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NASDAQ at Record Highs after US CPI report, but can it last?In today’s video, we break down the major market moves triggered by the July US CPI report. Headline CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month—right in line with expectations and a slowdown from the previous month. Year-over-year, headline inflation came in at 2.7%, just under the 2.8% forecast, while Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM (matching forecasts) but was a bit hotter at 3.1% YoY (vs. 3.0% expected). These “not as bad as feared” inflation numbers kept hopes alive for a September Fed rate cut, pushing the odds of a cut to 96%. Markets responded strongly: the NASDAQ 100 closed at a record high, just shy of the 24K handle, with broad gains in tech and communication stocks, as traders bet on a more dovish Fed. We also cover the technical setup for the NASDAQ 100 and key risk factors heading into the second part of August. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:NAS100Long
by ThinkMarkets
NAS100 At Major Resistance - Breakout or Reversal?NAS100 Technical Analysis: 🚀 At Major Resistance - Breakout or Reversal? 📉 Asset: NAS100 (NASDAQ 100 CFD) Analysis Date: September 5, 2025 Current Closing Price: 23,639.8 (as of 12:59 AM UTC+4) Timeframes Analyzed: 1H, 4H, D, W Executive Summary & Market Outlook 🧐 The NAS100 is at a critical technical juncture, testing a formidable resistance zone between 23,600 and 23,800. 📊 The index is in a clear long-term bullish trend but shows signs of short-term exhaustion after a powerful rally. This is a classic "make-or-break" level. A decisive breakout above 23,800 could ignite a new leg up towards 24,500, while a rejection here may trigger a significant corrective pullback towards 22,800. This analysis provides a roadmap for both intraday traders 🎯 and swing traders 📈. Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis 🔍 1. Trend Analysis (Daily & 4-Hour Chart): Primary Trend: 🟢 Bullish. Price is above all major Daily Moving Averages (200, 100, 50 EMA), which are aligned bullishly. Short-Term Trend: 🟡 Bullish but Overextended. The rally has been near-vertical, suggesting the market is ripe for a pause or pullback. 2. Key Chart Patterns & Theories: Resistance Confluence Zone 🧱: The current price is battling a massive resistance cluster. This zone includes: A prior major swing high (Price Action Resistance). The 127.2% and 161.8% Fibonacci extension levels from the last significant correction. A potential Bullish Cypher pattern's Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ). Elliott Wave Theory 🌊: The rally from the last major low is best counted as a powerful Impulse Wave. We are likely in the final stages of Wave 5 or a complex Wave 3 extension. This implies that while the trend is up, a larger Wave (4) correction is increasingly probable. Typical retracement targets for a Wave 4 are the 38.2% Fib level near 22,800. Ichimoku Cloud (H4/D1) ☁️: Price is trading high above the Cloud on daily charts, confirming the strong bullish trend. The Lagging Span (Chikou Span) is also well above price, indicating sustained buying pressure. However, such extreme extensions often precede consolidation. Gann Theory ⏳: The 23,600-23,800 area represents a key mathematical resistance zone. A daily close above this could open the path to the next Gann angle target. 3. Critical Support & Resistance Levels: Resistance (R1): 23,800 - 24,000 (Key Psychological & Technical Ceiling) 🚨 Resistance (R2): 24,500 (Projected Target) Current Closing Price: ~23,640 Support (S1): 23,200 - 23,400 (Immediate Support & 21-period EMA) ✅ Support (S2): 22,800 - 23,000 (Major Support - 38.2% Fib & Prior Breakout Zone) 🛡️ Support (S3): 22,200 (200-Day EMA & 50% Fib) 4. Indicator Consensus: RSI (14-period on 4H/D): Reading is above 70 on both timeframes, signaling severely overbought conditions. 📛 This is a warning against chasing longs at these highs. A bearish divergence is forming on the 4H chart, hinting at weakening momentum. Bollinger Bands (4H) 📏: Price is consistently riding the upper band, a sign of a strong trend. However, a move back towards the middle band (20-period SMA) is a common next step after such extensions. Moving Averages: The bullish alignment (EMA8 > EMA21 > EMA50) is intact. The EMA 21 on the 4H chart (~23,400) is critical immediate support. Volume & VWAP: Volume has been declining on the most recent push higher, a potential bearish divergence 📉 suggesting a lack of conviction at these highs. Trading Strategy & Forecast 🎯 A. Intraday Trading Strategy (5M - 1H Charts): Bearish Scenario (Rejection Play) ⬇️: This is the preferred setup given overbought conditions. Look for bearish reversal candlestick patterns (e.g., Bearish Engulfing, Evening Star 🌟) at or near the 23,800 resistance. Entry: On confirmation of rejection. Stop Loss: Tight, above 23,850. Target: 23,400 (TP1), 23,200 (TP2). Bullish Scenario (Breakout Play) ⬆️: If buyers overpower and we get a strong 1H close above 23,850, a momentum long could be viable. Entry: On a small pullback to ~23,780 (re-test as support) or on the breakout. Stop Loss: Below 23,650. Target: 24,200 (TP1), 24,500 (TP2). B. Swing Trading Strategy (4H - D Charts): Strategy: WAIT FOR A PULLBACK. The risk/reward for new long entries at this resistance is poor. 🚫 The optimal strategy is to wait for a healthy correction to key support zones to add long positions. Ideal Long Zones: 23,200 (shallow pullback) or 22,800 (deeper correction). ✅ Bearish Risk: A daily close below 22,800 would signal a much deeper correction is likely underway, potentially targeting 22,200. Risk Management & Conclusion ⚠️ Key Risk Events: High-impact US economic data (e.g., NFP, CPI) and Fed policy announcements are paramount. 🔥 Any hawkish surprises could be the catalyst for a sharp tech-led selloff. Position Sizing: The potential for increased volatility demands conservative risk management. Never risk more than 1-2% of your account on a single trade. Conclusion: The NAS100 is bullish but exhausted. 🥴 The current resistance zone is a high-risk area for new longs and a high-probability area for a pullback. 🎯 Swing traders should be patient for a better entry. Intraday traders can play the range between 23,200 and 23,800 until a decisive break occurs. The overall trend remains up, but a period of consolidation or correction is the most probable outcome in the near term. Overall Bias: 🟢 Bullish above 22,800 | 🟡 Neutral/Bearish below 23,200 For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade) I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors. Sincerely, Shunya.Trade Website: shunya dot trade Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by sunya
NAS100 UPDATE - Potential 4 Pre-Post NFPDear Friends in Trading, 1) NFP tomorrow - Be Safe. 2) TIP - Post NFP Mondays: (Applies to all instruments - Forex, Indices & Metals) -----"ASIA + LONDON SESSION's PRICE ACTION IS BIG AND OPEN MOST OF THE TIME"----- 3) Keynotes: a) As PA progresses, I add updates/notes on this post. b) I do not say or even think I am right most of the time. c) But I do share what I see freely. -----"YOU ARE MOST WELCOME TO FOLLOW THE PROGRESS WITH ME"----- Let me know if anything is unclear? I sincerely hope my point of view offers a valued insight. Thank you for taking the time study my analysis.
TRADENATION:USTEC
by ANROC
3
Potential Buy Zone for NAS100Trade what you see and not what you feel. This is what I see. There is a demand zone on 15 min which has not been balanced. There is also another demand zone below that one on 1hr time frame that has also not been balanced. Will wait for the market to retrace to the demand zone and if I get proper indications of going long on smaller TF I will take the long. I have a feeling though that the market might go to the lower demand zone because there is a potential formation of a H&S pattern forming. So, stop losses will be tight if I enter on the 15 min demand zone.
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by alincume0007
1
NSDQ100 Bullish breakout support at 23500Key Developments US labor market revisions: BLS cut payrolls by -911k through March 2025, implying weaker labor conditions than thought. Markets took it in stride, with rate cut pricing steady at ~27bps for next week (-1.5bps on day). Fed outlook: Treasury Secretary Bessent urged recalibration of policy, echoing Trump’s criticism of “choking off growth.” Governor Lisa Cook remains in her role after a court blocked Trump’s attempt to remove her, ensuring full FOMC participation next week. Geopolitics: Middle East: Israel’s strike on Hamas leaders in Qatar drew criticism from Trump, seen as not aiding conflict resolution. Europe: Poland shot down drones from a Russian strike on Ukraine, escalating tensions with Moscow. Market Takeaways Payroll downgrades confirm a weaker labor backdrop but don’t materially change Fed cut expectations for September. Political noise around the Fed could fuel uncertainty, but markets are treating it as background risk. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated but had limited immediate market impact. Conclusion for Nasdaq 100 The Nasdaq 100 is likely to remain steady to slightly supported: Weaker labor revisions reduce concerns about overheating, reinforcing the Fed cut narrative. Limited geopolitical spillover into tech equities so far. Bond yields and Fed pricing, not payroll revisions, remain the key driver. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 24200 Resistance Level 2: 24380 Resistance Level 3: 24600 Support Level 1: 23500 Support Level 2: 23320 Support Level 3: 23125 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:USTEC
by TradeNation
USD100 BULLISH CONTINUATION IDEA 📈 Bullish Continuation Idea 🔹 Technical Analysis Trend Bias: All higher timeframes confirm a bullish continuation trend. Key Structure: On the H4 timeframe, price formed a higher low (HL) at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, supporting the bullish bias. Profit Target: First TP at the -27% Fibonacci extension (24,000 – 24,070 zone). Liquidity Targets: Markets typically hunt liquidity (daily highs/lows, swing points, equal highs/lows). The prior swing high on the daily provides additional confluence for this target. Lower Timeframe Structure: H1 shows bullish HH/HL structure. Price fully mitigated the recent H1 Fair Value Gap (FVG) and swept the recent data low, possibly offering a strong entry zone for continuation upwards. 🔹 Fundamental Analysis While N100 often moves independently of news, key events can act as catalysts: Wednesday 09/10/2025 – Core PPI (Low-Moderate Impact): If PPI prints lower as expected, this should fuel bullish momentum. No major rallies or crashes expected, but could provide continuation fuel. Thursday 09/11/2025 – CPI Y/Y (High-Moderate Impact): Historically, N100 reacts inversely to bullish CPI prints. Based on past CPI releases (08/12/25, 07/15/25, 06/11/25, 02/12/24), expect a possible short-term dip before resuming the trend. Best opportunities may come after NY open liquidity grabs. ⚠️ Risk Disclaimer This is not financial advice – just my personal analysis. If we all knew exactly where the market was going, we’d all be millionaires. Trade cautiously and always prioritize risk management. Happy Trading ❤️
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by kcordero
QQQ Concentration RiskSince mid-2023, the gap has steadily widened - it doesn’t mean an immediate reversal, but it does mean QQQ is very top-heavy (the NDX/NDXE ratio tends to oscillate in bands; rather than, trend infinitely higher) Strong NDX vs weak NDXE suggests a fragile rally If mega-caps stumble, the whole index could pull back hard However, if breadth improves (NDXE starts outperforming), that would strengthen the rally base Current leadership concentration favors short-term bullish momentum (45%), but the rally is fragile, if mega-caps falter, the downside could open quickly (30%) 1. FAANG + NVDA/TSLA Leadership Persists Ratio keeps rising (NDX > NDXE) Leaders continue to attract flows (AI, cloud, semis). QQQ pushes to new highs with narrower breadth Rally vulnerable if just one or two leaders stumble (NVDA, AAPL, etc.) +5–10% upside near term if momentum holds 2. Pause & Rotation (25%) Ratio stalls near highs Equal-weight (NDXE) starts to catch up Breadth improves modestly, but QQQ as a whole chops sideways QQQ consolidates in a 5%–7% band 3. Breadth Divergence Resolves Lower (30%) Concentration risk unwinds Leaders mean-revert (profit-taking, earnings disappointments) NDX underperforms NDXE, ratio falls from highs QQQ could correct −10% or more The ratio at 2.88 is stretched relative to historical balance A “reasonable” medium-term range would be closer to 2.3–2.5 (15% to 25% on percentage scale) Implies QQQ pause/correction while NDXE holds steady or outperforms, or broadening participation (small/mid Nasdaq catching up)
NASDAQ:NDX
by pakoumal
Beyond the Chart – NAS100 Through Technicals & Fundamentals⚖️ CAPITALCOM:US100 Fundamental Impact today • The core driver is the US CPI (inflation) + Unemployment Claims at 3:30 pm. • Expect increased volatility on NAS100 around that time: • ✅ Lower CPI + weaker jobs → Bullish NAS100 (rate cut hopes). • ❌ Higher CPI + strong jobs → Bearish NAS100 (higher for longer Fed). 1. Bearish Continuation (Main Scenario) • Rejection from the bearish FVG + BB zone → downside continuation. • Targeting: • 23,750 short-term liquidity sweep. • Then 23,700–23,650 (discount FVG). • Extended target: 23,540 (major discount PD array). 2. Deeper Retracement / Liquidity Sweep (Alternative Scenario) • Price might push slightly above the bearish FVG / BB zone (~23,900–23,930) to sweep late shorts. • Then reversal down, same targets as scenario 1. 3. Bullish Recovery (Less Likely for Now) • If price reclaims above 23,950–24,000, structure shifts bullish again. • Potential revisit of 24,100+ liquidity above the HH. ⸻ ⚖️ Bias • For now, bias is bearish unless 23,950–24,000 is broken with strength. • Volume histogram also shows selling momentum increasing after the rejection.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by iamtradingdon
NASDAQ NAS100 at a Crossroads: Riding Nvidias Surge with CautionThe immediate reaction to Nvidia's stellar earnings has been decidedly bullish, propelling the NASDAQ higher. We saw a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" event where the "news" was so powerful it triggered a "fear of missing out" (FOMO) rally with a healthy correction on Friday. In the next one to two weeks, the near-term bias is bullish, but with extreme caution. The market has received the fundamental "all-clear" it was waiting for from its most important company. However, the index is now technically overextended and sentiment is euphoric, making it vulnerable to a short-term pullback or consolidation. The primary trend, however, remains bullish IMO. 1. The Catalyst: Nvidia Earnings Nvidia didn't just beat expectations; it shattered them and raised future guidance, validating the entire AI investment thesis. Revenue & EPS: Significant beats on both the top and bottom lines. Guidance: Q2 revenue guidance of ~$28B was vastly higher than analyst estimates of ~$26.6B, demonstrating unprecedented demand for its Blackwell and Hopper architecture chips. Data Center: Revenue of $22.6B, up 427% year-over-year, is the core of the story. This shows that AI infrastructure spending is not slowing; it's accelerating. Stock Split: The announcement of a 10-for-1 stock split adds a psychological boost for retail investors, improving accessibility and reinforcing bullish sentiment. Analyst Interpretation: This wasn't just a quarterly report; it was a fundamental confirmation that the AI revolution has tangible, massive earnings power. It alleviated fears that the AI trade was a bubble. For the NASDAQ, which is market-cap weighted and heavily influenced by NVDA, this was rocket fuel. 2. Technical Analysis (One-Day Timeframe Post-Earnings) Price Action: The NASDAQ gapped up powerfully at the open, breaking cleanly above its previous consolidation range. This was a strong bullish signal. Volume: The rally was accompanied by massive volume, confirming broad institutional participation. This wasn't a low-volume grind; it was a conviction move. 3. Macro & Fundamental Backdrop Interest Rates: The market is currently pricing in a higher-for-longer stance from the Fed. However, recent economic data (PMIs, jobless claims) has shown slight signs of softening, which keeps hopes alive for a potential rate cut later in the year. A stable, non-accelerating rate environment is acceptable for tech stocks, especially those like Nvidia with explosive earnings growth that outweighs rate concerns. Geopolitics: While always a risk (U.S.-China tensions, elections), the market has largely shrugged off these concerns for now, choosing to focus on the stellar corporate fundamentals. Market Breadth: A key watch-out. The rally has been narrow, led primarily by the "Magnificent 7" (now perhaps the "Fab 1" - Nvidia). For the rally to be sustainable, we need to see broader participation from other sectors and smaller-cap stocks within the NASDAQ. 4. Likely Outcome for the Next 1-2 Weeks: Bullish with a Caveat Bullish Scenario (60% Probability): The momentum from Nvidia is likely to carry the NASDAQ higher in the very near term. We could see a continued "melt-up" towards 17,400-17,500 as underinvested funds are forced to chase performance and add equity exposure. Any dip will likely be shallow and bought aggressively, with the 17,000 level holding firm. Consolidation/Pullback Scenario (35% Probability): This is the most likely healthy outcome. After such a massive, emotion-driven surge, the market is likely to need a period of digestion. We could see the NASDAQ chop sideways for a week or two to work off the overbought conditions. This would reset the momentum indicators and allow the market to build a new base for the next leg higher. This is not a bearish signal; it is a strengthening signal. Bearish Reversal Scenario (5% Probability): A sharp reversal below the 17,000 support level and a fill of the earnings gap (~16,900) would be a significant warning. This would likely require a new, negative macro catalyst (e.g., unexpectedly hot inflation data, a major geopolitical escalation) that forcefully changes the interest rate narrative. Trading & Investment Implication For Bulls / Existing Longs: Hold positions. Consider taking partial profits on extreme strength, but avoid selling your entire position. The trend is your friend. Use any pullback to the 17,000 support as a potential buying opportunity. For New Entrants: Chasing the green spike is high-risk. Be patient. Wait for the inevitable pullback or period of consolidation to establish a position. The risk/reward is poor on the day after a massive gap up. For Bears: Fighting this tape is exceptionally dangerous. The fundamental news from NVDA is a game-changer for the index. Shorting based solely on overbought conditions is a quick path to losses. Final Analyst Call: The next week is likely bullish with high volatility, potentially extending gains. However, the following week is highly susceptible to a consolidation or pullback as the initial euphoria settles. The overall trajectory for the next two weeks is cautiously bullish, with the understanding that a 2-4% pullback is a normal and healthy part of a strong uptrend. The burden of proof is now on the bears to prove they can wrestle control back from a market that just received the best possible news from its most important constituent. Not financial advice, this is just my opinion.
FX:NAS100Long
by fxtraderanthony
NAS100 - Stock Market, Waiting for Inflation Index?!The index is above EMA200 and EMA50 on the one-hour timeframe and is in its long-term ascending channel. If the drawn upward trend line is maintained, we can expect Nasdaq to reach its previous ATH. In case of its valid breakdown, its downward path will be smoothed to the specified demand zone, where it can be bought with appropriate risk-reward. U.S. equities closed lower on Friday after a volatile session, capping off a turbulent week in negative territory. Initially, weaker-than-expected employment data fueled optimism that the Federal Reserve would move toward further rate cuts. However, growing fears of an economic recession quickly overshadowed that optimism and pushed the indexes into the red. Following the labor market report, expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting are now virtually certain. The main question, however, is how fast subsequent cuts might unfold. Some analysts have even floated the possibility of a surprise 50-basis-point cut on September 17. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, speaking at the Jackson Hole symposium, stressed that risks stemming from labor market weakness may now outweigh inflation risks—a factor that could justify a shift in the central bank’s policy approach. Nick Timiraos, a prominent Wall Street Journal reporter closely tracking Fed policy, noted that the sharp slowdown in job growth over the summer has likely cemented the Fed’s decision to cut rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming meeting. Still, he made no explicit mention of a 50-basis-point move. While markets have raised the probability of that scenario to 14%, Timiraos believes the main focus remains on a more moderate reduction. He also observed that the latest jobs report has deepened uncertainty over the pace and scope of cuts beyond September—a challenge that policymakers and markets will grapple with in the months ahead. Barclays Bank now projects the Fed will lower rates three times in 2025—each time by 25 basis points in September, October, and December. This is an upward revision from its earlier forecast of just two cuts in September and December. President Donald Trump once again lashed out at Fed policy in a post on his social media platform, writing: “Jerome Powell should have cut rates long ago. But as usual, he has acted too late.” Meanwhile, mounting concerns over ballooning fiscal deficits—not only in the U.S. but also in countries like Japan, France, and the U.K.—have placed added pressure on long-dated bonds. The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury briefly climbed to a one-and-a-half-month high last week. At the same time, the Treasury Department plans to issue new three-year, ten-year, and thirty-year securities next week, an event that could further fuel volatility in the bond market. The coming week will be light in terms of data volume, yet the few scheduled releases will carry significant weight as inflation once again takes center stage. On Wednesday, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for August will be published. Forecasts suggest both the headline and core readings will show sharp declines compared to July. On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) will hold its policy meeting, where markets currently expect the deposit rate to remain unchanged at 2.15%. Shortly afterward, traders will turn their attention to the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August, along with weekly jobless claims data—closely monitored for signs of potential weakness in the U.S. labor market. Finally, on Friday, the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be released. This survey has been a particularly important gauge of inflation expectations this year, offering deeper insights into how U.S. households perceive price trends. The PPI, which reflects changes in goods prices at the factory gate, often provides more forward-looking signals than the CPI. As shown in July’s data, any unexpected surge in August’s numbers could temper investors’ optimism about the pace of rate cuts. For now, the impact of tariffs on goods prices appears limited, while the Fed’s main concern remains the risk of renewed inflationary pressures in the services sector. According to the Cleveland Fed’s Nowcast model, headline inflation rose 0.1% in August to reach an annualized rate of 2.8%, while core inflation held steady at 3.1%.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by Ali_PSND
The #1 Trading Skill: Controlling Your RiskThe secret to trading isn’t winning every trade - it’s about managing risk. Risk management and trading. This is one of the most important topics if you’re serious about becoming a profitable trader. Risk management is the foundation of trading. If you don’t manage your risk you won’t make it. Simple as that. No one can predict whether the market will go up or down with 100% certainty. That’s why as traders we can never fully control how much profit we make. But we can control one thing. How much we lose. And that brings us to the first step in risk management. Understanding the power of the risk-reward ratio. When choosing a trading strategy that suits you one of the factors to consider is its risk-reward ratio. Every strategy has its own balance between risk and potential reward and understanding this is key. This is where we need to put our math brains to work. What is the risk-reward ratio? Simply put it tells us how much we stand to gain for every unit of risk we take. It’s a straightforward but powerful metric that helps determine whether a strategy can be profitable over time. Let’s break it down with a simple example: • If your strategy has a 1:1 risk-reward ratio it means that for every $100 you risk you aim to make $100 in profit. Win or lose the potential gain and loss are the same. • If your strategy has a 1:2 risk-reward ratio you risk losing $100, but if the trade goes your way you make $200. This means your potential reward is twice as big as your risk. • If your strategy has a 1:5 risk-reward ratio for every $100 you risk you have the chance to make $500. Here the possible reward is much greater than the risk you take. Your risk-reward ratio has a big impact on your overall profitability. But the risk-reward ratio alone doesn’t tell the full story. To know if a strategy is truly profitable you also need to consider another key factor: Win rate. Your win rate is the percentage of trades that end in profit. This is where math and probabilities come into play. • If your strategy has a 50% win rate it means that out of 10 trades 5 are winners and 5 are losers. • If your win rate is 40% 4 out of 10 trades will be profitable. The key to long-term success is finding the right balance between risk-reward and win rate. • If you have a 1:1 risk-reward ratio and a 40% win rate your strategy won’t be profitable. Over 10 trades you win 4 times and lose 6 times. Since you win and lose the same amount per trade your losses will be bigger than your gains in the long run. • But with a 1:5 risk-reward ratio and the same 40% win rate your strategy becomes profitable. That’s because your winning trades make far more than you lose on your losing trades. The takeaway? There’s no such thing as a right or wrong strategy only ones that are profitable or unprofitable. The key is to find a strategy that gives you a mathematical edge over time.
FPMARKETS:US100Education
by kathrineswp
Bullish bounce off 61.8% Fibonacci support?US100 is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 23,289.88 Why we like it: There is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 22,983.03 Why we like it: There is a multi-swing low support. Take profit: 23,729.56 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:NAS100Long
by VantageMarkets
WHY I THINK NASDAQ WOULD CONTINUE ITS BUYS Big tech is still crushing earnings, AI plays are heating up, and the semis? Still running. Every dip lately is getting bought up fast, and that tells me one thing: smart money is still in the game. We’ve got a potential rate cut on the horizon, inflation’s cooling off, and the market is pricing in more upside. Structure-wise, we’re seeing higher lows and breakouts across key levels. Unless something major shakes the market, I’m staying bullish here. Momentum, fundamentals, and sentiment are all lining up. Buyers aren’t done — not even close.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Kvngslade
1
US100 Trading Plan ¦ Layering Strategy + Macro Sentiment Drivers🚀 NASDAQ100 / US100 Index – Thief Money Heist Plan 🎭 📌 Plan: Bullish Swing / Scalping Setup Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s), here’s the heist-style breakdown for US100 🔑: 🏴‍☠️ Entry Style (Thief Layering Strategy) Using layered limit orders for flexibility & precision: • 23200.0 • 23250.0 • 23300.0 • 23350.0 (You may increase limit layers based on your strategy & risk appetite) 📉 Moving Average Pullback Entry Plan • Buy entries on pullbacks to the Fibo level 382 Triangular Moving average zone. • Look for bullish candles confirming the bounce from these MAs. • This offers better risk-to-reward by catching momentum on retracements instead of chasing highs. ❓ Why This Works? • Moving averages often act as dynamic support/resistance in trending markets. • Institutional traders & algos track them heavily, making them high-probability zones. • Combining with layering entries = higher flexibility + reduced risk of mistimed single entry. 🛡️ Stop Loss (Protect the Vault) • Thief SL: @23000.0 • Reminder: Adjust your SL based on your own strategy & risk tolerance. 🎯 Target (Escape Zone) • Overbought + Trap Zone ahead! • Escape target: @23750.0 • Note: Don’t rely only on my TP — secure profits at your own pace and risk. 📊 US100 Index CFD Real-Time Data Sep 03 📈 Daily Change: +133.47 (+0.57%) 📅 Monthly Performance: +0.76% 📆 Yearly Performance: +23.48% 😰😊 Fear & Greed Index 📊 Current Reading: 53/100 (Neutral) 🧐 Interpretation: Market sentiment is balanced, showing neither extreme fear nor greed. Investors are cautious but not panicked. 🧠 Retail vs. Institutional Sentiment 👥 Retail Traders: Moderately bullish (55% Long, 45% Short) 🏦 Institutional Traders: Slightly cautious (50% Long, 50% Short) 🔑 Key Drivers: Mixed signals from manufacturing data and upcoming labor market reports. 📉📈 Fundamental & Macro Score 📊 Macro Score: 6/10 Manufacturing PMI (48.7) still in contraction but improving. Labor market data (JOLTS) awaited for clarity. ⚡ Volatility Score: 5/10 (Moderate) VIX near average levels, indicating stable expectations. 💧 Liquidity Score: 7/10 Strong volume and breadth in large-cap tech stocks. 🐂🐻 Overall Market Outlook ✅ Bullish (Long): 60% Supported by strong yearly gains and resilience in big tech. ⚠️ Bearish (Short): 40% Concerns over manufacturing contraction and inflation pressures. 💡 Key Takeaways 📈 US100 is trending mildly positive today (+0.57%). 😐 Sentiment is neutral—no extreme fear or greed. 📊 Macro data hints at cautious optimism but watch for upcoming labor reports. 🐂 Overall bias leans slightly bullish for long-term holders. 📊 Related Pairs to Watch FOREXCOM:SPX500 TVC:DJI TVC:VIX NASDAQ:NDX FX:USDOLLAR ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” #NASDAQ100 #US100 #NDX #SPX500 #DJI #TradingView #SwingTrade #ScalpTrading #LayeringStrategy #MarketAnalysis
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by The-Thief