A long DXYA possible buy-side movement on the DXY, as the Jackson Hole symposium starts. Let's see how the markets react.
DXY trade ideas
DXY - market structure - by SERADXY - market structure - by SERA, with only 3 tradesx , EURUUSD , GBPUSD, and DXY. with trade managment and risk amnagmnet we become consistent no matter what
DXY ready to drop ?DXY trade setup for today :
Before we look at potential entry in this pair first let’s look at multiple timeframe analysis in this market.
Monthly: 100.24 Monthly resistance price has got rejection strongly from the top
Weekly: Bearish engulfed formation with strong liquidity grab
Daily: A sharp rejection with liquidity grab from the resistance
Entry timeframe 4H : Upon retest of the order block, market has got rejected and potentially breaking out of the market structure to continue to drop to support level.
Possible trade recommendation : Bearish entry with SL above sessions high
DXY potential for bullish recoveryIf the dollar index succeeds in forming a new higher low in the EMA 20 zone, we can expect a new bullish rally back around the 99.00 level.
DXY Overall Bias is BullishThis is currently my daily TF outlook for DXY. I will be observing that daily demand zone and using it to invalidate my bullish bias should it get violated. But as long as I am seeing Higher highs and Higher Lows being created on H1 and H4 TF, I remain bullish overall.
"DXY Projects Bullish Momentum Toward 99.000 on Demand WedgeThe DXY market is gradually projecting a bullish push, supported by demand wedges, with potential momentum carrying it toward the 99.000 level. Traders should monitor demand reactions closely for confirmation of sustained strength. follow for more insights ,comment and boost idea .
DXY STILL BULLISH?Bias still holds. price mitigated on OB below first entry sweeping liq.
Now capitalising on imbalance and OB
US Dollar (DXY), the importance of Jackson Hole this weekThe Jackson Hole Economic Symposium organized by the Kansas City Federal Reserve is the dominant fundamental factor this week. This event takes place every August and is considered the major monetary event before the end of the summer vacations. It brings together the heads of the major central banks and has one highlight: the press conference given by the Chairman of the FED. This year's press conference will take place on Friday August 22.
1) Jerome Powell's press conference this Friday at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium will be decisive for the US dollar's end-of-summer trend on Forex
Jerome Powell's press conference on Friday August 22 is eagerly awaited, as he is expected to outline the FED's planned monetary policy path between now and the end of the year. Let's not forget that the federal funds rate has not fallen since December 2024, and that the US labor market is beginning to show signs of weakness. But the PCE inflation rate is moving closer to the 3% threshold than to 2%, and Jerome Powell has so far been intransigent on the inflation target.
No FED pivot? Technical pivot? Real FED pivot? The FED will have to make one of these three choices, and Powell could provide further details at this Friday's press conference.
2) Jerome Powell's press conference will have a very strong impact on the FED's monetary policy expectations, notably on the probability of a rate cut at the time of the monetary policy decision on Wednesday September 17
This press conference will have a direct impact on the FED's monetary choice expectations at the time of the monetary policy decision on Wednesday September 17. According to the CME FED Watch tool, the probability of a cut in the US federal funds rate currently exceeds 80%. But this may be too optimistic an expectation, given the resilience of inflation in the US.
Last year in Jackson Hole, Powell spelled out what the FED was planning to do for the end of the year, so this August 2025, the market is once again hoping for clarification on what the FED will do on Wednesday September 17.
3) The US Dollar (DXY) has stabilized on the Foreign Exchange (FX) market, but at this stage has not validated a medium-term bullish reversal pattern. The DXY remains bearish as long as it holds below 100/101 resistance
No FED pivot? FED technical pivot? Real FED pivot? The FED's monetary choices will have a decisive impact on the year-end trend of the US dollar (DXY) on the forex market. At present, the latter has stabilized on major technical support, but has not validated a bullish reversal technical configuration.
The chart below shows the weekly Japanese candlesticks for the US dollar (DXY).
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Short-term trend reversal?It seems that the Dollar Index is reversing its trend to reach the 99 level, but it faces strong resistance along the way. If it manages to break through, that would confirm the move toward 99.
DXY - Silent, Structure in Compression, Destiny in Expansion. ⊣
⟁ DXY / U.S. Dollar Currency Index - TVC - (CHART: 1D) - (Aug 19, 2025).
◇ Analysis Price: 98.035.
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⨀ I. Temporal Axis - Strategic Interval - (1D):
✴️ Note: The DXY (TVC) does not provide native volume data; therefore, flow-based indicators (OBV, MFI) are substituted by ADX (14) to quantify trend strength.
▦ EMA9 - $98.139:
∴ The current price ($98.035) is positioned below the EMA9 - ($98.139), affirming short-term pressure from sellers;
∴ The slope of the EMA9 is flat to slightly downward, indicating the loss of bullish traction in the most immediate timeframe;
∴ The EMA9 is located beneath both the EMA21 and the EMA50, confirming the presence of a “bearish stacking” alignment.
✴️ Conclusion: The micro-trend remains subdued under short-term resistance. The immediate ceiling is defined at ~98.14, and failure to close above reinforces continuous seller control.
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▦ EMA21 - $98.221:
∴ The price remains below the EMA21, which represents tactical control by sellers in the intermediate horizon;
∴ The fact that EMA9 < EMA21 demonstrates that rebound attempts will likely fail beneath 98.22;
∴ The EMA21 is in direct confluence with the Bollinger Band midline, magnifying the importance of 98.22 as a structural pivot.
✴️ Conclusion: The 98.22 zone is the primary tactical battleground; daily closure above would reduce immediate bearish pressure and open short-term relief potential.
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▦ EMA50 - $98.477:
∴ The price resides below EMA50, and EMA21 is positioned below EMA50, both confirming the persistence of a downward-leaning intermediate trend;
∴ The EMA50 itself is sloping gently downward, acting as a supply zone between $98.45 / $98.50;
∴ Rejections have occurred repeatedly below the $98.5 region, validating this level as the medium-term structural ceiling.
✴️ Conclusion: The $98.45 / $98.50 range is the second barrier; only a sustained close above this threshold neutralizes the existing bearish framework.
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▦ BB (21, 2) - $96.815 / $98.221 / $99.628:
∴ Current price oscillates around the midline ($98.22) but is positioned slightly below, keeping price action inside the lower quadrant of the bands;
∴ Bandwidth is approximately 2.81 points (~2.9% of the midline), which signals suppressed volatility and relative compression;
∴ The upper band at $99.63 and the lower band at $96.82 establish the immediate operational box.
✴️ Conclusion: A compression regime dominates; the probability of false breakouts increases as long as ADX remains below threshold levels.
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▦ RSI (21, 9) - RSI 47.75 / Signal 48.17:
∴ The RSI remains below the neutral 50 line, maintaining a neutral-to-bearish bias;
∴ RSI is positioned beneath its signal line, reinforcing waning momentum;
∴ No oversold or overbought extremes are present, leaving ample room for mean-reversion moves in either direction;
∴ The RSI lost its bullish inclination after the early-August peak, revealing that bullish momentum has dissipated.
✴️ Conclusion: Relative strength is fragile and biased downward; pressure persists, though without signs of exhaustion.
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▦ MACD (9, 21, 9) - MACD Line: −0.085 | Signal: −0.082 | Spread ≈ −0.003:
∴ Both MACD line and Signal line remain below zero, sustaining the negative macro momentum regime;
∴ The spread between MACD and Signal line is marginally negative (−0.003), illustrating momentum compression and indecision;
∴ The histogram bars are shallow, suggesting the likelihood of sideways “chop” until a decisive expansion occurs;
∴ No evidence yet of either bullish or bearish acceleration; instead, momentum is locked in equilibrium.
✴️ Conclusion: Residual bearish momentum persists, but without traction. A valid directional impulse requires expansion of the spread.
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▦ ADX (14) - 13.22:
∴ ADX at 13.22 is significantly below the 20 threshold, confirming a non-trending market;
∴ Under low volatility and low ADX conditions, breakouts tend to fail or reverse, producing whipsaw environments;
∴ Without ADX expansion, directional signals from EMAs, RSI, or MACD lack confirmation.
✴️ Conclusion: The trend is weak; consolidation dominates. Breakouts require ADX above 20 for validation.
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🜎 Strategic Insight - Technical Oracle:
∴ The structural configuration of the moving averages (Price < EMA9 < EMA21 < EMA50) defines a layered bearish stacking, emphasizing that control remains under sellers until the price successfully reclaims successive thresholds;
∴ The triple resistance crown ($98.14 / $98.22 / $98.50) represents the immediate fortress overhead. Until pierced, rallies remain corrective rather than structural;
∴ The Bollinger Band compression in combination with ADX = 13.22 reflects a regime of latent instability: volatility is contracted, energy is being stored, and the market is poised for a sharp directional move once equilibrium breaks;
∴ Mapping of levels:
Support zones: $97.94 (recent intraday floor) -> $96.82 (lower Bollinger band);
Resistance zones: $98.22 (BB midline + EMA21 pivot) -> $98.45 / $98.50 (EMA50 zone) -> $99.63 (BB upper).
∴ Trigger mechanics (Daily):
Bullish relief scenario: A daily close above $98.22 exposes a test of $98.45 / $98.50. A confirmed structural shift requires closure above $98.50 with simultaneous ADX rising above 20, projecting extension toward $98.80 -> $99.63;
Bearish continuation scenario: A breakdown below $97.94 expands the downside toward $96.82. Acceleration requires concurrent Bollinger Band expansion + ADX increase, validating momentum.
∴ Cross-asset implication (BTC/USD): A DXY trapped beneath $98.50 with ADX under 18 provides tactical relief for risk assets - (Bitcoin, equities). Conversely, a reclaim above $98.50 coupled with rising ADX would exert renewed pressure on Bitcoin and global risk sentiment.
✴️ Conclusion:
∴ The DXY is operating in a compression regime with light bearish bias, encased beneath the triple-layered resistance of $98.22 and $98.50;
∴ Until the index secures a daily close above $98.50 supported by a strengthening ADX, the prevailing outlook remains range-to-down, targeting $97.94 and potentially $96.82;
∴ Should the crown of resistance be pierced with confirmed directional strength, the Dollar Index would advance toward $98.80 / $99.63, transitioning the macro background toward “risk-off” and imposing significant headwinds on Bitcoin and correlated assets.
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𓂀 Stoic-Structural Interpretation - DXY (1D, Aug 19, 2025):
∴ The Dollar Index remains imprisoned beneath its triple crown of resistance ($98.14 -> $98.22 -> $98.50). Each layer functions not as mere numbers, but as thresholds of control - the fortress where sellers guard the path forward;
∴ Momentum structures (RSI at $47.75, MACD compressed below zero, ADX at $13.22) whisper of weak conviction, a battlefield where neither camp advances decisively. Volatility compresses, energy coils. The silence of the bands is not peace; it is the breath before release.
∴ Supports lie at $97.94 and $96.82 - the fragile floor where weakness exposes the Index to further descent. Resistances culminate in the $99.63 upper band - the bastion to be conquered should strength return.
✴️ Philosophical Seal: Like the Stoic who tests virtue in adversity, the DXY now tests resolve in compression. Its stillness is deceptive - for beneath equilibrium, forces accumulate. The wise trader, like the Stoic, does not chase the noise of indecision; he prepares, unmoved, for the inevitable expansion.
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✦ Structure - DXY (1D, Aug 19, 2025):
∴ Bearish Stacking Alignment: Price $98.035 resides below EMA9 $98.139, which is below EMA21 $98.221, both beneath EMA50 $98.477. The moving averages align in descending order, sealing short-, mid-, and intermediate-term control under sellers;
∴ Compression Regime: Bollinger Bands narrowed to $96.815 / $99.628, with midline at $98.221. Volatility is contracted, reflecting equilibrium. The silence before expansion governs this phase;
∴ Momentum Exhaustion: RSI at 47.75 and MACD line at −0.085 with signal −0.082 indicate weakening drive, locked in indecision. ADX 13.22 confirms absence of a dominant directional force.
∴ Critical Thresholds:
• Support: $97.94 -> $96.82;
• Resistance: $98.22 -> $98.45–$98.50 -> $99.63;
These levels form the sacred geometry of the Dollar’s battlefield.
✴️ Structural Seal: The DXY is architected in a descending yet compressed formation - a fortress of resistance above, fragile floors below. Until ADX rises and one side seizes momentum, the Index drifts in suspended balance, storing potential for decisive rupture.
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· Cryptorvm Dominvs · MAGISTER ARCANVM · Vox Primordialis ·
· Dominivm Cardo Gyratio Omnivm · Silence precedes the next force. Structure is sacred ·
⊢
US Dollar Index (DXY) Analysis:The index is trading in a bearish trend, retreating since today’s market open and currently testing the 98.00 support level, which flipped from resistance yesterday.
🔻 Bearish Scenario:
If the index breaks below 98.00 and holds, the next targets could be 97.75 followed by 97.60.
🔺 Bullish Scenario:
On the other hand, if strong buying momentum pushes the price above 98.20, a move toward 98.33 could follow, with a possible retest of 98.50.
DXY Comprehensive AnalysisThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading around 98.14, struggling near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at 98.33, where strong resistance has capped further upside.
The RSI shows hidden bearish divergence, signaling potential weakness despite the recent bounce.
Price action remains within a broader downtrend channel, and repeated failures to sustain above 98.30 indicate fading bullish momentum.
Immediate support is seen near 98.00, any bearish break out will lead the prices towards 97.79 (Fib 0.786), followed by 97.50, which could attract sellers if broken.
On the upside, only a decisive break above 98.33–98.70 would shift intraday sentiment bullish toward 99.08.
For today, the bias leans bearish as long as DXY trades below 98.30, with intraday traders likely eyeing short setups on rejection patterns targeting the lower supports.
DOLLAR INDEX IN CONSOLIDATIONNews from Bloomberg
FX/RATES DAYBOOK EUROPE: Dollar Consolidates in Tight Range
By David Finnerty
(Bloomberg) -- The dollar held in narrow ranges versus major peers with traders focused on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole due on Aug. 22.
MARKETS:
USD/JPY little changed at 147.86 (range 147.62–148.11)
EUR/USD little changed at 1.1656 (range 1.1639–1.1675)
AUD/USD little changed at 0.6488 (range 0.6485–0.6497)
NZD/USD little changed at 0.5922 (range 0.5917–0.5929)
USD/CAD +0.1% to 1.3811 (range 1.3797–1.3818)
USD/CHF little changed at 0.8074 (range 0.8065–0.8086)
GBP/USD little changed at 1.3502 (range 1.3487-1.3525)
WTI Crude -0.6% to $63.07/bbl (range $62.99–$63.39)
S&P 500 mini index futures -0.2% to 6,459.75 (range 6,459.25–6,477.50)
DXY Consolidates SidewaysTVC:DXY continues to consolidate and be held between a Resistance and Support Between:
Resistance @ 98.2 - 98.3
Support @ 97.75 - 97.6
If TVC:DXY breaks the Local Resistance, this will see the USD gain strength temporarily til the Next Resistance Level @ 98.5 - 98.95
If TVC:DXY breaks the Local Support, this will see the USD lose strength temporarily til the Next Support Level @ 97.3 - 97.1
Fundamentally, Tariffs will continue to effect the underlying inflation issue USD deals with along with expectations gaining of not only 1 but a few Interest Cuts could come from the Federal Reserve before the end of the year! This could severely weaken USD!
DXY AnalysisI am Bullish on DXY
Daily $ identified
SSL swept 98.128
Bearish if 96.377 BOS
DXY Bullish, XXXUSD/Indices Bearish
Possibility of uptrend Given the behavior of the indicator within the current support range, possible scenarios have been identified. A trend change is expected within the current support range, the start of an uptrend is unlikely.
DXY: Strong Growth Ahead! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break above the current local range around 97.668 will confirm the new direction upwards with the target being the next key level of 97.805 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Are U.S. Dollar Bears getting exhausted?Still holding on to my EUR/USD short positions since late June/early July and it’s been quite a game of patience at this point but as I have been analyzing the U.S. Dollar for the past few months, from a purely technical analysis perspective, I’m currently still seeing the U.S. Dollar potentially carving out a bottom here and make a run to re-visit the 100 - 102 price zone.
I know markets are highly anticipating a Federal Reserve rate cute in September but with inflation still sticking around, it may not be such a sure thing just yet.
All eyeballs and ears will be on tap for Powell’s speech on Friday.
Technical analysis signals:
• Descending Broadening/Expanding Wedge (Bullish Pattern)
• MACD Histogram showing a sign of potential bearish exhaustion
DXYThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing a bearish outlook as momentum weakens and sellers regain control.
DXY Analysis (US Dollar Index):The US Dollar Index is moving in a long-term bearish trend but has shown some upward momentum at today’s market open, currently testing the 98.00 resistance level.
🔹 Bearish Scenario:
If DXY fails to break above 98.00 and drops below 97.80 with strong bearish momentum, the price could decline towards 97.50 as the first target and then 97.20 as the second target, which may act as a potential reversal zone.
🔹 Bullish Scenario:
On the other hand, if strong buying pressure pushes the index above 98.00 and sustains the breakout, we could see an upside move towards 98.22 followed by a retest of the 98.50 zone.
US Dollar Index (DXY) in Balance Ahead of Key EventsUS Dollar Index (DXY) in Balance Ahead of Key Events
In our previous analysis of the US Dollar Index (DXY), we:
→ outlined a descending channel (red) based on a sequence of lower highs and lows;
→ anticipated a move towards the median line of this channel.
As of 18 August, the DXY is trading around the median of the channel and is forming a contracting triangle pattern (blue). The RSI remains close to the neutral 50 level, indicating equilibrium between supply and demand.
This balance may be ruined given upcoming events:
→ Today, discussions at the White House between Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and European leaders will focus on the conflict in Ukraine. The outcome may provide clarity following the Trump–Putin meeting on 15 August.
→ On Wednesday at 21:00 GMT+3, the FOMC minutes will be released. Markets will look for guidance on the likelihood of a September rate cut after last Thursday’s stronger-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) print, which some interpret as a signal of potential inflationary pressures from new trade tariffs.
Market participants should anticipate volatility, with price impulses possible in either direction.
The base scenario for the week is a test of one of the quarter lines (QL/QH) within the channel, consistent with the broader US dollar weakening trend in place since January 2025. A breakout of QL or QH line and sustained move away from the channel median would indicate a shift in sentiment and the potential for a directional move beyond the current structure.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
DXY LONG SETUPDXY is on a good zone for a potential swing buy again .. we can use it as a cross reference in shorting order USD quote pairs..
