Bearish reversal?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support which acts as an overlap support.
Pivot: 98.40
1st Support: 97.76
1st Resistance: 99.28
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DXY trade ideas
DXY: Bulls Are Winning! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break above the current local range around 98.871 will confirm the new direction upwards with the target being the next key level of 98.071 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
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DXY Is Still Bearish; Final Leg Of The Wedge Pattern?DXY Is Still Bearish, but it can be trading in final leg of ending diagonal a.k.a. wedge pattern from technical and Elliott wave perspective.
US Dollar Index – DXY made only a three-wave rise from the lows, which indicates for a correction within downtrend. So recovery can basically still be a fourth wave rally, just a bit deeper one that can still belong to an ending diagonal a.k.a. wedge pattern. Final wave “v” of 5 can be still missing, so be aware of a continuation lower within a new three-wave abc decline, especially if breaks below the lower side of the corrective channel near 97.70 level.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Analysis:The DXY is currently moving sideways in the short term, awaiting today's economic data, while maintaining a bearish bias in the long term. It has recently retested the 97.90 level as a nearby resistance area.
🔹 Bearish Scenario:
If the index resumes its decline and breaks below the 97.60 support level with confirmation, it may move toward testing the 97.20 area, which could act as a potential rebound zone.
🔹 Bullish Scenario:
If bullish momentum emerges and the price breaks above 97.90 with stability, the index may head toward the 98.13 level, followed by a retest of 98.50.
Dollar Index (DXY): Bearish Outlook Explained
US Dollar has a very bearish start of this week.
A violation of a key daily support yesterday leaves
another strong bearish clue.
With a high probability, the market will continue falling
and reach 97.2 support soon.
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DXY Analysis - Crucial to Track Overall Market Scenario The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading near 97.75, sitting just above the key 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at 97.78.
Current Price Action
Price action shows a bouncing attempt from a descending support zone, with immediate resistance seen at 98.13.
If rise higher, the index has further upside potential toward the 0.618 retracement at 98.33 considering momentum also holds.
Alternate Scenario
On the downside, 97.48 and 97.11 remain critical supports; a break below could invite deeper selling pressure.
Indicator Confirmation
Bollinger Bands are relatively narrow, indicating a potential volatility expansion, while the RSI at 34.17 suggests the dollar is approaching oversold territory, increasing chances of a rebound.
Data Interpretation
Today’s Initial Jobless Claims and PPI releases will be pivotal — stronger-than-expected data may trigger a bullish breakout, while weaker readings could see the index retest lower supports.
The Final Highlight
Traders should watch for intraday breakouts above 98.00 for long entries, or breakdowns below 97.48 for shorts, with data releases likely acting as the catalyst.
USD Support Test ContinuesThe US Dollar has had the kitchen sink thrown at it so far in August.
It was just a month ago after the DXY breakout following the CPI report that President Trump threatened to fire Jerome Powell. This brought a sell-off in the Dollar but, importantly, buyers showed up to hold a higher-low in the currency, above the low from the first day of Q3 trade.
The currency then went on to rally into the end of the month and July ended up as the strongest monthly outing for the USD since April of 2022, right around when the Fed was gearing up rate hikes in response to the inflation they had refused to address in 2021.
But so far in August, a different tone has shown as a massive revision to the headline NFP number for the prior two months drove concerns about weakness in the labor market. Yesterday's CPI report showed Core CPI jumping back above 3% with a 3.1% annualized print. This is well above the Fed's 2% target and also considering that the unemployment rate remained at the 4.2% expectation, there's the very real question, as illustrated by Powell at the last FOMC meeting, as to whether policy is too restrictive.
Nonetheless markets now have a widespread expectation for a rate cut in September followed by the possibility of two more into the end of the year. But, there's the question as to how long term rates will respond, as we saw last year when Treasury yields shot higher even as the Fed cut rates.
That has pertinence with the USD because it was when 10-year yields topped on January 13th of this year that DXY did, too.
Perhaps more interesting at the moment is just how aggressive rate cut expectations are and the fact that the USD, so far, hasn't been able to stage a deeper breakdown. Perhaps one reason for this draws back to counterparts. Because currencies are the base of the financial system the only way to value a currency - is with another currency. So, for the US Dollar especially, represented by a 'basket' of underlying currencies in DXY, to get further weakness we have to see some of those other currencies take on strength. And for the Euro which represents 57.6% of the DXY basket, EUR/USD has already been in a massive bullish trend for much of the year. The Japanese Yen is 13.6%, and as I looked at in the USD/JPY post, the pair remains supported above a structure of recent higher-lows.
For the USD, we have a couple of trendlines in-play at the moment. The long-term trendline connecting 2001 and 2020 swing highs, and also the shorter-term trendline taken from the July lows.
If looking for USD-weakness, I still remain partial towards GBP/USD and that bullish trend has really come back to life over the past couple of weeks. For USD-strength, I still lean towards EUR/USD and perhaps even USD/JPY, provided that fibonacci support structure remains respected. - js
Dollar Index Analysis (DXY)The Dollar Index is currently in a downward trend following the release of the CPI report yesterday.
🔻 Bearish Scenario:
The index may retest 97.90 before resuming its decline. A break below the 97.60 support level, with confirmation, could push the price toward the 97.20 area.
🔺 Bullish Scenario:
If bullish momentum emerges and the index breaks above 97.90 with a confirmed hold, it could retest the 98.50 level.
USD weakness unabating. The 'risk on' status quo remains so far this week, a US / CHINA 'kicking of the tariff can down the road' plus, following US CPI data, 'the market' still thinks a FED rate cut is coming in September. US weakness in particular is unabating.
So far this week I've missed the boat on USD short opportunities. And as tempting as it is to place a USD short right now, I find myself (as I very often do) in the scenario of 'waiting for a pullback' before feeling confident enough.
In the meantime, if the USD recovers Vs JPY (or CHF) I could find myself switching allegiance to a JPY short.
Please feel free to offer thoughts or questions:
DXY: Potential Reversal Zone as CPI Jobs Data Send Mixed SignalsThe US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released yesterday acted as a headwind for the dollar. Although core inflation rose to 3.1% year-over-year and 0.33% month-over-month—figures that are not ideal—they are not severe enough to overshadow the recent weakening in the jobs market. On the USD chart, the price is approaching a significant daily demand zone, which is anchored by a weekly demand area. This confluence could potentially serve as a turning point, offering a possible opportunity for the USD to rebound.
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DOLLAR INDEX SHORT TERM BEARISH?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is under short-term downward pressure following the July 2025 CPI data released on August 12, which showed a year-on-year inflation rate of 2.7%, slightly below the expected 2.8%, and a core CPI of 3.1%. This reinforces market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with an 80-90% probability, weakening the dollar’s yield appeal. Trading near 98.5, close to a three-year low, the DXY faces technical support at 97.8, with a potential drop to 96.37 if breached, while resistance lies at 99.6. Despite bearish sentiment driven by a dovish Fed outlook and tariff uncertainties, resilient US economic growth (2.7% in 2024) and higher Treasury yields (4.4%) compared to peers could support a dollar rebound if upcoming data, such as jobs or PCE inflation, surprises hawkishly. Over the next 1-3 months, the DXY is likely to consolidate between 97.5 and 100, with risks tilted toward weakness unless offset by stronger economic indicators or geopolitical tensions boosting safe-haven demand.
Currently we are at a short-term support and if broken could be a trigger for short expansion.
What's your thoughts?
Potential bearish reversal?US Dollar (USDX) has rejected off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 98.40
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 99.94
Why we like it:
There is a swing high resistance.
Take profit: 96.92
Why we like it:
There is a swing low support 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
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Potential Dollar Reversal The US Dollar has broken the 12hr trendline and has reversed after the retest. We can now see the price formed (and broken) the reversal wedge. Price is now coming to retest the Wedge pattern along with an Ascending line making it a potential area for the reversal. I'm expecting this potential move to play out in the London session
Bearish breakout?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot and a breakout could lead the price to dropt othe 1st support.
Pivot: 97.97
1st Support: 97.18
1st Resistance: 98.73
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.