USD Working Strongest Month Since April 2022After a decisive sell-off ran for most of the first-half of the year, USD bulls have stepped up in July and DXY is currently up 3.3% for the month.
That's the strongest monthly outing in the currency since April of 2022- and that's just after the Fed had started their rate hike campaign that year. It led into a massive rally that ran through September as the USD set fresh 20-year highs.
The question now is one of continuation, and motive seems to be fairly clear. I've outlined the technical backdrop as this shift has taken place over the past month, as the Dollar held a higher-low last week and that drove into a higher-high this week.
There's likely some short squeezing contributing to the rally but with U.S. data remaining strong, and inflation on the way back up, the rate cuts that markets had priced-in back in March and April for 2025 are now in question.
This brings attention to the next major item - with Non-farm Payrolls tomorrow morning.
On a short-term basis the USD move has already started to show overbought conditions on the four-hour chart, and daily RSI is getting close to the 70-level. So perhaps ideal would be a soft report tomorrow at which point a pullback could show. It's from that that we can see whether bulls will come in to defend higher-lows, and there's now support potential at prior resistance of 99.40 in DXY.
If we do see a strong report, the 100 level is the spot for bulls to reckon with and at that point, we may be looking at an overbought RSI scenario on the daily chart - which doesn't necessarily preclude bullish continuation although it will make it more difficult to chase topside breakouts. - js
