Chapter One: What is the Adam Theory?
The Adam Theory is about achieving profits in the market... the principles of profiting in any free market worldwide. The Adam Theory guides you to observe the market in a unique way and instructs you to engage in market operations using a relatively distinctive method. It is the purest, simplest, and easiest method to apply for profiting in market operations... using only the information revealed by the market itself.
The role of the Adam Theory goes beyond this. It also informs traders of the most likely direction the market will take in the future. By employing the predictive techniques of the Adam Theory, traders can estimate and clearly see the path ahead. Then, traders can ask themselves, "Do I want to enter the market?" If the answer is affirmative, they should enter immediately.
The Adam Theory can be applied to any time frame. That is, it can be used on monthly, weekly, daily, or intraday charts. It is a theory based on visual reactions, and a simple candlestick chart can make it very clear without the need for mathematics.
Now, using candlestick charts, return to the question, "Do you want to trade?" If the answer is affirmative, the trader enters the market. The next day, the trader applies the Adam Theory again to discern the most likely path of the market and asks, "Do I still want to trade?" Eventually, the answer will be "no," and the Adam Theory will guide you to exit the market.
When performing the above tasks, the Adam Theory only observes the information revealed by the market itself... never making arbitrary judgments. The Adam Theory is the simplest and purest concept... yet most traders overlook it.
As J. Welles Wilder Jr. stated:
"The Adam Theory is concerned with this question: What are the fundamental principles for profiting in the market?
Or, in other words, how does the Adam Theory complete the following sentence: To succeed in the market, we must ______?
Are there common principles that traders, whether intentionally or unintentionally, apply to win in the market?"
"Please note that theories about how markets operate and develop are different from profiting in the market. The Adam Theory does not primarily discuss the market or how it operates but rather the secret to succeeding in the market. This is a distinction.
The greater the secret, the simpler it is—this is a reasonable statement. This is why the Adam Theory is often overlooked: because it is too simple. The human mind is extremely fond of complexity and difficulty; it likes to challenge itself. As a result, the mind often fails to grasp simple things, asking, 'Is this a great truth? How can it be so absurdly simple?'
The Adam Theory addresses the fundamental truth of things, discussing only what happens. It does not seem novel or complex, but that is its strength. Please note that the Adam Theory does not discuss what should happen or what is impressive. It focuses on one thing only—what truly, factually happens. Everything is simple and not at all difficult to understand.
When thinking about the Adam Theory, the only concern is one thing—what happens? Anything else may be interesting, but it is not important."
Trade ideas
APPLE: Long Trade Explained
APPLE
- Classic bullish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Buy APPLE
Entry - 268.53
Stop - 266.89
Take - 271.30
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support
Global Trade: Role of WTO, IMF, and World Bank1. The World Trade Organization (WTO): Guardian of Global Trade Rules
The WTO, established in 1995 as the successor to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), is the central body overseeing international trade rules. Its main purpose is to ensure that trade flows as smoothly, predictably, and freely as possible among member nations.
a. Promoting Free and Fair Trade
The WTO works to eliminate trade barriers such as tariffs, quotas, and subsidies that distort competition. It encourages member countries to open up their markets and engage in fair competition. By doing so, it promotes economic efficiency, consumer choice, and technological advancement.
b. Trade Negotiations
The organization provides a platform where member nations negotiate trade agreements. These negotiations cover a wide range of areas including goods, services, intellectual property, and agriculture. One of the most notable negotiation rounds was the Doha Development Round, which aimed to address trade imbalances between developed and developing countries.
c. Dispute Settlement Mechanism
A major strength of the WTO lies in its dispute settlement body (DSB). When countries violate trade rules or engage in unfair practices, affected members can file complaints. The DSB then provides a legal framework to resolve disputes through consultations, panels, and appeals, preventing trade conflicts from escalating into political tensions.
d. Monitoring and Transparency
The WTO also monitors trade policies of member nations to ensure transparency. Regular reviews under the Trade Policy Review Mechanism (TPRM) help identify potential violations and encourage best practices.
e. Support for Developing Nations
Recognizing the challenges faced by developing and least-developed countries (LDCs), the WTO offers technical assistance and capacity-building programs. These initiatives help such nations integrate better into the global trading system.
In essence, the WTO acts as the referee of global trade—setting rules, resolving conflicts, and ensuring that trade remains fair and transparent.
2. The International Monetary Fund (IMF): Stabilizing Global Economies
While the WTO focuses on trade rules, the IMF ensures that global financial systems remain stable enough to support trade. Created in 1944 during the Bretton Woods Conference, the IMF’s primary goal is to maintain international monetary cooperation and financial stability.
a. Promoting Exchange Rate Stability
Stable exchange rates are vital for smooth global trade. Fluctuations in currency values can create uncertainty for exporters and importers. The IMF monitors exchange rate policies of its members and offers advice to prevent competitive devaluations that can harm global trade flows.
b. Providing Financial Assistance
Countries sometimes face balance of payments crises—when they cannot pay for imports or service foreign debt. The IMF provides short- and medium-term loans to help stabilize their economies. These loans often come with reform conditions aimed at improving fiscal discipline, reducing inflation, and restoring investor confidence.
c. Policy Advice and Surveillance
Through its Article IV consultations, the IMF regularly reviews member countries’ economic policies. This surveillance helps detect potential risks early and guides countries toward sound economic management. For example, the IMF has played a crucial role in guiding nations through financial crises such as the Asian Financial Crisis (1997) and the Global Financial Crisis (2008).
d. Capacity Development
The IMF assists countries in building strong institutions for monetary policy, taxation, and financial regulation. Through technical training and policy advice, it strengthens countries’ ability to manage economic shocks and engage more effectively in global trade.
e. Supporting Global Financial Cooperation
The IMF serves as a forum for global monetary cooperation. It brings together 190+ member countries to discuss international financial stability, thereby preventing unilateral actions that could disrupt global markets.
In short, the IMF acts as the world’s financial watchdog—ensuring that countries maintain macroeconomic stability, which in turn supports smoother and more predictable global trade.
3. The World Bank: Financing Development for Trade Growth
The World Bank, also established in 1944, complements the IMF by focusing on long-term economic development and poverty reduction. It plays a key role in helping countries build the infrastructure and institutions needed for effective participation in global trade.
a. Financing Development Projects
The World Bank provides low-interest loans, grants, and credits to developing countries for projects in infrastructure, education, healthcare, energy, and agriculture. Infrastructure such as ports, roads, and telecommunications directly supports trade by improving connectivity and reducing logistics costs.
b. Encouraging Private Investment
Through its affiliate, the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the World Bank promotes private sector development by offering investment and advisory services. This helps attract foreign investment, create jobs, and strengthen export capabilities.
c. Policy Advice and Institutional Reform
The World Bank offers expertise in designing policies that promote trade competitiveness, good governance, and efficient resource allocation. It also encourages structural reforms—such as liberalizing trade policies and improving business environments—to help nations integrate into global markets.
d. Poverty Reduction and Inclusive Growth
Trade alone cannot guarantee equitable growth. The World Bank ensures that the benefits of globalization reach vulnerable populations by funding programs in education, healthcare, and social protection. These initiatives build human capital, making countries more resilient and competitive in international trade.
e. Global Partnerships and Knowledge Sharing
The World Bank also acts as a knowledge hub—sharing best practices and research on development and trade-related issues. Its global partnerships with regional banks, the WTO, and the IMF enhance coordination and ensure a holistic approach to economic development.
In essence, the World Bank provides the financial and developmental foundation upon which global trade can thrive.
4. Interconnected Roles: A Cooperative Framework
While the WTO, IMF, and World Bank have different mandates, they often work together to achieve common goals:
WTO sets and enforces trade rules.
IMF ensures monetary and financial stability.
World Bank promotes development and infrastructure for trade.
For example, during global crises—such as the 2008 financial collapse or the COVID-19 pandemic—these institutions coordinated efforts to support economies. The IMF provided liquidity and macroeconomic stability, the World Bank funded recovery and health initiatives, and the WTO advocated against protectionism to keep trade flowing.
5. Criticisms and Challenges
Despite their contributions, these institutions face criticism.
The WTO is often accused of favoring developed countries and being slow to reform trade rules that disadvantage poorer nations.
The IMF has been criticized for imposing strict austerity conditions on loans, which can harm social welfare.
The World Bank has faced backlash for funding projects with environmental or social consequences.
Moreover, rising protectionism, trade wars, and global inequality present new challenges that require these institutions to adapt and modernize their policies.
6. Conclusion
The WTO, IMF, and World Bank form the backbone of the global economic order. Together, they promote fair trade, financial stability, and sustainable development—key pillars of a prosperous global economy. While their roles differ—rule-making, stabilizing, and financing—they are interdependent and complementary.
As globalization continues to evolve, these institutions must work collectively to address new issues such as digital trade, climate change, and inequality. Their continued cooperation will determine not only the stability of international trade but also the economic well-being of nations across the world.
In summary, the WTO ensures fairness in trade, the IMF safeguards financial stability, and the World Bank empowers nations to grow—forming a triad that underpins global economic progress.
AAPL: Uptrend intact, but rich valuation—Is it worth the risk?AAPL: Uptrend intact, but rich valuation—Is it worth the risk?
Technical Analysis
1. AAPL is climbing within an ascending channel, forming series of higher swings with diverging multi-period EMAs, signaling a strong uptrend.
2. However, as price approaches the channel’s upper boundary, a pullback is possible, especially with a Bearish Divergence signal between the price and RSI. Any further upside may be limited in the near term.
3. If AAPL extends higher, resistance sits near 284.00 at the channel top.
4. If AAPL pulls back, the first key support is the previous resistance around 260.00 which will become support. A drop below the EMA200 would signal a bearish reversal.
Fundamental Analysis
Based on fundamentals following the Q3 performance release, Apple has several support factors, including:
5. Apple beat in Q3 FY25, with revenue of $102.47B (+8% y/y) and EPS of $1.85 (+13% y/y), beating analyst consensus, and diluted EPS came in at $1.85 (up 13% year-over-year, and above expectations).
6. Record services revenue and a 6% YoY rise in iPhone sales powered the quarter.
Guidance was upbeat, pointing to December-quarter sales of about 137.97 bln USD (+11% y/y), signaling firm demand for iPhone 17 and other products.
7. Shifting production beyond China, strong brand loyalty, and a growing services ecosystem are core long-term growth drivers, bolstering resilience against regulatory and supply-chain risks.
8. However, some analysts flagged the stock as “expensive” relative to historical valuation multiples (P/E ~36)
Analysis by: Krisada Yoonaisil, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
AAPL Pullback: 10-EMA Bounce with RS Line at New HighAnalysis:
▪ Price has pulled back to the 10-EMA, presenting a potential entry point.
▪ Closing range at 60%, indicating controlled consolidation rather than aggressive selling.
▪ Excellent relative strength compared to the broader market.
▪ Relative Strength (RS) Line has been hitting new highs consistently over the past several weeks, signaling outperformance and bullish momentum.
Trade Idea:
▪ Long Entry: Near current levels or on a bounce from 10-EMA.
▪ Stop Loss: Below recent low or 10-EMA for risk management.
▪ Target: Recent high at $277.
▪ Risk/Reward: Aim for 1:2 or better; monitor for volume confirmation.
APPLE First correction signals in 7 months start to emerge.Almost 1.5 month ago (September 19, see chart below), we gave a buy signal on Apple Inc. (AAPL), which recently hit our $273 Target:
This time we go back to our long-term perspective and view Apple on the 1W time-frame, as the Bullish Leg (green) since the April 07 bottom, is approaching the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 4-year Channel Up.
The previous Bullish Leg peaked just below the 1.236 Fibonacci extension, so we can't rule out one final push to round $285 but on the long-term, a technical pull-back is favored.
The 2023 Bullish Leg eventually corrected on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), hitting its 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at the same time. Even the smaller April - July 2024 Leg pulled-back to he 0.5 Fib.
All of those Channel Up tops have been also met with a 1W RSI break above the 70.00 oversold level, which is something that hasn't taken place yet. Similarly the 1W MACD hasn't started to reverse on the levels of most of previous tops.
In any case, we expect to see Apple hitting $236 at least on the long-term, which is its 0.382 Fib and marginally below the 1W MA50.
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Time to sell? Too much positive press. Sell in greed I’ve fully closed my long position on Apple after an extraordinary run, with the trade playing out exactly as predicted. Now, with the AI bubble inflating and no major new product launches expected, I see a strong case for a short position. Apple is likely to correct down to its support line at $210 and potentially to the 200 EMA at $228 over the next six months. Profit-taking is evident at these levels, and declining volume suggests that selling pressure will intensify. Watch for a break below $266.88 for confirmation; consider taking profits at the CME gap at $254—or hold on and see how far the decline goes.
Shipping, Freight, and Logistics in World Trade1. The Importance of Shipping in Global Trade
Shipping is the lifeline of international trade. Around 90% of world trade by volume is transported by sea, making maritime transport the most cost-effective and energy-efficient mode for moving large quantities of goods over long distances. Without global shipping, the modern economy would collapse—no country could sustain its industries or consumer demand without importing raw materials, energy, and manufactured products.
The shipping industry supports the global supply chain, linking developing nations that supply raw materials with developed economies that manufacture and consume finished goods. For instance, crude oil from the Middle East is transported to refineries in Asia and Europe, while electronics from East Asia are shipped to markets in North America and Africa. This interdependence underscores shipping’s role as the engine of globalization.
2. Understanding Freight in International Trade
Freight refers to the transportation of goods in bulk by various modes—sea, air, rail, or road. Freight services determine how products move from one point to another and how efficiently they reach their destinations. Freight is typically divided into three main categories:
Sea Freight – Used for large and heavy shipments, ideal for commodities such as oil, coal, grain, machinery, and vehicles. Containerization has revolutionized sea freight, enabling efficient and secure movement.
Air Freight – Offers the fastest mode of delivery, mainly for perishable or high-value items like electronics, pharmaceuticals, and luxury goods.
Land Freight (Rail and Road) – Connects ports to inland cities and neighboring countries, playing a vital role in regional trade and last-mile delivery.
Freight costs significantly affect product pricing and competitiveness in the global market. Efficient freight management reduces transportation costs and delivery times, making products more affordable and accessible.
3. The Role of Logistics in World Trade
Logistics refers to the planning, coordination, and management of the movement and storage of goods throughout the supply chain—from production to the final customer. It is the strategic process that integrates shipping and freight into a seamless operation.
Key elements of logistics include:
Transportation Management – Selecting the best mode of transport and optimizing routes.
Warehousing – Storing goods safely before they are distributed or sold.
Inventory Management – Ensuring supply meets demand without overstocking.
Customs Clearance – Handling documentation and compliance with international trade regulations.
Last-Mile Delivery – Delivering goods from distribution centers to consumers.
Modern logistics rely heavily on technology, including GPS tracking, warehouse automation, and data analytics, which provide real-time visibility and improve decision-making.
4. Evolution of Global Shipping and Logistics
The modern logistics industry has come a long way since the days of wooden ships and manual cargo handling. The container revolution in the 1950s, introduced by Malcolm McLean, transformed global trade. Standardized containers allowed goods to be loaded, shipped, and unloaded efficiently across ships, trains, and trucks, drastically reducing costs and time.
The digital revolution of the 21st century further enhanced logistics efficiency. Artificial intelligence, blockchain, and Internet of Things (IoT) technologies now streamline supply chains, track shipments in real time, and reduce human error. E-commerce giants like Amazon and Alibaba have set new standards in global logistics, emphasizing speed, reliability, and transparency.
5. Major Global Shipping Routes
World trade depends on critical maritime routes that connect producers and consumers. Some of the most vital shipping routes include:
The Suez Canal (Egypt): Links Europe and Asia via the Mediterranean and Red Seas.
The Panama Canal (Central America): Connects the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, crucial for trade between the Americas and Asia.
The Strait of Malacca (Southeast Asia): One of the busiest routes connecting the Indian and Pacific Oceans.
The English Channel and Gibraltar Strait: Important for European trade.
Disruptions in these routes—such as the Suez Canal blockage in 2021—can cause massive delays and losses across global supply chains, showing how fragile yet essential maritime networks are.
6. Key Players in Global Shipping and Logistics
Several major companies dominate international shipping and logistics:
Shipping Lines: Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, and COSCO handle millions of containers annually.
Freight Forwarders: DHL, FedEx, and Kuehne+Nagel provide end-to-end logistics solutions.
Port Operators: DP World, PSA International, and Hutchison Ports manage the world’s busiest ports.
Ports such as Shanghai, Singapore, Rotterdam, and Dubai’s Jebel Ali are global trade hubs, facilitating the import and export of goods worldwide.
7. Challenges Facing the Shipping and Logistics Industry
Despite its importance, the global shipping and logistics industry faces several challenges:
Supply Chain Disruptions: Events like the COVID-19 pandemic, wars, or natural disasters expose vulnerabilities in global supply chains.
Rising Fuel Costs: Shipping is heavily dependent on oil, and fluctuations in fuel prices directly affect freight rates.
Environmental Regulations: Pressure to reduce carbon emissions has forced the industry to invest in cleaner fuels and green technologies.
Port Congestion: Overcrowded ports lead to delays and increased costs, especially during peak trade periods.
Geopolitical Tensions: Trade wars and sanctions can reroute or restrict global shipping flows.
8. Green and Sustainable Shipping
Sustainability has become a key priority for the maritime industry. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set targets to reduce carbon emissions by 50% by 2050. Innovations such as LNG-powered ships, wind-assisted propulsion, and electric container vessels are being developed. Companies are also investing in carbon offset programs and exploring hydrogen fuel as a cleaner alternative.
Green logistics also focus on reducing waste, optimizing routes, and using eco-friendly packaging materials, contributing to a more sustainable global trade ecosystem.
9. The Future of Global Logistics
The future of logistics lies in automation, digitalization, and resilience. Emerging technologies are reshaping the industry:
Artificial Intelligence (AI): Enhances demand forecasting and route optimization.
Blockchain: Provides secure and transparent documentation for international transactions.
Autonomous Ships and Drones: Expected to revolutionize cargo transport and delivery.
Smart Ports: Use IoT sensors and data analytics to streamline operations.
Moreover, the rise of regional trade agreements and nearshoring (relocating production closer to consumers) is redefining supply chains to reduce risks and costs.
10. Conclusion
Shipping, freight, and logistics are the invisible engines powering world trade. They connect nations, support industries, and ensure that goods flow seamlessly across borders. As globalization deepens and technology advances, the logistics sector continues to evolve, balancing efficiency, sustainability, and resilience.
However, the challenges of environmental impact, geopolitical instability, and supply chain vulnerabilities demand innovation and cooperation. The future of global trade depends on a smarter, greener, and more adaptive logistics network—one capable of sustaining the demands of an interconnected world while protecting the planet for generations to come.
LightWhenever I prepare an idea to publish, well... I don't prepare.
As you may already have realized, my "blog" is not about trading / investment analysis. It is an attempt of mine to describe the indescribable. To smell the un-smellable (like a Greek song said).
My first ideas were an attempt of mine to reach out to others to spark conversation.I wasn't trying to give out any meaningful insight, because I had none. Now I think I have information to share, but Socrates would not agree with me, he is certain that he knows nothing . Since I cannot / don't want to be like Socrates, I will be like Diogenes the Cynic, I like him more... His views on philosophy and the world have grown on me.
And speaking of grown...
Apple has grown. From a seed of a Macintosh in a wooden box, into to a computer that would destroy Orwell's 1984, and then to a pair of smart glasses that would become the dystopia they tried to avoid.
Traders have also grown, most only in their age and appetite. The minds stood still.
And prices have grown higher and higher, but lighter than ever before.
Many analysts develop indicators in reverse. They want profit and shape indicators in a way to satisfy this growing appetite. The appetite of the man who isn't satisfied with the few, cannot be satisfied with the many. I have done this myself in the past.
There are two ways this chart is misleading.
First: Price on top of Bollinger Band can be interpreted as a "strong push", and at the same time an "overextended price". The indicator by itself is not misleading. It is us who don't analyze it properly.
Second: While this indicator calculates a statistical deviation (a pure mathematical idea), it fails in the act. Statistical deviation of trending prices cannot be calculated with ordinary moving averages. Don't listen to me, listen to the scientists from whom I found this, research it yourselves. A secondary problem is log scale.
A portion of traders, whom I call gamblers have grown light minded, it seems. They don't want prices to ... slide backward into oblivion, just as (we / they) have finally begun to see the light.
And just like gamblers, lighter my charts have apparently become. I simply try to shed some light into the darkness of technological / artificially untelligent societies.
Since my publications of indicators have been buried in the darkness, now it is time for them to shine, in simple terms.
And so, fixing analysis needs many steps. I show again the original statistical band:
Our data lives in a log-scaled world of increasing proportions, not increasing amounts. So, we re-shape our/Bollinger's mathematics to survive in this wild world of massive numbers. We then conclude to the log-scaled band:
One of the major problems however has not been fixed. Mathematicians dictate that classical moving averages don't apply in "Time Series Data" i.e. price history. Statistics don't work in trending data.
To fix this issue I have constructed a simplified MA model and applied it in multi-timeframe price data using PineScript.
The MA-Model is not a moving average (it doesn't describe an average price). It is instead one of the infinite trend-nullifying lines, from the base of which statistics are calculated. The band is the same 2-sigma area like the classic Bollinger.
What is the conclusion of this chaotic story, I hear you say...
It is either too simple or too complex.
The simple explanation is that history repeats itself.
Going back to 1998, we see the following:
Price divergences have become apparent from statistics. On the first arrow of each one, price reaches a 2-sigma deviation. On the second arrow of each divergence, price fails to make a second deviation jump, price instead returns to mean.
It is as if prices move in two steps. First they define a trend from a 2-sigma event (either bullish / bearish), then they follow up on the trend, while reverting to mean.
Now in 2025, in a larger timeframe, Apple seems to crave bitter sweets.
The 1998-2000 bubble is dwarfed from this massive chart.
Apple has done it. From the bottom of the world and a sub 1% market share, to conquer the world. It is the most loved brand. Sells the most popular smartphone. Designs the most powerful chips. Shapes future trends. And ironically, this very idea is typed on a modern Apple device.
You have reached the top, when everyone is sure that you will live forever.
And I mean everyone, including me who hypocritically votes against them.
The drop will come when a single person changes their mind.
Be wise. Be safe. Be aware.
-Breen
P.S. I will follow up this idea with some interesting charts on SPX in the following days.
AAPL QuantSignals V3 Weekly 2025-11-01AAPL QuantSignals V3 Weekly 2025-11-01
AAPL Weekly Signal | 2025-11-01
• Direction: NEUTRAL | Confidence: 57%
• Expiry: 2025-11-07 (6 days)
• Strike Focus: $267.50
• Entry Range: $0.15
• Target 1: $0.30
• Stop Loss: $0.08
• Weekly Momentum: NEUTRAL (-0.95% 1W)
• Flow Intel: Bullish (Low P/C Ratio) | PCR 0.48
• Max Pain: $267.50 (-0.9% vs spot)
• 🔴 HIGH RISK WARNING: Use only small position size due to lower confidence and high uncertainty.
⚖️ Compliance: Educational commentary for QS Premium members only. No financial advice.
🎯 TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Direction: BUY PUTS
Confidence: 57%
Conviction Level: LOW
🧠 ANALYSIS SUMMARY
Katy AI Signal: NEUTRAL with bearish bias (Target: $267.76, -0.84% from current) - Katy predicts downward movement to $267.76 with stop at $274.09, indicating slight bearish pressure despite neutral confidence rating.
Technical Analysis: Bearish EMA alignment confirms downtrend; RSI oversold at 29.9 suggests potential bounce risk; stock trading below recent highs with 2-week negative performance (-2.39%); key resistance at $274.09 (Katy's stop level), support near max pain at $267.50.
News Sentiment: Mixed - Wells Fargo raised price target to $300 (bullish), but general market news focuses on other tech stocks; lack of strong AAPL-specific catalysts creates uncertainty for weekly movement.
Options Flow: Contradictory signals - extremely bullish flow with PCR 0.48 (heavy call buying), but max pain at $267.50 favors downward pressure; unusual volume at $298 calls suggests institutional optimism beyond weekly timeframe.
Risk Level: HIGH - Conflicting signals between Katy's bearish target and bullish options flow create elevated uncertainty; low conviction due to neutral primary bias and weak composite score (-0.10).
💰 TRADE SETUP
Expiry Date: 2025-11-07 (6 days)
Recommended Strike: $267.50
Entry Price: $0.15 - $0.15 (Use exact mid price from table)
Target 1: $0.30
Image
QS Analyst
APP
— Yesterday at 8:45 PM
(100% gain from entry)
Target 2: $0.45 (200% gain from entry)
Stop Loss: $0.08 (47% loss from entry)
Position Size: 2% of portfolio (low conviction trade)
⚡ COMPETITIVE EDGE
Why This Trade: Aligns with Katy AI's specific price target ($267.76) near max pain level ($267.50), creating confluence despite contradictory flow signals.
Timing Advantage: Oversold RSI (29.9) may provide temporary bounce, but bearish weekly trend and EMA alignment support downward move into expiration.
Risk Mitigation: Tight stop loss and small position size account for low conviction; strike selection at max pain provides gravitational pull support.
🚨 IMPORTANT NOTES
CRITICAL WARNING: Strong conflict between Katy's bearish target and bullish options flow (PCR 0.48)
This is a low-conviction trade due to neutral composite bias and weak signal strength
Consider smaller position size or avoiding trade entirely if risk tolerance is low
Monitor for any AAPL-specific news catalysts that could override technical signals
Thursday/Friday gamma risk increases as expiration approaches
📊 TRADE DETAILS 📊
🎯 Instrument: AAPL
🔀 Direction: PUT (SHORT)
🎯 Strike: 267.50
💵 Entry Price: 0.15
🎯 Profit Target: 0.30
🛑 Stop Loss: 0.08
📅 Expiry: 2025-11-07
📏 Size: 2.0
📈 Confidence: 57%
⏰ Entry Timing: N/A
🕒 Signal Time: 2025-11-01 23:45:23 EDT
🔴 HIGH RISK WARNING: Use only small position size due to lower confidence and high uncertainty.
AAPLHow to become successful in forex and stock trading:
1.Master fundamentals and technical analysis.
2.Build and follow a solid trading plan.
3.Apply strict risk management (4–6% rule).
4.Stay disciplined—control fear and greed.
5.Record and analyze every trade.
6.Focus on high-quality setups only.
7.Diversify across assets and markets.
8.Keep evolving—study, adapt, and grow daily.
APPLE Set To Fall! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
APPLE looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 270.26 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 262.56
About Used Indicators:
The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long trade 📘 Trade Journal Entry
Symbol: AAPL (Apple Inc.)
Direction: Buy-Side Trade
Date: Fri 10 Oct 25
Time: 11:00 am
Session: LND to NY Session AM
Timeframe: 1 Hour
🔹 Trade Details
Metric Value
Entry 248.43
Profit Level (TP) 278.00 (+11.88%)
Stop Level (SL) 243.56 (–1.98%)
Risk–Reward (RR) 6.0 R
🔸 Technical Context
Structure:
Price broke out from an extended accumulation zone with confirmation from a BOS (Break of Structure) and Demand Zone Retest on the 15-minute and 1-hour timeframes.
The move aligns with a strong fair value gap fill and retest of the order block around 244–245, which acted as a springboard for the next impulsive leg.
Fibonacci Expansion:
1.618 projection → 261.30 (short-term target)
2.618 projection → 267.60 (intermediate)
3.618 projection → 274.00 (high-probability swing)
4.236 projection → 277.92 (extended TP)
Volume Confirmation:
Volume spikes visible at the breakout candle reinforce institutional participation, marking a clear transition from consolidation to markup phase.
🔹 Narrative & Bias
Apple continues to exhibit buyside momentum after consolidating above the September accumulation range. The breaker block re-entry at 245 aligned with fib 0.618 retracement and strong volume demand, confirming bullish continuation.
Current structure mirrors prior accumulation-distribution cycles seen before major upside runs.
Macro Context:
Tech sector rotation in line with AI & earnings optimism.
Broader equity market stability encouraging risk-on positioning in mega-cap tech names.
Projection:
Price expected to extend toward 267–278 levels before the next major consolidation phase, with potential for partial take-profits near the 1.618 extension.
APPLE Next Buy Zone Apple has been one of the lagging stocks I’ve analyzed in previous posts, where I discussed its price action as a major underperformer compared to the broader indices and other large-cap stocks.
As a mega-cap company, Apple is undeniably one of the key drivers of both the index and the overall market. If Apple begins a correction, there’s a strong likelihood that the index itself will trade lower as a result.
Following the completion of a complex combination correction (W–X–Y–X–Z), where the final Z-wave forms a triangle, we can apply trend-based Fibonacci extensions to project the contractionary phases in the market based on prior structure. Since this is a corrective wave, once it completes, price action should rotate back into the broader uptrend, currently surpassing the previous high by roughly $17.
I also believe the Elliott Wave count here identifies the current structure as the top of Wave 3. The recent push into new highs appears to be a three-wave corrective structure (A–B–C), with the 1 to 1 trend-based Fibonacci extension suggesting an expansion target near $277 — potentially marking an earnings high and a “sell-the-news” opportunity or, at minimum, a take-profit zone.
If Apple starts to break down from current levels, I’d be closely watching for a move back toward the previous most-traded zone, shown as the blue Volume POC on the chart. This would align with Elliott Wave theory, which states that Wave 4 cannot overlap the high of Wave 1. Since the first correction in this structure appears to be a flat A–B–C, Wave 4 could potentially be deeper and more pronounced.
A pullback toward the $227 level would be particularly attractive to me as a long-term investment opportunity in Apple.
AAPL | Money will Rotate into this MEGA CAP | LONGApple, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and other varieties of related services. It operates through the following geographical segments: Americas, Europe, Greater China, Japan, and Rest of Asia Pacific. The Americas segment includes North and South America. The Europe segment consists of European countries, as well as India, the Middle East, and Africa. The Greater China segment comprises China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. The Rest of Asia Pacific segment includes Australia and Asian countries. Its products and services include iPhone, Mac, iPad, AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, AppleCare, iCloud, digital content stores, streaming, and licensing services. The company was founded by Steven Paul Jobs, Ronald Gerald Wayne, and Stephen G. Wozniak in April 1976 and is headquartered in Cupertino, CA.
Is APPLE $APPL ready and primed for a correction?Apple BSE:APPL had a great run so far in the past few weeks. It has also been running inside a channel which has pushing the price upwards. However, now it has just completed an extended W pattern. In fact 2 of them got completed exactly at the same level.
The current price level is something that needs to eb watched very closely. When W patterns complete, markets tend to have a correction. Market is still bullish and is still inside the channel so even if the correction comes, we will have to be careful with the shorts.
If the market stay bullish from this point above at least on daily/weekly basis then we have an upper FCP zone where it can reach possibly take a correction from there.
In all cases, we must remember to wait for confirmations and obviously manage the risk.
Natural Gas Rallies on Weak InventoriesNatural Gas surged up 6% today.
Inventories came out 74B vs 71B estimate.
Despite the weaker report the commodity still surged.
This is showing a great relative strength trade.
A bull flag could be primed for a breakout on the daily chart.
Nat gas equities are beginning to look cheap again.
AAPL Apple Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on AAPL:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of AAPL Apple prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 255usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-11-21,
for a premium of approximately $18.65.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
AAPL Bullish Breakout: Retest Buy Toward 282–286Apple (AAPL) is trending firmly higher on the 1D chart, with multiple break-of-structure pushes and price riding the upper Bollinger Band. The recent surge cleared resistance and printed a new high at 271.60, while the 20/60/120 MAs remain positively stacked and rising. Short-term momentum favors continuation, but a brief pause wouldn’t surprise given the extension.
My primary path is a buy-the-retest setup: a dip into the former ceiling turned demand at 260.00–264.00 holds, followed by a constructive bounce. If that plays out, I’m looking for a grind toward 278–280 first, then an extension into 282–286 as higher highs resume. Alternatively, strength through resistance is a momentum trigger— a daily close above 271.60 (aggressive >272.00) would validate a break-and-hold and open the same targets.
Invalidation is clean: a decisive daily close below 260.00 breaks the structure and risks a deeper pullback. Until then, the bias stays bullish; consider partial sizing on initial entries and add on confirmation to respect expanding volatility. Stops can sit just below 260.00 (around 258.00) for retest entries, or tucked under the breakout level if trading the close-above trigger.
This is a study, not financial advice. Manage risk and invalidations
AAPL in Wave ((5)) to New All-Time High as Nested PatternApple (AAPL) has surged to a new all-time high, extending an impulse wave that began from the April 2025 low. Wave ((4)) of this larger impulse concluded at $239.49, as clearly illustrated on the 45-minute chart. Now, wave ((5)) advances higher in the form of a nested impulse structure. Rising from the wave ((4)) base, wave (1) completed at $250.65 before wave (2) pulled back to $244.01. From there, the stock nested upward again, with wave 1 ending at $265.29 and wave 2 correcting to $255.43. Apple then extended further in wave 3, which itself unfolds as an impulse of lesser degree.
Within wave 3, wave ((i)) topped at $259.67, followed by a dip in wave ((ii)) to $257.55. Wave ((iii)) pushed higher to $271.41, and wave ((iv)) retraced to $267.11. Wave ((v)) of 3 should finish soon, leading to a pullback in wave 4 before the uptrend resumes with renewed strength.In the near term, the bullish outlook remains intact as long as the pivot low at $244.01 holds. Any dips are likely to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing sequences, setting the stage for continued upside. This Elliott Wave progression underscores persistent momentum, with nested impulses reinforcing the primary trend and positioning Apple for additional gains ahead.
A few important steps for creating robust and winning StrategiesAs the title says, I want to share knowledge & important insights into the best practices for creating robust, trustworthy and profitable trading Strategies here on TradingView.
These bits of information that my team I have gathered throughout the years and have managed to learn through mostly trial and error. Costly errors too .
Many of these points more professional traders know, however, there are some that are quite innovative for all levels of experience in my opinion. Please, feel free to correct me or add more in the comments.
There are a few strategic and tactical changes to our process that made a noticeable difference in the quality of Strategies and Indicators immediately.
Firstly and most importantly, we have all heard about it, but it is having the most data available. A good algorithm, when being built NEEDS to have as many market situations in its training data as possible. Choppy markets, uptrends, downtrends, fakeouts, manipulations - all of these are necessary for the strategy to learn the possible market conditions as much as possible and be prepared for trading on unknown data.
Many may have heard the phrase "History doesn't repeat itself but rhymes well" - you need to have the whole dictionary of price movements to be able to spot when it rhymes and act accordingly.
The TradingView Ultimate plan offers the most data in terms of historical candles and is best suited for creating robust strategies.
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Secondly, of course, robustness tests. Your algorithm can perform amazingly on training data, but start losing immediately in real time, even if you have trained it on decades of data.
These include Monte-carlo simulations to see best and worst scenarios during the training period. Tests also include the fundamentally important out-of-sample checks . For those who aren’t familiar - this means that you should separate data into training sets and testing sets. You should train your algorithm on some data, then perform a test on unknown to the optimization process data. It's common practice to separate data as 20% training / 20% unknown / 20% training etc. to build a data set that will show how your algorithm performs on unknown to it market movements. Out of sample tests are crucial and you can never trust a strategy that has not been through them.
Walk-forward simulations are similar - you train your algorithm on X amount of data and simulate real-time price feeds and monitor how it performs. You can use the Replay function of TradingView to do walk-forward tests!
When you are doing robustness tests, we have found that a stable strategy performs around 90% similarly in terms of win rate and Sortino ratio compared to training data. The higher the correlation between training performance and out of sample performance, the more risk you can allocate to this algorithm.
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Now lets move onto some more niche details. Markets don’t behave the same when they are trending downward and when they are trending upwards. We have found that separating parameters for optimization into two - for long and for short - independent of each other, has greatly improved performance and also stability.
Logically it is obvious when you look at market movements. In our case, with cryptocurrencies, there is a clear difference between the duration and intensity of “dumps” and “pumps”. This is normal, since the psychology of traders is different during bearish and bullish periods. Yes, introducing double the amount of parameters into an algorithm, once for long, once for short, can carry the risk of overfitting since the better the optimizer (manual or not), the better the values will be adjusted to fit training data. But if you apply the robustness tests mentioned above, you will find that performance is greatly increased by simply splitting trade logic between long and short. Same goes for indicators.
Some indicators are great for uptrends but not for downtrends. Why have conditions for short positions that include indicators that are great for longs but suck at shorting, when you can use ones that perform better in the given context?
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Moving on - while overfitting is the main worry when making an algorithm, underoptimization as a result of fear of overfitting is a big threat too . You need to find the right balance by using robustness tests. In the beginning, we had limited access to software to test our strategies out of sample and we found out that we were underoptimizing because we were scared of overfitting, while in reality we were just holding back the performance out of fear. Whats worse is we attributed the losses in live trading to what we thought was overfitting, while in reality we were handicapping the algorithm out of fear.
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Finally, and this relates to trading in general too, we put in place very strict rules and guidelines on what indicators to use in combination with others and what their parameter range is. We went right to theory and capped the values for each indicator to be within the predefined limits.
A simple example is MACD . Your optimizer might make a condition that includes MACD with a fast length of 200, slow length of 160 and signal length of 100. This may look amazing on backtesting and may work for a bit on live testing, but these values are FUNDAMENTALLY wrong (Investopedia, MACD). You must know what each indicator does and how it calculates its values. Having a fast length bigger than the slow one is completely backwards, but the results may show otherwise.
When you optimize any strategy, manually or with the help of a software, be mindful of the theory. Mathematical formulas don’t care about the indicator’s logic, only about the best combination of numbers to reach the goal you are optimizing for - be it % Return, Profit Factor or other.
Parabolic SAR is another one - you can optimize values like 0.267; 0.001; 0.7899 or the sort and have great performance on backtesting. This, however, is completely wrong when you look into the indicator and it’s default values (Investopedia, Parabolic SAR).
To prevent overfitting and ensure a stable profitability over time, make sure that all parameters are within their theoretical limits and constraints, ideally very close to their default values.
Thank you for reading this long essay and I hope that at least some of our experience will help you in the future. We have suffered greatly due to things like not following trading theory and leaving it all up to pure mathematical optimization, which is ignorant of the principles of the indicators. The separation between Long / Short logic was also an amazing instant improvement.
View the linked idea where we explain the psychology of risk management and suggest a few great ways to calculate and manage your risk when trading - just as important as the strategy itself!
What do you think? Do you use any of these methods; Or better ones?
Let us know in the comments.
Can AAPL Earnings Fuel Its Rally?Apple (AAPL) extended gains to a record high, briefly pushing its market capitalization past the USD 4 trillion mark as strong iPhone 17 demand and a broad tech rally buoyed sentiment. Early data from Counterpoint Research showed iPhone 17 sales outpacing the previous generation by 14% in the first 10 days across the US and China, underscoring resilient consumer demand despite higher price points. However, signs of moderating lead times and delayed AI feature rollouts may temper momentum ahead of Thursday’s earnings, where investors will focus on iPhone sustainability and progress in Apple’s AI strategy.
From a technical perspective, AAPL is approaching the resistance at 127.2% Fibonacci Extension at 275. A break above this level may prompt a further rise toward the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension at 290. Conversely, a retracement may prompt a retest of the support at 245.
By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness






















