DOLLAR INDEX DOLLAR INDEX holding on support floor, one more bearish drop will it tanking ,the US10Y is down .
#dollar #dxy
DXY trade ideas
DXY Bearish The DXY is expected to remain bearish until it reaches the 94.00–92.00 levels, with the possibility of dropping even further below those levels
DOLLAR INDEX DOLLAR index at exactly 12;30 gave us a clear sell which gave gold buyers the opportunty to go long from 3475 level to 3530 and extending its gain on daily
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is a financial index that measures the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of six major foreign currencies. It is widely used to gauge the overall strength or weakness of the US dollar in global currency markets.
Key Facts About DXY:
The index is calculated as a weighted geometric average of the US dollar’s exchange rates with six major currencies:
Euro (EUR): 57.6% weight (the largest component)
Japanese Yen (JPY): 13.6% weight
British Pound (GBP): 11.9% weight
Canadian Dollar (CAD): 9.1% weight
Swedish Krona (SEK): 4.2% weight
Swiss Franc (CHF): 3.6% weight
The DXY rises when the US dollar strengthens against these currencies and falls when it weakens.
It was created in 1973 following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system to provide a standardized benchmark for the dollar's value.
The index is maintained and published by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).
Why DXY Matters:
The DXY is a key indicator for traders, economists, and investors to assess the dollar’s performance globally.
It affects pricing in global trade and commodities, which are often denominated in US dollars, such as oil and gold.
Movements in the DXY influence monetary policy decisions, financial markets, and global economic dynamics.
In essence, the DXY is the benchmark for measuring the US dollar’s strength against a basket of significant global currencies, providing a comprehensive picture of its international value.
UNITED STATE ECONOMIC DATA REPORT TODAY.
The latest US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is 48.7 for August 2025, slightly below the forecast of 49.0 but above the 48.0 previous A PMI below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector, so this points to a modest slowing but less severe than expected.
The ISM Manufacturing Prices Index stands at 63.7, down from 65.1 forecasted and marginally below the 64.8 previous data . This index measures prices paid by manufacturers for raw materials and inputs, and a reading above 50 signals rising input costs. The current elevated level suggests continued inflationary pressures on manufacturing costs, although slightly easing.
Summary:
US ISM Manufacturing PMI: 48.7 (contracting modestly, slightly better than forecast)
US ISM Manufacturing Prices: 63.7 (input costs rising, but showing some easing)
These indicators suggest the US manufacturing sector is experiencing a mild contraction, with inflationary cost pressures moderating somewhat but still elevated. This mixed data can influence Federal Reserve policymaking, signaling slower growth but persistent price pressures.
The COMEX gold price today, September 2, 2025, is trading near $3,550 to $3,567 per troy ounce. The gold futures recently surged, hitting new record highs above $3,550, supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. Gold has gained over 1% on the day, reflecting strong safe-haven demand amid dollar weakness and inflation concerns.
In summary:
COMEX Gold price around $3,550 - $3,567 per ounce (September 2, 2025)
Recent gains driven by Fed rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks
Price at record levels, reflecting strong investor interest
#dollar #dxy #gold #xauusd
LIQUIDITY SWEEP ON DXY BEFORE FALLINGIn this weekend dollar index analysis presentation, my thesis is sideways liquidity sweep before a daily bear flag breakout to the downside. Momentum and RSI on the higher timeframe are still to downside suggesting more selling. Price is still trapped below all our moving averages confirming our trend bias. On the weekly time frame we have a couple of inverted candles at a fib 0.618 support zone suggesting a likely reversal from a higher low but I think these inverted candles are liquidity sweeps from the 0.382 fib retrace resistance level. The daily chart has a strong shooting star which initiated selling pressure to the current trendline support level at 97.432 where our last daily candle was a doji indecision or pause.
In the coming first trading week of September, I will be watching for clear break of the trendline on the daily chart and a confirmed breakout of the fib 0.618 support zone at 97.187 for an initial target of 96.702 and final target of 96.155.
Thank you and have a great profitable trading new month. Cheers!!
Do you believe that the US dollar will continue to fall or not?Recently, there has been a lot of discussion about the US dollar losing its status as a reserve currency. If you look at the chart of the USD index, you can see that it has decreased from its peak in 2022 (114.77) to its current level (96.37), which is a drop of around 16% over the past two and a half years.
From a technical perspective, this drop makes sense, as the dollar's popularity had grown before, and it gained more than 62% between the lows of 2008 and the peaks in 2022. It would be difficult to list all the reasons why this increase occurred, but the main question now is whether the US currency will continue to decline or if it has a chance to recover.
Before we answer that, let's first determine which wave the USD index is currently in.
Based on my calculations, the growth cycle began at a level of 70.70 in the year 2008. Wave 1 represented an increase from 70.70 to 89.62 and took approximately two years to form. This wave was followed by Wave 2, which almost fully corrected Wave 1.
Wave 3 went from 72.69 to 103.82 (and, as expected, the third wave beats on five waves of a lesser order), with Wave 3 representing 1.618% of Wave 1.
Wave 4 gave a correction of 50% to the wavelength of Wave 3, in the short term, Wave 4 went beyond the maximum of Wave 1.
But this rule makes sense only for non-marginal markets. Futures markets, with their high margins, can lead to short-term price spikes that would not occur in markets without borrowed funds, so an intersection is allowed, which is usually limited to daily or intraday price changes.
Wave 4 lasted approximately 4.5 years, after which growth was continued by Wave 5. This raised the US dollar index to a level of 114.77, representing 1.272 percent of Wave 1. Therefore, it took approximately 14 years for the entire index to grow.
At the moment, the current growth of 70.70-114.77 has been adjusted by approximately 38.2%, and visually, the ABC structure appears complete. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index has made a third contact with the support line, which has been in place since April 2011. Based on this, it is likely that we can anticipate some recovery in the position of the US currency.
However, there is an important nuance that could overshadow medium-term predictions for the growth of the dollar. Specifically, it relates to the temporary adjustment parameter. As can be seen within the impulse wave, waves 2 and 4 were quite long in time, and therefore, the entire ABC pattern, in my view, occurred too quickly relative to the overall 14-year growth trend.
And the following conclusions follow from this:
1) Yes, we can expect a rebound from the long-term upward support, and it is even possible that we will see a move in the US Dollar Index to 105-105.5 or 108, but it is unlikely to be higher.
2) However, it is also worth noting that the US dollar is likely to continue its downward trend for the foreseeable future. Because a 2.5-year pullback is clearly not enough to correct a 14-year growth, temporary movements should also be comparable, and the external zigzag may well become a double or triple zigzag and continue the pullback towards the 50-61.8% Fibonacci level to the growth wave of 70.70-114.77. That is, either towards 92.80-93, or towards 87.60.
3) Recently, analysts at deVere Group, one of the world's largest independent financial advisory and asset management organizations, suggested that the US currency will decline by another 10% over the next 12 months. This forecast is supported by similar predictions from other major financial institutions, which foresee a decline in the US currency due to slower growth, aggressive rate cuts and disruptions to global trade. www.tradingview.com
DOLLAR INDEX CURRENCY We will be looking for bullish opportunities as the market its on an EQL Zone Resulting possible buying opportunities, the dollar will be strong |1H TIMEFRAME
DXY DOLLAR INDEX GOLD BULLS WINS ON ECONOMIC DATA REPORT .
BREAKDOWN.
Indicator Current Forecast Previous
Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Non-Farm Employment Change 22,000 75,000 79,000
Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3% 4.2%
Fed Interpretation:
Average Hourly Earnings (0.3% m/m): In line with forecasts and previous data, showing steady wage growth. Stable wage growth suggests moderate inflation pressure from labor costs.
Non-Farm Employment Change (22,000): Significantly below forecast (75,000) and previous month (79,000), indicating a sharp slowdown in job creation. This suggests labor market cooling, potentially reflecting economic slowdown or more cautious hiring by employers.
The agency responsible for the US Non-Farm Employment Change data is the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which is part of the U.S. Department of Labor
The report, often released on the first Friday of each month, measures the change in the number of people employed in the US excluding farm workers, private household employees, and nonprofit organization employees.
It is based on the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey which covers about 141,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 486,000 worksites.
The data provides detailed insights into employment, hours worked, and earnings across various industries.
The report is closely watched as a key indicator of labor market health and overall economic performance.
Unemployment Rate (4.3%): Slightly increased from previous 4.2%, matching forecast. A rising unemployment rate confirms some softening in labor market conditions.
The agency responsible for measuring and reporting the Unemployment Rate in the United States is the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which is part of the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL).
Key Points:
The Unemployment Rate is part of the monthly Employment Situation Report produced by the BLS.
It measures the percentage of the labor force that is jobless but actively seeking work.
Data for the unemployment rate is collected through the Current Population Survey (CPS), which surveys approximately 60,000 households.
The BLS releases the unemployment rate and other labor statistics on the first Friday of every month.
The Department of Labor oversees the BLS, which is responsible for gathering and disseminating this critical labor market data that influences economic policy, including Federal Reserve decisions.
Summary:
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): the official source for the unemployment rate.
U.S. Department of Labor (DOL): the parent department supervising BLS operations.
The unemployment rate data helps assess economic health and guides policy decisions on employment and inflation.
Overall Fed Takeaway:
The marked slowdown in job growth combined with a slight rise in unemployment signals weakening labor market strength
Stable wage growth limits upside inflation risks from labor costs.
These signals suggest easing inflation pressures and a slowing economy, which might encourage the Fed to pause further rate hikes or consider cutting rates soon to support growth.
The Fed will likely weigh this data alongside other inflation and economic indicators to decide the next policy step but may lean cautiously towards easing given the weaker jobs data.
In summary, today’s data points to a moderating labor market with controlled wage inflation that supports a more dovish Fed approach in upcoming meetings.
DXY DEFENDED 97,428 ON DATA RPORT AND CLOSE THE 4HR ABOVE KEY SUPPORT STRUCTURE TO 97.722 AS AT REPORTING.
THE US 10Y BOND YIELD 4.056% SINKING TODAY BUT ON STRUCTURE THE US10Y IS ON DEMANDFLOOR AND BOND BUYING COULD OFFSET GOLS GAINS TODAY.
OPEN OF NEXT WEEK GOLD WILL CORRECT BECAUSE ITS OVER BOUGHT.
#GOLD #DXY #US10Y #DOLLAR
DXY: Target Is Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 97.275 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
DXY Dollar Index: Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy Forecast# DXY Dollar Index: Comprehensive Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy Forecast
Asset Class: US Dollar Index (DXY)
Current Price: 97.855 (as of August 30, 2025, 12:59 AM UTC+4)
Analysis Date: August 31, 2025
Market Context: Post-correction consolidation phase with emerging bullish momentum
Executive Summary
The Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading at 97.855, showing signs of stabilization after a significant decline from yearly highs. Our multi-dimensional technical analysis reveals a critical juncture where multiple timeframes converge, presenting both intraday scalping opportunities and swing trading setups. The analysis incorporates advanced pattern recognition, wave theory, and momentum indicators to provide actionable trading insights.
Current Market Landscape
The DXY exchange rate rose to 97.8549 on August 29, 2025, up 0.04% from the previous session, indicating short-term stabilization. However, over the past month, the United States Dollar has weakened 1.96%, and is down by 3.81% over the last 12 months. This presents a complex technical picture where short-term bullish momentum may be developing within a broader corrective phase.
The DXY Dollar Index Futures kicked off the new week with a strong bullish candle, signaling renewed upward momentum, supported by non-commercial traders reducing their bearish bets according to recent COT data.
Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis
Elliott Wave Theory Analysis
Based on recent Elliott Wave patterns, the descent from the May 29, 2025 high is currently unfolding as a five-wave impulse Elliott Wave pattern. From this high, wave ((i)) concluded at 98.35, followed by a corrective rally in wave ((ii)). The rally formed as an expanded flat, peaking at 99.43.
Wave Count Structure:
Primary Wave: Currently in corrective Wave 4 of larger degree cycle
Intermediate Count: Completing 5-wave decline from 2025 highs
Near-term: Potential Wave 5 completion around 96.50-97.00 zone
Elliott Wave Targets:
Immediate Support: 96.80-97.00 (Wave equality zone)
Key Resistance: 99.40-99.80 (Previous Wave ((ii)) high)
Major Resistance: 101.50-102.00 (Fibonacci confluence)
Harmonic Pattern Analysis
Active Patterns:
1. Potential Bullish Bat Pattern forming on 4H-Daily timeframe
- X to A leg: 103.50 to 96.20
- A to B retracement: 38.2% at 98.98
- B to C projection: 88.6% of AB at 97.15
- Completion zone: 96.50-96.80 (88.6% XA retracement)
2. Bearish Gartley Pattern (Completed)
- Generated sell signals at 99.20-99.50 range
- Currently in profit-taking phase
Fibonacci Confluence Zones:
Strong Support: 96.50-96.80 (Multiple harmonic convergence)
Resistance Cluster: 98.80-99.20 (38.2% and 50% retracements)
Major Resistance: 101.20-101.80 (61.8% golden ratio)
Wyckoff Theory Assessment
Current Phase: Potential Accumulation Phase (Spring Test)
Distribution Phase: Completed at 2025 highs (103.50+ region)
Markdown Phase: May-August 2025 decline
Current Position: Testing Spring levels around 96.50-97.50
Wyckoff Signals:
- Volume divergence suggests smart money accumulation
- Price action showing reduced selling pressure
- Potential for markup phase if 98.50 resistance breaks
W.D. Gann Analysis
Gann Square of 9:
- Natural resistance at 98 (perfect square)
- Strong support at 96 (key Gann level)
- Next major target: 100 (psychological and Gann confluence)
Gann Time Theory:
- Current time cycle suggests reversal window: September 3-10, 2025
- Major time square due: October 2025 (90-degree angle)
- Price-Time balance suggests equilibrium around 97.50
Gann Angles:
- 1x1 angle from August lows: 97.20 (active support)
- 2x1 resistance line: 98.60
- 1x2 support angle: 96.40
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Analysis
Current Cloud Status:
- Price below Tenkan-sen (97.95) - Short-term bearish
- Kijun-sen at 98.40 acting as dynamic resistance
- Cloud (Kumo) resistance: 99.20-99.80
- Future Cloud: Thinning, suggesting volatility ahead
Ichimoku Signals:
- TK Cross: Pending bullish crossover if price holds above 97.50
- Cloud breakout target: 99.80+
- Support levels: Kijun-sen (98.40), Tenkan-sen (97.95)
Technical Indicators Analysis
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Daily RSI: 42.5 (Oversold but not extreme)
4H RSI: 38.2 (Approaching oversold territory)
1H RSI: 45.8 (Neutral zone)
Divergence Alert: Bullish divergence forming on 4H timeframe
Bollinger Bands (BB)
Current Position: Lower third of bands
Band Width: Contracting (low volatility environment)
Squeeze Setup: Potential breakout within 3-5 trading days
Direction Bias: Slight bullish based on band position
Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Daily VWAP: 98.12 (resistance)
Weekly VWAP: 98.85 (major resistance)
Monthly VWAP: 99.45 (significant overhead supply)
Moving Averages Confluence
SMA 20: 98.15 (immediate resistance)
EMA 50: 98.75 (intermediate resistance)
SMA 200: 100.20 (major trend line)
Current Status: Below all major MAs (bearish bias)
Candlestick Pattern Recognition
Recent Formations:
1. Doji Star (August 29) - Indecision at support
2. Hammer Pattern (August 30) - Potential reversal signal
3. Bullish Engulfing setup developing
Pattern Implications:
- Short-term reversal signals strengthening
- Volume confirmation needed for validation
- Risk-reward favors long positions with tight stops
Market Structure & Support/Resistance
Key Support Levels:
1. 97.20-97.40 - Immediate support (Gann 1x1 angle)
2. 96.80-97.00 - Major support (Harmonic completion)
3. 96.20-96.50 - Critical support (Previous reaction low)
4. 95.50-95.80 - Ultimate support (2024 major low)
Key Resistance Levels:
1. 98.15-98.40 - Immediate resistance (SMA 20 + Kijun-sen)
2. 98.80-99.20 - Intermediate resistance (Fibonacci + VWAP)
3. 99.40-99.80 - Major resistance (Elliott Wave + Cloud)
4. 101.20-101.80 - Long-term resistance (Multiple confluences)
Trading Strategy & Time Frame Analysis
Intraday Trading Strategy (5M - 4H Charts)
Bullish Scenario (Probability: 60%)
Entry Zone: 97.40-97.60 (on pullback)
Stop Loss: 97.15 (below harmonic completion)
Target 1: 98.15 (Daily SMA 20)
Target 2: 98.60 (Gann 2x1 angle)
Target 3: 99.20 (Fibonacci resistance)
Risk-Reward: 1:2.5
Bearish Scenario (Probability: 40%)
Entry Zone: 98.40-98.60 (on failed breakout)
Stop Loss: 99.00 (above key resistance)
Target 1: 97.60 (immediate support)
Target 2: 96.80 (Harmonic target)
Target 3: 96.20 (Major support)
Risk-Reward: 1:2.8
Swing Trading Strategy (4H - Monthly Charts)
Primary Long Setup:
Accumulation Zone: 96.50-97.50
Confirmation: Break above 98.80 with volume
Swing Target 1: 100.20 (SMA 200)
Swing Target 2: 102.50 (61.8% retracement)
Ultimate Target: 105.00 (2025 high retest)
Stop Loss: Below 96.20
Position Sizing: 2% risk per trade
Time Horizon: 4-8 weeks
Alternative Short Setup:
Entry Condition: Failure at 99.50 resistance
Confirmation: Break below 97.00 support
Target 1: 95.50 (2024 low)
Target 2: 93.80 (Extended projection)
Stop Loss: Above 100.00
Time Horizon: 6-10 weeks
Weekly Trading Plan (September 2-6, 2025)
Monday-Tuesday: Consolidation Expected
Range: 97.20-98.40
Strategy: Range trading, fade extremes
Key Events: Watch for volume expansion
Wednesday-Thursday: Potential Breakout
Catalyst: Economic data releases
Scenarios: Break above 98.60 (bullish) or below 97.00 (bearish)
Strategy: Breakout trading with confirmation
Friday: Trend Continuation
Focus: Weekly close positioning
Strategy: Hold winners, cut losers
Risk Management: Reduce position sizes before weekend
Risk Management Framework
Position Sizing Rules:
Intraday: Maximum 1% risk per trade
Swing: Maximum 2% risk per trade
Portfolio: Total DXY exposure not exceeding 5%
Stop Loss Guidelines:
Intraday: 25-30 pips maximum
Swing: 80-120 pips based on volatility
Time-based: Exit if no progress in 5 trading days
Profit Taking Strategy:
Scale out: 50% at first target, 30% at second, 20% runner
Trailing stops: Implement after 1:1 risk-reward achieved
Weekend rule: Close 70% of intraday positions before Friday close
Market Psychology & Sentiment
Current Sentiment Indicators:
COT Data: Non-commercial traders reducing bearish bets
Options Flow: Put-call ratio normalizing from extreme levels
Technical Sentiment: Oversold conditions with emerging reversal signals
Psychological Levels:
98.00: Round number resistance (psychological barrier)
100.00: Major psychological milestone
95.00: Critical psychological support
External Factors & Market Context
Geopolitical Considerations:
- Federal Reserve policy stance monitoring required
- Global economic data impacts (ECB, BOJ decisions)
- Geopolitical tensions affecting safe-haven demand
Economic Calendar Watch:
- NFP data (First Friday of month)
- Fed speakers and policy minutes
- Inflation data releases
- Global PMI readings
Advanced Pattern Alerts
Bull Trap Warning:
Setup: False break above 99.00 followed by immediate reversal
Confirmation: Heavy volume on break, light volume on decline
Response: Wait for 4H close below 98.20 before shorting
Bear Trap Alert:
Setup: False break below 96.80 with quick recovery
Confirmation: Immediate buying pressure and volume surge
Response: Long entry on return above 97.20 with tight stops
Technology Integration
Automated Alerts Setup:
1. Price Alerts: 96.80, 97.50, 98.60, 99.20
2. RSI Alerts: <30 (oversold), >70 (overbought)
3. Volume Alerts: 150% above 20-day average
4. Pattern Alerts: Harmonic completion, Elliott Wave targets
Trading Platform Integration:
TradingView: Custom indicator stack with all mentioned tools
MT4/MT5: Expert Advisor for automated entries
Risk Management: Position sizing calculators
Conclusion & Forecast Summary
The DXY Dollar Index stands at a critical technical juncture with multiple analytical frameworks suggesting a potential reversal from current levels. The convergence of Elliott Wave completion zones, harmonic pattern targets, and Wyckoff accumulation signals creates a compelling risk-reward setup for both intraday and swing traders.
Primary Scenario (65% probability): Consolidation between 96.80-98.60 followed by breakout to 100.20+ levels over the next 4-6 weeks.
Alternative Scenario (35% probability): Failed recovery leading to extended decline toward 95.50-94.00 zone.
Trading Bias: Cautiously bullish with defensive positioning until confirmation above 98.80 resistance cluster.
Key Success Factors:
- Strict adherence to risk management protocols
- Multiple timeframe confirmation before major position increases
- Continuous monitoring of Federal Reserve policy developments
- Adaptation to changing market structure and volatility conditions
---
*This analysis incorporates advanced technical methodologies including Elliott Wave Theory, Harmonic Patterns, Wyckoff Analysis, Gann Theory, and Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, combined with traditional indicators and market structure analysis. All price targets and support/resistance levels are derived from mathematical relationships and historical price behavior patterns.*
Risk Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. All trading involves substantial risk of loss. This analysis is for educational purposes and should not be considered as financial advice. Traders should conduct their own analysis and consider their risk tolerance before making trading decisions.
Title: USDX 4H — expectations vs realityThe dollar index once again finds itself in a position where heroic posture doesn’t match reality. Price is capped at 97.85 right at the 0.382 Fibonacci level and every move higher quickly fades like a spark in the rain. If the breakout fails the road towards 97.24 and 96.90 seems far more realistic since the 0.618 retracement and demand zone are located there.
Moving averages are pressing from above, volumes don’t support the bulls and technically the setup favors weakness rather than strength.
Watching USD behavior every dip in gold silver euro and pound becomes a clear swing trading buy opportunity.
Fundamentally the dollar is also under pressure as markets expect a dovish Fed, Treasury yields stay weak and risk appetite drives capital into other assets. In the end the greenback looks more like a tired runner than a sprinter ready to race.
DXY Possible sell on pullback!Back to back 3 weekly pin bar on DXY with series of lower high's putting pressure on the weekly support level. From the Monthly, it is a long term bear market, after the previous monthly pullback, price started to continue to drop which signals potential new impulse on the monthly. As the monthly close, the price is on the intraday support with potential for initial bounce. As weekly market is creating series of higher low, there is a possibility of 50% pullback and liquidity grab to potentially break the weekly support.
This shit is gonna tank nephewSeriously the european central bank is pooling liquidity together to soften the liquidation blows as usd liquidity dries up and the US is letting the money supply be multiplied with the new incoming stablecoin issuance shit is a movie twin
DXY Trust and PatientPatient is a key
Flip the chart then we will see the pattern
Everything is on the chart
Goodluck to all of us
Non-Farm Employment ChangeHonestly, today it’s hard to make any solid analysis because of the major news that’s about to be released. That news will definitely create a big candle and make all our analyses look fake.
In situations like this — right before news time and on the last day of the market — taking a position isn’t really logical, unless we open a 50/50 trade with risk management and just bet on whether the news goes in our favor or against us. To be honest, I don’t like these kinds of trades that feel like flipping a coin. I prefer to stay on the sidelines during the news and wait until next week, once the chart finds its direction, and then go with the trend.
DXY Strategy Unlocked — Will Bulls Control the Next Swing?⚡ US Dollar Index (DXY) Swing/Day Trade Setup ⚡
💹 Asset: DXY (US Dollar Index)
📈 Plan: Bullish — Pending Order Strategy
📊 US Dollar Index (DXY) Real-Time Data
Daily Change: +0.55 (+0.56%)
Day's Range: 97.62 – 98.60
52-Week Range: 96.38 – 110.18
🔔 Trade Setup (Thief Plan)
Breakout Entry: 98.800 ⚡ (Set TradingView alarm to catch the move in real time)
Stop Loss: “Thief SL” @ 24,000.0 (only after breakout confirmation).
📝 Adjust your SL based on your strategy & risk appetite, Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s).
Target: Resistance/overbought zone at 100.20
🎩 Escape target: 100.000 (take profits before market flips).
😰 Fear & Greed Sentiment
Index Level: 64 (Greed)
Market Mood: Moderately greedy, driven by:
📉 Net new 52-week highs vs. lows (bullish)
📊 VIX near averages (neutral)
🛡️ Bonds underperforming stocks (risk-on)
📈 Junk bond demand narrowing spreads (greed signal)
🌍 Fundamental & Macro Score
Fed Rate Cut Probability: 90% (Sept 18 FOMC, 25 bps cut expected)
Key Drivers:
✅ Labor Data: NFP (Sept 5) is crucial for direction.
⚠️ Trade Policy: Court ruled Trump tariffs illegal (appeal pending).
⬇️ Consumer Confidence: Michigan Index at 3-month low (58.2).
⬆️ ISM Manufacturing: Ahead of release, possible USD support.
Safe-Haven Demand: Geopolitical tensions supporting USD.
🐂 Overall Market Outlook Score
Bullish (Long): 60%
Bearish (Short): 40%
Bias: Short-term bullish as long as 97.60 holds.
USD rebound + bond yield strength + equity weakness backing USD.
⚠️ Risk: Break below 97.60 → next target 96.55 (bearish).
💡 Key Takeaways
🎯 NFP Report (Sept 5) = decisive catalyst.
⚖️ Fed debates + trade policy = medium-term uncertainty.
📉 Breakout above 98.80 is the key to bullish continuation.
🔍 Related Markets to Watch
FX:EURUSD
FX:GBPUSD
FX:USDJPY
OANDA:XAUUSD
CAPITALCOM:US30
✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!”
#DXY #USD #DollarIndex #Forex #DayTrading #SwingTrading #BreakoutStrategy #ThiefTrader #TradingSetup
DXY Intraday Overview- US Dollar Index (DXY) breached the symmetrical triangle downwards and sustained downwards.
- It indicates that sellers are still strong, hence the structure remains downwards.
🔽 If the immediate support level of 97.80 (fib level 0.786) is broken again, then the price will continue its fall to the next support zone between 97.56 - 97.50
🔼 However, if the price manages to recover and break through the resistance level of 97.90, we can expect a further rise to the level of 98.00.
DXY | 1SPT directional sentiment (SMC)“DXY moving like it just clocked in for a Monday shift 🥱📉… got smacked with that Friday LQC and now stumbling down to 97.100 like it’s chasing a Black Friday discount 🛒. Daily bias still bearish, 4H looking weak, and on the 1H the bulls tryna flex but only after sweeping some liquidity 🐂➡️🚪.
If price taps back into that chef’s POI kitchen 🍳 and fails to hold, the bears finna drag this straight to the basement 📉🐻. Until then, we vibin’ in discount land waiting for confirmation signals. This POI remains the make-or-break zone 🧩 heading into the next sessions.”**
Dollar Index - How Low Can We Really Go?The U.S. dollar is having the kind of year that makes you check if someone switched its medication — down about 10% so far in 2025, its worst showing since Richard Nixon murdered the gold standard.
Momentum traders had a field day this week with low resistance from 98.100 to 97.500 within one trading session.
This draw towards sell side liquidity was covered in the previous analysis and if you participated in the short play this week, you should be proud of yourself!
GBPUSD and EURUSD (the only 2 FX pairs I track) rallied on dollar weakness, targeting premium arrays on the 1-hour timeframe.
Although my overall bias for dollar index is bearish which will provide risk on scenarios, it does not mean every single week will print limit down. Retracements are expected. For this reason, I am playing it safe by being neutral.
DXY WILL GO UP|LONG|
✅DXY fell again to retest
The support of 97.600
But it is a strong key level
So I think that there is a high chance
That we will see a bullish
Rebound and a move up
LONG🚀
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DXY | Major Cycle Peak – Is the Dollar Losing Its Grip?The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) appears to be following a well-defined historical cycle, marking major peaks approximately every 15–20 years. If history repeats, the 2022 peak near 114 could signal the beginning of a multi-year dollar decline, impacting global markets, commodities, and currency pairs like EUR/USD.
Historical Peaks & Reversals
Examining past DXY cycles, we see:
969 Peak (~120): Followed by a prolonged decline into the 1970s.
1985 Peak (~165): Marked by the Plaza Accord, triggering a sharp dollar downtrend.
2001 Peak (~120): Led to a multi-year decline as the Fed shifted policies.
2022 Peak (~114): The most recent high—could it mark the next major reversal?
Each peak historically aligns with aggressive Fed tightening cycles, followed by a shift towards easing policies, leading to a weaker dollar. With U.S. interest rates expected to plateau or decline, this pattern suggests a potential long-term bearish trend for the dollar.
Implications of a Weaker Dollar
Bullish for EUR/USD – A declining DXY typically strengthens the euro.
Boost for Commodities – Gold, oil, and other dollar-denominated assets could rally.
Stronger Emerging Markets – A softer dollar eases financial conditions globally.
With DXY showing signs of a historical cycle peak, investors and traders should watch for confirmation of a multi-year downtrend, potentially reshaping global markets.
Bullish Bounce off Key Support?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot and oculd bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 97.77
1st Support: 97.17
1st Resistance: 98.74
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Dollar Index Surges:Bullish Momentum Sparks New OpportunitiesThe DXY Dollar Index Futures kicked off the new week with a strong bullish candle, signaling renewed upward momentum. According to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data, non-commercial traders are reducing their bearish bets, indicating a shift in market sentiment. Meanwhile, commercial traders are holding positions at levels not seen since 2021, suggesting confidence in the dollar’s strength. Retail traders, on the other hand, continue to push against the trend, maintaining bearish pressure. Recently, the price retested a key demand zone at the end of last week, which could present a strategic buy opportunity at a discounted level. What are your thoughts on this setup?
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DXY LongThe dxy index is anticipated to climb from 97.4, supported by the confirmation of the Shark harmonic pattern, which signals strong bullish momentum.
