Tesla (TSLA) Stock Price Rises Above $400Tesla (TSLA) Stock Price Rises Above $400
As the chart shows, Tesla (TSLA) stocks are displaying strong market momentum. In particular, the price:
→ is above the psychological level of $400;
→ has reached its highest levels since late January;
→ has gained around 25% since the beginning of September.
Why Is TSLA Rising?
The main news driving the price surge was a media report that Elon Musk had purchased $1 billion worth of Tesla stock. The market interpreted this as commitment and confidence in the company’s future from its founder, which sharply increased demand for the shares.
Other factors contributing to TSLA’s rise include:
→ Expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut to stimulate the economy. This makes growth stocks such as Tesla more attractive to investors.
→ Reduced tensions between Elon Musk and President Trump’s administration. This removes some of the political risks that had weighed on the stock.
Technical Analysis of TSLA Stock
In our August analysis of the TSLA chart, we:
→ noted that the price had broken through the upper boundary of a broad contracting triangle with its axis around $317;
→ suggested that a correction might follow after the rally in early August.
Since then:
→ the price made a minor pullback before reversing upwards (as shown by the arrow);
→ the bullish trend resumed, providing anchor points to construct a rising (blue) channel.
Thus, the chart confirms:
→ a shift in sentiment in favour of buyers;
→ an improving fundamental backdrop (as highlighted in the news) and growth prospects linked to robotaxis and other innovations.
From a bullish perspective, the breakout of $355 followed by accelerated growth points to strong demand.
From a bearish perspective:
→ the RSI indicator has spiked into overbought territory;
→ the price is near the upper boundary of the rising channel;
→ the seven-month high could prompt profit-taking by investors – already reflected in yesterday’s pullback.
Taking this into account, we could assume that while the long-term outlook remains optimistic, a correction is possible, for example:
→ towards the 50% retracement level of the A→B impulse;
→ into the price expansion zone (a bullish imbalance signal, as described by the Fair Value Gap pattern in the Smart Money Concept methodology).
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TSLA trade ideas
Is Tesla on it's way to $400+On July 29th I suggested that Tesla was about to break out to the upside (after fakeouts).
Then on Sep 4th I suggested that after a restest (of the breakout line), Tesla would begin its climb. This portion of the anticipated pattern now been confirmed.
One question now remains...will Tesla hit my T1 ($395 - $414).
What do you think? I'd like to know what the sentiment is out there. I'd like to hear your thoughts.
WXY structure with a double topTesla has been in a uptrend with a corrective structure WXY. I am not sure if the WXY is a part of wave 5 terminal structure or a B wave. However expecting a double top or 78.6 retrace to 425-430 range as a minimum. For this scenario, an impulsive upside move is expected within the next few weeks. However the price needs to move back into the channel next week as a first step.
Geopolitical Tensions & Trade Wars1. Understanding Geopolitical Tensions
Definition
Geopolitical tensions refer to conflicts or rivalries between nations that arise from differences in political systems, territorial claims, military strategies, or economic interests. These tensions often extend beyond diplomacy into military confrontations, sanctions, cyber warfare, and trade restrictions.
Key Drivers of Geopolitical Tensions
Territorial disputes – e.g., South China Sea, India-China border, Israel-Palestine conflict.
Resource competition – oil, natural gas, rare earth minerals, and even water supplies.
Ideological differences – democracy vs. authoritarianism, capitalism vs. socialism.
Technological dominance – battles over 5G, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence.
Strategic influence – the U.S. vs. China in Asia-Pacific, Russia vs. NATO in Eastern Europe.
Geopolitical tensions may not always escalate into war, but they often manifest as economic weapons, including tariffs, sanctions, and restrictions on trade.
2. What Are Trade Wars?
Definition
A trade war is an economic conflict between nations where countries impose tariffs, quotas, or other trade barriers against each other, often in retaliation. Instead of cooperating in the free exchange of goods and services, they use trade as a weapon to gain leverage.
Mechanisms of Trade Wars
Tariffs – taxes on imported goods (e.g., U.S. tariffs on Chinese steel).
Quotas – limits on the number of goods imported (e.g., Japan’s rice import restrictions).
Subsidies – financial aid to domestic industries, making exports cheaper.
Export controls – restricting key goods, like semiconductors or defense equipment.
Sanctions – blocking trade altogether with specific countries or entities.
Difference Between Trade Dispute and Trade War
A trade dispute is usually limited and negotiable (resolved via WTO).
A trade war escalates into repeated rounds of retaliatory measures, often causing collateral damage to global supply chains.
3. Historical Background of Trade Wars
Mercantilism in the 16th–18th centuries – European powers imposed heavy tariffs and colonized territories to control resources.
Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act (1930, USA) – raised tariffs on over 20,000 goods, worsening the Great Depression.
Cold War Trade Restrictions (1947–1991) – U.S. and Soviet blocs limited economic interaction, fueling technological and arms races.
Japan-U.S. Trade Tensions (1980s) – disputes over Japanese car and electronics exports to the U.S. led to tariffs and voluntary export restraints.
U.S.-China Trade War (2018–present) – the most significant modern trade war, involving hundreds of billions in tariffs, sanctions, and tech restrictions.
4. Causes of Trade Wars in the Modern Era
Economic Protectionism – shielding domestic industries from foreign competition.
National Security Concerns – restricting sensitive technologies like 5G, AI, and semiconductors.
Geopolitical Rivalry – economic weapons as part of larger power struggles (e.g., U.S. vs. China, Russia vs. NATO).
Unfair Trade Practices Allegations – accusations of currency manipulation, IP theft, or dumping.
Populism & Domestic Politics – leaders use trade wars to appeal to local voters by promising to "bring jobs back home."
5. Case Study: The U.S.-China Trade War
The U.S.-China trade war (2018–present) is the most important example of how geopolitical rivalry shapes global trade.
Phase 1 (2018): U.S. imposed tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese goods, citing unfair trade practices and intellectual property theft.
Retaliation: China imposed tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, especially soybeans, targeting American farmers.
Escalation: Tariffs expanded to cover $360+ billion worth of goods.
Technology Restrictions: U.S. banned Huawei and restricted semiconductor exports.
Phase 1 Agreement (2020): China promised to increase U.S. imports, but tensions remain unresolved.
Impact:
Global supply chains disrupted.
Rising inflation due to higher import costs.
Shift of manufacturing from China to Vietnam, India, and Mexico.
U.S. farmers and Chinese exporters both suffered losses.
6. Geopolitical Hotspots Affecting Trade
1. Russia-Ukraine War
Western sanctions cut Russia off from global finance (SWIFT ban, oil & gas restrictions).
Europe shifted away from Russian energy, sparking energy crises.
Global wheat and fertilizer exports disrupted, raising food inflation worldwide.
2. Middle East Conflicts
Oil is a geopolitical weapon—any conflict in the Persian Gulf impacts global crude prices.
OPEC+ decisions are often politically influenced, affecting both producers and consumers.
3. South China Sea
A vital shipping lane ($3.5 trillion in trade passes annually).
Territorial disputes between China and Southeast Asian nations raise risks of blockades.
4. Taiwan & Semiconductors
Taiwan produces over 60% of global semiconductors (TSMC).
Any conflict over Taiwan could paralyze global tech supply chains.
5. India-China Border & Indo-Pacific Rivalries
India bans Chinese apps and tightens investment rules.
Strengthening of Quad alliance (US, India, Japan, Australia) reshapes Asian trade.
7. Impact of Geopolitical Tensions & Trade Wars
1. On Global Economy
Slower global growth due to reduced trade flows.
Inflationary pressures from higher tariffs and supply disruptions.
Increased uncertainty reduces foreign direct investment (FDI).
2. On Businesses
Supply chain realignments (China+1 strategy).
Rising costs of raw materials and logistics.
Technology companies face export bans and restrictions.
3. On Consumers
Higher prices for imported goods (electronics, fuel, food).
Limited choices in the market.
4. On Financial Markets
Stock market volatility increases.
Commodity prices (oil, gold, wheat) spike during conflicts.
Currency fluctuations as investors seek safe havens (USD, gold, yen).
5. On Developing Nations
Export-dependent economies suffer as global demand falls.
Some benefit by replacing disrupted supply chains (e.g., Vietnam, India, Mexico).
8. The Role of International Institutions
World Trade Organization (WTO)
Provides a platform to resolve disputes.
However, its influence has declined due to U.S.-China disputes and non-compliance.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) & World Bank
Provide financial stability during crises.
Encourage open trade but have limited enforcement power.
Regional Trade Agreements
CPTPP, RCEP, EU, USMCA act as counterbalances to global tensions.
Countries diversify trade partnerships to reduce dependence on rivals.
9. Strategies to Manage Geopolitical Risks
Diversification of Supply Chains – "China+1" strategy by multinationals.
Hedging Against Commodity Risks – futures contracts for oil, wheat, etc.
Regionalization of Trade – building self-sufficient trade blocs.
Technology Independence – countries investing in local semiconductor and AI industries.
Diplomacy & Dialogue – ongoing talks via G20, BRICS, ASEAN, and other forums.
10. The Future of Geopolitical Tensions & Trade Wars
Rise of Economic Nationalism: Countries prioritizing local industries over globalization.
Technology Wars Intensify: AI, semiconductors, and green energy will be new battlegrounds.
Fragmentation of Global Trade: Shift from globalization to "regionalization" or "friend-shoring."
Energy Transition Risks: Conflicts over rare earth metals, lithium, and cobalt needed for batteries.
New Alliances: BRICS expansion, Belt & Road Initiative, and Indo-Pacific strategies will reshape global economic influence.
Conclusion
Geopolitical tensions and trade wars are not temporary disruptions but structural features of the modern global economy. While globalization created interdependence, it also exposed vulnerabilities. Trade wars, sanctions, and economic blockades have become powerful tools of foreign policy, often with far-reaching economic consequences.
For businesses and investors, the challenge lies in navigating uncertainty through diversification, resilience, and adaptation. For policymakers, the task is to strike a balance between protecting national interests and sustaining global cooperation.
Ultimately, the world may not return to the hyper-globalization era of the early 2000s. Instead, we are moving toward a multipolar trade system shaped by regional blocs, strategic rivalries, and technological competition. How nations manage these tensions will determine the stability and prosperity of the 21st-century global economy.
Tesla range locked until ~2030My bias on Tesla is obviously down as I think it is one of the biggest bubbles of our time. However the market doesn't think so, and because of this it Tesla has greatly outpaced it's growth rate accelerating returns by almost a decade.
I speculate there's still around 5 years left of sideways for Tesla before it's able to do anything. I would come up with your best options strategies for this range with a slight downward bias perhaps.
Good luck!
TSLA eyes on $409.56: Golden Genesis fib to hold "High Ground"TSLA has been surging based on various news.
Now retracing towards a Genesis fib at $409.56
Clean bounce would indicate very strong trend.
Golden Genesis fibs are important milestones.
High gravity fibs can capture price into orbit.
Expect consolidation around it then sling shot.
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Previous analysis that caught a PERFECT BOTTOM:
Hit BOOST and FOLLOW for more such PRECISE and TIMELY charts.
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Tesla - consolidation patternUsually, whenever the price gives a breakout, we will think the price will reverse or have a pullback. Sometimes the same trend will continue after a small consolidation. I am seeing similar type of consolidation here.
Buy above 390 with the stop loss of 387 for the targets 383, 396, and 399. We can expect resistance or some profit booking around 400.
Always do your analysis before taking any trade.
Tesla: New Alternative Scenario Emerges Tesla continues to face significant upward pressure, repeatedly testing resistance at $373.04. As a result, we have dropped our previous alternative scenario of an early sell-off in favor of a new upside alternative. We now see a 37% chance that the stock will break above the $373.04 resistance, forming an early top for beige wave alt.x above the next key level at $405.54. However, our primary expectation is that TSLA will first pull back into our green Target Zone between $273.11 and $231.66, where we anticipate the low of green wave . Thus, this range could present new short- to medium-term long entry opportunities to capitalize on the subsequently expected rally, which is likely to culminate in the regular wave x high above $405.54. Following this top, we expect the final sell-off phase within the broader corrective structure: wave y should drive price down into the beige Target Zone between $157.88 and $46.70, where we project the low of blue wave (II). This range could present attractive opportunities for longer-term long positions. For potential long trades—whether in the green or the beige zone—a stop set 1% below the lower boundary of the respective zone can help manage risk.
TSLA SELL AT $426! Retracement to $372 imminent TSLA was a perfect ascending bullish triangle, yes, I drew the Elliott Wave wrong but got the calls right at $300 ($339 first target) and bounce off support at $324.80 ish (separate post). Remember the $7500 EV credit expires soon so there will likely be a pull forward of purchases this quarter which could temporarily juice the stock. We could see all time highs but first we must retrace once target of $426 is reached.
TSLA 1H + GEX Game Plan for Tue, Sep 16TSLA Cooling After a Monster Run — Will 410 Hold or Is 430 Next? ⚡️
Market Structure (1-Hour View)
* Sharp run-up: TSLA ripped from mid-300s to a peak around 430 and is now consolidating in a broad rising channel.
* Trend support: Current pullback is testing a rising channel floor near 405–410.
* Momentum: MACD still in a bearish cross with fading histogram; Stoch RSI is climbing out of oversold — early sign of a potential rebound.
Key Levels to Watch
* Resistance: 410.8 (current pivot), 420.0–422.0, and 430.4 (recent high / gamma wall).
* Support: 402.2, 395.9, then deeper supports near 346.1 and 340.0 if momentum collapses.
GEX Read (Sep 16)
* Highest positive NETGEX / Call resistance: 430.4
* 2nd Call Wall: ~420–422 area.
* HVL / gamma pivot: 356–357.
* Put walls: 320 and 305.
* Options sentiment: Calls >100% (very call-heavy), IVR ~20, IVx ~65.9 — big bullish skew but with elevated implied volatility.
Implication:
* Dealers may keep TSLA pinned around 400–420 for balance.
* A strong reclaim of >420 with volume invites a retest of 430.4 and possibly higher.
* Lose 402 and a slide to 395–390 is possible.
Trade Scenarios
1) Bullish Continuation
* Trigger: 1H close >412–415 with uptick in volume.
* Entry: 414–415 on retest.
* Targets: 420 → 430.4.
* Stop: Below 408.
* Options: 420/430 call debit spread expiring this week.
2) Range Fade
* Trigger: Failure to clear 415 with repeated rejection wicks.
* Entry: 413–414 short.
* Targets: 402 → 395.9.
* Stop: Above 417.
* Options: 410P or 415/402 put spread for quick fade.
3) Deeper Pullback
* Trigger: Clear 1H break <402 with retest fail.
* Entry: 401–402 short.
* Targets: 395 → 390, with a stretch toward 356–357 (HVL) if heavy selling accelerates.
* Stop: Back above 406.
Options: 400/390 put spread for a measured pullback.
Scalping & Swing Notes
* First test of 410–412 will set the early tone; quick rejections there can produce a 5–10 point scalp.
* If we gap near 400, watch for a sweep into 395 then bounce back toward 410.
Risk & Management
* Keep sizing conservative: TSLA’s elevated IV means sharp intraday swings.
* Scale out partials at first target and tighten stops if momentum accelerates in your favor.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always trade with a plan and manage risk carefully.
TSLA Support & Resistance Lines for September Month 2025TSLA’s September map uses the same monthly bands. Expect faster moves and occasional overshoots; size accordingly.
30-minute for 2–3-day swings
Longs
Rejection at lower band: Buy back toward half-step; add on clean midline reclaim.
Acceptance + retest: Hold above a line and retest from the top → ride to next line.
Shorts (when price trades above lines)
Volatility fade: TSLA often overshoots the upper band. If a 30-min prints a wicky close back inside, short the fade.
- Targets: Nearest half-step, then midline.
- Stop: Above the overshoot high (give TSLA a bit of air).
UTAD-style failure: If TSLA holds above a band briefly but fails the retest (can’t sustain closes above, sellers reclaim), short on the first failed retest.
- Targets: Half-step → next line down.
- Invalidation: Clean 30-min close back above the failed line.
Management
Scale at each line; go flat if a 30-min close invalidates your level. Trail quickly after TP1—TSLA snaps.
1–3 hour for weekly swings
Bias
Acceptance above midline → continuation to the next band.
Rejection at upper band → path back to midline more likely.
Shorts
1–3h exhaustion above band: Bodies compress, momentum fades, then a close back inside → short toward the half-step/midline.
Break-and-fail sequence: Close above a band → lose it → retest from below fails → short continuation lower.
Risk: Stop just above the lost line; tighten on first target tag.
TSLA Technical Outlook – Symmetrical Triangle Breakout Watch🚗 TSLA Technical Outlook – Symmetrical Triangle Breakout Watch
Ticker: TSLA (Tesla, Inc.)
Timeframe: 30-minute candles
🔍 Current Setup
TSLA has been consolidating for months inside a large symmetrical triangle, marked by:
Descending resistance: from ~380 down to ~347.
Ascending support: from April lows near ~240, now rising toward ~320.
Current price: ~348, testing the upper boundary of the triangle.
This structure signals compression after a major downtrend, and the breakout direction will likely define TSLA’s next big move.
📊 Breakout Levels
🚀 Upside (Bullish Scenario)
Trigger: Break and close above 350–355.
Intermediate Targets:
370–380 → First resistance zone.
400–420 → Extension levels.
Measured Move Target: ~450+ (based on the triangle height projection).
🔻 Downside (Bearish Scenario)
Trigger: Failure at resistance and break below 320, confirmation under 310.
Intermediate Supports:
300 → Psychological level.
280–260 → Stronger support zone.
Measured Move Target: ~250 (triangle projection downward).
📈 Volume Analysis
Volume has been contracting steadily during the triangle’s formation.
A major volume spike will be key to confirming whichever direction TSLA chooses.
⚖️ Probability Bias
TSLA is at the make-or-break resistance zone (~350).
A breakout above 355 would strongly favor bulls, targeting 380 → 400+.
But a rejection here and break below 320 would shift momentum bearish, sending TSLA back toward 280–260.
✅ Takeaway
TSLA is at a critical inflection point inside a long-term triangle:
Bullish Break > 355: Targets 370 → 400 → 450+
Bearish Break < 320: Targets 300 → 280 → 250
Watch for volume-backed confirmation, as this move could define Tesla’s next multi-week trend.
Follow-through buying on TSLA?Following a one-sided 6.0% gain in Tesla’s share price on Thursday, this helped lift the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh records. As shown in the chart below, the TSLA Stock rallied through a 6M resistance level of US$360.03 to a high of US$368.99, levels which have not been seen since earlier this year.
Further buying could now be seen for the Stock towards the resistance between US$389.72 and US$383.09. However, before reaching said area, a pullback may occur, retesting US$360.03 as support, with a dip into 1M support from US$343.88 possible.
Written by the FP Markets Research Team
The Anatomy of a TSLA Retracement TradeBased on a detailed analysis of Tesla's recent price action, a compelling bearish thesis suggests that the stock is poised for a significant retracement. The current market structure indicates that the recent rally may be unsustainable, necessitating a retest of a critical support level to re-establish a more stable foundation.
The Bearish Hypothesis: Retracement to Trendline Support
The core thesis is that the price is set to retrace and test the integrity of the ascending diagonal support trendline. This is not an indication of a full trend reversal, but rather a high-probability correction. T
This corrective phase will likely see the price descend to the lower boundary of the channel. A retest of this key support trendline is a common and healthy technical pattern.
Trade: A short position could be considered upon a clear rejection at the recent highs or upon a decisive breakdown of a minor support level, with the primary profit target being the ascending diagonal support trendline.
TSLA Eyes $400 Breakout — Key Levels & Trade Plans for Sep.15Market Preview
* Macro backdrop: U.S. index futures are steady after a strong tech rally last week. Rates and the dollar remain stable, leaving room for growth stocks to extend gains.
* Sector tone: EV and AI-related momentum is strong, with Tesla leading on heavy volume and institutional call buying.
Technical Analysis – TSLA
Trend & Structure (1-Hour Chart)
* Price surged to $395–396 and is consolidating near the highs.
* Structure remains firmly bullish with higher highs/lows and a well-defined rising channel.
Key Levels
* Resistance: $396.6 (highest positive NETGEX / CALL Resistance), $405, and $420 as next upside targets.
* Support: $389.9 (near-term pivot), $368.8 (major breakout base), $347.5 (HVL zone).
Momentum & Indicators
* MACD on 1H is bullish and expanding, supporting continuation.
* Stoch RSI is near overbought, signaling possible brief consolidation or a minor pullback before another leg higher.
* Volume remains strong, showing solid institutional demand.
Options/GEX Insight
* Massive call positioning (≈98% call bias) with positive GEX layers up to $420 suggests market makers may support higher prices.
* IVR 17.4 and IVx avg 61.5 indicate elevated but manageable volatility.
Trade Scenarios for Sept 15
* Bullish Plan:
* Entry: Break/hold above $396.6 with volume.
* Targets: $405 → $420.
* Stop: Below $389.9.
* Defensive Plan (if rejection occurs):
* Entry: Loss of $389.9 with momentum shift.
* Targets: $368.8 → $347.5.
* Stop: Above $396.6.
Summary
Tesla heads into Monday with a strong bullish setup. Holding above $389.9 keeps momentum intact, while a breakout over $396.6 could trigger a run toward $405–420.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk before trading.
TSLA 1D Time frame Tesla (TSLA) Daily Snapshot
Current Price: $346.97
Change: +0.61% from the previous close
Intraday Range: Not specified
Trend: Bullish continuation
🔎 Key Levels
Resistance:
R1: $347.17 – $350.85 (short-term resistance zone)
R2: $360.56 – $362.90 (medium-term resistance zone)
Support:
S1: $324.94 – $330.14 (short-term support zone)
S2: $313.64 (trendline support)
S3: $302.62 (horizontal support)
📈 Technical Indicators
RSI (14): 57.10 — Neutral
MACD: 5.23 — Sell signal
Moving Averages:
5-day EMA: $339.84 — Buy
50-day SMA: $324.49 — Buy
200-day SMA: $330.33 — Buy
📌 Market Sentiment
Catalysts: Positive market sentiment, with TSLA outperforming key competitors in recent sessions.
Sector Performance: Tech sector showing strength, with TSLA leading gains among peers.
📅 Outlook
Bullish Scenario: A breakout above $347.17 could lead to a push toward $360.56–$362.90.
Bearish Scenario: A drop below $324.94–$330.14 may test support around $313.64.
Overall Bias: Moderately bullish, with positive momentum but facing near-term resistance.