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U.S. Dollar Index

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DXY trade ideas

USD Index Technical Outlook – Key Buy & Sell LevelsThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading inside a clear downward channel, showing a bearish market structure. Price is hovering near 98.23, just below the key resistance zone between 98.5 – 99.2, where Fibonacci retracement levels (0.382, 0.5, and 0.618) also align, making it a strong supply area. As long as price remains below this zone, the bias stays bearish, with potential downside targets at 97.5 and then 96.5, in line with the channel support and Fibonacci extensions. However, if buyers manage to push above 99.2, it would signal a possible trend reversal and shift the outlook towards bullish continuation. Overall, the structure suggests that the U.S. Dollar Index is more likely to face rejection near resistance and continue lower in the short term. 🔴 Sell Zone (Short Setup) - 98.50 – 99.20 is a strong resistance area where price aligns with the Fibonacci retracement (0.382 – 0.618) and the upper channel trendline. - Sell Trigger: If price shows rejection (bearish candles, wicks, or reversal patterns) within this zone. 🟢 Buy Zone (Long Setup) - 97.50 – 96.50 area is the channel support and also near Fibonacci extension levels. - Buy Trigger: Look for bullish confirmation (bounce, bullish engulfing, or rejection wicks). Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
TVC:DXYShort
by SibiSh
DXY vs. EURUSD – Pre-FOMC DivergenceDollar Index (DXY) Yesterday’s move was fully absorbed inside a tight range, leaving the internal range high at 99.804 ahead of the Fed meeting. Liquidity is at 98.00 stacked above that zone; market makers could easily run the stops toward the 98 handle before any larger downside move. EURUSD Meanwhile, EURUSD broke out of its major range, giving us a new weekly structure with a key reference low at 1.13914. Cross-Market View This sets up a classic divergence: Dollar – trapped in a premium sell range, heavy liquidity overhead. Euro – fresh upside structure. For cross-pairs this often means sharp pullbacks or erratic price action as we approach the FOMC decision. Trade Notes Stay nimble and keep stops tight.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by CORE5DAN
Weekly Review: Dollar Weakness, Equities Rally, Crypto at resis'Abstract This week’s market action painted a consistent story: the dollar fell hard, global yields softened, and equities rallied toward resistance. Meanwhile, commodities (oil, gold, copper) strengthened, supporting a reflationary tone. The main caution flag: volatility gauges (VIX & VVIX) are rising, hinting that this risk‑on rally might not be bullet‑proof. In crypto, BTC and ETH tested overhead resistance with weak volume — optimism is there, but conviction is not. 🚨 Special Focus: September 17th Fed Cut The Federal Reserve’s September 17th policy decision is the most important catalyst this week. A rate cut at 2 PM EST has direct and immediate implications for all the moves outlined below: Dollar Impact: Cuts weaken the dollar further, amplifying this week’s oversold DXY. Yields: A cut locks in the recent fall in bond yields, making equities and gold more attractive. Equities: Would justify current rallies but also risks looking like “policy panic”, which can spur volatility. Commodities: Oil and Gold respond positively to looser policy → reflation + hedging. Crypto: Historically benefits from Fed easing, but watch if BTC can actually break resistance when liquidity improves. Interpretation: September 17th could either validate the risk‑on rally, or reverse it sharply if markets fear the Fed is cutting because economic weakness is worse than expected. Traders should mark 2 PM EST as a volatility event across Dollar, Yields, Equities, Commodities, and Crypto. 👉 Chart reference: US10Y 1. Dollar & FX: Oversold Break DXY dropped to ~96.6, oversold on RSI (26) after repeated breaks of structure. EURUSD surged past 1.18, entering overbought momentum. USDJPY and USDCAD both slipped lower, aligning with dollar weakness. USDINR weakened to 88.0 → 87.85 POI, showing INR strength matched with NIFTY breakout. Interpretation: The dollar is oversold and losing momentum — normally bullish for risk assets. But extreme RSI means a technical bounce is possible. 👉 Chart here: DXY / EURUSD 2. Yields: Relief for Equities US10Y at 4.03%, US30Y at 4.65% — both off highs, easing pressure on stocks. CA10Y fell to 3.16%, tailwind for CAD and TSX. IN10Y steady ~6.49%, supportive backdrop for India. Interpretation: Lower yields = fresh air for equities. Bonds validating a mild risk‑on bias. 👉 Chart here: US10Y / Global Yields 3. U.S. Equities: Bulls in Control S&P 500 at 6607, up ~2.9% this week, testing resistance. Nasdaq 100 jumped 3.5%, now overbought on RSI. Dow Jones up 1.7%, steady breadth support. Interpretation: U.S. indices are riding the yield drop, but now pressing major resistance zones. Easy money for bulls is fading — the next leg requires stronger conviction. 👉 Chart here: SPX (NDX and DJI showing similar characteristic on their respective charts) 4. Global Equities: India & Canada Stand Out NIFTY broke to 25,239, clean resistance breakout, INR strength aligned. TSX surged 3.7% with oil, CAD, and yields falling in sync. EuroStoxx (SX5E) consolidated flat — showing Europe still lagging. Interpretation: The best relative strength came from India and Canada. Europe lagged, lacking energy leverage. 👉 Chart here: NIFTY / TSX 5. Commodities: Reflation Pulse Oil climbed to $64.6, breaking resistance. Gold at $3695 (+2.6%), safe‑haven demand still alive. Copper to $4.70, break higher supportive for growth assets. Interpretation: Energy and metals are supporting the equity rally. Gold rising alongside = investors hedging tail risk too. 👉 Chart here: Oil / Gold 6. Volatility: Under the Hood VIX back up to 16.4, rising after being crushed. VVIX surged to 104, volatility of vol is warning of unstable positioning. IndiaVIX collapsed below 11, reflecting too much complacency locally. Interpretation: While equities scream “bull!”, vol warns risk management is key. This is not free money. 👉 Chart here: VIX 7. Crypto: Resistance Check BTC at 116.6k and ETH at 4.5k: both testing resistance with weak volumes. BNB surged +5.7%, outperformed majors. SOL held above 228–236, neutral bias. XRP stuck near 3.0, chopping sideways. Interpretation: Trend is up in sympathy with equities, but risk of rejection at resistance is very real. Without stronger volumes, crypto remains a “show me” trade. 👉 Chart here: BTC 💡 Big Picture Takeaway Dollar tanking = equity and commodity rally fuel. Yields easing = confirms risk‑on conditions. Equities at resistance with rising vol = bulls in control, but fragility building. Crypto is lagging in volume — it benefits from macro tailwind but not leading. Best relative strength: NIFTY, TSX, Oil, Gold. Fed rate cut on Sep 17 = the true decision point for trend continuation or reversal. 🎯 Conclusion — Risk‑On, But Fed Holds the Key Markets rewarded risk this week as the dollar collapsed and yields faded. But overbought equities, crypto resistances, and rising volatility gauges warn that the move is not bullet‑proof. The September 17th Fed cut at 2 PM is the ultimate test. If the cut is seen as proactive stimulus, the rally has room to extend. If it’s read as a panic signal, what looks like risk‑on could swiftly unwind. ✅ Bias for the coming week: constructive risk‑on until the Fed cut, then stand ready for sharp volatility. 📌 For traders: Buy dips in leaders (NIFTY, TSX, commodities) before the Fed — reduce leverage into decision. For investors: Stay allocated with hedges in vol and gold. ICEUS:DXY FX_IDC:USDINR CMCMARKETS:USDCAD CMCMARKETS:EURUSD TVC:US10Y CBOE:SPX NASDAQ:NDX DJ:DJI NSE:NIFTY TSX:TSX TVC:SX5E NYMEX:CL1! OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:VIX CRYPTO:BTCUSD
ICEUS:DXY
by super_solanki
LIQUIDITY SWEEP ON DXY BEFORE FALLINGIn this weekend dollar index analysis presentation, my thesis is sideways liquidity sweep before a daily bear flag breakout to the downside. Momentum and RSI on the higher timeframe are still to downside suggesting more selling. Price is still trapped below all our moving averages confirming our trend bias. On the weekly time frame we have a couple of inverted candles at a fib 0.618 support zone suggesting a likely reversal from a higher low but I think these inverted candles are liquidity sweeps from the 0.382 fib retrace resistance level. The daily chart has a strong shooting star which initiated selling pressure to the current trendline support level at 97.432 where our last daily candle was a doji indecision or pause. In the coming first trading week of September, I will be watching for clear break of the trendline on the daily chart and a confirmed breakout of the fib 0.618 support zone at 97.187 for an initial target of 96.702 and final target of 96.155. Thank you and have a great profitable trading new month. Cheers!!
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by RICHINVESTOR
Hmmm, DXYThere is something quite telling about the DXY that has me rubbing my chin. If the DXY continues it's downtrend this year and even next year, what would it mean for assets against the dollar, especially crypto currencies, mainly Bitcoin? Typically, Bitcoin's 4 year cycle is bearish on the 4th year but that was for the last 15 or so years when the dollar was in an uptrend. What would happen on the fourth year for Bitcoin during a crashing DXY? Is it safe to hold crypto currencies this end of cycle? I have a feeling that if the DXY continues to fall, crypto will continue to rise even during the 4th year when the bears usually take over. The take over may happen, but with a minor correction (32.8 possibly) that whiplashes a bit more than it trends, before it trends again. Stay tuned!
TVC:DXYShort
by illagodzilla
2
BEARISH CONTINUATION FOR DXYBearish Bias for CAPITALCOM:DXY Weekly context: The last up-move failed to print a new weekly high. Failing to create a shift in structure , so rallies are suspect. 4H structure: We had a hard bearish displacement (large down candles) that erased prior price action and kept going without delivering a “full” rebalance. That usually means the price target remains lower . The key zones on chart Breaker / sell zone: \~ 97.45–97.75 (teal box). This is the prior bullish OB that failed (now acting as resistance). Line in the sand: \~ 97.35–97.40 (dashed line through the teal). A decisive 4H close below here signals continuation. Upside cap / invalidation area: 98.12 (cyan line) up to \~ 98.20 . Above this, the bearish sentiment weakens. Primary downside draw: 96.478 (orange line). That’s the next obvious liquidity/inefficiency magnet on your chart. Trade plan Idea A — Rejection short from the breaker (preferred): Entry: look for a rejection setup inside 97.45–97.75 (e.g., 15m/1h bearish shift after a sweep). Stop: above the breaker and the cyan line ⇒ 98.12 (conservative) or 98.20 (safer). Targets: T1: 96.84 (take partials; pay yourself) T2: 96.47.00 Idea B — Continuation after the break (confirmation play): Trigger: a 4H close below \~97.35 . Entry: sell the first clean pullback into 97.35–97.45 . Stop: above 97.85–98.00 (back inside the breaker); conservative stop 98.12 . Target: 96.478 Management & invalidation If price rebalances deeper and closes 4H above 98.12–98.20 , the breaker is failing. Flatten shorts; reassess (potential squeeze toward 98.60–99.00 is then on deck). If price hesitates at 97.00 , trail above the last 1H swing high to protect realized PnL while aiming for 96.478 . News risk: Your chart flags upcoming US data (icons). Expect wicks; use hard stops and consider sizing down around releases. Why this makes sense * The strong displacement leg sets the draw lower. * The teal box is a bearish breaker created by a failed bullish structure—ideal for “sell on rally.” * The market rebalanced the prior up-close leg already; the lack of a symmetrical rebalance on the down-leg favors continuation to the next target ( 96.478 ). One-liner: Bearish while 4H stays under 98.12 ; sell rallies into 97.45–97.75 or sell a 4H close-and-pullback below 97.35 ; scale out 97.20 → 97.00 → 96.80 → 96.478 ; hard stop above 98.12–98.20 . *Not financial advice. Size appropriately and stick to your stop.* PLEASE PUA!
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by JP_Tru
DXY Neutral -BearishCAPITALCOM:DXY Quick read / bias Near-term neutral → biased bearish. Price has failed to produce a clean reversal from the large consolidation at the top, shows a series of lower-highs and liquidity hunts (marked ellipses / Imbalance repairs on the chart), and a visible “downside pressure” supply region above. The path of least resistance is down unless price reclaims the supply/consolidation zone above ~98.6–99.2. ------------------------------------------------ Key levels (from the chart) Major consolidation / supply: ~99.2 – 99.8 (big-picture resistance). Downside pressure / mid supply: ~98.5 – 98.8 (area to sell into). Recent micro highs: 98.39, 98.19, 97.99 (loci for liquidity). Current price (chart right): ~97.18. Recent local low/liquidity grab: 96.834. Weekly void / structural bottom to watch: 96.478 (labelled on chart). Invalidation for bearish thesis: close/hold above 99.2 (reclaim of consolidation). ------------------------------------------------ How I read the structure (step-by-step) Price spent time in a higher consolidation zone and then failed to reverse higher — that is a distribution / supply footprint rather than demand. The chart shows several short liquidity hunts above swing highs (grey ellipses) and subsequent strong selling — classic stop-hunts into supply then continuation lower. Imbalances / small supply boxes on the chart mark places the market tends to retest before continuing — these are high-probability sell zones on rallies. The sequence of lower highs and a recent push down to ~96.83 (buyer defence) gives a local support but not yet a valid reversal signal. Until price chops through the weekly void (96.478) or reclaims the supply, expect range/biased-down behavior. ------------------------------------------------ Trade setups (actionable — use your 5-min/1-min workflow) I’ll give two primary setups: a higher-probability short (sell the rally) and a contrarian long (mean-reversion). Use 5-min to identify displacement into the zone and 1-min for the exact micro reversal entry. ------------------------------------------------ Setup A — Primary: Short on rally into supply (preferred) Why: Market structure + downside pressure + Imbalance above make rallies into supply favourable. Area to enter (limit or wait for 1-min reversal): 98.00 – 98.20 (ideal limit ~98.10). Stop loss: 98.45 (just above the 98.39 / structure swing and above the Imbalance top). Targets (scale): T1: 97.00 — first logical demand and psychological level. T2: 96.50 — deeper swing support / mid structural level. T3: 96.478 — weekly void bottom (big target if momentum continues). Risk / reward (example entry 98.10 → stop 98.45): Risk = 0.35 index points. R:T1 ≈ 1.10 / 0.35 ≈ 3.14:1. R:T2 ≈ 1.60 / 0.35 ≈ 4.57:1. R:T3 ≈ 1.622 / 0.35 ≈ 4.63:1. Trigger: 5-min displacement into the 98.0–98.2 zone, then 1-min rejection pattern (pin bar / engulf / two-bar reversal) and ideally a filled Imbalance or wick extension that fails. Enter limit at Imbalance top or use a short after 1-min confirmation. ------------------------------------------------ Setup B — Secondary: Mean-reversion long (countertrend) Why: Buyers defended the 96.83 area previously; a clean, verified micro reversal at lower support can produce a quick retrace. This is lower probability vs the sell-the-rally plan and should be sized smaller. Area to enter (limit/1-min confirmation): 96.75 – 96.95 (example limit 96.85). Stop loss: 96.45 (below the 96.48 weekly void and the local wick). Targets (scale): T1: 97.40 (near recent chop / first structure). T2: 97.99 (previous micro high). T3: 98.39 (if momentum shifts to reclaim structure). Risk / reward (example entry 96.85 → stop 96.45): Risk = 0.40. R:T1 ≈ 0.55 / 0.40 ≈ 1.38:1. R:T2 ≈ 1.14 / 0.40 ≈ 2.85:1. R:T3 ≈ 1.54 / 0.40 ≈ 3.85:1. Trigger: Look for a 5-min exhaustion and 1-min clean micro reversal (two-bar bullish rejection) ideally with buy volume or a wick that holds. Keep size smaller than on shorts. ------------------------------------------------ Intraday scalp idea (quick) Long scalp on a 1-min reversal after a displacement down to ~96.83 with tight stop under the wick (e.g. 5–8 ticks) and target 97.20–97.40. Use only if price shows clean microstructure and momentum. Trade management rules Positioning: Risk a fixed % per trade (e.g., 0.5–1% of account) and size accordingly. The short setup has high RR — size to risk tolerance. Partial take: Take ~50% at T1, move stop to breakeven, let remainder run to T2/T3. If price stalls at T1: tighten stop to lock profit or exit if structure shows weakness. If price breaks and holds above 98.60 / 99.2: exit shorts and flip to neutral/bullish plan — the initial bearish thesis is invalidated. Use your timeframe combo: identify the displacement on 5-min, execute 1-min entry confirmation. ------------------------------------------------ Invalidation / alternative scenario Bearish invalidation: clean, sustained close above 98.6–99.2 (consolidation re-claim) — if that happens, the market likely shifts to bullish and short ideas should be abandoned. Bullish trigger: rally above 99.2 with follow-through and a higher low -> targets back toward 99.8. ------------------------------------------------ Final prediction Over the next sessions I expect failed rallies into 98.0–98.6 to be sold, which should gravitate price toward 97.00 → 96.50 → 96.48 if momentum confirms. Countertrend longs are possible as scalps/swing trades off 96.8–96.48, but they should be treated as lower-probability and sized smaller. If price instead reclaims and holds >99.2, the bearish bias is invalidated.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by JP_Tru
Dollar Index (DXY) – Watching Both Sides LiquidityOn the daily timeframe, we can clearly identify liquidity resting on both sides of the chart: Relative equal lows acting as sell-side liquidity. Low-resistance highs representing buy-side liquidity. From my perspective, the main draw on liquidity remains the sell-side lows. However, before targeting that area, price may first reach higher to grab the buy-side liquidity. Once this liquidity is collected, I expect a potential shift in momentum and a move to the downside. 💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌 🔎 DYOR 💡Wait for the update!
PEPPERSTONE:USDXShort
by VahidTradingCR
1
Us Dollar Index Hi traders I will provide you with an analysis of dxy, maybe it will be useful. Considering reaching the support zone as well as the bottom of the descending channel on the 4-hour time frame،I expect an upward trend (dollar strengthening) Of course, a trend change may occur after a fake breakout and the trend may become bullish after reaching the number 96. warninggggg If today's and tomorrow's news, which are very important, invalidate this analysis, a new analysis will be presented soon.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by AliAsghariii
DXY - Dollar Extended Wave DownNow, I am not one familiar with FOREX, and I'll start by saying, that this wavecount isn't the most likely especially with expected rate cuts on the horizon. We could have bottomed on the low the dollar made in June, however, that structure appears clearly corrective and I cannot ignore the solidity of it. Again, we could transfer into a double or triple three to finish this last move, it's too soon to fully tell. Just using this chart for context to my other plays not taking any trades.
TVC:DXY
by ThePennyMan
1
DXY on the move - where to next?This chart has three key elements: fib fan from the high in 1985 fib fan from the low in 2008 fib retracement. The blue arrows show the anchor, top and 50% retrace Note how perfect the 50% retrace is. This validates the fib. Also note that we pinned the .236 level which is also the teal fib fan line, where we've found previous support. .236 generally offers a bounce, especially combined with another key level (ascending teal trendline). RSI momentum looks to be pulling us down. Also note the grey fib fan centerline. This is the basis for this fib fan and we touched it twice, once in 2008 and once in 20011. I believe the dollar will get back to this grey trendline, likely where I've circled, somewhere around the intersection of the 50% fib and this trendline. I would not be surprised to see a bounce to 104. We could also see 75 sometime in june/july of 26 if things start getting crazy.
TVC:DXY
by novamatic
2