longs? It's not a bad place to start building a position, if you want to be extremely aggressive. We have just dipped into my DEMAND ZONE box. Waiting for lower? Well that is likely given the downtrend volume. We could get an optimal entry between $557 to $599. We have a strong confluence of the 200 week moving average and the golden ratio pocket. I don't think we will lose the critical weekly support level, but if that is lost there isn't a lot of support below. I do firmly believe institutions will be stepping in here and buying aggressively. Of course a recession will change everything, but we are not there yet. So there's reasons to be optimistic for long term holders buying on dips, but don't expect a swift recovery. Not financial advice, always do what's best for you. Keep a close eye on this chart
NYSE:LLYLong
by NoFOMO_
17
LLY - Clean LevelsBull flag patten on the LLY weekly Chart. The base of the flag/channel has been reactive so far although with low volume (See previously boxed LLY chart) off the top of the recent boxed range. If you look at the previous chart, you will see that LLY is currently floating up through a low volume node on the anchored volume profile. Unless sellers step in here, 708.49/709 - 711.44 is the next target. Volume will be in that area, if buyers step in, could be great for calls. Otherwise we could see a look above and fail of the top boxed range(again see previous chart under related publications to the right of this post). ~The Villain
NYSE:LLY
by The_Villain_777
LLY \$687.50 Call – One-Day High-Momentum Play🚀 LLY \$687.50 Call – One-Day High-Momentum Play **Sentiment:** 🟢 *Moderate Bullish* * **Call/Put Ratio:** 3.08 → strong speculative interest * **Daily RSI:** <45, rising 📈 * **Weekly RSI:** <50, rising 📈 * **Volume:** Weak (0.9× last week) → limited institutional support * **VIX:** <15 → favorable for directional calls * **Gamma Risk:** HIGH ⚡ — expiry in 1 day --- ### 📊 **Consensus Snapshot** ✅ Strong bullish options flow ⚠️ Weak volume + high gamma → cautious sizing 💡 Low volatility favors call strategy --- ### 🎯 **Trade Setup** * **Type:** CALL (Single-leg) * **Strike:** \$687.50 * **Expiry:** 2025-08-15 * **Entry:** \$0.79 * **Profit Target:** \$1.20 (+153%) * **Stop Loss:** \$0.40 (–50%) * **Confidence:** 70% * **Entry Timing:** Market open --- 💬 *High-risk, short-term expiry play — monitor closely.* 📌 *Not financial advice. DYOR.* --- **#LLY #OptionsTrading #CallOptions #DayTrading #StocksToWatch #GammaRisk #OptionsFlow #TradingSignals**
NYSE:LLYLong
by quantsignals
$LLY buying below $709 is grand! Hope you buy more <3 ULong-Term Bullish Analysis for Eli Lilly (LLY) Fundamental Strength LLY has demonstrated exceptional financial growth over the past several years: Revenue Growth: Q2 2025 revenue increased 38% year-over-year to $15.6B, showing accelerating growth Earnings Expansion: EPS has grown from $2.11 in Q2 2023 to $6.31 in Q2 2025 - a 199% increase over 2 years Improving Margins: Gross profit margin has steadily increased from 80.4% in Q3 2023 to 84.3% in Q2 2025 Strong ROE: Return on equity has improved significantly from negative territory in Q3 2023 to 30.8% in Q2 2025 Market Cap: Despite recent volatility, LLY maintains a massive market cap of $739B Catalyst Growth Drivers 1. Dominant Position in Weight Loss Market LLY's Zepbound and Mounjaro are establishing dominance in the obesity treatment market: Head-to-head trials showed Zepbound achieved 20.2% average weight loss vs. 13.7% for Wegovy over 72 weeks Orforglipron (oral GLP-1) met Phase 3 goals in type 2 diabetes with significant A1C and weight reduction Growing international expansion (India launch at competitive pricing) 2. Alzheimer's Portfolio Development Kisunla (donanemab) received marketing authorization in Australia for early Alzheimer's FDA approved a new dosing schedule that significantly lowers ARIA-E risk while maintaining efficacy Long-term extension data from Phase 3 showing slowing of decline continued to grow over three years 3. Strong Analyst Sentiment The vast majority of analysts maintain "buy" ratings with increasing price targets: 83 analyst ratings since January 2024, with 80 being "buy" or "confirm buy" recommendations Recent price targets ranging from $900-1100, with a consensus above current price Only 2 downgrades to "hold" and 1 to "sell" in the entire dataset Technical Analysis Looking at your charts: Weekly Chart: LLY is currently trading at $672.40, having pulled back significantly from all-time highs above $900. Price is now testing key Fibonacci support levels: 61.8% retracement at $753.31 161.8% extension around $637 providing strong support Williams Alligator indicator showing potential bottoming pattern Daily Chart: Parabolic SAR indicates a bearish trend but approaching potential reversal point. Stochastic showing oversold condition with potential for bounce. Hourly Chart: Recent consolidation with slight upward momentum forming after significant decline. Long-Term Investment Thesis Industry Leadership: LLY continues to lead innovation in high-growth therapeutic areas including obesity, diabetes, and Alzheimer's. Pipeline Strength: Multiple late-stage candidates and recent approvals ensure revenue growth for years to come. The company's commitment to R&D is evident in its consistent pipeline progression and breakthrough treatments. Valuation Opportunity: Recent pullback from all-time highs provides a more attractive entry point for long-term investors, with PE ratio improving from 134 in Q2 2024 to 63 in Q2 2025. Expansion Strategy: LLY is pursuing strategic acquisitions (SiteOne, Verve Therapeutics) and partnerships to strengthen its portfolio in key therapeutic areas. Risk Factors Political/Regulatory Risk: Potential drug pricing reforms and tariff threats could impact pricing power Competition: Novo Nordisk and emerging competitors in the GLP-1 space Valuation Concerns: Despite pullback, still trading at premium PE ratio compared to sector average Entry Strategy The recent pullback from the $900 level creates a potential long-term entry opportunity as LLY tests key technical support around $670-680. Consider: Initiating a position at current levels (~$672) Adding on further weakness toward the $637 support level (if it occurs) Using the recent low as a stop-loss reference point With continued execution on its strategy and pipeline advancement, LLY has strong potential to resume its uptrend and deliver significant long-term growth.
NYSE:LLYLong
by ImmaculateTony
Eli Lilly (LLY) – Pharma Giant at a Key Price LevelHi, Eli Lilly & Co. is one of the world’s largest pharmaceutical companies, founded in 1876 and headquartered in Indianapolis. It operates in over 125 countries and is best known for blockbuster treatments in diabetes, obesity, oncology, and immunology. Recent growth has been driven largely by its GLP-1 class drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound, which have quickly become industry leaders in the weight-loss and diabetes markets. Recent Fundamentals (Q2 2025) Revenue: $15.56 B (+38% YoY) - EPS: $6.31 (beat expectations) - Mounjaro sales: $5.2 B - Zepbound sales: $3.38 B - Full-year guidance: Revenue $60–62 B, EPS $21.75–$23.00 - Margins: Gross margin ~82.6%, net margin ~25.9% - Profitability: ROE ~75.5%, ROIC ~29.6% While fundamentals remain strong, the recent Phase III data for the oral weight-loss pill orforglipron came in below expectations, sparking a ~14% drop, the stock’s steepest one-day decline in decades. Analysts have since trimmed long-term sales forecasts for this product. From a valuation perspective, the stock trades at a premium (~41× P/E, ~10.7× P/S), leaving little room for major disappointments. Technicals Technically speaking, the price has arrived in the zone where I’ve been patiently waiting to share it as an idea. This is a good area from where to start building positions if you’re interested. There are quite a few technical confluence factors aligning here, but be ready to grab it also around $500 if the market offers it. Let that be your guide: - If you’re not willing to hold long-term, don’t touch it. - If you’re not willing to buy more at lower prices, don’t touch it. Good luck, Vaido
NYSE:LLYLong
by VaidoVeek
LLY Is Overbought ---$615 Put Play**💊 LLY WEEKLY TRADE IDEA — BEARISH PRESSURE BUILDING** 📉 **Sentiment:** Strong bearish lean (70% confidence) — low RSI, high volume distribution. 📊 **Institutional Flow:** 1.7x weekly volume, puts stacking near key strikes. ⚠ **Risk:** Gamma risk + oversold → expect high volatility. **🛠 Setup:** * **Direction:** PUT (Short bias) * **Strike:** \$615 * **Expiry:** 2025-08-15 * **Entry:** \$2.20 – \$2.40 * **PT:** \$3.30 (50-100% gain target) * **SL:** \$1.20 (\~40-50% loss cap) 📌 **Why?** * Daily RSI \~20, Weekly RSI \~33 → both falling * Institutional selling pattern confirmed * Bearish volume + neutral C/P ratio tilt 💡 *Timing is key — oversold = possible dead-cat bounce before breakdown to \$605 support.*
NYSE:LLYShort
by quantsignals
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